Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Risk markets are having a relatively good start to the week outside Japan with the Wall Street rally from Friday echoed across the region. The Yuan has been the focus on currency markets, with offshore trading lower after a weekend PBOC move now factored in. Other undollars are firming with gold holding on to its Friday night breakout above the $1920USD per ounce level:

The Shanghai Composite returned from its holiday and has surged over 2%, up through the 3350 point level while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is following along, up over 2.2% in a solid breakout above 24600 points. Meanwhile Japanese stock markets are in retreat mode due to Yen buying with the Nikkei 225 looking to close about 0.25% lower around 23560 points. The selloff in the USDJPY pair has continued despite a better open this morning, now below previous ATR trailing support on the four hourly chart and to a weekly low:

The ASX200 is having a solid session, gaining a further 0.5% to close at 6121 points, extending its gains above the 6000 point barrier. The Australian dollar gapped slightly lower as expected this morning before pushing on as it makes further gains above the 72 handle, but looking overextended in the short term:

Eurostoxx futures are up around 0.5% with Wall Street closed tonight for a holiday, the S&P500 futures four hourly chart is still looking to extend further above the 3400 point level and perhaps return to the previous highs nearer 3600 points:

The economic calendar is quiet and a bit Euro-centric tonight with a few ECB speeches to keep an eye out for.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

  1. Something has changed in Australia today.
    After a blissful six months or so of barely a contrail to be seen or jet to be heard, there were two jets tracking each other north every fifteen minutes or so most of the day while I was out fencing – just like the pre-wuflu days. (I live a three hour drive north of Sydney directly under the northbound flight corridor).
    Something is moving somewhere…

    • I think they were the Qantas “flights to nowhere” sightseeing flights that the greens are up in arms about – because plane emissions matter more than another 5 million in population ….

      • Its hilarious that that greens had nothing to do with immigration or economic policies for decades, but because they don’t and won’t be sucked into the race debate under the camouflage of an economic policy debate, some mistake that for all their other policy stances being rubbish … you can’t make this stuff up thingy …

        Leads one to think all the economic policy before was fine and its just a matter of wrong sorts spoiling the views.

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            You should love them they’re your useful idiots, high rise Harry should pay them a commission

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          “because they don’t and won’t be sucked into the race debate”

          Lol Skip.

          Before 1996 the Greens had Zero population growth policies for the sake of the AUSTRALIAN environment.
          But After John Howards 1996 election victory he clearly “sucked” the Greens into a Race/ defacto immigration debate big time!
          Sucked into advocating for open boarders policies that the Vast majority of our population doesn’t want.
          They have become a bunch of vacuous, virtue signalling, inner city trendies who don’t give 2 fks for the plight of Working class Australians,…of ANY skin colour.
          Their entire policy platform a knee jerk response to their bitter social conservative enemies.
          Especially their policies on Refugees.
          Bob Brown must be so disappointed in what they have become.

          • Coming from someone that supports the NEW [right wing economic] labour camp its quite hilarious EP.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            Pffff!,…the leading lights of the Right AND #FakeLeft of the ALP don’t seem to keen on the kind of rank and file Democracy Id see My party embrace.
            But I stick around because I think that if the democratic reform of Australia’s traditional working class party can’t be achieved with in a party of over 55000 members, those party members democratically deciding the party’s policy genders then there id almost zero chance of it being achieved on a national scale during our sham elections citizens have almost 0 input on what agenda are put forward to be decided on.
            I advocate for a real left wing that means IMHO advocating for real democratic decision-making by the majority,…by us fling plebs Skip.
            How does that make me a Riwinger again Skip?
            It’s not like you to confuse the 2
            That’s usually Smithys domain.

          • Bob Brown must be so disappointed in what they have become.

            Why ? The policies (the actual policies, not the FUD you regurgitate from your right-wing media mates) are basically unchanged from when he was leader.

          • Because of your lack of policy advocacy aside from immigration and some ill formed notion of democracy.

            Yet when the Greens put out a comprehensive policy platform but it does not satisfy your immigration concerns all the rest of it is rubbish. This is in full knowledge of what the two legacy party’s have been up to for decades but yeah democracy. If memory serves were pro Morris’s concept of democracy, the market sort.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            it’s always your either for unlimited immigration or next to none at all with partisan like you ,Smithy AND Hanson.
            The numbers should be less and everyone knows it.
            But worse from the Greens is the way they talk about “White Privilege” in exactly the same way 1930s Germans spoke about privileged Jews.
            Wait untill that one comes home to roost!
            They are dangerous in my view.
            And just like the pro corporate plutocrats of IPA, LNP and depressingly the ALP they (the Greens) loath the thought of being democratically lead and directed by the lower classes and instead embrace the same right to rule mentality of the rest of them, the same mentality of any establishment class.

          • I advocate for a real left wing that means IMHO advocating for real democratic decision-making by the majority,…

            https://greens.org.au/policies/constitutional-reform-and-democracy

            Australians to be able to trigger a parliamentary debate on petitions which receive a fixed number of signatures.

            The use of participatory and deliberative democracy mechanisms to supplement parliamentary processes as a form of review and innovation.

            To establish full legislative autonomy for a territory parliament to ensure that their democratic processes cannot be overruled by the Federal Parliament.

      • @skip the Greens’ is a sin of omission – if they really cared about the environment, they would have fought extreme immigration all the way. Which makes them rank hypocrites, not to mention enablers.

        • This.

          The Greens are the inverse and use the race card to sideline the immigration/population debate, so they’re culpable in my books.

          You can’t be a serious environmental party without a serious population policy. They quietly dispensed with it in the 90’s and then have done seemingly everything to avoid having the debate by throwing out the ‘r’ word or sidelining it into refugees.

          In my view, a lot of the Greens current constituency are ironically a lot of old Lab/Lib voters who got wealthy from the economics of the last 40 years (primarily inner city land values) and have now attached themselves to boutique social issues instead of the root causes. SAP offers an alternative to them but still on the fence about their performance so far.

          • You can’t be a serious environmental party without a serious population policy. They quietly dispensed with it in the 90’s and then have done seemingly everything to avoid having the debate by throwing out the ‘r’ word or sidelining it into refugees.

            The majority of local environmental issues are independent of population. Land clearing, pollution, etc, are primarily driven by export markets and profits.

          • I’d disagree with that DrS, One of the biggest issues we face where I live is over-development and habit destruction and amenity degradation from densification. Birds and animals are in significant decline and local infrastructure is highly overloaded. Also increased traffic etc takes its toll – passed another dead echidna just the other week. The extreme economic population growth could be independent from this theoretically, but we know that it is not, it is a critical part of the over-development land price model. The silence from the Greys on this is deafening.

          • Land clearing for other reasons (eg: farming & mining) is an order of magnitude greater and is quite vocally opposed by (usually only) the Greens.

            (As is clearing for urban sprawl, for that matter.)

            You could stop immigration tomorrow and most environmentally destructive behaviour would continue nearly unchanged.

        • That’s a load of BS and hand waving from the core complaint against the Greens regardless of all other policies.

          So tell me how both legacy parties fair on environmental issues and how that has any relevance to one idpol sore spot for greens with some – nada.

          • Your joking right I’ve watched the debacle for a few decades let alone know from history that when economies go south the others and the poor are always the scapegoat or via it a common paradigm that initially pulls signification pop to the hard right and nationalism and jingoism.

            None of the neoliberal economic policies decades in the making were or had anything to do with immigrants or poor people. I saw the same dynamics being played out on a regional or state level back in the US a long time ago E.g. red lining is not an immigration issue, reduced or removed workers rights is not an immigration issue, wage theft is not an immigration issue, what all of them are is class issues.

            The immigration wedge is just a distraction from far more fundamental economic and social factors.

          • Yeah you keep saying stuff but never seem to back it up, its a meaningless drive by.

            I would be surprised if your even remotely knowable about neoliberalism or have read Philip Mirowski or others, so making ignorant statements about immigration and some aspect of neoliberalism is frankly absurd.

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            What’s the weapon of choice skip, and we’re talking about Australia here, you know that country you shopped

          • All wrong I never shopped and I don’t view all actions as being from a market framework of processes. I moved here because of a relationship started back in the US with an Australian, she had to come back after visa expired and I followed after squaring things up in the U.S. At that point in time a choice was made on certain public services and behind the times with the U.S. neoliberal time line. Personally I gave away quite a bit of money and lifestyle to move here so it was not a monetary or status decision at all.

            And again you have not substantiated your accusation nor shown you have the knowledge to make such claims.

          • https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-22/doxxing-the-new-weapon-of-choice-for-trolls/10833428

            I would not call it an Australian choice, but a hard core fundie choice, when some feel civil conversation does not advance their agendas. Which at the end of the day pretty much sums up the depth of their arguments from beginning, heaps of sophist rhetoric with shifting goal posts on a sandy plot, followed by increasing anger when their beliefs are not accepted as truth. Then some wonder why its comparable to religious devotion.

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            So thats what you resort to cos you just cannot bring yourself to answer my question, that mass immigration is the life blood or weapon of choice of the hollowed out neoliberal carcass that is the australian economy

            you know you have doled it out harder and for longer then most here combined. i give up.

          • Again I don’t think you have any grounding in what the term neoliberalism is or means let alone where it came from nor who promoted it. I can’t help it that many were chasing fantasizes offered up years ago and now find themselves personally exposed to it, rather than it being exported and extorted on 2nd 3rd world nations.

            Per se I don’t think immigration is a factor in tree clearance for cattle or RE development, nor coral bleaching, or a plethora of other environmental dramas because they are all industry driven.

            This is complicated by creating demand by immigration which precedes the currant outrage and how it effect some at this stage of its evolution. Again I’ve seen this dynamic over and over in the U.S, since I was born and can trace it back through history.

            So my point is again, immigration is not the corner stone, but a factor of it, deal with the prior and not the post and the rest will sort itself out.

          • Good goat with the left memes … there is no left in a atomistic individualistic market place of ideas because there is no collective barging power and no security … where everything has a price and can be bought.

            Look as I said you could stop immigration today and the idea that supply and demand would magically increase wages et al is a myth … capital can just close its wallet and find better places to deploy it – with increased rights or wait till everything is at fire sale prices and then consolidate its hold on assets.

            I though Hudson’s example of Brazil, Adam Curtis example of NYC bonds and many other historical references bore that out. None of this is new, its just your proximity to it and how it effects you in the here and now, yet I remember how many were pro such when at arms length away from it, and benefited from it, as long as they felt superior e.g. how do you like that cheap overseas stuff in lieu of your share of productivity … eh … and what about their prosperity.

            Its like those that were pro Gillard for taking the totalitarian out and in the next moment front an industry gathering that she had their backs and was not subject to anything that might spoil their or their investors parade.

    • Less Woke More BlokeMEMBER

      I remember returning from our honeymoon March 2014 to our serene farm only to have a JQ Airbus in a
      Landing pattern fly at 2000ft overhead. Asked the in laws WTAF! Changed flight path into BNK.

      Air Services – too bad

      One of the reasons we sold and have not missed it

      Saw the flights recommencing and thought of the new
      Owners . Whip birds kookas currawong wedgies yellow tail black cockies Maggie’s and then the 9am
      Sydney to Ballina

      • Yellow-tailed black cockatoos are currently conducting their seasonal assault of the local she-oaks. Their cries still confuse me a bit as I grew up in red-tailed habitat and didn’t know there were different species.

        Red feather, yellow feather.
        Red feather, yellow feather.

        Sqawk!!!

        • I was in Kings park in toowoomba on wed
          a lady there had 2 of those macaw type parrots from the amazon
          the birds were about 2x the size of a black cockatoo, say 5x the size of the regular galah
          they were free flying in the trees,with all the smaller birds, mynahs atacking them
          magnificent colours and a squark like a truck horn
          every colour of the rainbow.

          • Wow! I’ve only ever seen them kept in cages 😔. Them little yella beaks know how to hassle!

      • I hear your pain. Used to live similarly under the KSA 3rd runway flight path. Here they’re at FL35 or higher, so it’s just ds a background hiss. As for Jetstar, I’m not sure they’ll survive the new normal…

    • I’m in Brisbane live southern subs directly under flight path. In the twenty minutes it took me to roll and smoke a fat one in my comfy garage three planes have just come into land.

      • Used to live on Junction Rd, Morningside. I hear ya (when there’s no planes taking off or landing).

        Did get the bonus of seeing the odd fighter or bomber up close that use the civilian airport from time to time.

        • Yes , that’s at the end of the street without going into to much detail.

          Friends who come visit from abroad marvelled at the underside of the planes from the pool in the backyard, used to say don’t worry if you missed it there’ll be another in a couple of minutes.

          • Ha, that about sums it up.

            Little bit of Elton to round this one out:

            That’s where we meet
            That’s where we meet
            Me and you rendezvous
            In the club at the end of the street

  2. almost forgot to mention.. yesterday went to the beach and we were surprised to see only half the crowd we expected to see. is it possible for people to started to panic and went into full savings mode?
    Has anyone noticed if traffic was lighter than normal?

  3. Win the Electoral College

    Daryl Maguire’s defence is that the brown paper bags in his car were not from accepting bags of cash but for putting over Gladys’s head.

  4. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    A lot of people reminiscing on recreational air travel the other night at my 50th.
    Had me thinking about the time I was flying back home into Sydney after a surfing trip to WA
    It was during or near to the closing ceremony of the Sydney 2000 Olympics.
    I remember the in flight movie, not Infront of my seat but on a little telly elevated above the seats about 6 rows down. It was U-571 I think.
    While watching the movie 2 flight attendants, one pulling and the other pushing the same coffee cart started to pass me. The attendant walking backwards had high heels on and was about to walk back onto a young infant who had just crawled into the Isle.
    I had just enough time to quickly grab the edge of the cart and stop it abruptly, rocking all the items on top.
    The young flight attendant glared down on me and said angrily “We serve the front of the plane first!”
    I smiled awkwardly and quickly said “no Im not trying to be served, there’s a baby behind you”
    She looked back and down to see the parent lifting the child out of the Isle.
    She blushed quite noticeably and apologized profusely before quickly moving on.
    Sometime later the oldest flight attendant (the boss one I presumed) came up to me and started asking me questions about if I had flown with Qantas before and if I had joined their frequent flyers and some other banter.
    I was wondering if she was only being nice and talking to me because of the earlier incident when she asked if I had ever been up in the cockpit during landing before and if I’d like to do so on this flight.
    I would like that very much I immediately said and she said she’d come and get me about 40 minutes out from landing.
    I got to sit in the seat in between and behind the Pilot and CoPilot and had a great view coming into Sydney and we even had to do one of those loops around Sydney before landing which had us banking and seeing into Olympic stadium and down on Ermo shops!
    There’s Ermo Wollies! I said but the Pilot and Copilot seemed uninterested.
    All up not a bad little reward for saving the passengers from the discomfort of a screaming baby for the rest of the flight.

    Of course after 9/11 a year later, no more Joy rides up front allowed.
    Wonder if that gets the pilots extra, behind locked doors, slap tickle time with the flight attendants these days?
    🤔

  5. Meanwhile, the v_brancy rolls on, and on:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-12/public-servant-haider-ali-found-guilty-of-rape-in-second-trial/12758290

    Haider Ali crawled into the woman’s bed and assaulted her, the jury has found . It is the second time Ali has faced the charges, after he fled the country during his first trial. He has pleaded guilty to fleeing the country and will face sentencing next month.

    Canberra man Haider Ali, 38, fled to Pakistan before the jury had delivered its verdict in his first trial in the ACT Supreme Court.

    He was later discovered living in the United Kingdom, and was extradited back to Australia two years later, facing three charges including rape and committing acts of indecency on the woman.

    Another fantastic addition to Australian society!! Cultural enrichment, wot!!

  6. Canberra shutins! Thursday 15th Is the date of the next meeting of the Loyal non-Royal Society of Furious Oaths, Patriotic Ranting, Loose Talk and Ill-advised Quips (ACT chapter). In other words we talk about MB stuff and peel back the pub’s paintwork with the force of our unassailable logic and blistering vocabulary.

    Let LSWCHP or me know if you’re interested and we’ll keep an eye out for you. Venue is 8pm, Meating Room, Weston. (No, Harry – despite the name, it is a legit, regular bar. Fair point though).

  7. This “herd immunity” strategy is not part of a legitimate scientific debate. It has been rejected by key scientific leaders in the US, UK, Germany, and World Health Organization. Proponents of “herd immunity” haven’t tried to address even basic questions about the strategy, such as how many households would need to be locked down or how many people would still get sick from endemic COVID-19 once herd immunity was achieved.

    The proposal is not evidence-based and does not reflect even a minority view in the scientific community. Rather, it appears to be the product of an organized, well-funded political campaign in the US and UK. The UK campaign has been described elsewhere. In the US, the campaign appears to be largely coordinated by two right-wing think tanks — the Hoover Institution and the American Institute for Economic Research — in coordination with the Trump administration. Key elements of this campaign have included:

    https://medium.com/@jmfeldman/the-herd-immunity-strategy-isnt-part-of-a-scientific-debate-about-covid-19-abddf6bc7c13

    “American Institute for Economic Research” that name again ….

    • The worse case scenario have become a strategy. Trump surviving COVID-19 will give this even more momentum.

      The one unknown right now is how many of COVID-19 survivor will have other health issues. With SARS, chronic fatigue is found in 50% of patients who survived. The worse case scenario is millions and millions of people ends up unable to work after catching the virus : the economic consequence will be worse than death.

    • You do realise that humans and viruses have coexisted since forever and eventual herd immunity was the only strategy that existed right. That’s how we live with the common cold and the flu. In the likely scenario that a vaccine never arrives (unlikely in that a vaccine has never yet been created for a corona virus) then what strategy do you suppose we adopt? Let me guess that it starts with some fascistic dictate on how you think I should be allowed to live my life according your plan.

      • The problem I have with your perspective is the ideology proceeds the question and then put in a completely irrelevant historical back drop that has no relationship to the knowledge we have today or how our currant reality differs from the past.

        I think the link clearly shows the politicization of a public health issue by a small group, with an agenda, and when confronted with circumstances that get in the way are quite comfortable with using deception – misinformation to advance their would view by hook or crook. How such machinations are considered ethical in any form and then expect to be taken seriously on any topic is beyond comprehension.

        As far as your disdain at being told anything, by any one, I suggest a deserted island.

Leave a reply

You must be logged in to post a comment. Log in now