This is not your grandfather’s China property boom

David Llewellyn-Smith

Wednesday, 21 October 2020

Not at all. Via NBS, new home prices up 0.34% in September and 4.6% over the year:

45 out of 70 cities rose in real terms which is not your grandfather’s property boom by a long way:

The demographic spread was unchanged with third-tier cities leading. Top tiers are soft:

This is weak stuff for Chinese property. Combined with other recent soft signals, including sales and starts, I wonder if this baby isn’t headed for stagnation rather than any sort of blowoff.

The bear case for iron ore strengthening.

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.