Australian dollar leaps on another vaccine

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Nassim Taleb annihilates Shitcoin

DXY was down last night:

The Australian dollar is uber-bid once more:

Oil was firm and gold weak in the circumstances:

Metals are in heaven:

Miners to the moon!

EM stocks to the moon!

Junk is fine:

US yields lifted:

Stocks too:

Via the ABC:

US drug manufacturer Moderna has released data that shows its experimental COVID-19 vaccine was 94.5 percent effective, based on interim data from a late-stage trial.

Moderna’s interim analysis was based on 95 infections among trial participants who received either a placebo or the vaccine. Its findings were not published in a peer-reviewed journal paper.

Of those, only five infections occurred in those who received the vaccine, which is administered in two shots 28 days apart.

This makes the company the second US manufacturer to report results that far exceed expectations, following Pfizer’s announcement of promising vaccine test results last week.

That’s pretty much all she wrote for markets. The rest is a simple falling DXY triggering the usual commodity and AUD bid.

It’s an old if useless habit to record the risks so humour me. Europe is getting on top of the virus as it runs wild in the US:

The entire Atlantic economy is shutting down one blow at a time with the US still ahead as even recalcitrant states see hospitals overwhelmed:

That’s bullish because it means more stimulus, except that there isn’t any fiscal in the US and Europe has reached an impasse as well.

But that’s still bullish because central banks will come to the rescue and, conducted by fakeflation maestro Goldman Sachs, DXY is going tumble next year:

Suspended capitalism at work. How it will be restored is a mystery. Perhaps with a very short cycle and recession.

So, I agree that DXY is going to fall next year and that is going to pressure commodities and the AUD higher at the margin. However, China is going to slow and real demand for dirt soften so iron ore especially I see as weak. This will likely be accompanied by a topping CNY. Australia’s Chinese decoupling will continue as well.

At some point, these things will matter again so I do not see the Australian dollar shooting to the moon in 2021.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      Welcome to “Who’s Reality Is It Anyway?” where the points aren’t real and the facts don’t matter.

    • Fingers crossed these vaccines fail or have severe side effects so we can go back to apocalyptic predictions and howling angrily at the moon.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      The conspiracy theories and denial are reminiscent of Catholic Catechism. They have an ardent religiosity.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Well said Arthur. Neither is scientific and facts are irrelevant, both irreverent in the eyes of the opposition.

      • Indeed. But there are plenty of other more contemporary beliefs that smack of the same — like central bankers’ unshakeable belief in their ‘models’ and the theories that back them up … among many others …

      • No doubt. But it’s this combination of exuberance and denial that is whittling away at the planet we depend on to stay alive. Oh the paradox.

      • The reason for this optimism is the belief by the citizenry that the PTB will ride to the rescue and save them every time.

        One day, those same citizens will wake up and find that it is no longer in the power of the authorities to save them. That’s when the scheise will really hit the fan.

      • That’s an, er… unique… take on insisting the thing you’re dying of isn’t real because your cult leader told you it’s fake.

    • Global HEATING – Nice, sounds better than warming, more like hell 😉
      Hopefully Davos man comes out with that rumoured new deal late Jan……. Most will have little choice but to play along to any tune that’s sung once in place, as globalists know. If it’s to happen, preferably it’s something with substance & more effective than tradeable carbon credits that will only embiggen ticket clippers waistlines.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Heating, now that’s something Melbourne could use to bring back the exodus of ex pats.

        • I don’t know how you’re house hunting up the coast is going Boom, but down here the sale signs don’t even get the chance to stand overnight before a sold sticker’s slapped on them, in a tight market. And that’s before those Vics are Officially allowed back in. Plenty of strange numberplates & impatient driving have locals questioning that “Official” bit.

      • Let’s go all out and call it Terracide, make aiding terracide a crime, and F the lot of them!