Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar pressured as virus returns with a vengeance

It’s been a solid start for risk assets here in Asia with Wall Street futures goosed by a Trump drive-by, thus lifting all other boats with big turnaround on stock markets. Meanwhile, the USD is gaining ground against most of the undollars, with gold retreating back below the $1900USD per ounce level:

The Hang Seng returned to be up more than 1.5%, now above 24800 points while Japanese stock markets reopened higher with the Nikkei 225 taking back all of Friday’s losses to close 1% higher at 23307 points as the USDJPY pair gapped higher this morning, getting back to the mid 105 level that it held all of last week:

The ASX200 was the biggest mover, helped along by the reversal in risk plus the Federal Budget news with a big surge, closing 2.5% higher at 5941 points. The Australian dollar has gapped higher despite the falls in commodity prices and almost returned back to last week’s high near the 71.80 level with four hourly momentum well positive:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up significantly, ready to take back Friday’s losses with the S&P500 four hourly chart looking to get back to last weeks intra-session high near the 3370 point level:

The economic calendar starts the week relatively slowly with the US ISM non-manufacturing print for September, plus the usual post-NFP Treasury auctions, but all eyes will be on the WhiteHouseVirus fallout.

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Comments

          • Your joking right …. The UK and the US were the top neoliberal economic cornerstones used to export it internationally.

            Making stuff has nothing to do with it and NAFTA plus the China gold rush should make it clear.

            Lmmao the GFC started where again – ????? – wow.

            BTW NZ just became a place to set up dodgy licenses for funneling corrupt money, see Richard Smith post over at NC.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            I go to the states quite a bit, and relative to Australia and NZ there is still a considerable amount of high value manufacturing. You know, rocket engines, airliners, silicon chip lithographs, chemicals, drugs etc, etc.

            I have considerable faith that the US will remake itself over the coming decade, while at the same time fearing it might be quite a violent process.

            While it exported neoliberalism, some parts of the US economy survived better than in other parts of the Anglo world.

            The NZ story doesn’t surprise me. The clean and green image has always been a bit of a front.

          • I don’t do faith and if you had not noticed the corporatist have taken over both party’s and stocked the judiciary, why do you think the rush is on for SCOTUS appointee.

          • Yeah America are still massive manufacturers and innovators – they have an highly educated economy with very advanced skills.

            They have a huge advantage over the rest of the planet – as in totally untouchable – that is except for China who I feel has caught them.

            People tend to think in dichotomies but China and America will coexist rather than domination.

          • Casus Belli

            Must be why all their OECD ratings are going down the toilet and low international voting rankings … but on the up side you have 460+ billionaires … so your mileage might vary ….

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Have a look to see those who have done well and those who haven’t inside those economics. Then you’ll see that Thatcherism has been a roaring success.

  1. alwaysanonMEMBER

    Given NSW is 1/2 the way to his “month with zero cases” (knock on wood) it’ll be interesting if Wolf’s prediction comes true for Sydney. Part of me really regrets not spending six months on a beach somewhere when we could during this WFH period but I am fairly sure my wife and I will need to go back to the office at least a few days a week very soon… “This great 2020 exodus raises the question: Will the techies ever return? Only if the jobs do. Few millennials and Gen Zers will pay $5,000 for Bay views and lingering fog. This means that companies — and their employees — must conclude that working-at-home is akin to having a substitute teacher in high school: It’s fun for a while, but the talented soon weary of learning nothing. It seems to me that those who wish to get ahead — you can’t get promoted from your bedroom — make sales or meet like-minded employees for friendship or just to get the hell out of their sweatpants will demand a real office the day after we have a month of zero infections.” https://wolfstreet.com/2020/10/02/the-flight-of-the-techies/

    • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

      WFH is not good for city house prices, society, it is not good for tax revenue, it is not good for many government donors (while the rest are yet to feel the negative effects but will…banks for example). It’s not good for much at all.

      IMO, there will be a concerted effort by business and government to send people back to work.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        If the government and the commercial property industry
        have their way people will be back in offices for sure…..management might have to offer bunnings breaks
        as they seem quite the thing with WFH

    • Agreed. I’m not sure we go back to the ‘way it was’ but many will go back, or perish. A mate of mine who works in Govt says that there are a hell of a lot of staff that are using this opportunity to refuse to ever go back. Great time to do some weeding, I reckon. For private sector firms, it’s a given.

      WFH is no utopia – it feels great for a while and then you just feel detached from world outside. Social interaction is important on so many levels — particularly for the youngsters who have only known social media and don’t know how to form relationships. And how do you learn from home? Ridiculous.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        By contrast, if you employ people who want to work from home, and are engaged in their local community it can work out really well for both the employee and employer.
        However, you have to bring the teams together for a couple of days at least every 2 to 3 months.

        • I think we need to agree that there are 10,000+ different jobs out there and all of them have different requirements. I think people sometimes have a tendency to judge all jobs by the job they personally do. There are a heap of jobs that require being at the workplace – come hell or highwater.

          Humans are a social bunch — they thrive and bloom when socially interacting. As a race we’re destined to die out sooner or later but it’ll be sooner if we are all condemned to WFH, IMHO.

  2. The Traveling Wilbur

    News just in via SBS: the NFL (yes, F) have decided, thanks to star players starting to test positive for COVID-19 (whocoodanode), that the league will need to resort “to bubbling”.

    Is this a cultural thing?

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      Not particularly. They were particular about this point in the pre-season which lead to cancelling to all pre-season games. They’ve also had a number of players, particularly Tennessee and Cam Newton in New England test positive. Not surprisingly then, given they’re wearing all of the risk to keep the multibillion-dollar machine running, they want mitigation.
      Sounds no different to any other workplace.

        • RobotSenseiMEMBER

          3-1 and daring to dream!
          AFC predictions – Chiefs (obvs), Ravens, Bills (Josh Allen looks gooooood), ?Colts
          Whichever of Steelers/Ravens who don’t win AFCN are a wildcard. Oakland maybe. Cleveland maybe. Tennessee maybe. New England maybe. Everyone else in the AFC look broken – Broncos, Chargers, Jaguars, Texans (0-4 after trading Hopkins, sheesh), Bengals, Dolphins, Jets (lol) aren’t any shot. So my bold prediction is Tennessee/Oakland/Cleveland/New England are competing for two wildcard spots.

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            They have a system. Good win over NO last week. Had moments v Bills today. Gruden isn’t as nuts as we initially thought. They won’t go far, but they should run over the Broncos and Chargers in the AFCW; I’d expect they’ll be north of 500 and in with a shot.

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            Haha! Holy smokes. Old habits die hard. “Las Vegas Raiders” nah still feels weird saying it.

  3. bolstroodMEMBER

    Covid has got it’s second wind in the Northern Hemisphere.
    USA 50, 000+ new cases yesterday
    Uk 22961
    Ireland 364
    France12,565
    Brazil 8456
    also taking off in ,Spain, Italy

  4. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Does anyone still remember ‘Mad Cow Disease’? The disease is caused by feeding animal blood and bones to cows, and it caused quiet a scare in 1996 when the British government announced that eating beef from cattle with ‘Mad Cow Disease’ can cause the same in human. Lots of cattle ends up being culled, beefs from certain country is banned for decades, and a few hundred people end up being infected by it.

    The chance of someone dying from Mad Cow Disease is much lower than COVID-19. If it happen today, the cattle industry will use social media to convince people ‘Mad Cow Disease’ doesn’t exists : rather, it is just a plot by vegans to scare people into not eating meat. Judging from the response of people in regard to COVID-19, a lot of people will believe it defend the practice of feeding animal blood and bone to cow as a ‘fundamental human right’.

    The difference between now and then is the internet.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Me too. Lived in UK for 2.5 years. Banned from giving blood ever after……

        I actually come from a family which has good meat awareness. The first time I ever went into a Sainsbury (UK equivalent of Coles or Woolworths) I walked down the meat aisle and grab a couple of trays of mince without really looking at them too much. Then somewhere in the next area I did look at them and thought to myself I had grabbed the ‘pet’ mince by mistake (remember when butchers used to do pet mince?), and went back. It was only when I got there I realised that the whole show seemed to be full of meat which was grey/green and thought to myself ‘what are these guys eating?’ When I got home I called my old man (A man running a business involving Australian meat – who had earlier told me that he could see the Americans were being sold kangaroo meat as steak at one point) and told him my first thoughts about Pommy meat. He just replied ‘Yeah, you will need to be careful over there with meat. Real careful. Not many places in this world will have meat as good as the stuff you get at home.’ It is only in the last 25 or so years the Europeans have got into decent quality meat – the way the Americas, NZ or Australia would know it. I recall seeing things in Germany and France which terrified me, and know for a fact a lot of late Soviet era consumers dined on kangaroo without it being labelled as such.

    • Did any humans ever contract it or die from it? My memory of it all is a bit fuzzy.

      Not sure about the human rights angle Ronin. In a market economy, people who want to sell lots of produce have a tendency to make it better and more attractive to consumers rather than rant about rights.

      Bit like here: “Hormone free meat!”

      Etc etc …

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        213 people so far, to be exact. It takes quite a while before symptoms present, and an average of 13 months from diagnosis to take its course. A painful and protracted death.

        • I recall at the height of the saga one of the Tory front-benchers gave his very young daughter a beef-burger to eat as a media stunt. Hopefully she didn’t turn out to be one of the 213 😉

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            For some unknown reason, it mostly killed people under 30.

            Feeding cows their own kind; there’s got to be something about that in the Old Testament, let alone the New.

    • The vids of mad cows would’ve been enough to put any sane person off even if there were any campaign to reduce impact. I can’t give blood because of being over there at that time & I know someone who’s suspected of dying from it Recently! … Still testing to confirm but pretty sure – all these years later…..

  5. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Trump totally owning this China virus and showing all the gutless wonders how success is done! Can’t wait until he wins the election so that all youse commie scum suck it up your rectiles!

  6. Gawd, this makes me mad. Journalism in this country is stuffed. Absolutely stuffed. Look at the headline of this pathetic SMH piece that hit their site today
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/frydenberg-delivers-historic-low-poverty-but-eight-sydney-districts-face-hardest-times-20201002-p561he.html
    Frydenburg delivers historic lows in poverty, as if he did it on purpose because the LNP are just a great party of the people. The bastard did it under sufferance and didn’t want to, poverty is only lower because of the hike in newstart. They had to be dragged kicking and screaming to do it. They are now so keen to wipe it away. These LNP guys are wanting to put people back in poverty quick smart by wiping out the increase rates and by giving tax cuts to people who are already well above the poverty line. These people are shameless.

      • The thing that gets me with the unions (and I pity their long suffering members, most of them) is that it attracts a level of criminality unusual in any organisation (and thuggery, now I come to think of it). The mafia (in both the US and Italy) have always been keen to control the unions – and there should be little surprise.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        They called her “the lion of the union movement”.

        Funnily enough all the info on Jackson’s dodgy dealing was dumped onto a famous journo’s desk but she ignored it because it wasn’t the political scalp she wanted. Jackson only got caught out when she got careless thinking she was protected. Otherwise she would have got away with it.

  7. happy valleyMEMBER

    Q+A tonight panel tonight includes “Gomer Pyle” Chalmers (Labor), “butter wouldn’t melt in my mouth” Jane Hume and Jane Halton (ScoVID-19 Commission) – I’ll switch off and keep reading The Carbon Club book, recounting the debacle over the last 25 years that is climate policy in this country.

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