The great vaccine hope wanes some more

A few more charts today on the waning hope of the great vaccine cure for COVID-19. Availability is inexorably being pushed out:

Take-up is going to be abysmal:

But the US had better give it out to the elderly!

I remain of the view that treatments and lightning-fast tests offer greater hope for economic recovery. They are easily deployed and instantly change the profile of personal fear for the virus.

Political pressure to rush the scientific process has demand near killed the vaccines before they even get launched.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


        • MSM is reporting the Great Barrington declaration, most negatively with most highlighting the declaration lacks any concrete plans on how you can ‘focus protection on vulnerable groups and remain open. Other critics point to the lived reality that most western economies are structurally weak in this regard as the caring professions are under resourced and under appreciated, with high casualisation, job insecurity, and participants working across many sites to achieve a livable(ish) wage.

          If we add in our own data from hellbourne we see that these workers have a tendency to be in larger family groups, and in lower socio economic bands meaning their aggregrate family risk is higher as they have more household contacts than a middle class family able to wfh and typically lower family sizes.

          In short its a terrific idea but naïve to think we can pull it off. Maybe if we hadn’t destroyed the living standards of the working classes for 50 years, maybe.

          • Very unfortunate considering the cost of implementing something like this would likely be much less than the overall cost to society of the hotch-potch we have now.

          • 3ris … absolutely agree with you there.
            The idea of focussed protection looks good in theory but well in Melbourne we stuffed up quarantine, not to mention blood tests in quarantine (!!!!), and we are only now starting to get results from contact tracing having improved it from failures in May. Don’t ask us to walk AND chew gum at the same time.

            We are seeing plenty of medical professionals getting infected despite their training and knowing what precautions they need to take, so how can we be confidence that we can practically execute a walled environment for the vulnerable e.g. aged care with the rest of society functioning normally … having had so many failures and deaths in the past 6 months?

            Additionally … yes our knowledge of virus has improved, but it’s not complete … the long covid on younger people is not well understood, for example why do some get it and not others? So I would not be encouraging my children to get covid because I don’t know the consequences for them personally. Additionally if they get it they almost certainly pass it to me and possibly their grandparents, and if we died they would carry the guilt for the rest of their lives. So it’s not just about outcomes for a single individual.

            Additionally we are also getting reports of new mutations of the bug. It may be that a less virulent strain finally sets us free, but at this point we just don’t know and if it has similar effects then it defers herd immunity. Not good for vaccine but really it drives home the point that good hand hygiene and masks will be with us for a long time yet.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      What rubbish! I’d rather believe in the decisions of politicians responding to the chicken sh1t masses that are hyped up by the media than these lowly qualified “scientists”. Same for climate change. I hate scientists!

      Lock. Us. Down! now

      • For sure, One day some will have to answer questions. There is no excess death in EU since May ( and even then it was just slightly above Jan 2017) and they are still instigating a full panic/lockdown psycho.

        Anyway vaccines will most likely not work on the only ones who need it, the very old, very fat or very unheathy/weak.
        I could get the vaccine for myself but I will wait a very very long time before giving it to my kids who have zero risks

        • reusachtigeMEMBER

          Exactly! It’s like the time I somehow unfortunately was in a national park in Tasmania and said “fck this, I aint walking on the boardwalk” and walked through the swamp instead and had some ranger guy scream at me for not respecting the environment because some sh1tty plant was endangered. I said “fck you, how much do you get paid?” That shut the idiot up.

      • Reusable, i was physiology and biochem trained and I have lost respect for scientists as corpratisation and control by grants and govt policy decimated science, the science process. So 60 tp 70% of research so called cant be replicated, let alone the ClimateChange* TM. Issue. True scientists practising it mostly get squashed or ignored by goog and media in general,plus peer review control, plus control by journals so only those who are part of “accredited” groups can publish in journals, So much great science products are suppressed, CSIRO has been steadily defunded for 40 years or more. Financiailisation means influencers have zero comprehension of what it has done or could do for Aus to replace our mineral sales.

    • This approach is predicated on there being a class of society that is not vulnerable. So far while it is overwhelmingly the elderly of frail that are effected, there is no guarantee that they can determine that any particular person is infact not at risk.

      I saw an interesting proposal that was along the lines of isolating the extremely vulnerable, while the rest of us underwent a program of repeated short term lockdowns. As the incubation period between infection and symptoms is 4 days, you have business as usual for 4 days and then 6 days lockdown. Anyone with symptoms during the 6 days off would be required to self isolate. As this shuts down the continual transmission path it also halts the spread, effectively limiting the ability of the virus to replicate long term.

      The problem with this approach is that it relies on humans to participate and as we have seen humans generally have a small percentage who dont like to have their freedoms curbed through beneficial compliance.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Thankfully we have The Guardian to make sure this “initiative” is cancelled by publishing stories with headlines like “Anti-lockdown advocate appears on radio show that has featured Holocaust deniers” and “The pursuit of herd immunity is a folly – so who’s funding this bad science?”

      So these “scientists” are evil for not advocating the media and politician’s Lock. Us. Down! I’m not listening to no hologram deniers!

    • dude, haven’t you heard, they aren’t *real* experts. they don’t know anything. because you know, R0, vaccines, rising cases in Europe, Sweden sucks.

      • I keep forgetting. Of course a bunch of politicians with no qualifications whatsoever, (except the ability to p!ss in everyone’s pockets), would absolutely know better than these upstarts!

  1. The average age of death tells the story. Along with comorbidities. The last figure I saw was an average of 2.6.

    • Every disease has commodities, trying to say COVID didnt kill anyone because all those that dies had something else too is just plain ignorant.

      If someone has diabetes they can live for years, some people who manage it properly live into their 80’s. Give them COVID and they have a higher chance of dying. Does that mean Diabetes killed them? No.

      • Jumping jack flash

        I’d hardly say my father manages his diabetes properly but he’s probably going to make it to 90. Only another 5 years. Lost half a foot. Blind as a bat.

  2. Will be surprised if better treatment becomes available in near to mid term
    Rapid testing may be limited by issues of specificity and sensitivity
    Long covid appears to be a problem and more information re reinfection is becoming available.Would not be a good outcome if reinfection results in a vigilant and deleterious immune response

    • Take it from someone who developed me/cfs from a viral infection in China 20+years ago. You do not want long Covid. It completely and utterly destroyed my life. My life is poorer and lived less fully, except in pain and suffering, in every dimension (having a bad pain day today so excuse the negativity)

      • My concern with long covid is the incidence of in some ways chronic fatigue like symptoms at three months(there are a few differences but you know what I mean).Once the general populace gets a feel for this then it’s shut the door and throw away the key time
        This is also not an influenza virus in fact it has no real prescedent that I have seen.This is going to take years before we have a true capture of where this is going from a medical perspective

        • At least I only have ME/CFS which is debilitating enough. The poor bastards who get Covid have to contend with potential multiple organ damage and dog knows what else in addition to possibly developing me/cfs. Some of them will be able to be diagnosed with me/cfs now as it will have been longer than 6 months. What I dread for them though is the recalcitrance of a large chunk of the medical profession who still refuse to accept that your body can be stuffed up in such a manner as there are f all diagnostic tools and nothing they can pin point it all on. I’m lucky no dr has ever told me this is all in my head and I’m just being lazy, but it happens to a lot of other people. Very few medical systems around the world are set up to properly deal with such under researched, nebulous, complicated but debilitating conditions. In addition no one’s me/cfs seems to be exactly the same as another person’s which makes it harder for the medical profession to deal with.

        • Just got some more mersyndol from the chemist (tried to use my health care card for the first time and it wasn’t covered:( Here’s hoping I can still wake up at 4.20am tomorrow to open the pool!

          • Do hope it works for you and fingers crossed for the pool at that ungodly hour – surely no one swims then? 🙁

        • Pool opens to swimmers at 6am. Staff are there at 5.30am to get it ready for open. Poppy needs a cup of tea before getting behind the wheel of a car hence the 4.20am wake up. Technically it’s a 40 min drive but I’ve been doing it faster (gee it is like the old days before the lowered the limits, but I really need to get moving faster so I’m not risking my licence to get to work on time, it’ll get easier with time).

  3. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    Trump told everyone there was going to be a vaccine before the election! “Operation Warp Speed” he called it!

    At least he consistent with overpromises and underdelivery.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      There is a Russian one, and there is a Chinese one. I doubt anyone in the US will ever take them though..

      • Requires a level of trust in how the vaccine was produced and testing done. Whatever cynicism we have to our own government, there is a basic level of trust that if they say the testing was done, it was done … because if they screw it up, the survivors will vote them out. No such security with Russia and China.

    • To my understanding, the Chinese one is one of the rare old school vaccine, most of the others are using new/untested methods

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        China uses inactived vaccine.(i.e. make the virus inactive then inject it into body). US and UK uses novel genetic engineering. The main reason is not ‘new technology is better’, but ‘new technology can be patented’.

        The Chinese company tasked with making the vaccine initially wanted to charge 1000 Yuan (about $200 AUD) for two doses. The Chinese government told them to lower the price, so they’re now charging 400 Yuan instead ($80 AUD). When it goes into full production it’ll be even lower, and the Chinese government will use the price of vaccine as a tool of diplomacy.

        • That makes sense !
          There are quite few contenders in China, with various tech.But yeah the new methods will need careful testing if they even work

        • I would not use a USA or a U K vaccine. UK vaccine research just did fora 28 year old Brazilian doctor. I think of the 106 Georgians dying from glaxosmithkline hepC research last year, and what it’s seratide has done to me with doctors still trying to get me on it again, getting emotional about it too, ignoring the huge fines it was made to pay in USA. Russian vaccine was rushed through, there was russian concern re that, but it’s out there and will be very obvious if it causes deaths. Or does not protect. I would risk it if forced to take a vaccine. But have my own ideas about how to protect self from it supported by observed information.

    • Reus's largeMEMBER

      Well of course they have a vaccine, they created the virus in a lab so have the tech specs for it, now they have shafted the rest of the world they can roll out the vaccine and play the hero and have everyone bow to them, all part of the grand plan !

      FCUK the CCP !

      • Jumping jack flash


        Who knows what information they have about the virus that everyone else is still trying to work out. Like how to make it inactive, for starters. Wasn’t one research team trying to achieve that with no success?

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        +1 ~10,000 deaths or whatever in chin-ah was collateral damage in creating a pretence.

  4. Win the Electoral College

    There’s no vaccine people will have to take their chances acquiring herd immunity. It’s how every other pandemic ended.

  5. we could start with this.
    The dogs can detect coronavirus in humans five days before they develop symptoms, Anna Hielm-Bjorkman, the University of Helsinki professor who is running the trial, told Reuters news agency.
    “They are very good [at detecting coronavirus]. We come close to 100% sensitivity,” she said.

    Keep the international borders closed.
    Deploy mutts like this to every state airport and we can start to open up on interstate travel.

  6. As soon as it was realised that we can treat patients with boring old oxygen instead of ventilators, that removed the botteneck to the healthcare system, and meant that it would never be overwhelmed (no worse than regular flu seasons which fill ICUs and morgues).

    With the treatments we now have, cheap and simple, there is no justification for lockdown. Just let it rip.

    Meanwhile deaths in Sweden are only 2.4% higher than in 2018, and even that is explained by a very weak flu season in 2019 leaving a lot of ‘dry tinder’.

  7. Better accept the inevitable, Covid 19 will never be eliminated, like the flue short term inoculation treatment, with sickness and deaths. Economies? F…ked for years to come!