Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Risk sentiment continues to slide here in Asia, except local stocks which took the headline fall in the latest unemployment figures at face value. The USD has firmed against most of the majors with gold and silver struggling, the former pushed back below the $1900USD per ounce level again:

The Shanghai Composite struggled throughout its session and finished with a scratch effort at 3339 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index fell sharply to close 1.3% lower at 24349 points.  Japanese stock markets also took a beating with the Nikkei 225 falling 0.5% to close at 23507 points despite Yen buying abating somewhat as the USDJPY pair bounced back from its early week falls, getting just above the 105.20 level:

The ASX200 was the standout, rising over 0.5% to finsih at 6210 points at a new monthly high, while the Australian dollar fell sharply on the unemployment print, heading straight down to the 71 handle and almost making a new weekly low:

Eurostoxx and S%P futures are down nearly 1% or so going into the European open with the S&P500 four hourly chart now breaking below short term support at the 3480 point level after being rebuffed at short term resistance at 3500 points:

The economic calendar includes the latest US initial jobless claims tonight.

Addendum: basic technical analysis for you out there – a classic inverted “bullish” head and shoulders pattern as the US goes into their winter:

 

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Comments

  1. 180k annual wages is poor according to SFM and Sam Armitage ….what would the majority on 60K_90K
    say?!!!!!
    Or chairman dan on 450k “giving” people $450 to isolate after a test ….

    • 2nd.

      $180k is poor when median house price in Sydney is north of $1m.

      Income does not equal wealth. Let’s have a wealth tax / death tax and stop the focus on income.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        We could start with taxing all income exactly the same.
        It sh!ts me to death that people can “earn” 160k per year tax free, sitting on their arses from their retirement investments and yet me actually earning the same income Ill have to pay a shyte load of tax, insurances and overheads not to mention the risk of injury and asbestosis working under houses, on and in roofs and digging deep holes.
        Makes me want to run down those old pr!cks with my shyte box work truck another overhead that I’d rather not have to own.

        • Are you incorporated ermo? If so your corporation will pay 30% company tax. The when you pay yourself a dividend (or a salary) you get to claim full franking credits back on your income tax (or deduct your salary from the companies income not pay company tax on it). It’s the same thing, net for net. There is nothing wrong with dividend imputation, the problem arises when people have extremely low or zero income tax rates under super rules. Dividend imputation prevents double taxation. I know it’s not popular on MB but I always thought they were attacking the wrong beast. The appropriate level of tax at the individual level gets paid no matter what, it’s the different rates for different people (like superanuants) that’s the real target.

          • You should charge your customers a more reasonable price. That way you wouldn’t be paying so much tax.
            Come to think of it, it is your customers that are really paying the tax. You are merely a go-between.

  2. “Women and young people give higher marks for Premier Andrews’ handling of his job than others

    Nearly two-thirds of women (63%) approve of the Premier Daniel Andrews’ handling of his job as Premier, down 5% points from two weeks ago, compared to 55% (up 1%) of men.

    Approval for the Premier’s handling of his job as Premier is heavily correlated to age. Nearly three-quarters of people aged under 35 (73%) approve compared to 62% aged 35-49, 55% aged 50-64 but only 42% of those aged 65+ years old.”

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8542-roy-morgan-survey-on-voting-intention-and-approvals-in-victoria-october-14-2020-202010130838

  3. Heard some interesting gossip from the old man – fella he talks to works in planning approvals for the council. Bunch of off the plan units aren’t selling so developers are going for recertification after selling to the early adopter residential suckers and getting the leftovers approved as short stay accommodation. Dad’s mate was horrified and figured it must be shady, did all the investigating, perfectly legal all he could do was rubber stamp it and approve.

    May be common knowledge to others but was news to me amd made me sad. Then I had a kebab, some bourbon and watered the lawn, less sad but still upset.

    • Doomsday is losing your parent or your partner from a virus that could’ve been avoided.
      BTW, the number of people dying each day from COVID is rising again – its over 6K per day worldwide, with new cases rising each day too (nearly 400K). Its rising again in the US, over 800 and will hit 1000+ per day once these new cases turn into another wave.
      1 million have died so far. Is that not Doomsday enough for you?

      • I’m comfortable with family or myself dying or becoming incapacitated from COVID. There’s no putting the toothpaste back in the tube the virus is here to stay.

        My conscience is clear.

        I could stop deaths by demanding people stop smoking, to not put that KFC drumstick in their mouth, by driving 20 km/h under the speed limit, by cutting alcohol intake, but I don’t.

        I’m not going through life scared of any virus, any cancer, any disease or death itself.

        • I can avoid smoking, eating KFC (except when hungover), cutting alcohol intake (yeh, nah). I have that choice. I don’t get that choice with CoVid because some cvnt decided they didn’t want to do a few simple things to make life for other people safer. This is about managing the virus, not eliminating it.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            School drop off this morning: Hundreds of adults wearing masks, except for one Deadsh!t who decides he’s too special to bother. It’s no stretch to think he doesn’t do any of the other basics either.

            Just like the truck driver that’s spread it to Kilmore and Shepperton.

            It’s these sort of Deadsh!ts that are making it hard to manage in Victoria.

          • China PlateMEMBER

            Well Arthur spreading covid in Kilmore sounds better than spreading it in say Mount Pleasant or Beauty Point

          • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

            I’d be that bloke without the mask at the school Arthur. Would absolutely do the same. Walk proud through all the obidient, scared, prisoner citizens with masks who are teaching their kids to be submissive and shatter their individual spirit. Someone has to lead the cultural revolution and it may as well start with a few brave social outcasts taking individual action in their communities and schools like throwing off their slave masks.

          • I’d be that bloke without the mask at the school Arthur. Would absolutely do the same. Walk proud through all the obidient, scared, prisoner citizens with masks who are teaching their kids to be submissive and shatter their individual spirit. Someone has to lead the cultural revolution and it may as well start with a few brave social outcasts taking individual action in their communities and schools like throwing off their slave masks.

            Exactly.

            I drive home from the pub drunk all the time for the same reasons.

          • “In Australia it’s all covered by Medicare.”

            In Australia it’s all covered by the taxpayer — fixed it for you.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Well, that’s an argument. And that’s your choice. But you don’t get to make that choice for others as your associated behaviours (going about business as usual) implicitly would.

          Not disimilar from spraying yourself with anthrax and wondering why you’ve got no mates sitting next to you on the bus to work that morning.

        • Finally, some realism and honesty.
          1.5 million are still dying of TB each year and all I read is p…ing and wailing about some 85 year old with heart disease dying with/from Covid and how we should all sacrifice ourselves and children’s future to give them the illusion of safety.

      • Have spoken to a range of people on this issue – those who are in favour of the current lockdowns are often comparing Victoria to what is happening globally. Those who are not in favour are more focused on other states with similar or lower numbers. Overall there is more frustration at the ongoing restrictions compared to a few months ago where people seemed more willing to make personal sacrifices for the collective.

    • It does appear that covid is a little less virulent than pandemic flu (as opposed to endemic flu). The 1958 flu pandemic killed 1.1 million but probably more. Given the change in world population, this pandemic would need to kill approx 2.8 million and it is unlikely to get there. It is certainly better than 1918 which killed up to 2% of the world population, which in today’s terms would be 150 million. It could be a function of better medical treatment, but this is biggest reaction to a health crisis for hundreds of years.

        • One thing that argues against that is the low numbers in Africa. In that part of the world we see some of the worst healthcare but covid numbers are low, which suggests that young age is much more important or there is a lack of credible data coming out of Africa.

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            How much reliable testing do you think is going on in Africa though? I’d be shocked if some of those countries had more labs and test kits than Sydney.
            But anyway, this will probably spawn a thousand PhD’s who dissect the pandemic from many angles and maybe by the end of it we will learn something. That’s the hope out of this exercise.

          • Less Woke More BlokeMEMBER

            Or else they’re really practised at managing and containing infectious diseases. You know, like Ebola

          • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

            Ive read that the reason for low numbers in Africa is speculated as the wide availability of hydroxychloroquine. Well established as a medicine. They take it like lollies.

          • The reason I think it might be about data is that South Africa have a almost 700,000 cases and are 11th on the list, whereas Zimbabwe, Namibia. Mozambique and Botswana next door only has approx. 30,000 reported cases combined. Border restrictions are not strong either. Something doesn’t seem completely right there.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            It’s totally because of the small percentage of the population over 65 in Africa.
            Some of those countries have almost 50% of the population under 15!
            And unlike influenza Covid almost never kills the young.

          • A few things to note for africa

            1) Infant/young death rate and lower mean life = those alive are ‘healthier’ and morelikely to survive the rona – survivorship bais in the population
            2) Their hospitals are build to manage respiratory illnesses (think TB), with high ceilings with airflow gaps etc.

    • …you mean death rates with lockdowns and people being extra, extra careful?

      Maybe we shouldn’t wear seatbelts because not that many people die from crashes? That is, go back to not wearing seat belts.

      Why do people treat lockdown scenarios as if they are not lockdown scenarios?

      • If Melburnians are getting hysterical about a lack of mask-wearing among one or two denizens they’d better nix their plans to move to QLD. Nobody wears a mask up here. They’ll suffer cardiac-arrest if they come.

        • I’ve seen maybe half a dozen masks in Canberra in the last month. It’s just not a thing here.

          An acquaintance of mine is a paediatric surgeon. A few months ago he only appeared in public in a full on mask and headgear and gloves etc. Last weekend he looked entirely normal.

  4. Gladys the ole bag had a meeting to discuss “niceties” with a property developer…

    I bet she was wearing something black and lacy and the developer had a riding crop

    • Find a tax accountant that is in the know. They may be able to also advise on the legal implications or at least point you towards a solicitor that specialises in trust setups. It depends what you’re trying to achieve. Legal protections (deaths, marriages! Etc) or tax advantages. I’m far from an expert but have sat in on many a discussion with both professions regarding a family trust (and an incorporated company and a holding company) that I’ve been involved in. They ain’t that cheap to setup correctly with the right advice,, needs to be worth it.

        • that is what I think. if polls start telling DEMS something else they may agree to stimulus, otherwise not a chance. Or they may cut a deal in the last week when it’s too late for Trump to take photos while signing the checks. No one will see any money prior to the elections.

        • Ronin8317MEMBER

          Barrett nomination means there will not be a deal anyway : there is not enough time to do both the nomination and the stimulus bill. When Trump called it off, it leaves the Dem leadership off the hook with the ‘centerist’ Democrats.

  5. It’s the science…
    “The World Health Organization’s Regional Director for Europe Hans Kluge says governments should stop enforcing lockdowns, unless as a “last resort,” because the impact on other areas of health and mental well-being is more damaging.“

    “ It’s so important to understand that the deaths of COVID-19 will be far less than the deaths caused by societal lockdown when the economy is ruined”

    “ Kluge’s warning matches that of the WHO’s special envoy on COVID-19, Dr David Nabarro, who recently told the Spectator in an interview that world leaders should stop imposing lockdowns as a reflex reaction because they are making “poor people an awful lot poorer.”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/who-europe-director-says-governments-should-stop-enforcing-lockdowns

    I await the outrage at the source being ZH.

  6. Reckon Gladys and Darryl will be doing the mother of all Dan Murphy’s run this Friday arvo!!

    In other news it does seem that there are several acceptable forms of our favourite word that pass muster at the moment

    I especially liked ‘cunce’. Don’t tell me AI is stealing my job anytime soon!!

    See you at Dan’s tomorrow around 1630 (best to avoid the rush)

    Also, that Wombats coach is right scum, if ever that word had meaning.

    That is all.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      If they want to scrap up a bit of cash after getting the punt I reckon channel 7 would pay em top dollar to go on the next season of “Dancing with the stars”
      How much did Pauline get for going on?

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