Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar rocket ready for launch

Not quite a sea of red across stock markets in Asia today despite the big falls on Wall Street and in Europe overnight, with mainland Chinese shares actually advancing. There’s been a co-ordination of weakness in other risk assets like Australian dollar and gold with the shiny metal slowly trying to get back after its big walloping overnight well below the $1900USD per ounce level:

The Shanghai Composite is advancing slightly, currently up 0.2% to 3276 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is continuing its retracement, down 0.5% to 24583 points. Japanese stock markets are not doing too bad considering the risk-off mood, with the Nikkei 225 closing only 0.3% lower at 23331 points as the USDJPY pair tries to get out of its hole here, barely making it to the mid 104 level:

The ASX200 was hit the hardest, falling 1.6% after being down nearly 2% with gold and discretionary stocks hit the hardest, closing at 5960 points. The Australian dollar was largely unchanged from its hammering overnight, firming slightly to the 70.60 level but looking very weak going into the London open:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are bouncing back slightly but obviously from very oversold positions, in line with traded risk assets here in Asia. The four hourly chart of the S&P shows a small bounce to try to get back above the 3300 point “bottom” as volatility gains momentum going into next week’s “election” aka coup aka shitshow:


The economic calendar is absolutely packed tonight, starting with German unemployment, then US GDP figures for the 3Q, then the ECB has its monthly meeting followed by its press conference.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I’ve learned, the hard way, it’s just more efficient that way (saves a lot of time).

    • Looks like you’ve got a critic. Apparently vita important that the guy unblocking your shitta agrees with your political views. This is the world we live in.

      Frankly I wouldn’t care if you believed in Unicorns if you fixed my thunder box at a good price and to a good standard.

    • They say that politics and sport don’t mix — perhaps that should be extended to politics and work.

      Just create a new account under which you can express some non-work related views. πŸ˜‰

      • possible but I doubt. There are few reason why I don’t think so.
        It looks like he does love his country. And on top of everything where can he hide? He is highly recognisable and US would love to catch him as individual and put him through hell via public trials. He is not leaving Russia.
        Also, he is making himself vulnerable by keeping money OS.

        • I have to confess, any bad (or good) guy with a hefty stash just has to have a Swiss bank account. If these Russian pollies have to bring some home then so be it – but I wouldn’t bring it all. Putin must have a huge stash in Switzerland.

  1. The Traveling Wilbur

    I might be a bit drunk, but that cartoon is awesome.

    Thank you Chris. Spent 3 minutes looking at it. Zenned.

    • this is the root cause:
      At Wollongong University, there were 4 students taking Economics and all of them had an ‘A’ so far.
      These four friends were so confident that the weekend before finals, they decided to go to Sydney and have a few beers.
      But they slept most of Sunday and didn’t make it back to the Uni until late Monday morning.
      Rather than taking the final then, they decided that they would explain to their professor why they missed it.
      They said that they had visited friends but on the way back they had a flat tyre and found there was no spare in the car.
      s a result, they missed the final.

      The Professor agreed they could make up the final economics exam the next day.
      So they studied that night for the exam.
      Next day the Professor placed them in separate rooms and gave each of them a test booklet.
      They quickly answered the first problem – worth 5 points.
      Cool, this was going to be easy … then they turned the page.
      On the second page was written . . . For 95 points:
      Which tyre went flat?

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      But, but you have to understand: our leaders are different – their sh.t definitely does not stink.

  2. The Traveling Wilbur

    Question. If the brain has no nerve endings (touch/pain receptors), why does thinking through certain problems and having epiphanies / sudden realisations sometimes physically hurt so much?

  3. are you people ready for another sea of red? My feel is futures will go into red and markets will fall. That was always the Dems plan.

    • I really hope so, let all those robin hooders get washed away. Would be great if the elections got undecided, cherry on top!!

    • Stimulus is what gives life to stocks and, frankly, from these lofty levels stocks have no hope without further stimulus.

      This makes perfect sense as going into debt to fund consumption brings the future forward and the future has arrived, so what will generate demand? Duh, stimulus …

      Going to be many years of this and then ….. hyper-inflation. Watch …

          • No problem. I just thought I would point out that an increase in debt is as much about patience as it is about impatience.
            Moreso when the interest rate is falling as that implies there are more impatient people at a higher interest rate v patient people.
            So bringing future forward meme doesn’t tie back to reality.
            In reality people are sacrificing the present because they are so worried about the future.

    • Its ok for now but oil still taken a beating. If oil cracks down 36 then it might drag everything with it. There is going to be a bit of a holding pattern until the us gdp and jobless claims numbers come out. Its going to be an interesting day

  4. TailorTrashMEMBER

    What no anti Trump cartoon ?
    ….but that pic looks like mount St. Helens …before the big explosion …..

    • The Traveling Wilbur


      Can I have my $250k of government funding now, please?

    • I find these reports a bit disappointing, the majority of drug users are poly-users and simply purchase what is available. All these reports tell me is what beat customs. I’d be much more interested in what drugs people would want to use if it was available.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Please see above. That was my point.

        I excluded alcohol. As it’s legal.
        And tasty.

      • Thought that was addressed, your quire might need more than a open question.

        We see how MMT has been used by some ideologues so the question to me is why that state of affairs is framed as TINA.

        • Kelton says unemployment is gratuitous – agree.
          But that implies the ruling class chooses unemployment. Unemployment in their view is the optimal use of resources.
          So why if they are still in control will they choose a money-financed job guarantee?
          eg. what is the end goal or problem that you are trying to solve? Is it some fantasy MMT full employment under conditions of extreme inequality which predetermines the opposite, or is it redistribution of power?
          If its redistribution of power, is an anti-tax message really helpful?

          • Firstly your going to have to accept MMT is some decades in operation, so any outcomes are just administrative.

            Second is what taxes are for and how that has changed in out currant global markets and how best to mitigate anti social outcomes contra to views from a begone era.

            Never the less I think we both agree the currant political back drop makes any changes to TINA a difficult perspective.

          • so why do you support MMT then when taxation is primarily a political tool? to rearrange power?

          • BTW I don’t “support” MMT … I agree with the description. Now all the other stuff like JG e.g. setting the price of labour being a better system than setting the price of money and a whole lot of other stuff is political – I separate the logic from the political.

            First and Foremost my concern is the framing that has been wrought for ideological reasons, during the neoliberal period, after that is somewhat sorted then a debate about what Kelton is banging on about can be had. The anti tax conditioning by the usual suspects makes framing the debate using taxes nigh impossible, until the prior is better understood. Personally I think dealing with the cornerstone first better establishes and promotes all other possible success and don’t want to get bogged down in greasy pig fights with the anti tax mobs, why not remove that talking point all together.

  5. Let er rip, hey. Where’s all that talk now Europe/US is copping it?

    Anyway, enough baiting. Brisbanites – am I the only one who felt cheated we didn’t get a storm today? Hot as all day, kept telling myself it’ll be all good when the rain comes and yet I’m still sitting here sweating. *shakes fist at sky*