The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released housing finance data for August, which revealed a massive lift, led by first home buyers.
The below chart plots the time series:
Total new mortgage commitments (excluding refinancings) surged by 12.6% in August, with owner-occupied mortgages surging 13.6% and investor mortgages rising 9.3%.
Year-on-year, total new mortgage commitments (excluding refinancings) rose by 19.3%, with owner-occupier mortgages surging by 29.2% but investor mortgages falling 4.6%:
First home buyer (FHB) mortgages rocketed by 18.4% in August, with their share of total mortgages at 23.6% – the highest level since the GFC:
There’s no denying that this data is bullish for property prices and helps to explain the resurgence across Australia outside of Victoria.
It will be interesting to see whether it lasts into 2021 given the forecast collapse in immigration:
Alongside the massive withdrawal of emergency income support:
It’s going to be one almighty tug-of-war between easier and cheaper credit on the one side and collapsing immigration, oversupply, and stimulus withdrawal on the other.