Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has warned that Australia is facing the lowest population growth in more than 100 years due to the collapse in immigration induced by COVID-19:
“We’re also seeing our population growth go to its lowest level in more than 100 years. And this is a function of immigration slowing. But it’s also a function of a declining fertility rate which reflects the circumstances that the country finds itself in with COVID-19”.
The Treasurer’s warning has been echoed across the media, with some commentators warning that the purported collapse in population growth to century lows will decimate the economy.
As usual, the Treasurer and these commentators are being loose with the facts. While the rate of population growth in percentage terms could fall to century lows, it is likely to remain well above historical levels when measured in actual number terms (chart current to 2019):
It is not the population growth rate in percentage terms that matters for infrastructure, traffic congestion, the environment, or livability but rather the sheer numbers.
Even if Australia’s rate of population growth fell to only 0.8% (the Great Depression low), then Australia’s population would still grow by around 205,000 people a year.
Rather than being a disaster, this lower level of population growth would give Australia the unique opportunity to catch-up on infrastructure investment, which has fallen badly into deficit following 15 years of extreme immigration. It would also encourage the economy to move away from unsustainable ‘dumb’ growth centred around people servicing to actual productivity and export driven growth.
A lower, more sustainable level of population growth is exactly what Australia needs and should be celebrated.
Nothing good comes from crush-loading infrastructure, housing, or the environment. Moreover, the last thing unemployed Australians need is to be competing for scarce jobs against low wage migrants. This will only crush wages even more and decimate Australia’s working class.
