See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:
DXY was stable Friday night:
The Australian dollar fell a touch:
Oil and gold both rose:
Metals are off to the races:
Miners were firm:
EM stocks too:
Junk was fine:
Stocks fell again:
The virus is still the story. In Europe it is now declining but has multiple weeks of lockdown to go:
In the US we have months of tightening ahead as cases continue to spread through a too open economy and deaths begin the grisly catch-up:
Plus, fast approaching is a fiscal cliff of immense proportions, from BofA:
• Many pandemic-aid programs in the CARES Act are set to expire at the end of the year without action from Congress.
• The expiration of federal UI programs—PUA and PEUC—alone could be a drag of 1.5pp in 1Q. Cutoff of other provisions will be additional headwinds.
• We expect Congress to pass another package of $500bn-$1tn in early 1Q which should offset the drag and support growth into 2Q.
Some charts. The cliff:
Just as the employment recovery stalls:
And more need the dole:
Let’s cut some other stuff too:
The impact will be big:
But, of course, this comes after:
I am still looking for short-term market weakness to get longer value and cyclicals for the recovery afterwards.
The same dynamic applies to the Australian dollar.