Today Bank of America released its latest Fund Mangers Report, which is perhaps best known for capturing the sheer schizophrenia gripping Wall Street professionals (case in point, last month a record majority of respondents said “Long US Tech” was the most crowded trade on Wall Street, even as most professionals admitted to flooding into Long US Tech trades).
So what is the take home message from the latest survey of 224 pangelists managing some $624 billion in AUM? First and foremost, last month’s consensus that the current recovery is U-shaped (a view held by 32% of respondents in September) giving way to a majority view that the recovery will be a bumpy, double-dip, or W-shaped, held by 30% of respondents while the U-shaped crowd drops to 29%. Meanwhile the V-shaped optimists are far back in 3rd place with just 19% of the responses.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
