Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Risk markets are stumbling on the open to the trading week here in Asia with most stock markets in retreat with gold flopping below the $1900USD per ounce level after its midweek rally previously fails to find any momentum with the medium term uptrend now under threat:

The Shanghai Composite is losing fast, down another 1% going into the close at 3242 points while in Hong Kong a holiday has the Hang Seng Index closed. Japanese stock markets are hesitating here, with the Nikkei 225 closing some 0.1% lower at 23489 points as the USDJPY pair had a mid morning surge to come back to just below the 105 level:

The ASX200 is barely holding on, down 0.2% to 6155 points, while the Australian dollar has retraced slightly from its Friday night high, just above the 71.10 level going into the London open with momentum ready to invert on the four hourly chart:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are slipping sharply on the back of the reversal in risk sentiment with the S&P500 four hourly chart well down on the Friday night gains, now heading towards the two weekly low at the 3420 point level:

The economic calendar has the German IFO survey and some more new home sales data out of the US tonight.

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  1. WORKING FROM HOME & BALLOONING OFFICE VACANCIES … SYDNEY … SAN FRANCISCO …

    … SYDNEY …

    Working from home rebellion: commuters who don’t want to return to the office … Matt Wade & Anna Patty … Sydney Morning Herald

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/working-from-home-rebellion-commuters-who-don-t-want-to-returns-to-the-office-20201021-p567bh.html

    The work-from-home army is not keen on rejoining the rat race. … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    … SAN FRANCISCO …

    Visualizing The Vacant Office Space In San Francisco … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/visualizing-vacant-office-space-san-francisco

    By SocketSite,

    There is nearly 12 million square feet of vacant office space now spread across San Francisco, including 5.6 million square feet of un-leased space and 6.2 million square feet of space which has been leased but is now sitting vacant and actively seeking a subletter (which is up from 770,000 square feet of sublettable space at the same time last year). … read more via hyperlink above …

    … Do we have graphs for the Australian and New Zealand metros ? …

    • call me ArtieMEMBER

      Yes. I actually surprised myself by having a tiny, private weep of happiness this arvo. Never even thought it was getting to me so badly. Just to go out… just plain go out…no reason…joy

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Yeah, it’s great and I’m so glad we’re Melbourne not Paris.

        I went through a bad patch a bit over a month ago when it looked like I would have to let staff go and fold ten years of hard work. Fortunately we have just scraped through and clients are re-starting projects.

        Looking forward to a couple weeks at the beach in January. It’s going to be savored.

          • Just breaking in a new pair of top of the range Sony noise cancelling head phones
            Tweeter and the Monkey Man.
            What a sound, they dont make that music any more.
            All the way to Hell!

  2. migtronixMEMBER

    took my love, I took it down
    Climbed a mountain and I turned around
    And I saw my reflection in the snow covered hills
    ‘Til the landslide brought me down
    Oh, mirror in the sky, what is love?
    Can the child within my heart rise above?
    Can I sail through the changin’ ocean tides?
    Can I handle the seasons of my life?
    Mmm

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Lem’me know when you figure out the answer to that. I’ll need to borrow the rationale you used.

      PS Most people just have 1 or more kids and then completely forget what the original question was.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Seasons were outlawed withcovid, ocean tides would be a welcome sight, the child is raging and love is a miracle like covid going away …

  3. migtronixMEMBER

    Trump 2020:

    Witch-hunt
    Russia Russia Russia
    Democrat Hoax
    China Plague
    Going away very soon, like a miracle
    80,000 looks to be the number
    Keep America Great
    Make America Great Again
    Make Emails Great Again
    Watch me dance

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      He certainly is a sh1t-stain on humanity.. Unless he’s one of the lizard people.. we expect that of them.

  4. This all just feels a bit risk-off for my liking. There is nothing for speculators or investors to latch onto. If the election is contested it could be a miserable Thanksgiving and Crissy for risk assets.

    Nice little rally otherwise ..

  5. I guy at wife’s work just told them they had 50 couples visiting their open house on the weekend and had first offer only $20k shy of what they want. fck me.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Over in work area houses $600-650k are getting 25-30 visitors and selling as quick as the sign goes up. Not many waiting for auction either, which makes me wonder if they’re all getting out of Dodge because of the scent of death in this most liveable city.

      The young couples are all heading further out of town but still within striking distance for their jobs. Once their lords decide WFH isn’t controlling enough the commute is going to be a nightmare.

      • Well, that’s going to be very interesting — WFH utopia just not panning out as planned and people forced back into the office.

        PLUS, partners WFH together for the first time — lots of fun at first, but then what … lots of divorces? Lots more babies? Who knows … all sorts of possibilities.

    • Fck me all right …. the thing needs to burn and burn hard……. People in this country just need to glimpse an ad for The Block and they go into a feeding frenzy

      • They so desperately want things to remain the way they were. The plans have been laid — the thought that the world may have changed for good, well ….

    • Bear here…

      If wife + husband held their full time job, then current IRs means anything outside of prime Sydney is relatively affordable, on a loan serviceability basis.

      I need to relisten to the interview (I only had half an ear on it), but I’m pretty sure Grantham said he focuses more on repayments, not the actual size of the debt (someone correct me if I’m wrong). I think he was talking cash flow and businesses, but I suppose the same could be said for households.

      • what he said about equities is exactly how I see it and few others on this site. There is a really good chance markets to correct soon. My bet is it will happen before the elections and will get worse if there is impasse in the US due to one side winning the WH and the other the Senate.
        But if Joe wins I am loading up on few miners as sooner or later stimulus will be passed.

    • Mark Blyth explained that everything will be done to prop up asset prices at the next crisis. It wasn’t what I wanted to hear when he said it (1.5+ years ago) but I took it to heart. It is, how they will operate.

      • initially that works and Govs and CBs now think it will work forever. Problem with that is when everything is being done to prop up asset prices that everything will start to lose value against real assets – the ones Skipp think are worthless but people currently pay $2660 AUDs per Ounce. If Govs outlaw gold and BTC then they will automatically create black market with even more wild prices. We are at the very edge of a cliff now.
        I think the west will try to engineer a reset. And at the end whatever that everything is it must include the unwashed to stay unwashed and the 1% to remain 1%. Yes, they may ask 1% to use lube the unwashed will still be fckd at the end of the day. Anything short of revolution..

        • If Govs outlaw gold and BTC then they will automatically create black market with even more wild prices.

          I guess the obvious question is: “so what?”.

      • and almost forgot.. hence why there is a push for cashless system. The reset needs to capture all future transactions so the elites can tax us every time we take a breath of fresh air.

        • Agree, that’s why I’m long assets. Fwiw capital gains on vintage cars don’t attract tax.. unlike Stonks and Real Estate.

          I’ve been flirting with the idea of buying BTC, feel like just a small amount may be a good idea at this point.

          I am hoping for some form of UBI for basic living expenses that everyone gets. I think the Pandemic has shown it works to a point.

          • have a look at polkadot if you are interested in crypto. My plan is to buy ~$5k and hold for few years as long as fundamentals don’t change.

  6. Something I thought objectively described what has happened over the neoliberal period –

    Interfluidity on the Predatory Precariat–

    In a stratified, liberal capitalist society, the ability to command market power, to charge a margin sufficiently above the cost of inputs to cover the purchase of positional goods, becomes the definition of caste. When goods like health, comfort, safety, and ones children’s life prospects are effectively price-rationed, individuals will lever themselves to the hilt to purchase their place. The result is a strange precariot, objectively wealthy, educated and in a certain sense well-intended, who justify as a matter of defensive necessity participation in arrangements whose ugliness they cannot quite not see. In aggregate, they are predators, but individually they are also prey, and they feel embattled. So long as the intensity of stratification endures, they will feel like they have little choice but to participate in, even to collude to entrench, the institutions that secure their market power and their relatively decent place.

    Own goal as it were …

    • In short
      to keep the ponzi running, someone is going to have to force feed debt into the millennials
      It aint gunna end well, like Mig they can see their shadow on the distant mountain.

      • Your argument on debt is emotional and founded on an inaccurate perspective about money.

        The observation above has nothing to do with debt in the first order of acts, but the ideological philosophy which underpins neoliberalism, and how that agency set the stage for everything else. Don’t think debt had anything to do with wages and productivity diverging, share buy backs, Trump dragging heels about covid until elites could reposition for its effects and profit, et al.

        You need a new drum.

          • Logic dictates if not A. necessarily or automatically is B. but can be a combination of C>D>E> et al. Hence why the debt focal point misses a huge amount of data.

          • For the discussion how about we define neoliberalism policies say as: C D E etc
            eliminating price controls
            deregulating capital markets
            lowering trade barriers
            reducing govt influence in the economy,
            especially through privatization and austerity.
            Debt, ie. the issuance of currency to the punters was necessary and still is to keep those wheels greased
            I say the punters will no longer be able to osmotic-ally absorb debt, it will have to be pumped into them, but I further say they have had enough, cos of the dim light at the end of the tunnel thingy
            Then it will cascade into collapse.

          • Only problem is aggressive and persistent deflation – inflation of which both can be managed. Some would rather a collapse [not going to happen unless elites gain from it] thinking quick personal profit supersedes larger sociological factors. Then some seem to forget that what would have been a short recession was blown into an international financial event because of mercenary shorts.

    • You’re over-complicating things as usual, Skip. Economics is simple and speaks to logic.

      John Maynard Keynes couldn’t tolerate ‘simple’ because he was a very clever mathematician and wanted desperately for economics to be a ‘natural science’ (which it isn’t). The market is self-regulating because it is the articulation of the wants and desires of all citizens and as these change so the market changes. The Gubmint has no clue what the citizens want but they have plenty to say about they think the people should have. Reminds me of a political system that failed spectacularly a few decades ago. Mmmmm, now what could that be ..

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        It’s only simple if you take social dynamics out of it. The current system is collapsing at the moment.

        • The problem, Arthur, is that the ‘system’ is collapsing under the economic system against which I am railing. In fact, for the last 50yrs the world has been operating under a Maynard-sian system and I’m more than confident that it will fail fairly soon (give or take 2-4 yrs).

      • You might be assisted by someone like LARS P. SYLL in removing the idea that economics is simple, that is what the AET/neoclassicals keep trying to push but it blows up in their faces time and time again.

        Further more I’m PK and not a Keynesian [the man himself detested that], not that many including myself are suggesting a reformation in economics and its approach. Lest I remind you its actualy sociopolitical theory with a side of natural history. The economics and its “science” bolt on was a PR marketing stunt.

        • Oh well, mate, one side will be right and one will be wrong. Makes no difference to me. Either way, I’m good.

          • Confusing anything after the Laffer indecent as Keynes-anything is absurd and neo-new Keynesian is just a bolt-on to the IS-LM which in case you have not kept currant is not what Keynes was banging on about … because is like your proclamation that its – all – simple stuff when its anything but.

            Especially when deduced from a few antiquarian axioms.

  7. What takes more effort to maintain – a car or a horse?

    I feel like the horse would be less effort and it’s also fun to hang out with. And you can eat it when it stops working. Fckn cars.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      But can you strap a subwoofer on a horse and cruise down chapel street? (yes, definitely)

    • Tough call, I reckon vet bills would potentially outweigh car repair bills.

      Horses are beautiful creatures. We have paddocks nearby and a few horses. They sometimes walk up to the fence and I give them a pat.

      • I work in Murrarie, Brisbane, so close to cbd and we have horses/pony club just down the road on a fair patch of “scrub” (HT powerline corridor) it’s crazy. Those pony club horses are super chilled, always down for a pat/scratch.

        Even crazier is the slaughterhouse in the same area, cows go in, steaks come out and most don’t even know it’s there ~5km from cbd.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          What happens on the Southside stays on the Southside.

          Lots and lots of greenspace there though. Must be awesome.

    • Don’t care, give me a V8 diesel any day. I’ll happily change the fluids and filters every 5000km and it’ll give me a million miles and at the end it’ll be worth more than I paid for it! Can’t say that for a dead horse, but I feel in this woke age I may as well be flogging one.

    • desmodromicMEMBER

      The trouble with a horse is that you have to keep feeding it, even when you are not using it.

    • It was a funny chain.
      Not good Enough quality or range for those doing art lessons , or embroiderers guild say.
      – specialist stores( seniors, eckersleys , Morris and sons etc) have the goods.
      Not wide enough range for the crafty
      – spotlight has a much better craft range
      Was never quite sure who their market was.

      • Agreed. I am into Diorama building. I get 40% of stuff I need on ebay, 40% at Spotlight, rest non electronic at Eckersley’s – where you pay a premium but they seem to have to specialist range, then Jaycar for LEDs and mechatronics.

    • These guys were a dead cert to fail — their business model was to have stores in expensive shopping centres ffs. Art & Craft in an economic depression? Nup.

      Just stunned that they lasted so long.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      46 years in business. That’s got to hurt.

      Combination of physical retail, Corona, and a mass migration online. So much stuff in that store is sold online, better range, better quality and easily shipped.

      The next round is clothing.

  8. The arts have taken a massive hit this recession. I have seen so many art supply stores close down.

    • This is one of those ones where people will say “just buy it online, way better”, but I feel like it’s one of those things where you’re much better served by a shop with in built (and mostly free) knowledge and advice.

      • I think Riot would have had trouble competing with online alternatives, but it could also be the first of many businesses to fall as JK/JS unwinds and discretionary spending stops.
        It also sounds like they couldn’t get stock, which I know was one concern of a local model shop which sells kits and paints. This place was managed to keep stock coming in and ticking over throughout the Vic lockdowns – it seems that having good customer service and specialised knowledge creates loyalty which always helps. I don’t know if Riot was staffed by knowledgeable store assistants, though.

        • My only comparable business is my local model/hobby shop and they’re great. Hard to tell when you’ve never heard of a business even though it was 46 yrs old lol.

          I’d be real sad if the model shop closed, I can (and do) buy online but they always have that little bit of helpful knowledge at the shop.

    • This is all going to dial back to putting food on the table and paying the mortgage first. Everything else will get rooted.

      Maslow’s hierarchy of needs

    • I dare say that the arty types are canaries in the coal mine with this recession so unsurprising that art supply shops are closing down. Discretionary as well as not exactly having their target market in the big $$$ demographic. how many artists do you know in the top 80% of income earners? It’s a lifestyle choice not a career choice.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Yeah George. Fool me once shame on me but you can’t fool me again. It’s a saying in Alabama. Well, definitely Texas.

      Should be a real show stopper Niko.

      • Never mind advanced age, having more than 1 kid does that to you …. my kids know to stop when I call and figure out which one of them I mean regardless of what name I call.

    • That is f-ing hilarious or f-ing chilling . Senior moment!

      Trump definitely has less of those but I’m sure he must be taking more dr.gs. Or perhaps he has that businessman’s adrenalin rush perpetually.

  9. just transferred some money to my coinspot account and if they appear tomorrow, I will become proud owner of few PolkaDot coins.

    • Yup, Vic State Libs seen as too negative and always attempting to politicise the pandemic. I believe they were following Morrison’s playbook.

    • Vic state libs got hijacked by the religious right. That makes them unelectable (unless you have a corrupt voting system) which we don’t…. yet….

  10. NASDAQ seems to be up. My thoughts are a Biden presidency is good for tech companies and NASDAQ since they won’t go as hard on them re: freedom of expression.

  11. Mitch McConnell and the Smoking Man from X-Files have strikingly similar appearances and characteristics.

  12. migtronixMEMBER

    Can’t wait to laugh at the snowballs on Nov 4. Laughing at the snowflakes was great last time.

  13. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342043239_Silibinin_and_SARS-CoV-2_Dual_Targeting_of_Host_Cytokine_Storm_and_Virus_Replication_Machinery_for_Clinical_Management_of_COVID-19_Patients

    As a direct inhibitor of STAT3—a master checkpoint regulator of inflammatory cytokine signaling and immune response—silibinin might be expected to phenotypically integrate the mechanisms of action of IL-6-targeted monoclonal antibodies and pan-JAK1/2 inhibitors to limit the cytokine storm and T-cell lymphopenia in the clinical setting of severe COVID-19

    This could be the one!! Wawaweewa!!

  14. So it was not really old people at all ….

    M. Keith Chen, Judith A. Chevalier, and Elisa F. Long NBER. From July, still germane. Quoting the abstract in its entirety:

    Nursing homes and other long-term care facilities account for a disproportionate share of COVID-19 cases and fatalities worldwide. Outbreaks in U.S. nursing homes have persisted despite nationwide visitor restrictions beginning in mid-March. An early report issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention identified staff members working in multiple nursing homes as a likely source of spread from the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington to other skilled nursing facilities. The full extent of staff connections between nursing homes—and the role these connections serve in spreading a highly contagious respiratory infection—is currently unknown given the lack of centralized data on cross-facility employment. We perform the first large-scale analysis of nursing home connections via shared staff and contractors using devicelevel geolocation data from 50 million smartphones, and find that 5.1 percent of smartphone users who visit a nursing home for at least one hour also visit another facility during our 11-week study period—even after visitor restrictions were imposed. We construct network measures of connectedness and estimate that nursing homes, on average, share connections with 7 other facilities. Controlling for demographic and other factors, a home’s staff-network connections and its centrality within the greater network strongly predict COVID-19 cases. Traditional federal regulatory metrics of nursing home quality are unimportant in predicting outbreaks, consistent with recent research. Multivariate regressions comparing demographically and geographically similar nursing homes suggest that 49 percent of COVID cases among nursing home residents are attributable to staff movement between facilities.

    It was the business model and its staffing migration.

    • Where is the evidence that these deaths are excessive? What do we put people in nursing homes to do, exactly? (To die)

      There is no one springing out of a nursing home full of life. Its a one way trip.

  15. Get ready for some truthful and complete answers, especially the ones about income …

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/diverse-suburbs-60-000-sydney-households-chosen-to-test-census-20201025-p568d4.html

    About 60,000 Sydney households will take part in a census test on Tuesday ahead of next year’s nationwide head count as the Australian Bureau of Statistics tries to ensure glitches that plagued the last census are not repeated.

    Two suburban regions in Sydney have been chosen for the dress rehearsal because of their diverse demographic and geographical character.

    Eleven Sydney suburbs have been chosen to be part of a test census on Tuesday. A cluster of seven neighbourhoods surrounding Auburn in Sydney’s west will take part. That region has a high share of people born overseas and households which speak more than one language at home.

    • blacktwin997MEMBER

      Of all the suburbs to use as quality control for the Census, you’d be hard pressed to pick worse ones than those comprised inordinately of sub-literate, sub-taxed, sub-legal and sub-GAF migrant cohorts