With last week’s release of population growth data for the September quarter, it is once again time to examine how Australia’s dwelling supply is tracking against population growth, as projected in the 2020 federal budget.
The below charts track the above population projections against the latest available quarterly dwelling construction data, specifically:
- Dwelling approvals to September 2020;
- Dwelling commencements to June 2020; and
- Dwelling completions to June 2020.
First, below is the national picture, with annual population growth forecast to crater to just 50,000 in March quarter 2021 versus projected dwelling completions of around 180,000 dwellings:
Next we have NSW where population is forecast to decline by 2,000 in the year to June 2021 versus forecast dwelling completions of around 50,000:
Next is Victoria where annual population growth is forecast to bottom at 13,000 in June 2021 versus forecast dwelling completions of around 60,000:
Next is QLD where annual population growth will crater to 33,000 in June 2021 versus forecast dwelling completions of around 30,000:
Next is WA where annual population growth is forecast to bottom at 10,000 in June 2021 versus forecast dwelling completions of around 14,000:
Finally, SA’s annual population growth is projected to crater to 1000 in June 2021 versus dwelling construction of around 10,000:
Australia’s property market is clearly facing a significant housing oversupply with the migrant epicentres of Victoria (Melbourne) and NSW (Sydney) facing the biggest gluts.
This ensures that rental vacancies will continue to rise:
And rents will continue to fall, with apartments most impacted:
Great news for renters.