Students and tourists stuck near zero

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The ABS yesterday released provisional short-term arrivals and departures data for September, which remains near zero:

All overseas arrivals to Australia in September 2020 (provisional estimates):

  • 16,700 estimated trips, 8,900 of these are Australian citizens
  • 8.3% increase compared to the previous month and a 99.0% decrease compared to the corresponding month of the previous year
  • 7.2% of all arrivals were New Zealand citizens, the largest group apart from Australian citizens returning home
  • 10.3% of all arrivals were those arriving on temporary other visas.
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Arrival numbers crashed across all source nations:

Across all visa groups:

And across all states & territories:

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Departures have also collapsed:

  • 49,800 estimated trips, 11,700 of these are Australian citizens
  • 18.2% decrease compared to the previous month and a 97.2% decrease compared to the corresponding month of the previous year
  • 18.2% of all departures were Chinese citizens
  • 19.7% of all departures were those leaving on temporary other visas.

No wonder the airline industry is dying.

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Finally, international student arrivals continue to collapse, with annual departures down 50% (-312,420) from their January 2020 peak:

Expect the edu-migration industry to ramp up their lobbying to open Australia’s international border to the virus.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.