The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released housing finance data for August, which revealed a massive lift, led by first home buyers.
The below chart plots the time series:
Total new mortgage commitments (excluding refinancings) surged by 12.6% in August, with owner-occupied mortgages surging 13.6% and investor mortgages rising 9.3%.
Year-on-year, total new mortgage commitments (excluding refinancings) rose by 19.3%, with owner-occupier mortgages surging by 29.2% but investor mortgages falling 4.6%:
First home buyer (FHB) mortgages rocketed by 18.4% in August, with their share of total mortgages at 23.6% – the highest level since the GFC:
There’s no denying that this data is bullish for property prices and helps to explain the resurgence across Australia outside of Victoria.
It will be interesting to see whether it lasts into 2021 given the forecast collapse in immigration:
Alongside the massive withdrawal of emergency income support:
It’s going to be one almighty tug-of-war between easier and cheaper credit on the one side and collapsing immigration, oversupply, and stimulus withdrawal on the other.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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Yesterday's 0.5% hike in the official cash rate
And a tug of war between our morally bankrupt banks to see who can lend the most irresponsibly under Josh Rainbowberg’s let-it-rip totally irresponsible lending policy? Any bets on which of our banks will take gold, gold, gold?
I suspect dog boxes will get crushed. Housing with backyard is more desirable now than ever.
Yep. Those garbage quality new units are in trouble.
An old 2 bedroom unit in a small block near me just sold for 980k. Didn’t even get listed. Snapped up by some investor from Neutral Bay.
Interest rate cuts are magic. Set a block record during a pandemic without even advertising the thing.
Yep. Houses on 600 sqm on a tear. Apartments in the gutter, in Melbourne.