This is not your grandfather’s China property boom

Not at all. Via NBS, new home prices up 0.34% in September and 4.6% over the year:

45 out of 70 cities rose in real terms which is not your grandfather’s property boom by a long way:

The demographic spread was unchanged with third-tier cities leading. Top tiers are soft:

This is weak stuff for Chinese property. Combined with other recent soft signals, including sales and starts, I wonder if this baby isn’t headed for stagnation rather than any sort of blowoff.

The bear case for iron ore strengthening.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

  1. Chinese property prices are still batsh1t crazy by any measure. Certainly ours look sensible by comparison.

  2. China has lot more than property to worry about, Fresh food shortages, grain and swine hit, agricultural areas hit with flooding, dam will break sooner than later. Global famine 2022 to 2027 or so.