Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A relatively solid day for risk markets here in Asia in response to another surge on Wall Street overnight, despite growing concerns of a big second wave of COVID-19 in Europe and the US as the northern hemisphere moves into the cooler months. The USD is remaining firm against most of the majors with gold trying to re-gain its lustre from its previous fall below the $1900USD per ounce level, holding on to short term support just below $1890:

The Hang Seng Index has slipped in its recent advance, falling some 0.7% to 24079 points while Japanese stock markets did the heavy lifting to a new high, the Nikkei 225 closing more than 1% higher to 23677 points. Meanwhile the USDJPY pair is stalled here just below the 106 handle after previously breaking above the recent session highs (black horizontal line) – can it hold on here tonight:

The ASX200 had another solid session, gaining a further 1% to finish at 6102 points, extending its gains above the 6000 point barrier broken yesterday. The Australian dollar is holding on firm here after recouping some of its losses, currently at the mid 71’s going into tonight’s session but not yet out of the woods:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up solidly with the S&P500 four hourly chart looking to extend further above the 3400 point level and the previous highs as expectations of more stimulus fill the punchbowl again:

The economic calendar follows up the FOMC meeting minutes with the latest from the ECB meeting, then US initial jobless claims.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


  1. From Bloomberg:

    Not only has her determined backing for Nord Stream 2 put her in conflict with the U.S. Congress, which imposed sanctions that brought construction on the nearly complete pipeline to a halt last December. It has also raised the unusual prospect of the EU’s biggest state siding with Moscow in a dispute with a fellow member.

    For some reason this all has an eerily familiar ring to it.

    A German hegemon allying itself with a Russian one against Poland.

    Britain returning to its historical policy of independence from Europe.

    Why does this all sound so familiar?

    History is a very long process . . . and I can feel a Fourth Reich coming on.

      • I don’t know about that. The growth of these hegemonies seems perfectly consistent with neofeudalism.

        And doesn’t China – USA – Europe sound rather like Orwell’s tripartite world in Nineteen Eighty-Four?

        With Britain as “Airstrip One”.

        • migtronixMEMBER

          Still looks like a bipartite world to me. china/Russia – US/Europe…

          Mentioned this Fraser earlier today and you might be across it – The Age of Extremes by Eric Hobswam.

          If unemployment stays high for a few years as well as asset prices, I think your first observation is the one.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            China is looking for more space to expand into for its 1400 million people to live in and exploit.
            Eastern Russia on the other hand?

            “ According to the 2010 Census, Far Eastern Federal District had a population of 6,293,129. Most of it is concentrated in the southern parts. Given the vast territory of the Russian Far East, 6.3 million people translates to slightly less than one person per square kilometer, making the Russian Far East one of the most sparsely populated areas in the world. The population of the Russian Far East has been rapidly declining since the dissolution of the Soviet Union (even more so than for Russia in general), dropping by 14% in the last fifteen years. The Russian government had been discussing a range of re-population programs to avoid the forecast drop to 4.5 million people by 2015, hoping to attract in particular the remaining Russian population of the near abroad but eventually agreeing on a program to resettle Ukrainian Illegal immigrants.

            Ethnic Russians and Ukrainians make up the majority of the population.”

            They were never really close during the Cold War nearly coming to blows several times.
            I think in a generation or 2 western Russia will be incorporated into a Europe with less US ties and China if it’s long term planning come into fruition will possess eastern Russia.
            After that the rest of SE Asia and,…Gulp,… Australia.

    • Sorry, I don’t see it. Russia is a shadow of it’s former self, militarily. And Putin is too smart to get involved in imperialist manoeuvres. He only cares about keeping NATO off his lawn and improving the country’s economy.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      I did see it yesterday thanks for the update on my undercover operations. Actually I belong in the sea not the air so tell me I’m dreaming.

      • then start making submarines , with the 10 billions the government spending I bet you will make better ones!

  2. I think Harry is God like, he doesn’t eat meat, he drinks lotsa wine and no drunk, and raises plants from the dead seeds!

    • Raise your hand if you think that bringing in bricklayers from India, world renowned for excellent construction standards, is a good idea. Particularly if you own an apartment in Opal Towers.

      • Speaking of good ideas, I haven’t forgotten about the need for a drink and a mighty uttering of furious oaths. It’s just my social calendar … (translation: my wife is doing a lot of night shifts).

        But I’m free this Sat eve (10th) or otherwise Wed or Thurs next week (14th / 15th) if either of those suit you?

        • I can manage either evening of Wed 14th or Thu 15th. I probably have greater flexibility than you, so let me know which suits you best and I’ll get my social secretary to pencil it into my diary.

      • Thirst-day the 15th sounds like the go to me.

        Usual place, what time, say 8pm?

        Shall we put the word out to the rest of MB Canberra?

        • Usual place at 8pm it is. Prepare your oaths accordingly.

          I think an announcement in Macro Afternoon and morning links for other Canberra shutins would be worthwhile.

    • Saving the announcement to closer to the election. Will be smoke and mirrors though. I predict a cut to a large number of unused categories to create the impression of a reduction while bringing in bigger numbers at the same time.

      Real Scummo stuff. Good enough to fool most people most of the time.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        LOL – never mind, it is the thought that counts.

        BTW I’d never heard of Ben before and had to google him. His cartoons are… colourful… to say the least… they wouldn’t look out of place on the back of Mad Magazine. Now having been enlightened by his existence I can’t say he is my particular cup of tea either, Scott Adams and Dilbert are about as far right as I go.

        Actually no, thinking about it I recently started following @stonetoss on whose much further ‘out there’ than Scott, maybe even ‘out there’ with Ben. But he takes a while to grow on you, and even then some of his takes on things leave even me feeling a little uncomfortable.

        Given you threw up in your mouth, I wouldn’t recommend you seeking him out without smelling salts and a fainting couch at hand, his regular slaying of sacred cows gives the more faint hearted liberals conniptions and fainting fits.

  3. It’s becoming clear that the Victorian lockdown is purely a psychological experiment in control and gas lighting

    Dan says he can’t tell people who are contacts of a known case to isolate

    But people can’t go more than 5km from their house , schools are closed, and everyone may only spend 2 hours a day outdoors

    Even if you are a fan of lockdowns this makes literally no sense

    The policies are completely contradictory and irrational
    To the point that I refuse to believe it’s the result of stupidity – there must be some nefarious ulterior motive

    It’s staggering that no one in the media has even queried the absurdity of this hypocrisy

    Is this a soros or China funded experiment ?
    What’s the goal ? To show how far Australians can be pushed ?

      • Seriously mig – can you understand this?
        Have I gone mad ?

        Andrews and Sutton can’t be that stupid surely

        This has to be a gaslighting experiment

      • Can you please explain it ?

        He doesn’t have the resources to tell contacts of known cases to stay home
        (Which would seem to be a very reasonable and logical policy)

        But he has the resources to brutally enforce all his other harsh policies ?
        (Which seem more illogical and unreasonable like not going more than 5km from home, and not spending too much time outside)

        I’m interested to hear your point of view on this

          • What else have you got ?

            Any other possibilities

            Sutton and the entire health department are really that stupid ?

          • Look at Australian history, any time there has been a crisis people in power sometimes do weird and stupid and contradictory things. It happens, there’s enough historical precedents to show this is normal. Scomo Hawaii Bushfires…..

        • Less Woke More BlokeMEMBER

          It is odd

          You don’t need resources to tell people to do it and create a temp law

          But enforcing it, sure

          Maybe they could ask the ADF?

          Why can’t people just do the right thing and self isolate

          So fricking glad I left The Place to Be 9 years ago

          • They’ve got resources to stop random people on the street and demand to see their papers

            Or conduct raids on Facebook dissidents

            But not to go door knock contacts of known cases ?
            There’s only 10 new ones a day for heaven sake

      • Have you missed the point ?

        I’m neighbouring a tin pot state with a dictator who is either

        A) laughably incompetent
        B) extremely malicious engaged in gaslighting for fun

        Or both

    • To me it seems there is a better way of handling this. Forcing people who test positive for Covid-19 to isolate is 1 way. If they are not doing it at home. Then take em’ to the clink if need be. I’m over being stuck in lockdown because of a bunch of selfish self centred Kent’s. That’s for sure.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Totally agree. Have a dedicated quarantine station with family facilities, (like the one at Port Nepean) and keep people there until they test negative.

        Draconian for a tiny minority, and sensible for the vast majority who are free of Corona.

        [Edit: They could televise the renovation of the Port Nepean Quarantine Facility as a reality show featuring Scott Cam. After all, he owes the nation $300k. (SFM, there’s an idea to run with.) It would be a sh!t tonne cheaper than sustaining JK. 🙂 ]

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            It’s fine for Skip is sunny BrisVegas. Melbourne’s had almost 6 months of rolling lockdowns.

          • Just saying the CT is locked and loaded and just needs the hall of mirrors clown car deployed and totalitarianism was written thingy …

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            The rain man has never understood that Arthur, no clue about Australians and no respect either

            Also being a yank has no concept of irony, praising chyna all day long then calling the kettle black on Australian lock downs

          • What is the old joke about Australia being 20 years behind the US, more like 10 now.

            I don’t get irony and here I thought my response was all about irony.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Compulsory weekly testing for everyone who travels more than 5k from ‘home’. Anyone who tests positive gets shipped to Guantanamo.

          Daily testing for marsupials.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Two weeks in Point Nepean wouldn’t be too bad. There are large grounds and sea views.

          • Mike Herman TroutMEMBER

            TTW, I’m replying to your comment about Reusa!s advice. I agree. I hope everyone noted it. Logical, rational. Pure genius!!

        • “Australia is not the US. What the hll is a CT?”

          I think what skip was trying to say is that you’re an ideologue accusing other free-minded and free-willed people of being …..ideologues.

          Hilarious, innit?!

          • Free Will … chortle … went down that road with miggie years ago, even brought Bill Black into it and referenced Milgram. Then some are befuddled about endemic anti social corruption a la Gresham.

            It would be help full if you identified my ideological state rather than throw it out there, rather meaningless other wise.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        I’ve been through this back in July some time

        I’m starting to wonder if some of you nutters dont simply let my pearls of wisdom come in one ear and go out the other….

        I think anyone refusing to be tested should be named on a publicly accessible database updated in real time and given a choice. Either they have the test (in the interest of their fellow members of society) or they can have three months of ‘managed’ isolation at a facility in say, somewhere south of Murrayville, for which they can be charged the going rate of $220 bucks a night plus firewood costs.

        Those refusing to be tested should also be tear gassed and sprayed with high pressure water for a spell, and then allowed to stand and watch an Ayn Rand interview on a black and white TV, before having their head measured in 3d, their blood taken away for sampling, and an extra swab just for the fun of it at the discretion of the swabber.

        And some tatts

        Actually the more I think about it the more I reckon you are onto something here.

        There is a big expanse of empty mallee scrub south of Murrayville down toward Nhill. Both places could possibly do with an economic fillip. How about, for those people who refuse to be tested, we release them into the scrub (they could have a choice of run south from Murrayville or run North from Yanac) with a stretcher laden with flour, water, Ayn Rand volumes of their choice, hand sanitizer, butter, popcorn, and packets of chicken twisties (those small packs). If they stray too far from their selected course they find themselves bumping into specially selected packs of feral dogs who are trained to facilitate a better understanding of direction and are trained motivational consultants, and they are trailed by specially selected teams of cheap (contract) security personnel looking for a ‘clusterf*ck’ but who have to follow procedure when capturing a testing refusnik, with the procedure saying that before administering the ‘clusterf*ck’ the refusnik needs to have had their legs and feet smeared with honey for three days.

        The whole lot can be observed by drones of course, and the entire ‘event’ can be sponsored by Tom Waterhouse who will be able to offer very competitive odds on each contestant, which punters will be able to lengthen or shorten their positions on according to circumstance. We sell the TV rights, and each week the contestant who gets furthest gets a yellow jacket. This sort of thing could really put Murrayville on the map

        I too have been thinking we need a greater ‘artistic’ component to the event – lets call it the Nhill Liberty classic.

        I think the licenses issues is basically addressed by the need for the applicators of the ‘clusterf*ck’ to have the appropriate certification and I am thinking a Level II in ‘clusterf*ck’, but you are 100% right with the paintball. I dunno if it is quite what you had in mind but rather than anyone shooting colours onto the libertarians, I am thinking more along the lines of exploding indelible dye bombs (of a range of colours but my preference would be for a big blue content) at carefully chosen points along the route – they go to grab the wrong branch for the evening fire and some psychedelic dye goes all over them.

        I also find myself thinking they could be given an old ipad on which to write their monologues (not less than 5000 words) which at the end of the route will be read aloud by them, and judged for artistic merit by C grade literary celebrities – and I am thinking you @Haroldus and @I am Groot for starters. For the Masters refusnik event I would propose they need to sing their monologue, and I would be looking for @Haroldus to take the lead in assessing musical talent on display

        I should also like to note for the benefit of @Haroldus that the idea of having the small packets of twisties is basically about offering the refusniks a choice. They can eat the twisties if they want, but they can maximise their bequest if they grind the twisties into a powder fore the salt and add it to their flour and water in order to make some form of damper.

        Those in power really should be paying more attention. They could be making a killing on the COVID Classic…..

      • I think you’ve missed the point though ?

        They’re not even ASKING contacts of known cases to isolate

        Because they claim they don’t have the resources to check ?


        A) they could at least ask even if they don’t check
        B) they seem to have plenty of resources to hassle the general public . But not actual people at high risk ?

        This is bizarre

        • Did you read the article?
          They’re not going to ask contacts *who have tested negative* after a certain point to isolate for 14 days.
          Not because they don’t have resources but because the resources could be better deployed.

          • No

            They said they don’t ask them to isolate if their INITIAL test is negative

            In distinction to NSW

            Are you illiterate now like revert2mean?

        • anyway I thought the lock-down wasn’t going to work because viruses could cross oceans or something.

          • As I wrote in my first post, I am not even discussing the merits of lockdown

            This makes no sense whatever your view is , because it’s completely inconsistent
            A very minor imposition for very high risk group
            As opposed to the Victorian government’s major impositions on the entire population regardless of risk

            Again if you could try to read first

          • Not only can it cross oceans it collects as clouds of covid over suburbs and evolves into a self aware entity to fly around and enter people’s houses to infect them. No wonder Victoria can’t get the out break under control.

        • Tired of these Covid conspiracy rants….yawn.

          Perhaps if you must comment, you could do so in the articles actually relating to Covid – which no one reads


    Lnp win if the virus stays and Dutton oust the clown people will need strong hands not clowns hands

      • did not know albo into that, never pumped into him getting in or out of such establishments!

        • True Thai Massage Dulwich Hill, according to the internet!

          He was probably just seeing some constituents!!

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            It’s a constituent’s lawfully given right to examine their parliamentary member.

            On all sorts of issues.

          • reusachtigeMEMBER

            Gawd if you’re gonna get busted at a rub and tug make it better than a soft-core lounge. The girls there don’t even strip off. They actually do a proper massage and only ever hint at the potential to massage the special regions towards the very end. In a proper massage lounge a massage is optional and the girls are hot, naked quickly, and get straight to the good bits. If you’re not a stayer then take your massage afterwards. Far more enjoyable.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Reusa’s just posted the most well structured, thoughtful, advice, ever, on this site. Hope you’re all paying attention. Presence of greatness we are in.

          • Thanks! I’ll save it and train on it tomorrow
            Seems too complicated for an old bloke like me but I’ll try and learn 🙂

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Albo’s new 3 word slogan

      Population Participation Productivity

      Or ….more immigrants producing more apartment for more immigrants …..

      • as if those immigrants hate each other and clad those doghouses with flammable materials
        (lots of buildings have been getting fixed on the government grants under the cover of covid)




    Reserve Bank says house prices falling would be ‘worst-case scenario’ for NZ’s economy … Newshub New Zealand

    Daniel Dunkley opines at Stuff New Zealand this morning …

    An economy built on rising house prices: Is property our path to recovery? … Opinion Daniel Dunkley … Stuff New Zealand

  6. happy valleyMEMBER

    So, apparently ScoMo has accelerated the 23k home care packages for aged people announced in the budget to be rolled out over 4 years, to now within 1 year and after that, there’ll apparently still be a wait list as long as your right arm

  7. Maybe we could cover this article tomorrow as a separate entry …

    From the Guardian. 2 gig workers died and their overseas families want compo. Whilst tragic it highlights the visa farce. One widow said that “Xiaojun sent all the money back. He spent very little.” In no article can we get the visa status of either man.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      If I have to venture a guess at the visa, it’ll be tourist visa then applying for political asylum, or they simply overstayed. The deceased Chinese driver has been here in Australia since 2018.

    • Who moves to a foreign country and with no emergency funds living week to week as a food delivery driver?

      That’s just a recipe for disaster.

      What was the plan if he simply fell off his bike and broke a bone?

      And why can’t the rest of the family back in China work?

      A lot of Aussies work into their 70’s these days yet this guy is supporting the parents and in-laws.

    • I can’t make any sense of what they might be doing in Australia, except that they lost their former jobs and were doing food delivery to make ends meet.

    • Yes, it’s sad, but the compo of $400,000 the families are each eligible for will go way further in India and Indonesia than here, also..

  8. Gee that budget reply actually had something looking vaguely like vision for building the country. Pleasantly surprised.


    There were a lot of people relying on Xiaojun Chen. Almost all the money the 43-year-old earned as a delivery rider in Sydney went to supporting his wife, two children, father and parents-in-law at home in China.

    His widow Lihong Wei does not know what to do without him. She wants to be in Australia to manage funeral arrangements but does not have the visa or funds to come.

    This bloke was here with the sole purpose of earning money to send back to the PRC to support 4 adults and 2 children? And what critically important highly skilled job was he imported to do you ask? Food delivery specialist.

    Basically living in extreme poverty, working unsafe hours and now dead.

    What a great outcome all round

    • What would happen to a penniless Aussie that died in China if the family didn’t have the money to repatriate the body?

    • my toranaMEMBER

      None of it rings true, does it? I mean yes a visitor on some unnamed visa died, I’m sorry to hear it, but like someone says above, no one else in the family has income? if the SMH can’t even name his visa conditions can we trust anything else they’re saying.

      • Know IdeaMEMBER

        Funnily enough, I trust the SMH implicitly. The question you should consider though is: to do what?

    • Ya don’t wanna go pissing off the the independent Building Practitioners Board (BPB) ay. Ay.
      Surprised he didn’t have to be locked up for his own safety.


    I was wrong about the democratic party…

    Just saw this. Thought it was gonna be pro Trump. But it’s not. It’s pro common sense and anti woke. Which doesn’t mean pro Trump. No wonder we are in deep trouble.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        I listened to the whole thing while cleaning out the garage.
        Agreed with her on most of what she expressed but was disappointed to hear her clearly anti universal health care position.
        Otherwise on the money.

        • So you liked 45 minutes of boilerplate, generic conservative rhetoric except for the part where she said maybe some people who come to the ER are having a lend ?

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            I think I’m more socially progressive/libertarian than she appears to be and probably more compassionate/concerned for the plight of any “Under class” as well. But she is entitled to her Opinions especially those based on her “Lived experience”.
            And I believe the prejudice and propaganda she describes that has been directed towards her and her community are real and discriminatory.

            Out of interest Smithy, on a scale of 1 to 10 where her “boilerplate, generic conservative rhetoric” may rate,say, a 5.
            Where in contrast would you place Practicing Muslims?,…for “boilerplate, generic conservative rhetoric” when going on about [email protected] or dress codes for women, child marriage, adultery or apostasy?
            Would you agree that said woman above is much more socially progressive than many, if not most, conservative and practicing Muslims in our 2 countries?
            Or is your denigration and criticism of Conservatives reserved only for “White” conservatives?

            Like the kind of thought policing she describes in that clip from an #FakeLeft establishment that hates working class whites.
            I’m guessing all your criticisms, are always reserved, just for “White” people.
            If so your raci$t as shyte
            Just like them 1939 Germans always going on about them Je ws all the time.

          • She is welcome to her “opinions” the same way I am welcome to highlight that they are indistinguishable from the last few decades worth of conservative paranoia, moral panic and vague fearmongering. Are you suggesting she should be free from criticism ?

            I indifferent to who the imaginary friend is.

            But no fundie Muslims are within a bull’s roar of influence in any country I care about, whereas their mostly-the-same-but-different western counterparts, are embedded and protected at the highest levels, making decisions about running those countries based on their religion.

            So your vapid whataboutism is worse than irrelevant, it’s actively obfuscating reality and shielding the guilty.

            Though even that pales into insignificance in the face of your full-retard Godwin’s Law example.

    • Great link, thanks for posting. As you say, common sense, but the young are indoctrinated to see racism and discrimination in everything.

      Btw – my daughter at the same age (22), also got a position with Teach For Australia (sister org) with very similar story. Now teaches at a Geelong high school, and a similar story, sadly. No wonder standards of everything are declining.

      • Previous company I worked for had Diversity Training. Where these people would come in (often women) and tell us how not to be racist and how to spot our own priveledge etc.. it used to really anger me, for similar reasons to those she described as the focus was all on differences etc..

        I would often question a lot of the narrative, but I had to do it in a very subtle fashion to not trigger the fascist alarms in their heads.

        I’m just glad more and more people are talking about about this toxic way of thinking and especially for young kids the form of indoctrination being performed on them.

        If we teach them to be victims that’s exactly what they will be.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          Never accept this shyte for your Kids Gav.
          Its the thin edge of a wedge that may one day see them being exterminated like German and Polish Je ws.
          The “White Privilege” narrative is EXACTLY the same kind of blame “THEM ALL” mentality.

          • This is just straight up paranoid persecution complex.

            Nobody is coming for your kids because they’re white, except maybe Stewie’s mates if they’re not white enough.

    • It’s 45 minutes of boilerplate, generic, conservative rhetoric that would have sounded nearly indistinguishable twenty – probably even thirty – years ago, save a handful of refreshed contemporary references like “woke”, Bush II and Trump.

      (Albeit delivered smoothly by a rather attractive lass rather than some whiny toff with a punchable face.)

      It’s so generic you could take a transcript and change probably less than half of it to make it a Republican-to-Democrat story.

      • Then some wonder why the DNC Democrats are openly trying to re image and buff old republicans like Bush Jr et al, and then some still don’t grok what the Washington Consensus or Third way was all about Eg. DNC Dems are moderate republicans, which as noted, via ratchet effect, chase the far right wing breather republicans too the right – see Overton window.

        Best bit is none seem to notice Trumps seamless transition from a liberal dem to a far right breather without so much as a public “I saw the light or the spirit touched me” moment.

        Lmmao at ****common**** sense you”I”tube videos …. dripping in Bernays sauce … some it would seem might benefit from a bit of Descartes …

    • PR stunt for the new Barilaro Raceway.
      Creating a real Bruz apparently.

      He is from Monaro after all.

      Can’t catch a brake on his break.

      Best I go to bed. Goodnight!

      • A strange comment. It was the organisers that proposed that there be a virtual townhall meeting and it was Trump that said he would not participate. My understanding is that Biden agreed to the debate, Trump didn’t. Do you mean that Biden wouldn’t play ball because he wouldn’t acquiesce to Trump’s dummy spit?