Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar pressured as virus returns with a vengeance

As the trading week comes to an end, risk sentiment continues to slide here in Asia, with Chinese shares the exception with small lifts on the mainland. The USD is also still firming against most of the majors with gold and silver the exception, the former holding above the $1900USD per ounce level:

The Shanghai Composite is struggling to hold onto a positive result with a scratch effort at 3339 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index took back its previous losses to gain over 1% to 24419 points.  Japanese stock markets are slipping with the Nikkei 225 falling another 0.3% to close at 23439 points as Yen buying comes back as the USDJPY pair has been unable to bounce back from its early week falls:

The ASX200 also took back its previous gains to fall 0.5% to finish at 6176 points, while the Australian dollar remains depressed and below the 71 handle, still making a new weekly low:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are playing catchup with both up 0.5% or so going into the European open with the S&P500 four hourly chart still struggling to get back above previous short term support at the 3480 point level after being rebuffed at short term resistance at 3500 points:

The economic calendar finished the week with the latest Euro inflation rate for September, while in the US its the latest retail sales and the Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

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Comments

  1. To all the Dan haters; what are they seeing in his character that makes them so sure he would lie for months for months and that they are right when there is no history of that sort of thing with him and people that know him say he is a good person.

    • When he went back to Wang to sell the family farm he tried to ‘shout the bar’ and the locals all got up and left. In case you didn’t know, Country people knocking back free beer is a big deal.

      • Country people are also tossers. I have a story for you –

        Pomona, Sunshine Coast, Qld (not super country but pretty fckn rural). My mate lived there, we were regulars at the pub and mostly the local p!ssheads kept to themselves.

        We went to the pub on Anzac day to watch the AFL after the march (mate and his friends all vets) and we were wearing dress shirts/pants/shoes etc, all the good ol country folk started mouthing off about “pooftas and fancy clothes” (not just regular mouthing off either, the sort where bloodshed was imminent).

        Anzac day, at a pub we normally frequented and we were a bit dressed up and that’s the reaction we got. Some medals were retrieved from pockets, re-pinned to shirts and some good ol country people nearly got fckd up.

        No sympathy for Andrews, but don’t talk about “country” people being anything different to the rest of us in Oz, we’re all cunce

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Wellllllllllllll… “The buck stops with me.” he says, yet he accepts his Health Minister’s resignation. And she resigned because she did what now wrong? No more than he did, for sure. Didn’t like that. Or his self-serving closing statement to the enquiry – that spoke volumes about his mindset. Until then his performance in the box had been bullet-proof.

          The cab. sec. resignation is different. Not questioning accepting that.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Well… “The buck stops with me.” he says, yet he accepts his Health Minister’s resignation. And she resigned because she did what now wrong? No more than he did, for sure. Didn’t like that. Or his self-serving closing statement to the enqquiry – that spoke volumes about his mindset. Until then his performance in the box had been bull3t-proof.

          The cab. sec. resignation is different. Not questioning accepting that.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            “responsible” riiiiight. Whatever that means. I think I’ll wait for some findings before agreeing to that. Just like Danny boy says we all should.

            Which is my earlier point. He cannot in good conscience accept her resignation and simultaneously stick around in his job while saying that sort of thing. Unless you can point to what she definitely did wrong, that we know he had absolutely no hand in (of course).

          • Ideological purity or bust …. not that the road was paved after decades of inquisition … ownership is fickle like love it would seem … regret is a child’s dream countenanced by the outcomes of age from a linear progression of expectations down loaded … Universe does not comply … crap …

    • They don’t hate Dan per se they hate the perspective he forwards, hence any FKup is instantly attacked by all the primed operatives to slander the perspective promoted by association.

      Me personally .. he did FKup on this one issue, but only from the prospective that a public official in charge of allocating resources pressed a button because that was the way things were SOP and now is open to blow back.

      Crap and if the same standard was applicable to CEOs …… absurd double standards thingy ….

        • Should read:
          CEOs sent themselves to the (beach) home months before they laid of staff, forced them on to leave, stood down staff, forced them to keep working on site.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            None of that happened with me and I get regular pep talks and updates from leadership all the way to CEO.

            Dan hasn’t done none of that but my former member, the former Health Minister, did do some of that.

          • so what the private sector starts and finishes with your immediate experience?
            How do you know Dan doesn’t give pep talks?

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Mig, this may come as a surprise, but many others have life experiences that are quite different to your own. 🤣😆🎉

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Yes, but they are all poorer or stupider. Or both. Or vote Labor.

            But I repeat myself.

            So they don’t count.

          • So exactly what is the difference between both neoliberal parties outside of gaslighting the electorate – ??????

          • Sweep, what the private sector does is irrelevant. Some there may annoy you, but what they do is still irrelevant.

            The PS is answerable to the taxpayer and they are expected to be competent – the bar is very low, but still. If you can’t do your job, then GF. $400k a year — no wonder Dan doesn’t wanna leave. Could he earn that money outside the PS? Of course not — that’s why he clings on.

          • “What they do is irrelevant”
            How do you figure that when the taxpayer is currently paying their payrolls via jobkeeper?
            And absent job-keeper, and state protected bankruptcy protection the Directors would be in a spot of bother.
            So no, I think the public has a significant interest in “what they do”

        • Are you cognitively impaired … CEOs have been doing that for decades to buff equity … then you’ll grok fail on incentives and why the barbarians are at the gate and Capitalism is_again_ being questioned as a social construct.

          • Why concern yourself at what you perceive to be ‘unacceptable’ behaviour by CEOs in the private sector — if shareholders don’t like what they’re doing they’ll get rid of them. That’s capitalism, that’s the free market …

            Meanwhile, public sector behaviour is a different thing entirely: these chunce are answerable to a different set of people – the taxpayer. Holding privately hired people to the same standard is absurd.

          • “if shareholders don’t like what they’re doing they’ll get rid of them”

            Except.. they won’t because shareholders are usually thousands of individuals hidden behind nominees (who may not even know they are the UBO shareholders (Discretionary Trusts), who then have to elect and control a professional board (itself a product of management land with zero understanding of the product), before they can make any decision on management.
            And by that stage management has moved on to greener pastures.
            *Frictions* Dominic… frictions.

          • Sweeper its simple … no rights except for discretionary of the executive and bonus structure dictates outcomes.

            Yet their seems a shift in perception to stakeholder.

          • Holding privately hired people to the same standard is absurd.

            Some people are still crazy enough to believe that society exists, and even more outrageously, that corporations operate within, and with the permission, of said society.

      • could be Skippy.
        But I just think they are led by the nose. Murdoch wants to discredit what has been a very successful and popular government in Victoria because he can’t have that record attach itself to brand Labor. The independent minded deep thinking libertarians are in reality totally indoctrinated by Murdoch.
        They haven’t even thought through what it is they are accusing him of.

          • of course the Murdoch political party is concerned with the popularity of other political parties.

        • Crap Sweeper …. the problem is Dan unlike his private sector equivalent can’t hire a private compliance agency to fill out his legal compliance and responsibility paperwork and be arms length from claims of indemnity. Yet at the same time be payed manifold what a public office official with even more responsibility [both public and private] is afforded.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Skip, what industry did you work in before Carpentry?

            I don’t understand why people are so wedded to left or right. Neither seem to exist at the moment. It’s looks like pure Tribalism, with little pragmatism.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer…

            I’m a multi skilled manual trades man that currently works in the niche market of protective coatings for mostly Qld’ers. My past is dynamic and have worked as an executive for a few international an national C-corps including Australia across a diverse variety of industry.

            Have a few degrees … cough MBA [zool] and other certifications but a penchant for knowledge and how that is applicable to whom we were and what we are now and how that reflects too the future. I am incidental in the long run,

        • Your obsession with ‘libertarians’ is deeply concerning, sweep. Politics, in particular, is devoid of them. The most famous, in contemporary times, was Ron Paul (since retired US Senator). He is softly spoken, a gentleman at all times and a gynaecologist by profession (but otherwise the epitome of evil).

          There are no real libertarians in Australian politics (Conservatives, yes, but not libertarians). You and the ‘fake doctor’ like to think otherwise, but you both have no clue.

          • when 4 decades of tax cut fetishism has reduced the state to bare rump anyone still promoting tax-cutism is a libertarian by first approximation.

          • The State is hardly a ‘bare rump’ sweep. There are tens of thousands of useless people employed by the State, adding no value whatsoever. There is plenty of fat to cut.

        • Can’t bother digging it up but …. there was a hilarious pommy show and in one episode depicted a couple of young credential birds in the back of a limo on the way to work whilst responding to smart phones [tm] and journalism [elite propaganda] and then at one moment cracked up because they admitted they had no understanding of markets and were just regurgitating BS and made stoopid amounts of money by toeing the line of those spewing the neoliberal dogma for a huge payday ….

          Now the Von went walkabout and libertarians are all about the little people … funding is not indicative of real *** fruit flavors *** … eh …

          • they openly state in the video
            “‘I’ve been asked to ask this question”

            Murdoch calls the editor, the editor gets the message and texts the question to front-line journalism.
            People don’t think its that obvious. It is.

            And yet clearly from the video they have no clue about the topic eg. the virus, how it spreads etc.
            All that matters is that “Brett” was away that day, “Andrews” doesn’t answer this or that question, this person was mean to me on Twitter.

          • Lmmao at mean too_me_ if I was allowed … first insinuation gender was brought up I’d ask if the brain was chained by it then point at Joan [a fellow when it meant something] aka earn it.

            Ugh at corporatist [globalism] libertarians that have not taken the time to read let alone comprehend the difficult multi disciplinary aspects of economics and instead partake of a Koch and a smile … ludicrous …

          • pretty sure the gender thing is an editorial decision to put Dan into a difficult situation whenever a snarky question gets asked.
            Made by an organisation with an 80% male dominated board
            re. Joan Robinson. Yes agree wonder if she would use Twitter.

          • Whilst we have diverged on some aspects of which constitutes Keynesian variants I think we would agree that Joan was both a ball buster and representative of the thrust of Keynes methodology, too a fault, as such was the time, albeit this does not imbue one as an oracle because no one is omnipotent, but some do like to wrap themselves in such garb and proselytize.

            Its too that I think we both grapple with …

          • PS I think Joan would eviscerate the whole libertarian techno platform with consumers as product for what it is and reduce those like Thiel and Elon who mistook riches for knowledge or intellect.

            Yet here we are ….

          • I think so. However her contribution to the critique of neoclassical theory was very much a ‘reinforcement’ of Sraffa’s.which was guiding She would probably admit that.
            And Sraffa doesn’t get due credit for it. To then turn around and deliver her caricature of Marx when she could understand Sraffa’s position on labour theory of value and see the validity was poor imo. At the time though.

  2. In solidarity with those felled by the political malestrom that was this week I have doubled down at Dan Murphy’s with what is (for a pleb like me) a near record Friday night run of $430. Gees it felt good. Can you buy shares in that place – it was going off. Didn’t see dirty Darryl though.

  3. migtronixMEMBER

    Fatty of the USA:

    “I don’t want to panic the country saying everyone is going to be killed”

    Also fatty

    “antifa is taking over everyone is going to be killed”

  4. now that no major media covers NSW or any other state politics unless their bosses tell them to destroy someone, where do I need to go do some reading on NSW. Jodi got me interested again.

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      Scummo is railing hard against Vic and Qld. Quiet as a mouse on all the sh!t unravelling in NSW. Stuck his bits into the WA border dispute but pulled them out when he realised he was losing the court of public opinion. I thought he was pretty harmless initially when Turnbull got rolled but day by day he proves to be more of a pernicious cant than the previous.

  5. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Apparently Daryl was telling a fib when he claimed he ran over his iPad and phone with his tractor, proving cunning and intelligence are sometimes mutually exclusive.

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      Watching that latest David Attenborough show on Netflix got me a bit sad. Then I had this horrible premonition that he passed away in Dec 2020, capping off the worst year in living memory. The world will be poorer without him in it.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Indeed, the world would lose one of its few, and one of its greatest remaining, consciences. And weren’t the roll call of rolling statistics as to the state of the world over the decades of his life in that Netflix doco so prophetic/condemning?

        • Seeing his JuiceMedia interview made me sad. How old and frail he looks now. In his 90s, perhaps 1 of the greatest voices of reason of our time.

          I have to admit I had a tear in my eye toward the end of the Interview. I do worry about the future based on our current trajectory.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Our local council ward is a Lib vs Green contest. The sitting Green is a straight as a die, decent bloke, while the Lib allegedly as bent as can be and generally despised.

      So the Libs are running 3 dummy candidates, all masquerading as Independents. Each of the proxy candidates is giving their first preference to the actual Lib candidate.

      We’ve received numerous anonymous letterbox drops from “Concerned Local Citizens” claiming the sitting Green councilor supported a 19 story tower, when he was the only councilor to oppose it. (Thanks Labor & Lib members.)

      This seems to be a playbook. Sh!t sheets. Dirty tricks. Disingenuous candidates. It’s the only way they can get elected. It’s disgusting.

      And interestingly, the retired very wealthy types you’d expect to support the Blue Team are supporting the Green.

    • great article. journalism has undermined the health message from the start.
      Andrews should just turn his guns on the media. He has nothing to lose imo.

      • Agreed, great article. I have no love for Andrews, and I would be more than happy to see him under pressure for the right reasons, which West highlights at the back end of his article. But SKY have been an utter disgrace on this, wouldn’t know a fact if they fell over it. Recently AFR has started a campaign also, an extension of the entitled whining we have seen for months from lobbies that claim to represent small business but they sound like the usual rent seekers. Andrews made major mistakes before this kicked off, and again in April/May, which had major consequences. But he has fought hard to get lead us to near the right place. Lock downs have worked to bring down the virus level and masks will keep it down provided people stick to it. If they don’t, well we have already seen with the Frankston / Chadstone / Kilmore / Shepparton outbreak how quickly it spreads through people who don’t even know they’ve got it. And that’s with lock downs still on. I would prefer the lock down to run another fortnight, as we would have hit the 5/day if there had not been the 3 new outbreaks in the past fortnight. And because we have had those outbreaks, any fact based view of things would hold off on easing for another week. But I fear the political animals are not interested in fact.

      • what people miss though is the speed at which things were happening in late March, so a lot of the decisions had to be operational and made by people lower down the chain. Not that I know who made what decisions – I don’t,.
        People look at things now – where we are frozen in lockdown time – and forget what it was like then.

  6. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-16/land-tax-rises-catch-out-shack-owners-in-tasmania/12772350

    “In 2018 it was valued at $400,000, in 2019 it went up to $660,000 and this year there was a 20 per cent increase on that.”
    “[The land tax] was $4,000, then $6,500, this year it’s $8,500,” he said. “That’s totally inappropriate isn’t it, things just don’t go up that quickly.”

    When the shack value goes screaming that’s great and ignored but when the land tax rises at a similar rate it’s totally inappropriate.

    • They really went for the heart strings with that one. One wonders what they think an appropriate land tax rate is? One proposal I’ve heard is for everyone to value their own place and pay a tax on that amount. The twist is that the government then has the right to purchase your place at that value. That would make the world a bit more interesting.

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