Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar sags as markets plough into pandemic

Stocks markets are falling across the region in response to the big stumble on Wall Street and in Europe overnight, with a retreat to safe havens like Yen and gold, the latter inching back above the $1900USD per ounce level but still looking weak here as its medium term uptrend remains under threat:

The Shanghai Composite is an exception, currently putting in a scratch session and going nowhere fast, still at 3250 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index returned from its long weekend with a sea of red across its board, down nearly 0.9% to 24711 points. Japanese stock markets have moved into selloff mode too, with the Nikkei 225 closing some 0.3% lower at 23452 points as the USDJPY pair retreats on the back of Yen safe haven buying:

The ASX200 is the big loser, down 1.7% to 6051 points despite the lack of COVID cases, while the Australian dollar has gone almost nowhere, lifting ever so slightly to the 71.30 level going into the London open:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are mixed with the latter showing half of last night’s selloff filled with a return to the 3400 point level for the S&P500. News that Senate “Leader” McConnell has shutdown the Senate until after the election – meaning 0% chance of passing a stimulus bill for at least two or three weeks, if ever – should weigh on markets as realisation sets in:

The economic calendar includes two US centric releases – the latest durable goods order plus consumer confidence (and house price indicies, but I repeat myself…)

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  1. NEW ZEALAND: WHY ARE AUCKLAND RESIDENTIAL DWELLING COMPLETIONS FALLING ? …

    The number of new homes being completed in Auckland appears to be easing back from recent highs … Greg Ninness … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/107680/number-new-homes-being-completed-auckland-appears-be-easing-back-recent-highs

    The number of new homes being completed in Auckland dropped sharply over July and August, the latest months for which figures are available.

    Figures from Auckland Council show Code Compliance Certificates (CCCs) were issued for 656 new dwellings in August, which was down by 47% compared to the 1244 CCCs issued in August last year.

    CCCs are issued by council’s when a building is completed, unlike building consents, which are usually issued before construction gets underway.

    August was the second month in a row that the number of CCCs issued in Auckland was down significantly on the same month of last year.

    There were 697 CCCs issued in July, down 38% compared to July last year. … read more via hyperlink above …

  2. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    Niko was talking yesterday about PolkaDot.

    Why do I feel compelled to throw some speculation dollars into that rather than other coins?

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I was always the pin cushion for the newbie student nurses because I’ve got the big fat veins that are easy to find. Good bleeder too.

        There was only a couple of times I got the big bruise but one memorable occasion with a very nervous first timer left me with a two arm bruise. I hope she’s doing better now.

        • I’ve got great big fat veins and donate blood regularly (since a relatively rate blood type), but I’d never volunteer to be a test pilot for student nurses.

          I salute you for your sacrifice.

      • Hate needles too. When I was a kid in Darwin getting our vaccinations, the nurse use a mates arm like a dart board trying to find the right spot. Poor bustard came out out of the nurses room absol-fvcken-utely terrified…and I was next.

      • I never thought I was that bad, but when they gave my wife the epidural at 3am and I saw the needle go in her spine I felt the blood leaving my face and almost fainted. I told them as it was happening and they said sit down and lay as flat as possible. So I avoided a complete pass out.

        I think it was the stress and fatigue more than the needle though..

        • Yeah when you have your first kid your ignorance of what can happen protects you a bit. Your wife gets drugs and sympathy, rightly, but hubby just has to soldier on. My first one was a little too close to losing mum and baby and the only way to push on is to not think about it. So I am not surprised to hear your tale.

          • Why so squeamish? I watched my wife’s Caesarian while standing behind her head and holding her hand (she couldn’t see). I was fascinated to see what’s inside. The internal structure of a body is quite something. Skin is a most useful cloaking device…

          • I would have been fascinated also, but was worried I would pass out in the operating theatre and be something else for the surgeons to worry about ..

            Also it was right in the middle of the Covid lockdown and things were chaotic enough without me laying passed out on the floor.

            I suspect if it wasn’t my wife on the table I would probably be ok.

        • I definitely didn’t watch my wife’s epidural but I did help myself to the happy-gas supply that was on the wall behind her bed.

          It made her ill but it helped me pass the time 😉

    • The same college whose modelling predicted all those Covid deaths… And also receives funding by Gates

  3. The recession is over according to the Reserve Bank of Australia:
    “RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle says the September quarter will likely show positive GDP growth across the country despite the drag of Victoria’s lockdown.”
    Well in years of business I’ve come across a few sets of cooked books, from lightly roasted so some near aflame.
    So to announce that the economic books show a positive quarter ahead, I say, means that the cooks have been drinking the alcohol, normally used for the flambe’.
    Who is paying these guys???
    I say we are well into depression, and the real effects will be apparent about Xmas.
    The mayor of the GC says the joint is about to go over a cliff when the govt handouts cease.

    • GDP growth is possible. I mean you could have GDP drop 90% in one quarter and then it grows 1% the next. Yay, growth, how awesome are we, except that GDP is still down 89% from before.
      What will be interesting is how long it takes to get back to our GDP highs and how much fiscal response it required to get us there.

      And those handouts can never cease now. The whole point of them was to avoid a crash, so why would they pull them in order to have the crash that they wanted to avoid in the first place.
      I just heard on the radio that Jobseeker supplement will now be extended. They Gov knows they can’t ever end the fiscal responses.

    • GDP is about ‘quantity’ and nothing more. The Gubmint has recently tipped $200bn into the economy, a large portion of which has flowed straight to the country’s bottom line. National income is up over this period. The next few quarters may be problematic though.

    • WW you do realise Jobkeeper was still full tilt until 30 Sep so the data the RBA look at probably was ok. But the data does not show what lies underneath the flood of cash and the tide is going out (6 mths early … ) whereas when they do in a month or so they may well find out you are right. JK taken away too quickly in my view.

  4. Reprinted (with amendments) from 12 October 2018:

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/10/links-12-october-2018/#comment-3202050

    For Australians the real lesson of the [Amy Barrett] appointment is the danger of creating a “judicial oligarchy” by entrenching constitutional rights. US Supreme Court appointments are contentious because the judges have such enormous latitude interpreting rights that they can effectively “legislate from the bench”.

    Contrary to popular mythology, such judicial legislation has usually been detrimental to the downtrodden[1]. Most people can cite Brown v Board of Education as the landmark decision which overturned the “separate but equal” doctrine. Far fewer know it was the judges themselves who invented that doctrine 58 years earlier (in Plessy v Ferguson) for the very purpose of allowing discrimination. Only one judge dissented.

    The history of constitutional rights is littered with similar examples. In the Lochner Era of the early 20th century, judges routinely threw out legislation which sought to protect workers’ rights. Even today – even before Kennedy retired – the Court was upholding the right of wealthy campaign donors to subvert the electoral process (Citizens United v Federal Election Commission).

    Many people fondly imagine that if only their faction could seize control of the Court, then they could impose their vision of Utopia on everyone else. The danger, as we now see, is that precisely the opposite can occur.

    In the long run, people’s rights are best protected by normal democratic process, not by Platonic Guardians wearing black robes and sitting in a marble temple.

    Stephen Morris

    [1] See, for example:

    Dred Scott v Sanford (1857) which held that a negro, whose ancestors were imported into the US and sold as slaves,whether enslaved or free, could not be an American citizen and therefore had no standing to sue in federal court; or

    Pace v Alabama (1883) in which the judges unanimously affirmed the constitutionality of state anti-miscegenation laws; or

    the Civil Rights Cases (1883) in which the judges restricted the equal protection clause of the recently enacted Fourteenth Amendment to cover only actions by a state, not by individuals, thereby allowing discrimination by individuals; or

    Plessy v Ferguson (1896) in which the judges (with only one dissent) created the artifice of “separate but equal” so as to permit continued racial discrimination; or

    Twining v New Jersey (1908) in which the judges refused to apply Fifth Amendment rights against self-incrimination in state cases; or

    Schenck v United States (1919) in which the judges unanimously read down First Amendment rights to affirm the conviction of a defendant who had been prosecuted for publishing material advocating opposition to the military draft; or

    Palko v Connecticut (1937) in which the judges refused to apply Fifth Amendment rights against double jeopardy in state cases (Frank Palko had been acquitted of first degree murder at his first trial but was convicted the second time around and went to the electric chair in April 1938); or

    Betts v Brady (1942) in which the judges denied counsel to indigent defendants when prosecuted by a state; or

    Korematsu v United States (1944) in which the judges approved the forced relocation of US citizens of Japanese decent on the basis of their race; or

    Dennis v United States (1951) in which the judges read down First Amendment rights in order to uphold the conviction of defendants who had “conspired” to form a Communist Party but who had not taken any direct action. (“They were not even charged with saying anything or writing anything designed to overthrow the Government. The charge was that they agreed to assemble and to talk and publish certain ideas at a later date” – Justice Black’s dissent); or

    Bowers v Hardwick (1986) in which the judges upheld a ban on sodomy.

    Most of these decisions have since been overturned as Elite opinion on the matters changed, but that did little to protect people at the time.

    On the other hand, the judicial oligarchs have demonstrated long-running support for politically powerful groups.

    For example, in Santa Clara County v Southern Pacific Railroad Company (1886) they decided that the “rights” of the Fourteenth Amendment applied not only to natural persons but to corporations. Thus, attempts by the state to regulate the profits of railway monopolies were struck down because (in the opinion of the elite judges) they infringed the “right” of the railroad monopolies to charge (what the judges considered to be) a reasonable profit.

    This line of thinking continues to this day. Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010) prohibits the restriction of independent expenditures on political communications not only for natural persons but for corporations. It interprets “freedom of speech” to include the “right” of corporations to buy politicians.

    And then there is Meyer v. Grant (1988) and Buckley v. American Constitutional Law Foundation, Inc. (1999) which struck down the repeated attempts by democratic states (those with initiative and referendum) to regulate the payment of petition collectors.

    And then there were such beauties as Lochner v New York (1905) in which the judges overturned state laws regulating working hours or minimum wages because these were held to infringe the “liberty” of workers to negotiate with employers who had an overwhelming bargaining advantage. Or Coppage v Kansas (1915) in which they overturned laws protecting workers’ rights to join a union because these were held to infringe the “liberty” of workers to negotiate with employers who banned union membership (“Yellow Dog Contracts”).

    As the famous US judge Billings Learned Hand once observed:


    “[Judges] wrap up their veto in a protective veil of adjectives such as ‘arbitrary’, ‘artificial’, ‘normal’, ‘reasonable’, ‘inherent’, ‘fundamental’, or ‘essential’, whose office usually, though quite innocently, is to disguise what they are doing and impute to it a derivation far more impressive than their personal preferences, which are all that in fact lie behind the decision. . . . .

    “If we do need a third chamber it should appear for what it is, and not as the interpreter of inscrutable principles.”

    See also:

    https://www.scribd.com/document/430340697/Rule-of-Law-has-always-been-the-Rule-of-Lawyers-docx

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Good read Morris. I note it concludes with your long standing paradox of removing decision making from the decision making.

      • Justice Barrett said afterwards: “A judge declares independence not only from the Congress and the president, but also from the private beliefs that might otherwise move her.

        If judges didn’t make decisions based on their beliefs, then why would you need judges?

        If judges didn’t make decisions based on their beliefs, then why would there ever be a non-unanimous decision?

        If judges didn’t make decisions based on their beliefs, then why would a lower court decision ever be overturned by a higher court?

        If judges didn’t make decisions based on their beliefs, then why would precedents ever be overturned? Why doesn’t Plessy v Ferguson still stand? Or Dred Scott v Sandford?

        Any decision-making process which does not ultimately reduce to beliefs must be an “effective method”. One could employ a panel of logic professors to work out the “correct” answer from first principles. Or get someone to write a computer program to do it.

        Why would you need courts?

        It’s remarkable that the supposedly smartest people in the land can stand up and sprout complete gibberish and no-one draws attention to it.

        Law is the Emperors’ New Clothes.

    • blacktwin997MEMBER

      So they want people to associate Koala brand furniture with China, lesbianism and cheating in cricket? Marketing masterstroke!

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          The Crow is Australia’s greatest export.

          Just think, Odin’s messengers a bunch of disagreeable Aussies.

          • Maybe there is now a challenger
            I just saw on ch9 a white bird, tip turkey, strolling through the flooded street
            water up to its bum,
            but the bubble cars were all flooded
            Crows cant do that.

  5. SM Democracy pfft, Never forget this:
    G. Orwell
    “People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.”
    W Churchill:
    “We sleep safely at night because rough men stand ready to visit violence on those who would harm us.”
    WW This is how we will retain freedom

  6. pfh007.comMEMBER

    Someone may have already posted this link.

    Interesting read by Robert Hockett

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/rhockett/2020/10/26/modern-pre-modern-or-post-modern-money-a-brief-guide-for-the-perplexed/#15b7debd1ae9

    “..Money crises stoke money thought – some of it new, most of it old and recycled. Some of the money thought tends toward the crankish. Money crankery is like gingivitis, after all, ‘bleeding gums.’ It perennially emerges and re-emerges, opportunistically, in times of bodily stress.

    But some new old money thought is well worth recycling. It can serve as a corrective for thought-ruts that we’ve fallen into – ruts that work mischief.

    Corrective rediscovery and recycling of this kind only helps, however, if we are clear about what can be usefully recovered for what purposes. And here it behooves us to separate strands, tracing them back to their origins. For much that’s recycled originates in circumstances that are importantly different from ours, and must be updated to be useful…”

    • pfh007.comMEMBER

      This bit warrants a chortle!

      “….Most so-called ‘heterodox’ schools of monetary thought whose names you hear nowadays, from so-called ‘Post-Keynesians’ to that one Post-Keynesian offshoot called ‘MMT,’ are Wicksellians whether they know it or not. (Many do know it.) So are the so-called ‘Austrians,’ from Mises and Hayek through Schumpeter and all their contemporary American disciples, as they all readily admitted when they wrote. This is ironic, to say the least, given how self-styled Austrians and MMTers are often taken by outside observers to be existential enemies, not to mention how ‘Keynesians’ and ‘Post-Keynesians’ – to the latter which school Keynes himself adhered – are all the time at each other’s throats. It is also ironic in light of how many heterodox economists believe Wicksell to have been a ‘classicist,’ owing to misunderstandings that I soon will dispel just below.

  7. Here we go punters, 1 week to cyclone season
    Very dangerous storm slams into Brisbane Moreton Bay.
    Brisane is curretly getting smashed by a torrential downpour triggered by a super cell storm
    The note on the info gram, says “this storm is very dangerous”
    WW this is the true QLD.
    Going to be interesting to see how the mickey mouse infrastructure holds up.
    This joint has had 28 years of so called economic growth
    And about the same time since we had fair dinkum cyclones
    To date, this year has been very warm to hot. Gunna be interesting.

    • My neighbour is a plumber — he’s been meaning to do some work for me recently but most of his guys are out attending to emergencies since the first rain arrived — homes and businesses inundated. And this isn’t that bad — not yet, anyway. Think how many shonky builds there would have been over the past 5 years — and plenty in low-lying areas where permission wouldn’t normally have been granted but ‘modern engineering’ etc

      Water is a massive problem here in QLD — there’s either too little of it, or too much of it. Even the good (read: old) infrastructure struggles to cope.

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      I love those diagrams on the BoM website that look like they were drawn with MS Paint. Crude but effective.

      • If only they could incorporate the lightning, there is some serious atmospherics going on here
        Buildings up surfers way being struck

  8. What in dog’s name is a ‘talent acquisition manager’?!

    I find this all quite alarming.

      • will get moderated.. probably for right reasons. Just go on tweeter and type hunter biden and click on the hashtag. this is not right.
        Hope Trump wins. If his son was involved in this kind of stuff all MSM would have had it on their front pages and screen all the way until elections are over.
        Speculation Obama’s daughter is involved but I’ll leave it for you to see and make up your mind. I am not convinced but that girl looks way too young to be adult.

        • I’m out. He’s dead. He did this. He did that. Too much noise. Maybe in five years time I’ll get a picture of what happened in America over the past four years. Now it is just around and fury being delivered in a social media hyper scream.

  9. migtronixMEMBER

    I just wet my pants!

    “As an example, one scenario that would see a major bank’s capital ratio fall below 6 per cent (that is, well into its capital conservation buffer), would be a fall in property prices of 50 per cent, GDP declining by 20 per cent and unemployment rising to 20 per cent. A downturn of this magnitude has not been observed since the Great Depression and even then, capital ratios remain about prudential minimums. This confirms that the likelihood of a major bank failing is very low.”

    https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2020/sp-ag-2020-10-27.html

    • Should have gone to prison for stupidity:

      Court documents show Kumar had attempted to place a $25,000 bet on a doubles game, with Laranja and Lindell to win the first set but Silva and Turini to win the match. The potential pay-off was $168,000

  10. Arrow2 ( and LSWCH) been missing for a while
    Since he organised the drinks 2 weeks or so.
    Or maybe they are camping and no internet available
    Harry should have accompanied them

  11. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Apparently one has to book a spot to get into kmart…from midnight.

    Civilisation is dead.

    • I’d like to see an independent (good luck) analysis done of the cost of these idiots on the road vs the benefit. Road accidents, insurance claims, injuries to pedestrians, traffic infringements, etc. All the illegal work as many of them are working illegally on tourist and other visas which don’t have work rights. Add in some of the arrangements with restaurants which sees them get shafted forcing underpayment of staff. Net negative to the public guaranteed.

      IIRC Menulog is owned by an Australian billionaire, Leon Kamenev. Says a lot.

    • Apparently a lot of people. What cracks me up is of all my acquaintances, the one’s that use slave delivery the most are those that would refuse to eat at an even moderately “ethnic” food outlet, I’m sure they just “don’t like the food” but I know it’s because they “just don’t like foreigners”, yet have no problem having foreigners handle their take away even though the proximity vector of “foreign to food” is the same. Mental gymnastics to the extreme.

      PS, most of my acquaintances are cunces

      • my toranaMEMBER

        After several thousand calls during my working life in a call centre (not my main job) I had a lovely-sounding young man say “yeah they’re just being cunce about it” to me, yesterday. I wanted to laugh but we were on a serious topic. I mean, he was right.

    • my response is moderated but not for nothing.. this time. I just offered link with example where I would not mind at all as long as delivery driver/rider had certain features.

  12. anyways.. what’s gonna be? are we going to see real bloodbath? I did reload on SFR, IGO and WSA today. But still lot of cash available.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      I’m just gunna hold as expecting a gold rally into Xmas and I’m going all out speccy AQX CWX MAG REE ALK DRE SVL PMY etc

    • Hoping for bloodbath!!

      AAR.ASX
      ALK.ASX
      BBOZ.ASX
      BBUS.ASX
      BGL.ASX
      BRN.ASX
      DEG.ASX
      GMN.ASX
      GOR.ASX
      HZR.ASX
      OGC.ASX
      RRL.ASX
      SBM.ASX
      SLR.ASX