Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar torn between election heaven and virus hell

A flat finish to the week for risk markets here in Asia in response to the continues risk-on damn-the-COVID-torpedoes and election shenanigans in the US overnight, despite even more cases as a big second wave of COVID-19 in Europe breaks out. The USD is losing ground against most of the majors with gold putting on a nice spike above the $1900USD per ounce level, after holding on to short term support just below $1890:

The Hang Seng Index is dead flat going into the close, up 0.1% to 24216 points while Japanese stock markets are in a slight retreat due to Yen buying with the Nikkei 225 looking to close about 0.4% lower around 23562 points. The stall in the USDJPY pair has turned into a selloff below the 106 handle as it looks set to return to the previous session highs (black horizontal line) at the 105.80 level:

The ASX200 is the only bourse having a solid session, gaining a further 0.3% to be at 6121 points, extending its gains above the 6000 point barrier. The Australian dollar is pushing on and wants to get back to the previous two week high just below the 72 handle, but is running out of puff:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up only slightly with the S&P500 four hourly chart looking to extend further above the 3400 point level but I still note that bearish looking rising wedge pattern on the four hourly chart – what crap will Trump pull tonight out of the Twitter basketcase?

The economic calendar finishes the week with a whimper with a fairly clean calendar, some tertiary European releases that might interest. All eyes will continue on the clusterfridge that is the US elections. November can’t come soon enough….

Stay safe and have a good weekend!

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Comments

  1. Arthur Schopenhauer

    The discovery of truth is prevented more effectively, not by the false appearance things present and which mislead into error, not directly by weakness of the reasoning powers, but by preconceived opinion, by prejudice.
    AS

    • “What gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know. It’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.” (M. Twain)

    • Some nice sentiment there, which I accept for the most part.

      However, it’s not possible for the humankind to know truth in and of themselves; we only deal with utilitarian models based on axiom sets.

      Claiming ‘truth’, therefore, requires a claim at least in part exterior to the human mind.

      That’s my toilet philosophy for the week.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      And it’s about to get longer…

      The “discovery” of truth, you say? Nah.
      The “acknowledgement” of truth, however? Yep.

      I believe Mig makes this point above. Possibly.

      PS Which for a country that bases it’s existence on something that contains the words “we hold these truths to be self-evident” is hilariously ironic.

      • Know IdeaMEMBER

        Can you constructively and reasonably define the word “truth” in a way that satisfies the requirements of its usage in that circumstance? Or is it just easier to assume your current interpretation is the absolute, unquestionable benchmark?

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Yes.

          What is judged or known to be right/correct by those who society recognises as those that *should* know.

          As time goes by, hopefully, society will get better at the recognising part. Wasn’t doing so well with the whole ‘who should we listen to about the sun revolving around the Earth’ thing, but we’ve gotten better re medicine and science since then (it would appear so anyway). It’s either that, or wait for another set of tablets to turn up.

      • Know IdeaMEMBER

        I suspect that would depend upon how you define the term “truth”. Is truth that which holds for all time and space and for all beings past, present and future? Or are we dealing with a cultural truth as has been alluded to above?

        • No not for “all time and space”
          Just from the beginning of social organism until present.
          If you are formed by the social organism and then due to delusion, fear and digging in choose to discard it, at that point you will never know truth.

          • Libertarians are formed from society thus negating your childish negation.

            For what you said to hold true they’d never exist! But logic, like philosophy, isn’t your strong suit.

            You can’t even make an argument that holds true in the very limited confines that you defined it ffs!!

          • Libertarianism is an artificial coping strategy to deal with the underlying truth of social organism which threatens the ego of some.

          • In other words, “Libertarians” are deformed through a process of rejecting the underlying reality of society which formed them.
            its a deformation process.

          • That’s an absurd strawman as society is not government and certainly not imposition of arbitrary protocols. This is readily evident by the fact we’ve had societies of all kinds in this world – even libertarian ones! Like skippy favourite Mount Pellarin…

            Again, you are incorrect and imprecise.

          • “we’ve had societies of all kinds in this world – even libertarian ones!”

            Internal contradiction. But I appreciate it may be hard to see that when you have grown up in the shadow of the meticulously placed (replaced) invisible wall and incessant marketing post 89.

            Fortunately some see through the marketing.

          • btw. where did I say or imply society was government?
            Silly childish ploy to derail discussion along pop libertarian lines.

  2. Is it just me or is the strategizing/salivating about the planning/execution of the Friday Arvo Dan Murphy’s run starting earlier and earlier in the day?

      • The GP and Cardiologist are on my case relentlessly these days. But for this evening I can report success, and a brisk trade being done at the registers at 2145. Almost gave birth to a hernia hoisting the slabs back to the car.

        I reckon a forklift-to-the-boot service would go astray.

        • I love to hit dans an hour before they shut on a week night so I can shop in peace, I even make sure I go to a less popular store further away than my local.

          Gives me heaps of time to study the wines, find the specials and peruse to the max. I probably spend more this way, but find a lot of things I wouldn’t if I went on Friday peak hour and just did a hit and run. The challenge is to save the goodies til the weekend lol.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            The discontinued items bin has some real gems in it from time to time. Always worth a look and the ocassional blind punt also.

  3. Just reposting some absolute WISDOM from Reusa on yesterdays macro afternoon re albo at true thai massage (allegedly) Dulwich hill. It is a keeper!!

    reusachtigeMEMBER
    October 8, 2020 at 8:20 pm
    Gawd if you’re gonna get busted at a rub and tug make it better than a soft-core lounge. The girls there don’t even strip off. They actually do a proper massage and only ever hint at the potential to massage the special regions towards the very end. In a proper massage lounge a massage is optional and the girls are hot, naked quickly, and get straight to the good bits. If you’re not a stayer then take your massage afterwards. Far more enjoyable.

    The Traveling Wilbur
    October 8, 2020 at 9:19 pm
    Reusa’s just posted the most well structured, thoughtful, advice, ever, on this site. Hope you’re all paying attention. Presence of greatness we are in.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Just to add to this, if it’s called a “Thai Massage”, like the one in Dulwich Hill, you actually run the risk of never even being offered the soft-core option. You can leave frustrated. Best bet is always the non-descript neon lit “Massage” sign above the door. And if there’s stairs involved it’s on!

      • Don’t you hate jobkeeper and jobseeker handouts , without them massage prices would be half or less!!!

  4. YES!!! CHN is at $3, way before I thought it would. My $500 has turned into a paper $10,900 (2000% gains are NICE). First time that has ever happened to me. Hopefully there will be some good drill results from their Vic goldfields drilling soon (which is why I bought them, the Julimar discovery was an unexpected bonus as far as I’m concerned). Now if I can only have a few more of these and I might be able to get that little place in the remote country-side without debt

      • I’m going to hold. I read all the drill results etc., they’ve got tens of million in the bank and have only scratched the surface of Julimar so far. They’re looking for another Fosterville (of course) so it’d be dumb to sell out now. They appear to be serially successful at finding deposits. If the gold drill results disappoint then I can always hold for more Julimar results. Mum and Dad are supportive so I can parasite off them a while longer and I need more than 10K to get a house anyway. IF housing wasn’t so expensive I wouldn’t need to take so much risk, but it is what it is, so fck it, gotta play the game. Life changing results come from patience and appropriate risk assessment. I’ll be ok regardless of what happens.

    • well done. I am hoping on TTM to do well. PXX struggles so I sold some at 3.7c and bought half back again at 3.3c.
      REE could be a big mover next week as I think they will release another batch of assays.

      • Yeah I’m undecided on punting $500 on REE. I’m reluctant to chase something that is obviously on a tear because I’ve been burnt several times before and have had to wait years for a turnaround, or have still got a dog waiting to be sold. I’ve got ARU, NTU and then VML and IXR (those two were gold explorers who switched to REE and I’ve made back some pretty big loses on them, and them some) so I’ve got decent rare earths exposure. So far NTU is my big rare earth loser, the others are doing ok, esp VML. I’m trying not to be greedy and also acknowledge my limitations, which atm are dealing with being back at work, trying to ensure I pass all my fitness requirements, update all my qualifications and improve my health. Plus I’m at about capacity for the number of stocks that I can read all the market updates on

        • LYC looks good in the RE’s space… their exposure to USA RE’s demand in coming years as tensions with China heat up will result in a re-rating of its SP…

          but I guess you’re focussing on emerging players…

          • I bought the emerging re companies several years ago when nothing much was happening, more as a strategic but highly speculative buy and content to wait for the market to move. I guess it is moving now, and I’m much clearer on the changed (or evolving) geopolitics so I might consider LYC as some less risky ballast. Though I didn’t like their Malaysian processing as I thought it had too much uncertainty and risk associated with it. TBH I’d prefer processing to occur in Oz if we mine it here.

        • Gold is a commodity/asset with huge historical emotional baggage, really very little productive value these days beyond an almost Jungian echo … almost like a Cecil B. DeMille movie where everyone [tm] runs into the church during a cyclone in hopes of divine intervention do to proximity until the sky’s break and that beam of light [tm] moment.

          Oh course this vindicates the esoteric belief by proxy as a matter of randomness with a huge heaping of bias confirmation, but then again how many humans throughout history are a reflection of Chris’s hilarious trump cartoon of late ….

          • RE has no equivalency to basic commodities from a classical notion of investment, which supports social good or services to uplift humanity, yet then some promoted the concept of owning a depreciating consumable and gear regional economies to facilitate that objective because externalities could be off shored eg. most market machinations are about avoiding the sell side Bernays day of reckoning.

          • While buying explorers may have something in common with buying a Lotto ticket, being exposed to gold is not.

            Gold has reliably been ‘money’ for 5,000 years and nothing you or the rabble of other jealous cretins on this blog think or say will change that. The evidence is in and you can ignore it all you want, deride the metal as useless — but it won’t the change the fact. You have an ideological attachment to a premise that has almost no substance — you are literally rationalising that 5,000 years of market validation is about to come to a crashing end. I don’t mean to be rude but you are quite clearly sh*t at ‘math’, because the odds ain’t on your side. Just saying …

          • ‘5000 years of market validation’

            The *State* imposed it’s value. Hardly “market validation”.
            Even today The Fed recognizes it’s holdings at the State imposed Bretton Woods price.

            If you take away the States value ascribed by law, the worthless metal has… no (immaterial) value.

          • The non ideological anthro does not support your emotional argument E.g. first and foremost it was a legal attribute by force used as a tool of taxation in facilitating war over other nations. The rape of weaker nations and people aside to source this quasi religious iconography aside is a strange tail of cognitive dysfunction.

            Remind me again who the the principle funders of AET were and what compelled them too do so – ????? – that spat with the Rothschilds and how that played out for everyone else … but yeah … morals ….

          • agree with Skippy. The State seized via conquest then hoarded the stuff to prescribe a value (ignore part about taxation) to the unit of account in order to protect bond holders.
            Then during the gold exchange standard States fought over each others hoards via deflationary competition.
            …Market forces.

          • I would state that is probably the most concise thing I’ve read from you, disagreements aside, its Galilean in perspective.

        • The punch line being the ethnicity of the owners and investors of which many are completely aware of the broader anti social dynamics, of which, is compounded by their never ending wobbling on about how poor people keep stealing from the rich.

          Dead set know of family friends in the bush that regale such events as owners, at dinner or drinks, and don’t bat an eye … free will, caveat emptor, beating will continue till intelligence [?????] improves (screwee vs screwed) et al …

          Yet the day those government checks stop their businesses [?????] would be vaporized and everything dependent on those cash flows with it … ramifications of that paradigm are something to behold ….

          • Skip, one of our own (and most deserving) has had a big win — at least have the courtesy and decency to congratulate her (or not comment at all if it really eats you up that badly). FFS.

          • So as a classically minded sort, by your reckoning, please denote the labour involved in reaping this harvest ….

            Seems like a case of the bloke of recent that fat fingered a bet a the track and accidentally fat fingered a zero which gifted him a cool 600K.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/author/richard-smith/page/3

            PS would be really cool when you would like to confront reality and not something you consume out of some can … that satisfied your emotional needs.

    • Well done. I had 300k of those bought between 10-20c. Sold 3/4 around around 40c and a few more along the way left with around 30k now.
      As you said came out of the blue but certainly looking the goods for a massive discovery in hot commodities. Well done for holding. Wish I held more!

      • Well given your outlay I can’t blame you for the 40cent sell, definitely a prudent move. At least you still have 30K to ride the rest of the discovery upswing. Think of how you’d feel if you’d sold it all!

      • Yes I’m aware of the Lassonde curve, and I plan to take that into account when selling.
        Haha yeah Reus didn’t respond. I’m a tad disappointed tbh. Ah what could have been!

    • Nice work Popcod! May I ask how/where does one start learning about this? I have long wondered how people learn to start investing? (Or is this trading — have no stomach for that).

      • I ‘invest’ (which is really speculating, i.e. buy and hold for usually more than a year), I don’t trade. You learn through bitter experience of making mistakes. You can read and research and find good teachers (youtube and the internet is full of them) but all the right instruction doesn’t help when it comes to actually taking action (buy/selling) and properly understanding what the investment advice actually means. Some of the strongest emotions, fear and greed (even if you like to lie to yourself and say you’re not greedy, or afraid of losses) are involved and you absolutely must control them, which is really freaking hard. Once you make your mistakes (hopefully not too large) you realise you need to learn and then you seek out people (or better teachers than the ones you were using) to teach you. And you have to really listen to what they say and analyse it and you and your behaviours/emotions critically. I have bought several subscriptions which have their pros and cons, these days I act on maybe 10% of their recommendations. Being brutally honest with yourself (most people can’t/don’t do that because it is painful) and having a clear strategy help (I didn’t start off with one but I’ve now evolved one which I think is suitable to me and my life goals; part of that strategy includes never buying more than $505 of shares at a time, that’s how I manage risk plus I’m unfortunately a low income earner these days). Also you need to devote significant time and intellectual energy to it regardless of if you are trading or ‘investing/speculating’. Funnily enough I can do this with a health condition that involves some episodic cognitive impairment because I’m single so it’s my money (no partner issues) and because I can’t have an all-absorbing career but I still have spare intellectual capacity because my part time employment is not all consuming, and this is one way to have emotional adventures and evolution in a life that is lived less fully than I would like. I would suggest to only get involved in this if you can put in what is required to have a chance at being successful.

          • Thank you. It is only this year that I find myself actually starting to believe that I might pull this off, (I started buying shares in 2012, so it has been a long learning curve but life gets in the way). I was down 45% a year ago but I’m now up about 80%. To get that kind of turn around I only sold a few positions, and tipped in maybe an extra $2-3K. I was heavily weighted to PM explorers and developers, a few producers and a few potential tech companies for outsize gains when the companies finally got their commercialisation process going (ZNO and BRN, been a long-term holder of both) and some rare earth developers. So it was highly speculative but it had some ballast and is finally starting to perform (I’ve topped up on a couple of my medical canabis stocks this year when they sold off because I think they have good long-term potential). Given my health situation the only way I’m going to be financially independent is if I invest successfully, so fingers crossed I can actually make this work. It helps that I’m pretty self-disciplined, don’t have debt and always spend less than I earn. Not being a professional money manager means you can have a long time horizon and wait for big pay-offs. I like that idea and I love being in charge of my money, I refuse to hand over my financial future to the finance industry, I have a brain and the necessary personal attributes so I can do this myself. The next thing is to learn how to structure the portfolio a bit better, I’m still dealing with legacy mistakes but I’ll get there.

        • Locus of ControlMEMBER

          Solid advice Popcod. P.S. Julimar. Huh. My parents live very nearby – off Julimar Rd in fact. I better get them combing over their property for these minerals – who knows, they could be on a literal gold mine. I know there used to be a copper mine about 100 metres from their residence (the old shaft is still there – could be mistaken for a well, but no, it’s a copper mine). There was gold mined south-west (?) of town (Toodyay) circa 1930s (Jimperding, from memory), but that petered out fairly quickly.

          • They’ve found copper/nickel and PGEs, which will be crucial for the electrification of the world, it could be a world class deposit. So far they’ve mainly drilled one anomaly, there are more they’ve found, some in the state forest.

        • macaroni jewelerMEMBER

          Here’s a long term spec bet to figure out the time lines for-
          i) USA demographically shifting left, how long will US economic sanctions be credible against the world’s largest oil reserve, on the grounds it’s Marxist gov and therefore corrupt (in comparison too…?) – 4-12 years?
          ii) Whats the future of Oil demand and use on the above timetable?
          iii) Marxist Maduro successor or Free market opposition in power at the coincidence of above.
          iv) invest PDVSA (potential 1000x) or US oil companies (significantly less return) if i-iii align?

    • You should consider taking out $1000 pronto.
      That way the worst that can happen and you have still doubled your money. For 10% of your potential future profit you secure bragging rights and a solid return. You must judge which is more valuable to you.

      • It’s an idea worth considering. I’m not that interested in bragging rights, just achieving my goals and being disciplined.

    • Nice work, Pop. Fingers crossed you can find a few other similar gems.

      Keep us posted on what takes your fancy.

  5. Stewie GriffinMEMBER

    LOL! See long monologues aren’t needed – just a few simple symbols that dumb naz!s are bound to be able to recognise and understand, even with our reptilian brains.

  6. Women always call me ugly till they know how much money i make

    Then they call me ugly and poor

  7. 2nd wave is brewing in Sydney might peak end of this month early November, would they lock down?

  8. and after I sold my BBUS at small loss futures started to fall. Was not in a mood to hold overnight even though I know there won’t be any deal.

    Even though I want Trump to win I find it hard to see how can he pull this one off. If Dems don’t agree to new stimulus markets will crash and Trump will be in trouble. If Trump agrees to Dems terms markets will rally but everyone will credit the Dems and Trump will be seen as weak.
    He really needs miracle to win. He needs 70% of all wh1tes to vote for him and he will need huge turnout. In US only about 35% of voters vote if my memory serves me right. Possible but it’s not going to be easy for him.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Trump would have gotten a deal if he reversed the sequence of his tweets : mention the single bill first, then call off the negotiation. The Democrats would be stuck.

      To illustrate why there will not be a deal : Pelosi was negotiating with the Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on the phone, and the White House spokeswoman went on TV to say the very opposite of what Mnuchin promises while the phonecall is still ongoing.

      https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/08/covid-cluster-427949

      • For sure – try telling that to the rusted on Trump supporters a few days ago when they thought the withdrawal was a stroke of genius. If I agreed/wanted to push the with the R agenda, what I would have done was agree at the 2.2T number but the 2.2T would be in things that were helpful to R side and not give D what they want. That way Trump can say they offered 2.2T and dems didn’t agree – large chunk of the people would not get into the detail.
        Doing nothing would have been better than what he did. No pressure on Pelosi do do anything now unless she gets pretty much everything she wants.
        At some stage people have to accept Trump is not just an average dealmaker – he is a terrible one….

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      Dexamethasone is running the country for the next week. Good luck making any sense of the markets from the Twittersphere.

    • Less Woke More BlokeMEMBER

      Thanks for the continued sharing. Have a k tolay down – can use IG index or CMC. TSM maybe?

    • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

      Im waiting to take a big position in BBUS and hold for 6mths plus. Working on the theory that Trump is somehow manipulating markets up until the election, maybe has Powell balls in a vice, whatever. But markets have been pumped for past 7 or 8 months with a long way to fall once they turn. Hard to bet against them but I think a post election turmoil play is worth a shot.Whatever forces are at play, it feels like its election related, then it all turns.

      • was thinking along those lines while ago but the massive fiscal stimuluses that will be unleashed all over the world will be very good for the markets. Have to be in Copper, Nickel and Gold.

    • Wait.. why do you want Trump to win?
      If Trump really did contract the virus last Friday, day 7-10 is.. now.

    • Anything’s possible Niko. Hang in there.

      Personally speaking I think most votes are ‘sunk’ anyway. How many floating votes are there really?

      Most people are decided IMO. These debates are BS.

      • Campaigning in the US is about getting people to vote at all, not about trying to change their minds about who they’re going to vote for.

  9. @jordanschachtel
    COVID-19 is China’s play to destroy the West, and it’s working better than they could have ever imagined. It’s now on autopilot. They planted the seed, we are doing the rest of the work for them.

    All the videos of people collapsing in the street and people being dragged out of apartments and taking money out of circulation to disinfect it….. The west has been had.

    https://jordanschachtel.substack.com/p/buried-lede-new-who-estimate-downgrades

    With WHO now estimating 10% of the world infected, that’s 700 million infections.
    1 million dead = IFR of 0.14%.
    Even allowing for 2-3 x deaths, that a global IFR around 0.4%. Which is the CDC best estimate of IFR months ago.

    What is WHO spin on this?
    “90 % of world still at risk”

    • My post from March… Still wrong, but along the lines of your idea, that China knew we’d balls this up.

      …My theory is China did it on purpose. For complete plausibility they had to let it run rampant in Wuhan, for global distribution they had to let just enough people out. The trade war meant the jig was over for them and they faced inexorable decline in a global economy contemplating the repatriation of supply chains (and the inherent withholding of the perhaps more valuable IP). With the formerly prosperous status quo imminently disappearing, and faced with the prospect of conversely watching Western economies perk up from more localised manufacturing and edging ahead in the tech/IP race….why not re-level the playing field by releasing a virus which your economic nemesis has spent decades neutering its ability to respond to: a dysfunctional political class, an abominable health care system, a populace with decaying health and no trust in government. China might not come out clear economic winners from a move ultimately intended to bring down the other guy, though 12-months of suppressed Western demand may provide them the best of limited options to recalibrate and internalise their economic growth engines.

      • Yep. A very peculiar virus emerges at a very particular time in history. Exploiting western characteristics – autonomy, individualism, freedom. And feeding on a broader western culture obsessed with not dying, media witch hunts, and politicians paralysed by fear.

        Very well played.

        Meanwhile quietly burned through Chinas much less vulnerable population (much lower % under 80), and China likely close to herd immunity and able to resume business.

      • Doubt it.
        The regime hasn’t had a well thought out plan since Deng copy pasted Lee Kuan Yew’s model.
        Mapping out the next 12 months for the West is beyond their ability.

      • the world can be reduced too a cookie cutter observation …. wheeee … screw the unknown ….

      • Given that China have been secretly hoarding huge piles of gold for some time, all this would tally.

          • What oil is ‘traded in’ is not an issue. The Iranians trade oil with the Chinese for Yuan (or gold). You can trade whatever you want for whatever you want. The petrodollar ‘standard’ may be on borrowed time.

  10. TailorTrashMEMBER

    That must be the most famous fly in history .
    Set the fcuker in plastic and put it next to Abe Lincoln’s
    Top hat at the Smithsonian….kids of the future will stand in awe…..

  11. Looks like the Canberra Liberals are the China bitches.

    Opposition leader Alistair Coe is standing by Robert Johnson despite reports he served as a director of an organisation connected to the Chinese Communist Party’s overseas influence network.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Those spanking new aircraft carriers that just practiced bombing runs on a Scottish island says it all …news papers be damned ( said the chaps who matter in these sort of things ..)

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      “It does worry me that on one hand the RBA is perhaps saying that culture and risk appetite needs to be kept in check, on the other hand the government seems to be giving the green light for more irresponsible lending,” Mr Brody said.””

      Culture matters ….

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Well they’re not going to give it away are they, it’s not like they’re Jainists.

    • Phil Lowe’s PD must read:
      ‘commentator on fiscal policy and commercial bank culture… reaching inflation target can be ignored’

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Laughable – the RBA happy clappies are seriously sick in the head having screwed over depositors for years and now trying some act of holier than thou. Pfft. I wonder who is sh.tting bricks as to when the house of cards falls over?

    • This year our focus is on innovators, investors, and job creators: Acting Immigration Minister Alan Tudge

      As opposed to the last 3 years, when our focus has been on service station and convenience store attendants and food delivery riders.

    • Bait and switch, reduce the number of eligible categories (close some that never get used) as cover to INCREASE the numbers.

      We a seeing a rerun of the Howard bait and switch tactics like the English classes etc.. all fake… designed to fool you.

  12. 1x whiskey, 3x beers and I am done. My wife girlfriend left and I am ready to teach harry another lesson.