Via RealClear some movement to the incumbent at the headline:
Battlegrounds not so much:
Betting still all over the joint:
No gap closure at FiveThirtyEight:
An embarrassingly Trump worshipping Zero Hedge makes a big deal of registrations:
Last week, we published an article detailing a warning from JPMorgan’s top quant Marko Kolanvoci to all those expecting a landslide Biden win (and by extension Blue Sweep) in which he showed the recent changes in voter registration data and their possible implication for state outcomes. In a nutshell, the JPM strategist found that there had been a sizable increase in Republican voter registrations in key battleground states compared to only modest increases in Democrat registrations…
… and also observed that the change in D-R (Democrats less Republicans) registrations “highly correlates with the subsequent change in D-R voting outcomes.”
We summarized that if Kolanovic’s hypothesis is accurate, the change in voter registration data shown above would immediately invalidate all polls such as that most popular one from Real Clear Politics showing Biden sweeping across the Battleground states. In fact, we concluded that while he does not say it, “the implication from the Kolanovic analysis is that Trump may well end up winning the critical trio of Pennsylvania (20 Electoral votes), Florida (29 votes) and North Carolina (15 votes).” That said, Kolanovic hedged by saying that changes in voter registration was only one variable in determining the election outcome, and “these results should not be taken as a prediction of state election outcomes.”
Fast forward to today when the JPM quant lays out another variable which also suggests that Trump’s odds of victory are far higher than conventional (and flawed as the 2016 election showed) polling would imply.
In a report published this morning, Kolanovic presents a Twitter sentiment analysis on the US election and compares it with the traditional polling data. The top level data is presented in the chart below: it shows the Biden – Trump support at the national level based on QuantCube Social Media (Twitter) Analytics, and compares it to polling averages from RealClearPolitics.
Commenting on the data, Kolanovic says that when looking at the evolution of social media sentiment, one sees that “Biden’s lead over Trump widened in September (possibly as a result of the first debate, market weakness, and COVID developments). The sentiment bottomed with the president’s COVID diagnosis but started meaningfully recovering since then.” The quant also notes that “social media sentiment appears to be a leading indicator of the polling average. Therefore, all else equal, one could expect the polls to tighten in the near future.”
Who knows? Maybe Trump is surging ahead and all polls are wrong. Or, maybe Trump’s followers now have derangement syndrome. FiveThirtyEight hoses it off:
Party registration is often a lagging indicator
A voter’s party registration is a strong indicator of who they’ll support, but it’s not a guarantee. In fact, many voters registered with one party have actually been voting for the other party in recent elections but haven’t necessarily switched their registration to reflect the party they actually support.
My view remains that this election is really only about one thing. This:
And given deaths, too, are about to surge, I can’t see how that will benefit El Trumpo over the last two weeks of campaigning.
Onward to today’s debate with the Trump mute button!