Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar sags as markets plough into pandemic

Stocks markets are mixed across the region despite the falls on Wall Street and in Europe overnight, as concerns over COVID (at least on the continent, not the colonists) outweigh risk sentiment. There’s been a continued retreat to safe havens like USD, Yen and gold – and Bitcoin – with the non-useless shiny metal slowly inching above the $1900USD per ounce level as it tries to bounce off its medium term uptrend:

The Shanghai Composite is finally putting runs on the board, up 0.4% to 3260 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is continuing its retracement, down 0.3% to 24729 points. Japanese stock markets are accelerating their own selloff, with the Nikkei 225 closing nearly 0.5% lower at 23374 points as the USDJPY pair hastens its retreat on the back of Yen safe haven buying:

The ASX200 is stabilising here after today’s CPI print, finishing 0.1% higher to 6057 points, while the Australian dollar has firmed up to its Friday night high at the 71.40 level with the four hourly chart broadcasting a possible breakout above that level going into the London open:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are sliding back with talk about more shutdowns – particularly Germany and France – weighing again. The four hourly chart of the S&P shows a continued decline as this short term retracement gains momentum going into next week’s election (thank fricken Dog below its almost over…hahahahh):

The economic calendar is relatively quiet tonight with a private crude oil change dataset plus some trade goods figures from the US.

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Comments

  1. received a call from India showing as mobile number. Was told other people are logging into my router and using my Telstra connection and I have to tell her when I am in front of my computer so she can help me secure my connection. She is from Telstra apparently.
    I am with IINET but even if I was wit Telstra there is no way I would have fallen for this. I thought everyone in Australia is aware of this scam. Can’t believe it’s still going and people still falling for it.

    • I got a call the other day that I needed to press 1 to talk to the ATO or they would file against me in federal court and I would be arrested. Not sure that is how it works.

    • I’ve had those before. Argue with them and tell them you are doing what they ask but it isn’t working. Play dumb. The longest I was able to yank their chain was 47 minutes before they realized I was trolling them.

      • My business gets requests to pay all manner of invoices (normally from a few hundred to a few thousand dollars) — I feel like emailing back and saying I tried to pay but you’ve given me the wrong account details. Just to get them excited ..

        • Shades of MessinaMEMBER

          I normally reply giving my mate’s email address and phone number saying that he is quite wealthy and very interested in these type of deals.

    • I get a call from my parents about this once a week or so.

      They do use Telstra for phone and internet, which makes it worse.

      I don’t often wish harm on people but the cvnts running these scams deserve a painful and lingering death.

    • I had a subcontinent type by the name of Peter Parker call me once. “How are you Spiderman” I enquired. Also ask them for their number and tell them you call ’em back or say you’re a copper; they hang up real quick.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Hey bloke, it was just someone trying to help and you let your racliastness cloud your judgement, again!

    • Popliteal fossa

      Do they ring from an aussie mobile number, and if you try call it back thye say the number is disconnected? Those chunts have been calling me for days while i’m at work

  2. I bet Macron just wants everyone to shut up.

    https://www.france24.com/en/france/20201027-france-tightens-security-facing-very-high-terror-risk-after-teacher-beheading

    Had to laugh at this one. Which “rule” will take precedence do you think?

    “A boycott will only move Turkey even further away from the EU,” European Commission spokesman Balazs Ujvaris said Tuesday, insisting that Turkey needs to respect the terms of its trade deal on merchandise and goods with the EU.

    • blacktwin997MEMBER

      Thanks man, that article is a classic 🙂 Makes her out to be even more appalling than we already suspected. Some enlightening background and lack of introspection, here in Dr D’s own words:

      “I wasn’t equipped with the science that was necessary to do it and I felt really stupid.”
      “I had to choose between jurisprudence and demography, and I couldn’t say ‘jurisprudence’ and I had no idea what it was, so I chose demography because it sounded interesting,”
      “I’m still working hard to survive, honestly I don’t think I’ll have the prospect of ever owning a home.”

      • 1) … the she set out to prove it! … and prove it she did!
        2) … well done, see point 1
        3) … obviously she needs to get a better job.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      That’s not the first story about her like this, trying to build the reputation. Reckon it’s a ploy to stop mean and nasty people attacking her views, much like the poor lovelorn Gladys in NSW or the barely human Gladys in Vic.

      • blacktwin997MEMBER

        Ooh ooh, or when Andrew Robb busted out the depression card to innoculate against public outrage just prior to selling Australians out to the Chynah via ChAFTA and Darwin/Landbridge. Though the Liz Allen story appears to convey an impression that she is a povvo dumbarse kid factory welfare absorber doing her best to maximise both Canberra’s carbon and Tim Tam footprint.

        Also: She’s a strong advocate for managed population growth

    • MountainGuinMEMBER

      So hates inequality but the Doctor who spent limited time in the workforce is happy to write off all others on her occupation as old white men. Seems negative sereotypes can only be applied to certain demographics…

      • @MountainGuin Yep and “Most demography …..is done by white, old, wealthy men in Australia and has been forever,” she explained.

        “And here I come with my unique brand; I’m a defiant person”,

        The two demographers that come to mind are Bob Birrell and Catherine Betts. While both have been commenting sanely, rationally, calmly on population for decades, and Bob is white and old, neither is wealthy. The contrast to Liz couldn’t be greater. And neither has seven kids whose existence they’re trying to justify and pay for. She is nothing but a con artist who undermines the decades of solid research done by Birrell and Betts. They must be horrified. The demographers version of Trump.

        But the main culprits in this crass stupidity are the MSM and the ABC who give her airspace.

    • macaroni jewelerMEMBER

      Demographer vs Junkie?
      To quote the greatest band on Earth… TISM
      “…what a tragic waste of potential, at least junkies produce saliva.”

    • “Every now and again I pinch myself and think ‘You’re a doctor’,” Allen said. LOL

      And the seven kids…..says it all. Major, major FW

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      Algorithms have never been detrimental to Latino, white, Asian ever in the history of the planet

      Luckily they are Americans and not Chinese and then they’re organs would be harvested

  3. Trump by a bee’s dick, QE avalanche to follow, gold to the moon

    Vaccine in the new year, stock markets to venus!

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      Nah. Political carnage. No clear winner. Stocks sh1te it, because they have a reason to (unchecked virus, civil unrest, political uncertainty), and because they are in mental territory on most metrics – bottom will drop out. Fed will lose control/”don’t fight the fed” narrative will break down.

      Vaccine/durable immunity plus roll-out miles off. This thing is just picking up steam. Optimism bias has had people thinking it would “just go away” since Jan. Still people walking around like “2021 will be better!”. Yeh good luck with that.

      • Virus is going to get much much worse over the Nth Hemisphere winter.
        What we have seen so far is a warmup act. The main show is coming over the next 6 months.

  4. migtronixMEMBER

    “Three people are in hospital. There are no cases in intensive care.”.

    25ks will flatten that curve

  5. In the last 7 days 3 new For Sale signs and one old has Sold sticker on it. Overall volumes are down but I see some green shoots.

  6. Oi Tightwad, where you at? Been wanting to point out to you all these European/US hospitals drowning in covid patients causing problems. You’ve been awol since I said this is what I feared here. You hiding because evidence supports my point or just busy with other stuff? Lol

    To your point about freedoms lost, never to be regained. See post 9/11 laws, we already got rorted, covid is just icing on the cake.

  7. very interesting.. futures keep falling but commodities are not following. for now.

    frk.. I jinxed them.. LME Cu just went red.

  8. migtronixMEMBER

    Riding on anything
    Anything’s good enough
    Who would’ve thought it of
    Someone like you
    Just as they brought me round
    Now that they brought you down
    Roundabout and roundabout
    Who wants a life anyway?

  9. Woke warning!! Gardening talk ahead. Extra warning for those scared by wokeness, following will totes include mentions of:
    Costa
    Gardening Australia
    Bi sexual Paw Paw
    Landline

    My cherry tomatoes are victims of their own success (and also my gardening choices).

    In the past I’ve tended to be overzealous in pruning back non-productive leafy branches so this time I’ve let them get fairly wild. Just been supporting the big branches with cloth ties and stakes. Have heapes of fruit on but some of the best branches have buckled under their weight in the wind/rain/hail and I’ve had to make some hasty repairs between storm fronts and now fingers crossed they mend themselves enough to get the fruit ripe enough to pick.

    As for the lawn, why did I do this to myself lol. Could’ve just left it in the dilapidated condition I found it but no, had to go and re-seed. Twice a week mowing in between storms!!!

    I love it though, lush and green and should be good year round because of the species choices. Can’t recommend that McKays elite backyard blend enough for brisbanites/east coasters.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Know what you mean. I cactussed a cactus by growing it to the point it couldn’t support it’s own weight, and, on top of that (after salvaging living bits from the remnants of the inevitable) the replanted bits are now doing well in a planter box and having to compete with multiple varieties of spontaneously growing mushroom that just turn up fully grown overnight no matter how many I pull. Nature is weird.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          I might not know what any of the mushroom types that are growing up are, but I dang well know what went in the planter dirt/soil/horrendouslyoverfertilizedbythenursery/potting-mix/epsomsalts/overwatered base they’re coming out of. No way do I even touch them. I break ’em up and poke ’em back down (with a stick) to enrich the ‘soil’. Micro-do-nting.

  10. GunnamattaMEMBER

    My wife and daughter are amongst the #strandedAussies offshore.

    They have just called the Moscow Embassy and been told that the Moscow Embassy know nothing about the repatriation flights, or how to book or register for the London flights, and the embassy advised them to call ‘the airlines’. My wife called Qatar Airlines from Moscow and was told they dont know anything about them. I called (phone) QANTAS here and was told that they or I would need to arrange it through DFAT.

    Is there no end to the bullshit this nations feeds its own?…..

    There is not a single ‘Stranded Australians: Register Here’ link on the DFAT, QANTAS or ScoMo websites

    If you call 131313 (QANTAS) you get the message

    press 1 for upgrades
    press 2 frequent flyers
    press 3 for todays arrival times

    press 0 to hear this message again……

    and the QANTAS call

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      This is the LNP in a nutshell: they do nothing unless you donate to or vote for them. The rest of you can get fvcked.
      I hope this burns into you deeply when the campaigning begins.

    • Just another PR exercise, bought to you by Scotty from Marketing TM. Sigh. When will it end. You have my sympathy. Son in law had a flight booked from Germany for next week on Qatar. Has been rescheduled for mid-December (we hope).

    • unbelievable , any luck with talking to the local federal member?
      sincere wishes of safely flight back soon

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        They registered there ages ago.

        They are OK insofar as they have a place to stay (free) but they’ve been away a long time and my daughter is starting to exhibit symptoms of serious anxiety.

        • My heart with you and your family mate, really hope this will resolve soon. And that anxiety to be resolved
          by a hug from you

        • Ukraine fnMEMBER

          Sorry to hear Gunna ,where’s the MSM on this? I hope you can sought something soon because once the winter in the northern hemisphere is in full swing (along with the spike in case numbers) getting a flight will be near impossible .
          My heart goes out to you and your family.

    • Incredible for a first world nation. Suspect if they were ‘seasonal’ workers they’d be in Mildura quarantine by the end of the week.

    • Given your story, you could speculate the flights that were announced were just taxpayer funded ones to get their mates home. No invitation, no flight.

    • You should tweet Kristina Keneally, she’s banging on about stranded aussies every day and that the government needs to do something about it.

    • Tell them you’re an international student from Nepal looking to take up a BS degree in Australia that covers something about Demographics. Tell them your parents also will be sending you money to buy property once your there.

      Pretty sure the red carpet will be rolled out quickly.

    • So sorry to hear, J. My son has gf stranded in Glasgow (she is a brit) and he has no idea when he’ll see her again. Your family’s best bet is to get to Europe. Is that possible?

    • blacktwin997MEMBER

      That’s genuinely appalling Gunna, I’m very sorry to hear of your family’s plight. I really hope that the government can get some priorities straightened out now that the virus panic inactivity pretext has abated a little.

  11. NEW ZEALAND: ARE THE RISKS OF GROSSLY EXCESSIVE MULTIPLE LENDING ADEQUATELY UNDERSTOOD ? …

    What do the Irish know, that the Kiwis have yet to learn ? …

    $100 billion house price boom, sign Reserve Bank needs to ‘do less’ … Tom Pullar – Strecker … Stuff New Zealand

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123224199/100-billion-house-price-boom-sign-reserve-bank-needs-to-do-less?cid=app-iPad

    Prominent economist Cameron Bagrie has added his voice to the growing calls on the Reserve Bank to rethink the speed and scale of its monetary stimulus. … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    What do the Irish know that the Kiwis have yet to learn … with the Central Bank of Ireland setting a general cap on mortgages at 3.5 times gross annual household incomes following the ’07 crash ? …

    Mortgage Measures – Central Bank of Ireland .

    https://www.centralbank.ie/financial-system/financial-stability/macro-prudential-policy/mortgage-measures#:~:text=The mortgage measures are aimed,-income (LTI) limits.

    Why has the New Zealand public not been told the full story behind this important decision … and its relevance to the current grossly excessive mortgage multiple lending debacle in New Zealand ?

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      NZ banks are wholly owned subsidiaries of Aussie Banks Hugh. Sorry to say it mate, our banks are going to fck your country.

    • Re-introducing LVRs: “like Deja Vu All Over Again” … QV Valuations / Scoop News

      https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2010/S00477/re-introducing-lvrs-like-deja-vu-all-over-again.htm

      Re-introducing loan-to-value ratios (LVRs) to cool New Zealand’s overheated property market would be “like déjà vu all over again”, according to Quotable Value general manager David Nagel. …

      … “While I certainly agree that New Zealand’s residential property market risks becoming even more unaffordable for first-home buyers at the rate we’re going, I do wonder if the reintroduction of the LVRs will ultimately do them more harm than good and won’t actually address the underlying cause of our overheated property market,” said Mr Nagel.

      “The LVRs are effectively a handbrake; they won’t address the underlying cause of our overheated property market, which always comes back to housing supply. Until we sort that out, we’ll be doomed to repeat this cycle. It will be like déjà vu all over again.” … read more via hyperlink above …

  12. migtronixMEMBER

    I really really want to punch on. Anyone up for it? I keep trying the cops but I just end up in restraints at emergency having to explain to the psych nurse why I want them to punch me. More so

    • will be very interesting week. But at the end of the day stimulus will be needed and commodities like Au, Cu and Ni will go up substantially. That is the bottom line. No matter who wins. All that talk if Joe wins.., if Donald wins.. is just noise. Yes few different sectors will benefit more under each crook but Au, Cu and Ni will go up no matter what.

      • Yep, this ‘stimulus not coming’ talk is BS. It’s just been delayed by the election, that is all.

        • If Biden wins but the Democrat didn’t flip the Senate, there may be no stimulus bill for the next two years.

          • In theory, yes, but when the stock market plunges 30% and there are hundreds of thousands of poor people rioting in various cities it tends to focus minds quiet quickly.

  13. migtronixMEMBER

    Love me or hate me
    Its still an obsession
    Love me or hate me
    That is the question
    If you love me
    then…

  14. migtronixMEMBER

    I would say I’m sorry
    If I thought that it would change your mind
    But I know that this time
    I have said too much
    Been too unkind
    I try to laugh about it
    Cover it all up with lies
    I try to laugh about it
    Hiding the tears in my eyes
    Cause

  15. 40k at the footy

    What happened the confident calls about the “dead duck President”.

    Trump’s going to win.

        • Maybe it’s different in qld, but you get stripped naked then get the anti suicide smock. Either way, you’re not cool or tough, you’re just sad. Get help for real man. You’re fckn up

          • Amateur.

            And then I beat off and taunt about their tiny knobs

            True story actually happened at St Kilda Rd lock up when it still existed

          • Grow up mate. “Oooohhhhh I pay 50% tax, oooohhhh I’m tougher in the watchouse than you, oooohhhhhh you have a forklift licence and a pleb job and I’m so much better because I tap out keystrokes”.
            Guess what. Your lockdown is pretty much over – you’re sadder than ever, what was the point of all your ranting if you’re still sad?
            You earn good money, you’re still sad.

            Mental illness, the great equaliser. Stop fckn about and get help or neck up, I don’t have time for fckwits like you.

        • I hate life. Have for as long as I can recall.

          The only saving grace was over 20 years ago when I lied to my sister and said it’d get better.

          I lied and I hate it.

          She’s doing great, she and her wife are about to celebrate their first Christmas with my niece 👍

          Kill me

          • Put your money to good use man. You can afford private in clinic treatment. That chit is luxury, the way you’re heading you’ll be in the public system on ITO and that is literally worse than jail. If private clinic doesn’t work use your dollars to hire the Stephen Danks of the psych world to give you the best drug induced therapy going, massive strides are being made with guided ketamine treatment, ECT works for some, I’ve always been a big fan of MDMA therapy with a mental health specialist. Ayahuasca works for some but I’m very wary of recommending it, especially in the “trip tourist” settings usually provided (international travel may complicate this route).

            I resuscitated a friend after he hung himself when he was 17, I dont think I did the right thing seeing how his life (and those close to him) turned out. Mental illness is hard. Advice is hard to give. Decisions have unexpected outcomes

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Maybe give her a call and sort out when you can go over next to visit the little one now that lockdown is kind of over? Babies are great for that.

          • I “I resuscitated a friend”

            In 2009. Don’t know he lived.

            Couldn’t deal with it and I moved to Melbourne.

            He died in 2017

            From an overdose I wasn’t there for….

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Sleepy bye-byes time for me. Have to get up and WFH shortly, and the commute’s a b1tch. 😁. See you tomorrow Mig.