Dealers rejoice as car sales stabilise

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The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) has released new car sales data for October, which revealed that sales have finally stabilised:

Although annual sales have still declined for 31 consecutive months, the pace of decline has clearly halted.

Specifically, there were 895,088 new cars sold in Australia in the year to October 2020. This was down 16.8% from the same period in 2019 and down 25.5% from the March 2018 peak (1,201,309).

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In fact, the last time new car sales were this low was October 2003 when Australia’s population was about 6 million (30%) smaller.

Commenting on the results, FCAI’s CEO Tony Weber expressed pure relief:

“After a very challenging year, we are seeing ‘green shoots’ in the Australian new vehicle market. Every state and territory except Victoria and Tasmania have seen significant growth and, given the circumstances, Victoria’s result is seen as encouraging,” Mr Weber said…

“These results mark the 31st month of decreasing sales for the industry, which has experienced a series of financial and market challenges during the period.

“However, the green shoots that we are seeing in October give us great hope that we may begin to see further recovery during the coming months.

“Nationally, the state of industry operations is returning to normal as COVID-19 restrictions ease. Additionally, Government initiatives such as a constructive budget that included the instant asset write off, along with more accessible finance for consumers, is also acting as a welcome stimulus for the industry.

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Car imports have also rebounded after plunging during the height of the COVID lockdown:

However, in annual terms car imports, like sales, were still down around 23% from their April 2018 peak:

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Car dealerships are by no means out of the woods. But at least the long plunge in sales might have bottomed.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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