COVID-19 has had a major negative impact on net internal migration into the capital cities, driven by Melbourne.
According to data released yesterday by the ABS, “the net loss of people through internal migration for the capital cities in the June 2020 quarter (-10,500) was the largest quarterly net loss since this series commenced in 2001”.
This loss was driven by Melbourne, whose “net loss (-8,000) was its largest quarterly net loss on record”.
At the state level, both NSW (-3,955) and VIC (-3,042) recorded heavy losses of people in the June quarter, most of whom relocated to QLD (+6,750):
Victoria recorded the largest change in net migration, decreasing from +590 people in the previous quarter to -3,042 in the June 2020 quarter. It was also a sharp (~5,500) turnaround from the net gain of 2,436 people in June 2019 quarter.
It was the first net loss for VIC since the June 2008 quarter (-600 people) and the largest quarterly loss since March 1996 (-3,200).
I expect Melbourne to continue to suffer negative net internal migration as people flee the city’s sagging economy following the poor handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Melbourne’s staring at a re-run of the early-1990s.