Past time Victoria opened

At MB we’ve been patient with lockdowns but that time has passed. Victoria has contained the virus and it’s time to open up:

Local cases are very small and consistent:

Unknown source cases are tiny:

Based upon NSW experience, total cases should be containable at this level with contact tracing, especially coming into summer:

Manchurian Dan’s targets are obviously too low:

Victoria has had enough time to get ready. The seasonality is good. Open up.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

  1. The Traveling Wilbur

    ABC is reporting Victoria’s cabinet secretary Chris Eccles has resigned!

    What I want to know is which of you’se is responsible for making him? You dirty rotten swine.

    • Political. VIC government basically said that Melbournians would not cop getting lockdown without the rest of the state. To form state government you only need to win your capital city, the rest can just burn.

  2. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Agree. Only thing I would say is have quarentine and contact tracing in place for when cases are in the hundreds per day again, instead of panicing, just manage it with clear messaging to the people. Give the vulnerable sound advice and masks etc. Help old people with grocery delivery etc.

    Next Winter is going to be horrible is my feeling. It will explode again with no vaccine and the masses will not (and should not) have a palate to lock down again.

    The biggest mistake has been the short term panic and knee jerk stage 4 as soon as cases go up. We are living with this thing and mutations of this thing for a long time. The new normal. Open up.

    For transparency, I was and still am 100% in favour of the first lock down. That time should have been used to get quarentine and contact tracing right. THAT is the fail.

  3. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    i doubt any other state would have put up with it for so long, its a combination of chinese inspired police state and a population of snowflakes and vy brants

  4. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13423

    Ioannidis has been doing some great work on this from the beginning.

    Note the following about IFR
    About 10% of the global population may be infected by October 2020. Global infection fatality rate is 0.15‐0.20% (0.03‐0.04% in those 80 yrs.

    So overall IFR is perhaps 2x flu
    But
    1. We have little immunity to this and so a large % of population is vulnerable.
    2. The IFR with COVID is sharply increased with age > 80

    We have come to live with flu. In time, we will do the same with this.
    In the meantime, if you have a large % population > 80, then COVID is bad.

    For patients < 70, IFR is 3-4 in 10,000. A lot of those < 70 who succumb have significant comorbidities that can be easily identified, meaning the risk in fairly healthy people < 70 is even lower.

    So yes, time to open up in Victoria. Summer is the time to face this.
    Shield the elderly with restrictions on RACF. No more poorly trained 3rd world casually employed staff who live in ghettos.

    • Less Woke More BlokeMEMBER

      How will you manage RACF staff?

      Will they quarantine from their families?

      Or will you just hire singles who then mustn’t mix in public?

      • Number of strategies. None of them perfect, but consider them layers of defence which in combination should provide much more robust shielding than before.
        1. Staff can only work at one RACF – no casual moonlighting
        2. Temp screening of staff when they come to work
        3. Could look at rapid COVID testing at start of shift – although that will not be cheap
        4. Cohort residents and staff into teams
        5, Pay staff sufficiently to put some limits on their private activities – will be much cheaper than cost of lockdown
        6. More cleaning and masks

  5. Not sure I agree with this. NSW has cases from unknown community transmission (despite it being small) all across Sydney mainly. A lot of people here I’ve talked to don’t really trust the numbers – there’s a lot to gain by the NSW Govt by under quoting them including keeping business open and getting borders open to other states. Testing rates are quite low compared to a few months ago; so the virus numbers and its spread are probably becoming more unreliable as people lose their fear of the virus. People can only remain viligiant for so long – if people have a sniffle or a cold they probably aren’t bothering to test anymore especially if it means being in lockdown for 14 days on a beautiful Spring day.

    On another note there is also the possibility that the virus will evolve to have lower symptoms in response to the testing strategy (natural selection) – the strains of virus with less symptoms are more likely not to be detected and therefore have a greater chance to spread. Being an RNA virus mutations happen quite rapidly.

      • What I don’t get is, why are we looking at Vic numbers to call for opening up borders?
        What does the “current number of cases” have ANYTHING to do with your ability to open up?
        Instead,
        1) Where is the analysis of the level of contact tracing capabilities and whether that has increased and tightened to a level that allows for opening up the economy?
        2) Where is the analysis of the gaping holes in quarantine security and whether that has been tightened up to allow for opening up?
        So really, let’s face it.. to avoid another debacle and another 700 dead, you really do need to do:
        1) Finish the quarantine inquiry
        2) Implement the recommendations from the inquiry
        3) Pilot those recommendations
        4) THEN open up…
        Agree, this takes WAY too long while everyone just wants a smoking gun to get Dan out of office and open up for a third wave again without fixing anything..
        Just seeing the number at single digits and calling for opening up.. Excellent suggestion /sarc

          • It was also supposed to be there in March – https://www2.health.vic.gov.au/~/media/Health/Files/Collections/Research%20and%20reports/C/COVID-19-pandemic-plan
            But what has been done to uplift it after the second wave?
            a) What % of increase in capacity for contact tracers personnel?
            b) What upgrades in systems or automation support the capability uplift?
            c) What gaps or holes in processes have been tightened to ensure the thing keeps moving like a well oiled machine?
            Concluding in, what is their NEW capacity estimated after the above? .. you know, before contact tracers fall too far behind (excess of a few days) which basically means they have no hope of catching up…
            Or do we just have to believe they’ve solved all the issues with the quarantine even before the inquiry into what went wrong with quarantine is even complete?
            Dan Andrews answers MUST answer to these questions first before he walks the entire state into another inevitable lockdown. They’ve literally had months and months since May when the quarantine was bungled to answer to this.
            Lockdown 3 will not happen. Noone’s got the patience for that. So where are the answers to the above questions?

      • In the last 24 hours you’ve reversed out of your previous house price and lockdown positions

        After having spent months abusing me for holding those same positions you have now adopted

        • I never argued for permanent lockdowns. I argued for them in context of VIC outbreak and against blokes like Creighton demanding no lockdowns EVER.

          Lockdowns are a tool of suppression. As well, NSW did better than feared so it’s appropriate to follow that route.

          Ascribing your own polarised view to me doesn;t help anything.

    • This is what DLS said on his thread “Dan Andrews teeters as right hand man resigns” this morning :
      “This means that when you commit a blunder, the best course of action is to steer into the problem, fess up, apologise, commit to do better, and then move on. Doing so will automatically extinguish opportunities for attack”.

      haha this is for others to practise and does not apply to him what a joke!

      • What mistake? I supported the lockdown until we got ourselves ready to contain the thing. We’ve had a crack at elimination. It’s hasn;t worked. While NSW has done great.

        I’m happy to apologise when I’me wrong but I ain’t.

        As for house prices, yes turned a more bullish over the past MONTH for peripherals. Still bearish SE. Data changed, politics changed. And?

        • Righties regard following data as a sign of weakness. That’s why they take intransigent, doctrinaire positions on issues (e.g. climate, covid etc) and never budge, no matter what evidence is presented. It’s a well known phenomenon in conservatives and there are even some studies describing it.

  6. The lockdown is still in place because DHHS is still in the process of integrating Salesforce. We have literally shut down a State of 6 million because of an IT project.

    • Yep. A few of us have been vilified, insulted, and even called fakes for being wrong. Now mainstream opinion is starting to turn, we will be vilified for being right I guess.

      • We are probably weeks away from a vaccine. Then the problem goes away without 50k dead people. The letting it rip strategy is for psychos who prefer profit to life. Just invest in some weapon manufacturers already.

        • Sweden didn’t have a “let it rip” policy. They had some restrictions and they gave their citizenry accurate advice on how best to avoid infection spread. They did (and admit) they dropped the ball on protecting their oldies in retirement villages. They never trampled civil liberties. Their economy took a hit of course but it was never a binary argument between health and the economy as has been tried to be made on MB.

          Dan has to go. He has ,ade the wrong decision at every step. A short term hard lockdown that was early and went for a couple of weeks may have been appropriate but he missed the boat on that. After we had community spread then a less restrictive lockdown while we got our track and trace and quarantine protocols in place would have been appropriate While at the same time we learn to live with this virus (no school temporarily, WFH where possible, no nightclubs or big gatherings, postpone festivals, limit of 1 person per 4 square meters indoors, max of 10 outdoors, masks in public places,etc.)

          The total knee jerk massive lockdown that drags on indefinitely is totally immoral and has destroyed more quality life years across the 5 odd million people it affected so severely than would have the virus, even accepting that its likely more people would have died with COVID. The government had a responsibility to inform us of the best approach to protect ourselves but we as individuals have the ultimate responsibility to try and keep ourselves alive and we do it every day by making informed decisions. We don’t need or want laws dictating how we must make our every move In life and it should never have been possible in a liberal democracy such as Australia.

          • It is the binary nature of the discussion here which has been alarming- lock me down fanbois vs virus psychos.
            There has been little nuance and almost no consideration of what the ultimate outcome might be especially if an effective vaccine is not forthcoming.
            Interesting to see Saul Eslake quoted in another article regarding Victoria’s heavy handed police actions. Another aspect dismissed derisively by the lock me down brigade.

  7. I don’t know wether to laugh or cry.
    In the meantime while we’re all bickering I see that what was sold as a 2 week lockdown to ‘flatten the curve’ and has since extended to 7 months is now looking like travel bans until 2022 subject to a vaccine being available by 2021.(presumably mandatory if you wish to leave).
    Prison island Australia.

    • ANZ has got itself into a bit of a pickle. Major economic damage. A society sick of lockdowns. No 1st wave to speak of yet.

      Which leader is going to be brave enough to open borders again? Safer to keep kicking the can down the road.

  8. We should actually be locking down harder at this stage to finish the thing off. However with schools back and being a leading source of asymptomatic transmission we may as well open up anything low risk. Just limit mass gathering and go hard on contract tracing. It’s looking like vaccines might be 80-90% effective and we should have them before next winter. So the calculated risk of opening up is better than these half measures we currently have.

    • Have you not noticed that it is obvious that lockdowns do nothing except destroy the economic, mental and physical health of society.
      Have a look at the latest uttering from the WHO and the Great Barrington Declaration for just the latest.
      All this for a virus with a 99.7%survival rate when last year alone 1.5 million people died of TB -and who cares about that or should we all lock down and wear masks for TB.

      • IFR is 0.6-1% for western countries. Lockdowns clearly prevent tens of thousands of deaths and can eliminate the virus. Yep they cause pain which is why it’s stupid to relax them when we have done the hard work. On the other hand lockdowns in poor countries are a disaster. You cannot do them without monetary support. And since the feds are turning off the money supply we may as well give the contact tracers a shot. Just need to limit mass spreading events.

          • Lol you can find an expert in anything. If you lock down early you can eradicate the disease in a reasonable time frame. Once you have a mass outbreak they become less effective because it takes too long. You can support the economy but you can’t resurrect the dead or get brain damaged people back to work. Economy shuts down the same either way. Of course now we know we have a vaccine around the corner, seasonality on our side, and case numbers at contact tracing levels then reopening becomes a viable gamble.

          • “If you lockdown early you can eradicate” then why has that never happened in human history?

          • Mig we eradicated SARS, and we eradicated round 1. If you can keep it below RO 1 it dies out. The tail end is always hard due to these household clusters. If we could get rapid 5min test kits that are just being approved then it would allow for on site screening. Great for hospitals and nursing homes, not to mention border control and contact tracing.

        • It’s almost certainly not that high.

          Australia was estimated to have up to 500,000 cases 2 months back. That figure may not be right, but was the NSW CHO estimate. So it was an educated and informed estimate.

          The USA data is worse. But the CDC data is that non-whites have a far higher mortality. Not clear why, but they do. Will be multiple reasons. That data has been de-emphasised a bit since BLM.

          The Australian figures will be better.

  9. The BystanderMEMBER

    Let’s be honest – the lockdown will end when Andrews thinks it’ll give him an appropriate buffer to weather the relevations from the hotel inquiry. Eccles has just resigned for ‘forgetting’ that he told the Police Commissioner that private security was totally fine to prevent outbreaks, and given he’s the head of the DPC, it’s not that hard to guess who told him to make the call…

  10. And what happens if cases spike again?! While NSW has managed to hold the fort for a while, nothing is guaranteed going forward. Its clear that people are sick of lockdowns; the conversation has to shift to what living with the virus really means. For example, cases might rise, we will do our best to protect the vulnerable and contact trace, but if we fail there is no going back, we have to accept some loss of life. Middle ground measures don’t work – Europe is now stuck – they don’t want to go back into lockdown but are seeing cases hit highs – and throwing all sorts of band-aid solutions up.

    • Vaccines give you an end point. Even with limited quantities you can vaccinate medical and aged care staff, and fence off outbreak etc. If the vaccine is 80-90% as believed we will know before Nov and can take more risk in reopening.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      “living with the virus” still means restrictions/social distancing ect. They get heavier where there is more virus circulating and/or there is no decent test and trace/quarantine system.

      Lockdowns are not some arbritrary thing that one bloke decides to impose.. They are an almost inevitable result of uncontained virus spread. Ie. Societies and systems underpinning them will demand them when things get bad enough.

  11. Without elimination, Victoria will be locked out of the other states. However, a hard lockdown is unable to eliminate it after 2 months, so it’s not going to happen anyway.

    One thing Victoria can do is to turn off the air conditioning in the shopping malls and shops. Heat and humidity kills the virus, but air conditioning creates the perfect condition for them to spread : low temperature, and low humidity, and air being recirculated.

  12. To me this endless bickering is just a massive distraction. Lock down, don’t lock down blah blah blah.
    While all this energy is wasted we drift aimlessly into a police state where you live or have freedom at the whim of a self serving bureaucrat.
    Curfews. Lock downs, travel bans, mandatory masks, police violence against the people. Massive fines etc. and coming soon, a mandatory vaccine.
    All for what?
    IFR .03
    Wake up.