El Trumpo builds polling momentum

The latest polling averages are better El Trumpo:

Battleground states have closed the gap a little:

Betting is unimpressed:

538 sees an even larger landslide:

Probably rightly. There is always a late swing to the incumbent but the gap remains to large and the virus resurgence cannot help El Trumpo:

He only has until next Wednesday our time. Not enough.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)

Comments

  1. migtronixMEMBER

    Why won’t he about the affair between Junior and Melania? I’ve heard the tapes, it’s disgusting!
    They’re making bat noises then junior says “mummy can I have bat soup?” and she urinates on him.

  2. I’m curious what you were saying prior to the 2016 election. Were you saying Hillary was a shoo-in?

    Anyway, regardless, I tend to think the Donald just won’t make it over the line this time, though I am not totally confident by any stretch. Without the pandemic, Trump would have won easily. But he has bungled it so badly that many swing voters are ready to jump back to the Dems. I think it will be close, but Biden will make it.

    • Prior to the last election the republicans were pro trump, this time around there are republicans actively opposing him..

      There are lots of differences, you may have noticed a few strange tings have happened over the last 2 years or so…

      personally I would not want to bet on any particular outcome… its all too weird and unstable…

        • A couple of things to remember in terms of US voting…

          1) People dont vote for the president, they vote in the illusion of democratic elections, its the delegates who vote and they have no requirement in most states to follow the electorate wishes.
          2) There isn’t even a coordinated approach to voting rules in most states so corruption and influence are easy.
          3) Most US Citizens dont bother to vote.

          We have a different set of problems in this country that would actually be mostly solved by electronic voting and we have a coordinated set of rules for each election context.

    • Jim's Central Banking

      It seems like Republicans think he’s going to lose because they’ve started talking about debt again, and that only usually happens when they’re not in government.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The polls were doing well for Clinton until the FBI launched investigation on her, 2 weeks before the election.

      Will the FBI do the same for Hunter Biden this time?

      • it’s less than a week left and half the country already voted. Also many new voters started voting or the fraud is at unprecedented levels – as Texas, for example, reported unusual high number of votes being casted already. It may be too late for FBI to influence the outcome.
        This time might be different.

      • One thing I am pretty confident of is, that there won’t be a Trump landslide. He might win, but it won’t be by a lot.

        • Bet you 10 BTC he wins AT LEAST 300 electoral votes.

          Not gonna be an issue when he opponent drops out…

        • So I’ll admit I was WRONG in thinking Biden would drop out. He’s CERTAINLY ineligible to be POTUS (being labelled a National Security Risk, totally compromised by Winnie the Flu etc).

          However, lets update the electoral college votes: Trump WINS 461-77.

          Cali and NY swinging Red.

          Bets?

    • Actually no. 2016 was a weird contest in that if Trump did nothing controversial, voters came to him, but then he’s do something horrendous and lose them, but Hillary couldn’t keep them. So leads kept bounding around. In the last fortnight Trump was very disciplined and stayed off Twitter. Going into election day the polls had Hillary in front but they were done a week before polls, Comey announcement trimmed the lead, so it was as if you couldn’t see the last 100 metres of a horse race, but front runner slowing, and challenger diving for the line.
      This time it’s different. There are very few undecideds left to power Trump home, and Biden has kept pretty much the same lead for months. Lead bounced when Trump hospitalised, but we are back to the same old lead. Expect it to narrow a fraction going to poll day but it would be a bigger shock for Trump to win this time than last.

    • Trump may surprise with Latinos and young black voters. If they actually come out and vote it could make the difference.

  3. There are not enough states with republican governors to steal the election on his behalf via the dodgy voting machines. I.e no Scott Walker in Wisconsin this time around. Democratic governors in Pennsylvania and Michigan this time too. Without those states he is cooked.

  4. Red surge building.

    🇺🇸Trump👌🏻 2020

    👉🏻An ECV majority of 60%+, Up 3%

    America a forest of Trump lawn flags
    A sea of Trump 2020 hats

    The left wing radical socialist Democrats and their paid off ‘opinion shaping’ main stream media and the left wing silicon valley social media tech giants fail again.

    Who could seriously elect a weak corrupt skeletal and senile seriously creepy Joe Biden?
    Or the raisin brained Tamil Indian poseur as a person of color & gender Kamala Harris?

    Behind this sham front, the Democrats, riven in racial and factional divides – the nepotistic black cronies who bring in the black bloc vote, the Marxists, the open borders criminal migrant illegal backers, the climate change nutters and the gender confused, all anti American haters.

    Proven failures even in opposition, lies, dirty tricks, corruption, not fit to take government, backing and supporting the global China virus as a political weapon,

    It’s going to be 🇺🇸Trump👌🏻

    Peace, prosperity, no new wars, the China virus defeated and America first.

    🔹Post election scenes

    👉🏾Mass hysteria, the Democrats crying in the gutter age screaming at the sky.

    👉🏾The Democrat incited white trash and black criminals mobs looting and burning downtown.

    👉🏾Good American citizens armed protecting themselves from the Democrat incited left wing and anarchist mobs.

    👉🏾All the paid off corrupted mainstream & social media, the ‘pollsters’ in shock, how could they have gotten it so wrong?

    And in Australia, realisation that the US feed mainstream and social media lies, spin, anti Trump smear – was just that.

    • THIS should be the article; not regurgitated, evidence-free assertions spewed out by the MSM!

        • So I’ll admit I was WRONG in thinking Biden would drop out. He’s CERTAINLY ineligible to be POTUS (being labelled a National Security Risk, totally compromised by Winnie the Flu etc).

          However, lets update the electoral college votes: Trump WINS 461-77.

          Cali and NY swinging Red.

          Bets?

    • Jim's Central Banking

      I’ll bet that Trump loses the popular vote, again. If Trump takes the EC he will be the first American president to get a second term and lose the popular vote both times. Minority rule. Bad news if you like democracy.

      • +1, although not so much bad for democracy, bad for the Environment and the world in general.

      • You don’t understand.
        Many of you don’t understand.
        The US popular vote means nothing.
        In the US voting is voluntary, only 55% vote. (2016)
        So the popular vote is a subset of who voted.
        26% republican v 27% Democrat* who voted* & 45% who don’t.
        *including widespread voter collusion by the Democrats in ‘assisting’ blacks and other factions to legally bloc vote then the mail vote fraud and so on.

        The US is not a National Democracy like say Australia.
        It is a Republic.
        A collection of independent states as a Republic.

        Alexander Hamilton and James Madison make it clear in the Federalist Papers, the essence of this republic would consist—their emphasis—“IN THE TOTAL EXCLUSION OF THE PEOPLE, IN THEIR COLLECTIVE CAPACITY, from any share” in the government.
        Instead, popular views would be translated into public policy through the election of representatives “whose wisdom may,” in Madison’s words, “best discern the true interest of their country.

        Each state has an ECV point score based on population and other weightings.

        The ECV system was designed by the framers to deliberately stop the urban poor masses and black or other voter blocs concentrated in a handful of states in overwhelming the state collective representation.to stop urban poor led by radical extremism French Revolution or then dictators like say Napoleon in urban city ‘voters’ in overthrowing the government.

        So once again – the concept of a national vote in ttecUS is completely meaningless.

        If 20 million urban poor black gullible in say 4 cities and states are all brainwashed or coerced to vote for radical socialism and black separatism, it is contained & capped to just those 4 states ECV count – and never becomes a national vote or national socialist black separatist plan.

        The ECV safeguards the US from radical change, or states with high population bases dominating or monopolising republic collective democratic outcomes.

        • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

          Liked both of your posts mike – although I wavered a bit when Trump caught Covid, this is basically what I’ve been saying since July:

          The contrarian in me demands me to come out and call it – Trump will win this election. There is a slim possibility for an even worse result, that it may result in another hung election, with accusations of vote rigging and illegal voting, etc, but imho the narrative pushed by the media is false, and the real underdog is Biden.

          https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/07/how-el-trumpo-can-win-the-election/#comment-3947415

          I also agree with your warnings over the implications for the false narrative that the media has set up in regards to Trump’s popularity and likelihood of winning, “Post election scenes Mass hysteria, etc”. It is a no lose for the media – Firstly, if by some chance Biden wins, they’ll be proven correct. But failing that more likely, it secondly sets them up for another “illegitimate victory” and will justify the resulting pandemonium both socially and in the market:

          The trouble is that imho, not only is the media failing in its job of producing an accurate summation of facts, their biases are producing a false bubble that they may or may not believe themselves (certainly the rank and file do, but I’m not so sure that those who own the media necessarily believe Trump will lose) which will trigger profound and violent market volatility (and trading profitability), the real harm in what the media is doing to societal expectations.

          The media is setting up an expectation of Trump’s defeat among all the most TDS afflicted progressives. I fully believe that it won’t be Trump who will refuse to acknowledge the results of the election, but the Democrats, the inner city progressive liberals and their antifa black shirts – who all on the false expectations of the media will be certain that the election has been stolen.

          Despite my maxim that “EVERY popular narrative in the media is is objectively false, until proven otherwiseI” I am no longer as sure of a Trump victory, mainly from the influence of reading too many of the opinions and articles of by the asymptomatic TDS commentators, and think it is probably much more likely to end as a draw and in the Supreme Court.

          The expectations that the media have set up, will then play out across the courts. Ultimately this election, and the role the media have played in distorting it, will vastly undermine faith in all US institutions from free and fair elections, to faith in the Judicial system. The msm are the real enemy of the American people, not Trump.

        • Jim's Central Banking

          The Federalist Papers argue against direct democracy. The US uses indirect democracy, as does Australia.

        • James Madison was a genius! The popular vote in the US would be silly. It would mean two very liberal cities in LA (and the rest of CA) and NYC control the outcomes for what they derisively call the fly over states. Yet, these same “elite” and mobile liberals are moving in droves from the homeless, needle ridden, street defecating high tax cities like LA and San Fran to once Republican strongholds like Nashville and cities in Texas. If their neoliberal prescriptions are so moral why are they leaving the resulting cities they produce? Ironically they push for the same policies they just left and will turn these places into hell holes too.

    • Too right Mike, the polls are wrong or fabricated. Got T at 2.90 the other day. Got a spot on him. Your post election summary seems legit. The virus will keep popping up in America. They can’t achieve what we have, not enough trust in the government and because freedums

    • Yup. Being able to watch the the self entitled smug urban cultural elite bawling their eyes out is enough of a reason to vote trump. And this time they cant leave the country in protest, not that they did in 2016, but now they have an excuse not to be faux heroic and leave.

    • The left wing radical socialist Democrats and their paid off ‘opinion shaping’ main stream media and the left wing silicon valley social media tech giants fail again.

      The mind boggles at where actual left-wingers like Noam Chomsky sit on your spectrum if Neoliberal Corporatist Democrats and Libertarian Silicon Valley tech bros are “radical socialists”.

      • Once again Smith you are very out of touch in that little UQ indoctrinated left wing Marxist Brisbane bubble of yours.

        It’s no secret that Facebook, Google and others were paid and colluded with the Clinton campaign in 2016 in anti Trump smear and lies, Google in their omission & search rankings.
        And continue to.

        It’s no secret the California based tech industry joined with the corrupted Nyt & Obama acquired Bezos Washington Post to join CNN & others in highly politicised anti Trump smear.

        It’s no secret that the US celebrities again California and NY joined in the anti Trump smear effort.

        And to a similar degree, the parasite ‘scientific community’ feeding off the climate change alarmism, the open borders importation of criminal illegals and the gender confused, black lives matter terrorists, Antifa (left wing non democracy Marxist radicals) & so on.

        👉🏾So the statement stands with fact to it.

        “The left wing radical socialist Democrats and their paid off ‘opinion shaping’ main stream media and the left wing silicon valley social media tech giants fail again”

        • So the statement stands with fact to it.

          It doesn’t, because none of those things – even if true – have anything to do with “left wing radical socialism”.

          If it helps, an example of what “left wing radical socialism” might actually look like is a hippie commune.

          • Well Smith – let’s look at the key Democrat party factions & voting blocs then.

            Firstly any ‘hippies’ in the US are now in the suburbs as Trump voters, or else alternative lifestyle & doomsday preppers in Colorado, Idaho or Montana – White only Nationalist zones.

            🔹Sanders faction, hard core Marxist
            Old hard core left, young gullibles.
            🔹Warren faction – milder Marxist
            Mature white uneducated woman.
            🔹Allied workers faction
            Marxist / socialist workers collectivism.
            🔹Black vote (83% of blacks who do vote)
            Black crony elitists preaching racial separatism, blank grievance/slavery repatriation, black apartheid and welfare for all (Ethnically aligned black socialist collectivism).
            🔹Hispanic/other racial groups – open borders, Hispanic Socialist welfare & collectivism)

            Other smaller voting blocs.
            🔹Islamic bloc – Islamic sharia law before US law.
            🔹Antifa (German origin Marxist terrorism overthrow democracy) alliance
            🔹Climate alarmists, the US to degrade it’s standard of living to third world level for common global good (science alarmist socialism)
            🔹Gender confused – an uneasy alliance with the Democrats to force the acceptance of individualism (despite the left wing socialists elsewhere say China or Russia total intolerance of individualism / deviancy)

            👉🏾Looks like the Democrats are an uneasy coalition of left wing socialist ideological, racial factional blocs to me and everyone else..

            So let’s see on US election night if this composite swill of Democrat radical left and racial or ideological factions can overwhelm the US centrist & conservative vote.

          • Sanders faction, hard core Marxist

            LOL.

            Not really much point in reading any further. You are dead-set living in another world.

            Sanders is a centre-left moderate (at most) nation-builder like FDR. Or our own Gough Whitlam.

            I mean, you can call either of them (or basically all the Scandinavian countries) “hard core Marxists” if you want, but don’t expect anyone outside of your far-right bubble to take you seriously.

    • Pretty much what I was gonna say.

      I’m no fan of Trump, but Biden doesn’t even know what position he’s running for, or who he’s running against, as demonstrated in a couple of recent videos.

      Back in 2016 I thought TSrump had a good chance of winning despite the polls. I think the same today. I may well be wrong, and thankfully there’s only a few more days of this before we get the result and head into the festivities.

      Whatever happens, I reckon things are gonna get pretty sporty over there.

    • ignoratio elenchiMEMBER

      I’ve bookmarked this under my crazy assertions folder. Good post. I love your conspiracy theories.

    • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

      Great summary and insight as always mike.

      One of the things I’m really looking forward to when Trump wins is shutting up DLS and the progressive idiot cohorts that fill up macrobusiness with their delusional, propaganda-soaked posts which make this forum so unbearable to read at times.

      Hopefully Trumps win will lead this site back to it’s former glory of intelligent thought.

      • LOL.

        The comments on MB have moved _substantially_ rightwards in the last 3-5 years.

        (And the articles have become far more polarised and clickbaity to attract them – presumably that’s where the $$$s are.)

        • 3 layers deep in the comments and I can reply
          Hmmm..

          “MB is now more right wing?”

          Now the meaning of ‘right wing’ in a primitive simple explanation comes from the French (French Parlee or parliament) based on the political representatives seating before the king.
          Right wing was where the libertarians or ‘individual before the common collective’ sat.
          And the ‘left wing’ was where the commune or collectivists (the group before the individual) sat.

          Left wing collectivism gave ‘the left’ bargaining power to represent the largely illiterate & inarticulate peasants or later workers against the highly literate and articulate idealists, libertarians, capitalists and merchants of the ‘right wing’:

          The ‘left wing’ has never has represented individual freedom or rights over the group. It pretends to.
          But it can’t, it’s power is in an elite ‘speaking for’ and ‘being the voice’ or the peasants masses or workers united etc.
          And the inevitable result of left wing socialism – be pan ethnic collectivism such as Leninism or communism, or the evolution of Socialism into the more virulent strain of left wing ethnic bloc or racially aligned Nazi or ‘national socialism’, has always led to a concentration of the masses ‘voice’ into left wing elitist totalitarianism (fascism) and eventual overthrow.

          The left wing identification was at first pan ethnic socialism (communism) of poor masses, and then it’s evolution into ethnically aligned national socialism (Nazi) as the ‘group identity’

          But always run by socialist elitists,, and it invariably fails the people diversity / education and awareness of their individuality and freedoms results in overthrow.
          Usually with tens of millions dead.

          As example: Communist or pan ethnic collectivism in say China, Soviet Union (pre breakup), Vietnam, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, ex Yugoslavia, Romania, Angola.
          Everyone of these evolved into highly racist ‘national socialism’. Russia for Russians, the rest of the old Soviet Union now highly racist national socialist ‘stans’
          China – now an openly Chinese Han Chinese fascist (it means totalitarian) CCP regime.
          Vietnam only for Vietnamese, Venezuela, Angola, Cuba all now ‘national socialist’ racially aligned societies that still impose the racial group identity and needs over any individual rights or freedom.
          And some like the Baltic states, Poland, Indonesia, India, Egypt, Brazil, Hungary, east Germany, Romania, managed to throw off their left wing socialist shackles, and embrace ‘right wing libertarian democracy’

          👉🏾The end game of Socialism is always a totalitarian or fascist regime ruled by an elite, usually backed by a military dictatorship and at the expense of individualism and liberty.
          And across the world – increasing rejected by a more literate and educated people, particularly when given a vote to make that choice.

          Smith / maybe you are the one out of touch with our society?
          Didn’t you back Shorten & Plibeserk – both highly tainted left wing socialist elitists?
          Two very typical example of the rich nepotistic left wing elitist who masqueraded as the ‘Workers or woman’s voice’ etc except that they aren’t their voice at all.

          And Australia didn’t buy it.
          They preferred & voted for conservatism, individualism and libertarian values – even it it was the buffoon Scotty from marketing in charge.
          -/-

          Maybe you are part of a dwindling demographic, the middle aged urban elitist hypocrites who gullibly sucked up and parroted the Marxist tripe, along with the open borders / climate change / alarmist / gender confused / black lives matter mantras…

          But in the real world, you live in a shuttered white only middle class suburb with a high emission job & lifestyle. A classic left wing socialist in name only nimby.

          Maybe everyone else has moved on & is more honest about who they are, and you haven’t?

          • That’s a helluva creation myth you’ve come up with. But Conservatism has always been good at marketing itself – it has to be.

            This is reality: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left–right_political_spectrum

            Right wing was where the libertarians or ‘individual before the common collective’ sat.
            And the ‘left wing’ was where the commune or collectivists (the group before the individual) sat.

            No.

            The Right was where the supporters of the King sat (pro tip: most assuredly NOT “libertarians” or champions of individual rights).
            The Left was where the Revolutionaries sat (probably not particularly big on individual rights at the time – at least not as we understand them today – but fighting for a system of some representation and rule of law).

            The ‘left wing’ has never has represented individual freedom or rights over the group.

            On the contrary, the “left wing” is responsible for pretty much all the individual freedoms you enjoy: rule of law, private property, free speech, voting, full suffrage, emancipation, workers rights, social security, etc, etc, etc, basically all of which Conservatives fought against bitterly (and bloodily), and in many cases continue to fight against today. It seeks to provide support for individuals so that society as a whole can thrive (obvious example: voting/democracy).

            Collectivist action is a manifestation of individual rights (and Unions are democratic) – because without those individual rights to protect them, all the people trying to act collectively would just be thrown in gaol (or executed) at the King’s pleasure.

            (Note that the Founding Fathers of the USA were most definitely on “the left” (Revolutionaries) of their time and not “the right” (supporters of the King).)

            The “right wing” – Conservatism – is mainly focused on taking these things away, or only permitting them in a suitably controlled fashion to ensure ongoing aristocratic rule (obvious example: castes/socio-economic classes).

            Maybe everyone else has moved on & is more honest about who they are, and you haven’t?

            Pretty much everything you’ve written above is demonstrably the complete opposite of reality, and only consistent with hysterical right-wing paranoia and hero fantasies.

        • 3 levels down

          Now that’s a very unconvincing answer from you.
          Typically omission & obfuscation.
          (Below)

          MB & the world hasn’t moved right.
          You have gone left.
          “Left behind” – I would say.

          And the sad reality is that as you increasingly show your ignorance on this forum, you expose yourself as a cliche, a caricature of a typical shallow left wing poseur.

          You don’t even understand what socialism is or why you hold left wing socialist views.

          • MB & the world hasn’t moved right.

            Yes it has.

            And as it has – and continues – to do so, the less power and influence the people have and the worse their situation becomes. The current trajectory looks to be some form of Feudalism (if we’re lucky, where Centrism – “Fake Left” – is headed) or Fascism (if we’re not, where Conservatism – the Right – is headed).

            Notably, the near complete lack of any serious Left-wing influence (eg. locally: Greens, SAP) means the modern Anglosphere is rapidly drifting away from its supposed core principles like democracy, equality and class mobility.

            You have gone left.

            Not since I started reading MB.

            And the sad reality is that as you increasingly show your ignorance on this forum, you expose yourself as a cliche, a caricature of a typical shallow left wing poseur.

            That’s pretty funny from someone who is trying to work backwards from ‘everything wrong in the world is the fault of lefties’ and redefining not only long-defined words and concepts, but entire periods of history, in that effort.

            You don’t even understand what socialism is or why you hold left wing socialist views.

            LOL. We must be close to peak irony.

            Socialism is the ownership of the means of production and exchange by the people.

            My views lean “socialist” for the same reason they lean “democratic”. Because I believe in an egalitarian, fair and free society run by and for the people who live in it, rather than being a rights-less subject at the arbitrary mercies of aristocrats and dictators.

            But ultimately, “socialism” is just a word that describes a particular set of beliefs. The beliefs come before the word. You can try and destroy the meaning of the word (and lordy be, Conservatives have been pretty successful at doing it), but you can’t erase the beliefs.

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      I have a reasonable amount of money here. I’m thinking about getting out of my position. I don’t know where this is going. Probably gonna reinvest it as next president to win without popular vote ($3.60) instead, and even that’s sketchy.

      • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

        RobotSensei, can you get out of a bet on Betfair or other? I’m new to Betfair and I thought you could trade out if odds move in your favour but not take your bet off?

  5. PalimpsestMEMBER

    Probably a silly question because none of us will really know the answer for a few days yet (although I note some high confidence assessments here). I see the Battleground States closing, and that’s expected behaviour. There’s usually a drift towards the incumbent as the election draws close. Yet 538, that has pretty good models, has the ‘election snake’ flipping two States light blue today.. Now light blue is well within the margin of error, but it does seem counter-intuitive implying a last minute blue surge, instead of a red one. I wondered if it’s the Trump rally effect making his own voters too ill to vote. I really have no reasonable explanation except the one about reclassifying voters that have actually voted from ‘unlikely’ to highly likely, and that would create a false blue bias in the polling given the preponderance of early voting among Biden supporters.

    • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

      Palimpset, I don’t know what 538 is, but I suggest your core assumption that polls are correct or even honest is flawed. Start there.

      Voting intentions will be discerned by data mining by those with the skills and resources to do so. Polls are there to manage expectations, underwrite narratives or other commercial reasons.