Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

It’s not been the red day for stock markets here in Asia that traders expected given the shooting off the mouth tweets overnight from Trump that sent Wall Street a flutter. Some walking back has seen some of the losses abated, with a positive response to the new Budget locally sending the ASX200 much higher. The USD has weakened slightly against the undollars, with hard hit gold trying to re-gain its lustre from last night’s big fall below the $1900USD per ounce level:

The Hang Seng Index continued its own advance, up 0.8% to 24181 points while Japanese stock markets were relatively flat with the Nikkei 225 closing a handful of points lower at 23429 points. Meanwhile the USDJPY pair is ready to go risk on again, getting back to its previous session highs (black horizontal line) after being pushed down to the mid 105 level overnight:

The ASX200 had a very solid session, doing the best in the region on the very GDP positive Budget, gaining some 1.3% to finish at 6036 points. The Australian dollar clawed back half of its losses from overnight, currently at the low 71’s as The City opens:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up 0.4% or so with the S&P500 four hourly chart looking to get back above the 3400 point level as expectations of some sort of punchbowl fill-up coming down the pike:

The economic calendar will include the release of the previous Fed minutes from the FMOC meeting which could be USD sensitive.

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Comments

  1. Trump will come back to the table. Just a negotiation ploy.

    Can’t wait for the debate next week. Lazarus vs Biden.

        • Who says he’ll be COVID free? Standard quarantine is 14 days. Full stop. He’s infectious now, and in close up he does not look well despite his macho act. If Trump does not defer the debate to comply with that quarantine, then given the volume of White House staffers that are going down with COVID, Biden would be well within his rights to say that he will debate when Trump has served his quarantine and not before. He can say that unlike Trump he is not prepared to endanger the people working for him or for the broadcast company or even the other Town Hall attendees. Caring for people you lead is something that any good leader does.

      • She stood there laughing
        I felt the knife in my hand and she laughed no more

        My, my, my Delilah
        Why, why, why, Delilah?
        So before they come to break down the door
        Forgive me, Delilah, I just couldn’t take any more

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      If I was Biden, I’d be staying away until Trump has 3 consecutive negative Covid tests. Trump seems to be superspreader and would love to pass on the joy to Biden.

    • So let me get this straight: He is blowing up negotiations where the blame can be solely put on him for blowing it up. Punishing main street and potentially causing a market crash that can be laid squarely at his feet?

      Man that is some 5D chess going on right there – that or dexamethasone side effects.

    • As you speak, Trump does just that — checks in the mail!

      It’s raining money!

      Colour me so surprised ….

        • Missed the part where Dems agreed. Wait I thought his exec order last month was supposed to solve all the problems. Or was that not a master stroke?

  2. migtronixMEMBER

    Frightening imagine we allowed people out for 2.5 hours a day!

    “16 cases of coronavirus are in hospital, including two in intensive care”

  3. – It may seem / sound weird but I actually like the idea of “shooting down more stimulus”. It only would have increased the US budget deficit (more).
    – Perhaps Trump c.s. didn’t like that he didn’t get any “stimulus” ??

    • Pay attention, Willy — Trump is about to rain checks down on every household again. Pre-election gift.

      • Mother Russia in my cup
        And my glasses foggin’ up
        Oh yeah hey dog hey what’s up
        Oh yeah hey dog hey what’s up
        When the sweaty balls are bangin’
        I don’t f$ck with family planning
        Make it rain Trump, make it rain
        Make it rain Trump, make it rain

        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_3T8KznhThQ

      • – Forget it mate. Trump & sending a check to every Household ? Yeah, sure. And I was born yesterday, right ?

          • – No, he won’t send a check to every Household. But he already promised his corporate friends tonnes and tonnes of new “government money”. He didn’t use his own money because he is such a cheap-cheat.
            – Never saw the news about his tax returns ? He owes miilions (if not billions) and A LOT OF his companies are not profitable.

        • Willy – if his companies are not profitable they are unlikely to owe much tax, if any at all.

          As for my comment about ‘other people’s money’ — that applies to all pollies. As the late, great HL Mencken said: An election is an advance auction of stolen goods (or words to that effect)

  4. I’m loving the casual racism on display lately – someone on the Drum said of the lack of immigration that “Australia is going to get older and whiter” as if it is an awful thing to be avoided, because well, white people = bad. Another I saw today – Doordash are not charging commission on deliveries from “black-owned” businesses in the US. How is that not overtly racist? Where is the antifa club on this? https://blog.doordash.com/introducing-new-initiatives-to-support-black-owned-businesses-on-doordash-and-caviar-6b2b7cb4586c

    • I wonder what % black you need to be to get that commission free deal. Or is it based on looks?

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        I find the Drum spectacularly twee a lot of the time, but…….

        We need a national broadcaster. Think of shows like Beyond 2000, The Inventors, Aunty Jack, Norman Gunston, 4 Corners, Landline etc we would never see without the ABC. The only real journalism in the country is done by the ABC and about the only outfit left training journalists is also the ABC. Does every state in the country need to get its news out of Sydney? (no disrespect, I am sure it is fine for Sydney)

        Do you really want to leave the national discussion to 7, 9 and 10?

        That isnt to say some parts of it need to be moved or refashioned out of being the woke central sheltered workshop they seem to be – and the Drum would be up there, along with Q&A.

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            another reason to keep the whole box and dice. For sure, straighten it up. But like the Beeb in the UK, Australia would be far poorer and far more poorly informed without the ABC

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          Good point Gunna. The ABC has an enormous amount of national infrastructure and know how, built up over the last 90 years.

          If it goes, it would be almost impossible to replace. It’s kind of handy to own the infrastructure for a national voice.

          Getting rid of the ABC would be up there with these other examples of vandalism: the Commonwealth Bank, Radio Australia in the Indo-Pacific (CH says thanks Tones), the CSIRO, CSL, Australian Gas Reserves, Murray Darling Water Reserves, Commonwealth Aircraft Factories, National Shipping Line, Car Industry, Train Industry, Electrical Turbine Industry, etc, etc.

        • Here’s some noice ‘journalism’ by the ABC, a little breakdown of budget winners and losers (or is it loosers?)
          https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-06/coronavirus-federal-budget-2020-winners-and-losers/12684802?nw=0&politburucleared=true

          With the international borders still closed, our migration numbers are expected to go backwards, which is a bad thing for the economy.

          The Government is forecasting our net overseas migration will fall from around 154,000 in 2019-20 to -72,000 by the end of 2020-21

          Just think of all those taxpayer remunerated Doctors, Nurses, Pharmacists and Physios standing around twiddling their thumbs when they could be gainfully employed looking after the chronic illnesses of the fresh off the plane, never paid a cent of income tax in Australia and never will, death staring grannies from you know where …..

          Oh the economic horror of it all!!

          • This wasn’t good on immigration, however it was likely a copy and paste from something Frydenburg said.
            ABC are far from perfect, however I put them up there as the least worst and sometimes quite useful.
            In a choice between Murdoch, Stokes and ABC then ABC by a mile for mine.

        • With respect, you’re assuming that if the ABC were no longer with us, nothing would spring up in its place – vacuums can be inviting. There are no guarantees, of course, but I imagine the ABC is fairly popular in this country and its disappearance may represent a commercial opportunity for a broadcaster to screen high quality television, particularly given they’d have almost no competition.

          State-funded projects have a tendency to drown out any nascent competition because the commercial risks are often far too high.

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            Of the possibility I would say ‘anything is possible’

            Of the probability I could easily imagine another commercial TV network serving up real estate prices in the news, 3 minutes of world news (90 seconds an animal story) each night, leading in with a batch of inane game shows and ploughing through the evening with yet more American cable TV second rate gruel, interspersed with yet another kitchen show, some reality TV hoppo bumpo stories, and sports coverage revolving around some footballing boofheads of years gone by – all fleshed out with maybe a right wing nutter fulminating once a week on the evils of socialism and unions.

          • My free markets vs your Marxism (or is it Stalinism)? As someone who gets reamed on a regular basis by your Govt you have a touching faith in this institution.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            😂 A totalitarian state is ring fencing ‘your’ country, and you want to carry on about ‘Free Markets’.

            You are the most useful of useful idiot, and not much of a patriot either. Of course, who’s to say you are Australian.

            Stalinism? Marxism? Projection perhaps?

          • Stalinism? Marxism? Projection perhaps?

            You are making the mistake of trying to have a rational conversation based on the actual meanings of those words, when they are virtue signalling for literary horror-film-esque jump scares.

            This is why it is almost impossible to have rational discourse with conservatives.

          • Goodness me, Arthur, you’re not very bright. Good thing for you these exchanges are happening anonymously

        • While I sympathise with your cynical stance, when it comes to BS television, I’d argue that the competition is already immense and therefore precious little space for another in that realm.

        • Just heard the ABC news reader sign off with “..and also (available) through Foxtel”. WTF?

        • You still pushing the safe way surf you will only get westies in every Eastern state maybe under 20s on the coast wrong demographic

        • Know IdeaMEMBER

          If you take the view, as a land-based protein source in the form of a primate mammal, that it is worth, for a temporal sensory experience, to progress along a water/air transition for which you are poorly adapted, it is hard to overly feel empathy when an aquatic takes advantage of that.

          • You talking tone moron what’s your point when the ice. Melts birds land Melbourne area disaster seeen 20 years ago

        • Jumping jack flash

          Ballina and sharks…
          My mother used to tell me stories about people being taken by sharks at Ballina so Its been happening for at least 70 years.
          I wouldn’t go swimming at Ballina. That whole area is pretty dicey, but Ballina always was especially bad.

      • My way of dealing with the Drum is to not watch it. Just like when Amanda Vanstone pops onto RN. Neither float my boat so I just head to a different harbour.

        • FWIW, ABC gets 80% of the airtime on our telly. I acknowledge the issues regarding balanced coverage though I think Mad as Hell makes it all ok ☺️

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Ooooh… sheilas wearing Brylcreem? Haven’t seen that since the 80s!

      I bet you miss Robert Palmer. I know I do.

      • RIP Rob.

        Whooop chink! Simply irresistible! That film clip introduced me to pin appreciation 👯‍♀️ 😙 at the tender age of 7.

    • The Dems would like everyone to have free money. Why earn it when you can print it?

      “Make it rain!”

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The 1.6 Trillion bill by Trump and the 2.4 Trillion by the Democrats does not have 1.6 Trillion in overlapping spending.

    • I know a 55 year old American maths teacher from California who retired and moved to Eastern Europe, where he lives on a $3000/month (USD) pension despite having huge assets. This is why states like California are busted, its the huge pensions given to public servants which are now obviously higher in value than the money they ever paid in.

    • Jumping jack flash

      How much debt do their people own? It wouldn’t surprise me if the US also subscribed to the great government debt lie, and then sold their people to the banks. They always had a lot of government debt though, but they did do some pretty cool stuff back in the day.

  5. The Traveling Wilbur

    Just heard Channel 7 news describe a wine wholesaler and bottler they were spruiking as ‘news’ as “socially responsible” – I mention this as it has finally prompted me to enquire if my dealer’s gear is ethically sourced.

    • Tell him you’re not buying any more of his gear until you’ve seen his ESG declaration.

      (Make sure to take a picture of his face as he’s digesting all that).

        • Still haven’t been, cheers for reminder though, will go this weekend.
          I score my NK meth at the Queensport Hotel from my friendly ABF contact…..

          (I’m hoping some govt functionary investigates this post, takes it seriously and decides to dive deeper and then gets the joy of discovering the tittie girls at the Queensport)

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Sigh… the only good Bugamoooo left is a Cab Sav Merlot. Bought 3 bottles on the weekend. And there wasn’t much left of that on the shelf after I was done.

  6. and another lucky day thanks to Trump. This time his tweet. Sold my BBUS in the morning again before futures recovered.

    Also, I further reduced my IPT stake to almost nothing. Just don’t like the announcement they made yesterday. I might be wrong on this one as shares aren’t really falling.

      • all good. Impact Resources.
        They may get lucky and hit big one as their ground is really good but I just don’t like when people try to present sh1te assays as great news.
        They also hold really good ground south of ALK’s Boda discovery and plan to drill it soon.

        • It’s been interesting to watch the whole rare earth’s space take off recently(I don’t have ree). I’m very happy with the way vml has been going, but it’s looking like it’s starting to attract some serious, steady buying. It’s been a wait (I bought into rare earth miners in 17) but it’s looking like I might get a decent payday on them eventually (I don’t trade)

          • sold 400k REE @13c.. ouch. Still made lot of money but god.. if I sold them today. Have some more though.

  7. I read a comment on a website that was an interesting take on covid.
    “If you have to test for an infectious disease to know if you have it or not is it really that bad?”

  8. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-english-no-visa-australia-to-block-visa-for-partners-if-they-don-t-speak-english-20201007-p562o3.html

    Oh dear ..

    Australians who fall in love with non-English speaking foreigners will be barred from bringing their partners into the country to be married if they do not speak fluent English.

    Chelsea Sonkar, 30, from Canberra, has applied for a partner visa for her husband Sanjay Sonkar, 30, from Varanasi, India.

    She has been raising their one-year-old son alone for the past year while working and studying because Sanjay was caught in India when the borders closed because of the coronavirus pandemic.

    Mrs Sonkar said the government was sending a clear but ugly message about the type of husband or wife that they deemed suitable for Australians.

    “My instinctive reaction was that the government has a preference for the type of spouse that they want to include in the Australian community,” she said.

    “It sends a very strong message that spouses coming from poorer backgrounds are not welcome.”

    Mrs Sonkar is confident Mr Sonkar would pass an oral language test because he works as a tourist guide and converses in several languages conversationally. But she is worried that if the test is written he will be at a disadvantage because he dropped out of school when he was 16 to support his family after his father became ill.

    Well, I’m just going to leave this piece of UXO where it lies, lest I stray too close and get accused of the R word by the resident guardian of woke who is on my case here every other post,

  9. German industrial output shrank 0.2% against Reuters poll of rise of 1.5%. That’s a big miss.

    • Ukraine fnMEMBER

      Result of supply chains being stymied due to covid ? Can’t make as much due to missing or unavailable components.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      The European press always overestimate that stat – any time they try projecting forward German production, all they can think of is that there will be orders.

  10. I Think Martin light bulb just come on its not his fault his. Education close to colinal but blew his wad on the South now heard buying the north

  11. The Traveling Wilbur

    “Peta Credlin has done a superb job dissecting the Andrews Government’s hotel quarantine failures and lies in the above Sky News report.”

    One of the best sentence endings LvO has ever written. Bravo.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Well Ermo the French have their Bastille day ….
        …Maybe straya could have their Bomdi day .after the revolution to celebrate the storming .

    • Gees the blow residue on the inside of the Cabanas by the end of the first week of business will something to behold. A sniffer dog’s dream.

  12. Havent visited this blog since i lost my job months ago, how is everyone and whats the economy like?
    hopeful to be back at work near the end of the year and catching up on the delightful topic that is our economy.

      • Was on contract so nah, but the annual leave was significant since i rarely took time off.
        Honestly not bummed about it since i needed a break from trying to juggle uni and work and i was under-performing compared to my peers so fairs fair.

    • Welcome back, I left my job back in March and only found a job back in July. But I didn’t really look for the first 2 months since I had planned to have 2 months off anyway. But it was a tough time for sure.

      • Thanks and good to hear you were able to find another job, my employment break has been fairly cruisy as i still live with my family though both scenarios have there ups and downs and sometimes find myself stressed over money or work.

        • Being at home is a big advantage. My missus was working but I hated not having my own income. First time I’ve ever really been out of a job since I was a student in the early 2000s.