Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Another very mixed day across stock markets in Asia to finish the trading week (and month) with the bounces overnight on Wall Street not translating into anything meaningful. There’s been a co-ordinated bounce against USD, with gold managing a small boost to $1875USD per ounce, but still well below its previously well supported $1900 level:

The Shanghai Composite is stuck with a scratch session so far, down only 0.1% to 3269 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is pausing in its retracement, off a handful of points to 24580. Japanese stock markets are losing ground fast, with the Nikkei 225 off by more than 0.5% to 23190 points as the USDJPY pair reverses all of its  overnight gains to be back below the mid 104 level:

The ASX200 is also stuck with a scratch, down 0.1% to 5956 points as the Australian dollar bounces back to the mid 70.50 level but still below its pre-breakdown point, in line with other undollar risk assets:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are lagging however with the four hourly chart of the S&P showing an inability to get back above the 3300 point “bottom” as volatility gains momentum:

The economic calendar finishes the week – and month – with a couple of whoppers, namely EZ-wide flash GDP prints for the 3Q, and then US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) and the Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Not many trading days left until the US “election” so watch that volatility start to ratchet up….

Have a good weekend and stay safe….

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Comments

  1. Futures and Commodities are pricing Biden win. Futures sinking down while Cu, Ni, Zn.. and even Au (stimulus) moving higher.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      Wait. I thought all the conspiracies were that Biden would be good for wall St ie. They’re backing him. But Trump says HE’S the one thats good for the stock market (but also he’s bad for the elites?). It’s really all very confusing.

      • both will be good for the market. in both scenarios there are winners and losers. if Biden wins all green tech will be up and fossil industry will be cut lose gradually. When the green new deal gets up there will be massive investment in green infrastructure and Cu and Ni will play very important role.
        Also, for all these initiatives to go live someone needs to pay for and therefore there will be massive stimulus that will push price of gold to da moon. We are looking at over $5tn of spending over the years. Perhaps lot more but they don’t say it right away. So gold will be up a lot.
        Cash will be out and digital currencies will be introduced – blockchain but which one. I thought I had the winners but maybe not. Some of these could be backed by gold, who knows.

        • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

          Interesting thoughts, thanks Niko. Gold definitely the most obvious medium term trade around.

          May you pick more winners than losers..

    • You’re both braver and more informed than me!

      I dumped REE and TTM today for losses, as I didn’t like where the general market looked like it would go in the short-term…I think…

      • agree.. in WSA, SFR, IGO and any goldie (miners not explorers) it will not matter much as all of them will be up in six months so it does not make sense to sell at a loss.
        From explorers I only hold RTR and PXX and both are for longer term (12 months) so it will not matter again so did not want to sell at a loss as well. Both RTR and PXX are late with releasing assays as all LABs are behind so I ended up holding larger stakes than I would like – plan was to hold some parcels for longer but not as large.
        Too late now..
        Just got back from my walk and futures are reall bad.. The establishment left the best for last. Right before the elections a market crash. Everything is done to make sure Trump loses. Will be funny if he wins.

        Today I did something really brave though. I bought few CSS despite knowing they will fall further. But very small stake so I can buy some more on Monday of next few days..
        They produce seaffood (kingfish premier food) and up until recently their main market was premier restaurants around the world. Covid forced them into partnership with golobal distributor to sell their products into supermarkets. I can’t see how these guys will not go bakc into profit real fast. The way things are going there will be food shortages and everyone with money will be after their product.

        WSA news was bad but not as bad as the market made it to be. I would have hurt if they are explorer and produced poor results from their drilling campaign. Ni prices will be 20% up this time next year and 20% the year after. If Biden wins clean Ni prices will be 20% up the day after the elections.
        At this price WSA are alse takeover target and I am sure now IGO and SFR are running the ruler over them. They have the best quality Ni that battery manufactueres need. simples.

    • Ukraine fnMEMBER

      WSA doing a bit of digging for Ni around my neck of the woods ( JV with Iluka) ,guidance wasn’t the best but hope you gentlemen are not to much down. Another one to keep an eye on ADN/MEP Kaolin deposit that looks the goods for nano tech applications.

      • Don’t we all?

        However there is the possibility that some junior Aussie miners can actually be turned around. I’ve got 3 that are in the process of doing it. 1 looks like it’ll manage that process successfully, the jury is out on the other twoas there not as far advanced in the process

  2. It’s all so predictable.

    “Some of the [Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements’s] recommendations included:
    • Introducing powers to declare a national state of emergency”

    When has a Commonwealth Royal Commission ever NOT concluded that the Commonwealth should have more power?

    The thought of a centralised power to declare a state of emergency is truly horrifying.

    Such powers granted for the best of reasons end up being used for the worst.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichstag_Fire_Decree

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emergency_(India)

  3. Arthur Schopenhauer

    BP to shut Kwinana Refinery. Three left in the country.

    We don’t have a Government. We have a nihilistic cult intent on destroying the country.

    Merde.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Two giga-sized battery factories would do the job. There’s at least a 5 year time frame, the there is not enough electricity to power even one.

    • I was engineer for the consrruction of the major upgrades to that refinery
      Boomer was somewhere there at that time as well
      but, it is time expired, and
      Exxon is cutting 1,900 US jobs as oil prices crumble again

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Yeah, all the refineries are on their last legs. You’d think it was strategically important… 😔

    • Arthur – I noticed in the ABC article that the reporter opened with BP closing the refinery and then referencing that it was a major mining company. In what world does a media major not know that there is a really big mining company called BHP and a really big, but totally unrelated, oil company called BP. To expect that reporter to then put together an article of any insight is expecting far too much. Also, if this current government was not so dull they would be partnering in some fashion with the remaining refineries as a matter of national security.

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        Wow… That is suprising. Hell, most folks know “British Petroleum” vs “Broken Hill Proprietary” – it ain’t hard! 🙂

        • Ahhh, not if they’re under 40. Everything is a brand on a big sign now. That’s all they know.

      • they also say bulwer island or lytton in brisbane is next, anpther 600 odd jobs
        I worked on both of them, they are well time expired, including the tank farms
        add Incitec plant at gibson island.

          • Cant risk the money
            All that plant in the off shore oil for WA was made in Korea and floated over
            same for the modules at gladstone
            we dont have the skills anymore to build those plants
            houses and holes was the mantra.

            Same for the NCM power station at Lihir??

        • I was at Lytton in 2017, they were spending some serious dollars on work crews doing replacement/maintenance, drive past everyday now and looks exactly like it did before the maintenance – not sure if I’m just not seeing the improvement or if all that work was a light bandaid

          • Major items of plant at both those bne refineries, and incitec will be at or under their minimum wall thickness
            they will be unsafe to operate
            .

    • Lots of small businesses and contractors in addition to the 600 is going to hurt. I remember doing a project on the kurnell refinery and there is constant maintenance work with tradies and technitians hired to check plumbing, power etc.. For a lot of them it was their bread and butter

    • Welp, mah dude, why don’t you find yourself a bolt hole and plan to fsck off on short notice when the next lockdown happens? Hmm?

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        That reasoning will be behind the amount of properties sold in the country sight unseen.

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          Can confirm that in Victoria that Venus Bay is in high demand. Anything on the market is selling (and for a lot more than it was 12 months ago!)

        • You know I never predicted a pandemic but I did predict a demand for rural property to become more desirable. I thought it would be global warming making people want something more sustainable so they could collect rain water, grow veggies and escape the rat race / congestion, but instead it was because they wanted to escape the plague and once free of the inner city shackles realised life was better outside the metro suck holes ..

          Still some love the prison they make for themselves. Rushing to buy cheap knicknacks from Kmart etc.. can’t fix stupid I suppose ..

          • chuckmuscleMEMBER

            Right on. Made the move, best decision ever.
            Work 7 hours a day for the man from home, tinker in my shed and garden the rest of the time.
            Ventured to Kmart for some sh1t I can’t make like bins, seriously depressing.
            Looking forward to experimenting with home brew, spirits and the raging fire pit in winter…

          • Yeah I am looking to put a fire pit down the back of the yard. It was unused dead space and I’ve been clearing it up and cutting back dead trees / bushes etc… Got some planter boxes down there etc.. I’m fortunate that I get to walk around a semi rural area, but am close to Eastland in Ringwood if I really need it.

            But so far I haven’t really ventured that way. Too depressing. I hear the roads are crazy again. But I haven’t been out.

          • While I totally agree with you Gav, I’m an exception lol.

            I had to leave my hometown on the sunshine coast partially because of lack of work but mostly because of lack of affordable rentals that weren’t share housing. Now, for the price of a room on the coast, I’ve got a pretty big flat to myself in Brisbane with a garden and double carport. Just harvested the first batch of tomatoes, beans/lettuce/herbs are a daily harvest, brew beer every week in carport and store in my private laundry. Maybe qld really is backwards, but since moving to the city I’ve gotten healthier, have a shorter commute to work (when I have it) and pay less rent and am mostly happier. I find it very strange to be doing so well in the big smoke.

          • Short work commute helps I’m sure. Also depends on where you are at in life. For me I keep dreaming of going further out. I just like open space.

    • Maybe…they might be able to have it both ways, though, if they throw weight behind renewables, as the writing is on the wall for gas and coal to die a natural market death in the not too distant future…

    • This, Labor’s support for the corrupt as fvck donor legislation has cost Andrew Leigh any chance of me even vaguely considering voting for him and his sh1t party.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      “New laws make it a criminal offence to cause “intangible” damage to Australia’s international relations, without explaining how anyone could know they were having an “intangible” effect.”

      Oh yes! I’ve seen so many pregnant chicks get raided for such Facebook posts! Frightening

  4. Another Friday arvo
    Another trip to Dan Murphy’s at T minus 25 minutes
    Another toll road opening tomorrow in Sydney
    Another week of lies from the woke media
    Life goes on …

    • That was very interesting. Some things never change. Others do, but for the worse.

      Was that film colourised later? Didn’t think colour was available that early?

  5. btw – News just came out that Gold has been renamed and has new symbol on the periodic table.

    From Au to ST for Stimulus.

    • Had Curt only known the drunk punk rock chick that wrote that on his wall, one night after a session to deface a pro [anti] abortion clinic, actually was a deodorant targeted at teens, and then unwittingly used it as a title for that song.

      She telling him post facto was like naw …..

        • Fact ….

          Best bit is how it makes the whole anthem aspect … a joke …

          Or the leftie muso fighting against the man a joke …

          • migtronixMEMBER

            Genesis has nothing to do with anything. See First Kings.

            “When King David was very old, he could not keep warm even when they put covers over him. 2 So his attendants said to him, “Let us look for a young virgin to serve the king and take care of him. She can lie beside him so that our lord the king may keep warm.”

            Did he fashion one from his rib? Didn’t think so.

          • Pop culture with a income stream … kids say yummmmie … psychiatrist on marketing payroll makes bank …

            We covered this long ago …

          • I think in that role she would be a reasonable choice considering her back ground, Obama’s failed gaming attempt, and her contractual knowledge.

      • Because language and ideas are static and nothing ever changes. And everything ever done progresses in a linear way from a well thought through set of premises.

  6. The Traveling Wilbur

    Hope you’re all stocked up on Toilet Paper. Markets taking a massive dump (futures).

  7. migtronixMEMBER

    Is something wrong?
    She said
    Of course there is
    You’re still alive
    She said
    Oh, do I deserve to be?
    Is that the question?
    And if so, if so
    Who answers?
    Who answers?

  8. migtronixMEMBER

    Sounds like Melbourne

    ‘Xinjiang, the heavily policed region of western China where the government has been accused of detaining more than a million Muslims, is facing a new coronavirus outbreak. https://t.co/EF4j1sLn3H

    • Now, I can almost see the ‘awww, now, wouldn’t that be a shame if all of youse were dead because of this “sudden outbreak”‘ on Pooh bear’s face…

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      They locked down the entire Xinjiang in July to September. Not the ‘you can exercise within 5km of your home’ Melbourne version, but the ‘step outside and we’ll harvest your organ ‘ Chinese version.

      Recently, they tested 4.7 million people in the city of Kashgar, and found 183 cases

      http://www.xinhuanet.com/local/2020-10/28/c_1126669482.htm (in Chinese, use google translate)

      Anyone who tested positive, and everyone close to them, is put into involuntary quarantine.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          If you’d done the right thing earlier and moved to a competent state like Qld you wouldn’t be having these problems. 😜

          And you could have gone to the AFL final.

    • I know those guys, this is the essence:
      “He’s just got this streak in him where he f–ks everyone over,” the person says.

      The past management at Billabong is similar.
      Not really sure off the current
      Add Surfstitch.

        • They bought me a book, The Prince;by Niccolò Machiavelli
          WW you need to get this under your belt” Signed.
          Well > I’m still outside the jail.
          Empire is still growing, reputation in tact.
          But it is a hell of a book, everyone needs a copy in their library. well read, often

          • Miggy, Sandy Munro, in one of his posts on Tesla, (and munro live is worth watching-subscribing)
            told us, well those guys on wall st, they have their MBA’s
            Well I have this, and he is waving his copy of the Art of War about.
            I copied the image of him from utube and pasted it in thefront cover of my copy.
            With those two books,you can take on all comers.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            It’s why Trump will lose. You can’t whine from a position of power, that’s not where the advantage is.

          • I kept this snippet from a NYT arctile back in 2018 regarding Carlos Ghosn.

            “ The books that Mr. Ghosn is reading in jail — including; “ When Things Fall Apart,” by Pema Chodron“Teachings of the Buddha,” by Jack Kornfield; and “A Little Life,” a dark novel by Hanya Yanagihara — speak to his state of mind.”

            Wonder if he finished any of them? 😂

  9. migtronixMEMBER

    20 20 20 4 years to go
    I wanna be euthenated
    Hate this sh!t hole and everyone
    In it
    Just put me in an airoplane
    And shove me out door
    20 20 20 4 years to go
    I wanna be euthanated

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      During this whole Swedish experiment I’ve never seen the numbers on how many voluntarily self-isolated apart from “most”.

      Those that did must be cranky, especially when you think that the country they sacrificed for still performed worse economically than their locked down neighbours.

      • Yup, from all the vox pops I read on ABC at the beginning of covid it’s also a lot of city vs non city folk. I’m sure more than few medium/small towns/cities not far from big cities got infected by rude cunces just like happened in VIC and are real shirty.

      • There was some discussion about the he Swede’s being socially responsible and possessing the trait if restraint. I don’t think that we do that. The Swede response strokes me as something that wouldn’t work here like alcohol vending machines wouldn’t work here. We’d stuff it up.

        • If there was a Dan Murphy’s Machine at teh end of our street, that would materially affect the bottom line.

        • I agree with this. Still isn’t stopping them from an epic second wave and hospitals close to capacity. Economy not doing better than anyone else either. Covid appears to not care about one countries level of individual social responsibility/selfishness – for countries that share borders with others only answer appears to be to enforce social distancing to manage the spread so hospitals don’t get overwhelmed, island nations should go for avoidance of infection at all or elimination after infection. It’s not ideal but, chit, even Sweden is about to hit hospital capacity overload.

      • I just hate that we all spent so many wasted comments stating the bleeding obvious – we are an island nation, we can do elimination, we should do elimination. So many fckn times Sweden was mentioned, so many fckn times. Look at it now. Sigh. I could’ve been wrong, but I’ve always been the sort to make big, hard, fast moves in face of threat and be happy to be wrong later.

        Been thinking about this a bit lately with the storms in SE Qld, maybe it was being in Yeppoon in late 80’s/early 90’s, we had some wild weather, I think it really imprinted preparedness on me. Not so much “prepping” preparedness (lol maybe I’m a bit preppy) but preparedness to act swiftly. Aw shucks. Yall should get a rum in ya, or wine, or scotch, or beer or whatever works for yas.

        • The UsurperMEMBER

          Lol I lived in Yeppoon for 18 months. The real estate handed me the keys alongside a disaster preparation guide from Council.

      • Awww, gotta put that human personal touch on that firing process! NAB – more than money! Well that’s wrong, actually it’s “NAB, more money than (you could ever imagine)”

    • I can guarantee you that they looked at all the metrics, productivity figures and performance and it fell off a cliff.

    • By returning to the office, we want to start again unlocking the benefits of in-person collaboration, such as better innovating for customers, learning from each other, problem solving together, mentoring and building our high-performance culture

      If I worked there, I would end it all. How can people put up with this garbage?

  10. Ukrainians have been massing troops on the DPR border for more than a week now in much greater numbers than usual…….don’t be surprised if Gina Haspel at the CIA hasn’t organised some action for this weekend to make more difficulties for Mr Trump at the worst moment. It might help their country forget their Covid 19 problems for a while as well

    https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1321918740246585344

    .

  11. Is it just me or are all the libertarian faithful starting to vibrate in joyful calliope – ?????

  12. Selling houses Australia, funny watching some Gen X / Boomer investor over capitalised on a property near a rail line. Money going into mortgage repayments and wants to get out, but doesn’t want to sell for a loss.. ha.

    Found address
    1 wilson parade heathcote nsw

  13. Origin of the series? Peter Fitz
    The well-known sports writer who recently retired, Mike Colman, has just come out with a book containing the best of his work over the last four decades, Mike Colman on Sport, and it is a beauty. One of the best yarns is perfectly framed for this next week, as Origin I roars into action. See while you think and I think that the first Origin match was played four decades ago, Colman knows better!
    As does the old bloke living in Charters Towers, an 87-year-old by the name of Ernie Hill, whose deafness comes from serving as a machine-gunner in the Pacific during World War II.
    The true first Origin match?
    “It was on Bougainville in 1945,”
    Hill insists. “I should know, I was there … and I’ve still got the program.”
    See, back in September 1945 – about a month after Japan surrendered, following the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki – there were plenty of Australian soldiers still in place around the Pacific who had not yet been demobbed. How to keep them busy and happily occupied while they waited for the ships to come?
    Sport was one obvious way, but playing for your battalion – as had been the way through most of World War II – had lost some of its oomph now that the battalions were no longer actively fighting the Japanese. New senses of identity started to reassert themselves. Yes, we are all Australians, but what are we also?
    “We are QUEENSLANDERS.”
    “Oh. Well I guess that means we are from New South Wales.”
    As it has always been, as it is, as it will always be, there is something weird about the Queenslanders that they identify with their state so strongly, but such is the case and it is decided to play two matches of rugby league – Queensland vs NSW, based purely on where you were raised, not what battalion you serve now – all in the heat and humidity of the Bouganville day, with both games to be broadcast around the nearby islands, and broadcast to other troops.
    “At 1400 hours on September 16, 1945,” Colman recounts, “the Queensland side, wearing maroon jerseys and captained by Rockhampton fullback Jack Barnes, ran onto Medco Ground and lined up against NSW, wearing blue and led by Newcastle five-eighth Horrie Marjoribanks.”
    “NSW won the toss and Bobby Williamson kicked off for the Bananalanders,” a contemporary account runs. “From the word ‘go’ the Queensland forwards were on the ball and stayed there until the final whistle.”
    Who won? Who do you bloody reckon? They’re QUEENSLANDERS, remember?
    The brutes got up 10-9 in the first match, and 20–13 in the second a week later, and were awarded their trophy made from a Japanese artillery shell, and inscribed with the names of the players from both teams. And then their ships came in, taking them home, home to Australia.
    As to where that Japanese artillery shell is now, Mike says it is at the Victoria Barracks Museum, just a short walk down Caxton St to Lang Park. I reckon it is a holy relic, and would be an excellent actual trophy for the modern series.
    Great book.

    • Hmmm might have to give the book a go and hit up the museum to fact check.

      My grandfather served in PNG and Bougainville, only thing he ever said to me about the war was “You learn to be quiet when there’s japs in the jungle”. Lol classic

      Edit: PNG/Bougainville and Borneo

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Many years ago I had dinner in an original Queenslander shack in North Queensland …..a simple Aussie meal before they had heard of the word chef …….
        After diner the table was cleared and the host went into his bed room and came back with a large brown paper wrapped parcel .
        He placed it on the table and proceeded to unwrap it .
        It contained a Japanese officers sword and a Japanese battle flag .
        He looked at me proudly and said …” I had to kill 14 of the fcukers to get that “

        Those Australians are now forgotten and could be even cancelled ……..,,,,,,but I rather liked them

  14. TailorTrashMEMBER

    “The site will be converted to an import terminal employing 60 people”.

    And it will take only 3 bombs to knock out straya’s entire onshore fuel refining capacity …….( if we can even get the crude )

    Never mind …we are designing the plans for the design of the shipyards for building of the 50 billion subs to escort the fuel tankers from our strategic fuel reserve in Louisiana……

    Praise be and pass the ammunition…..

    Ok I’m sure there are greater minds at work on the plans for the defence of the nation and it’s all in hand
    …..but jeez one hopes they are not all working on future consultancy gigs …..,,
    https://amp.abc.net.au/article/12832372

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Go full mad max … fit a couple machine guns in unexpected places ( ask your South African friends for tips ) ……,…when the money printing stops …the fun begins ……

    • Ampol will announce before the end of the year that it will shut down its brisbane refinery. So I guess that will leave us with 2. They blame cost and falling oil price but how is it korea and japan still have no worries refining oil.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        The idiots running straya prefer to pay job keeper for people to sit at home playing video games than spend it supporting oil refining and car manufacturing that might actually provide jobs for them . ….country in big trouble ….