Donald Trump is going to lose in a landslide

It’s going to be fun watching the anti-American brigade storm back in its support of the US of A as Donald Trump departs.  That exit is now about as guaranteed as anything ever was in politics.

First, let’s consult the polls which are winding hard against him. The 538 poll average swung to Biden post-debate:

And the RealClear version has kept on swinging as El Trumpo sank into the virus:

The swing states are similar:

And betting odds decisive:

For me, the clearest indicator, though, is the Republicans themselves. Their internal polling must be saying similar. Indeed, this:

 

That is why this, at The Intercept:

THE SENATE went into recess Monday afternoon following the news that at least three Republican senators were waylaid with Covid-19. It was the latest in an ongoing parliamentary battle whose outcome could shape both the judiciary and the Senate for years to come. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell had a near-invincible upper hand in the fight, but now his control is far from certain amid the virus outbreak, which seems to have been spread rapidly by the very ceremony that kicked off the confrontation: a reckless White House party to celebrate the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett.

McConnell, who has not said whether he’s taken a Covid-19 test, has made clear his unyielding determination to brush aside any norm or obstacle to implant Barrett into the Supreme Court. To make that happen before the election — or, in the event of a loss by Donald Trump, before the president leaves office — McConnell has two major hurdles to clear. The first is a vote in the Senate Judiciary Committee, chaired by Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican facing a surprisingly close race for reelection. On Monday, McConnell said a Judiciary vote would likely happen by October 16. The second is a floor vote, which McConnell has pledged to hold as quickly as possible after the nomination clears the committee. A floor vote is eyed for sometime around October 26.

The import of this is that the senate cannot and will not vote on the fourth tranche of fiscal stimulus that the Trump White House has been negotiating with Congressional Democrats. The Dems never wanted a deal. They wanted to campaign on huge prospective stimulus so they deliberately set the bar too high for senate republicans to jump over, wedging them from the White House.

It’s worked a charm as Trump’s polling has slumped plus the SCOTUS priority has emerged. Now senate republicans are distracted and don’t want the fiscal deal, either. They prefer to kick both EL Trumpo and an incoming Biden Administration in the nuts. Trump is blaming the Democrats but it’s his own party that has abandoned him:

Indeed, in my view, senate leader Mitch McConnell just served up a dish of stone-cold revenge to long-term enemy Donald Trump.

In recent days, Trump has lost the debate, the virus moral high ground (or low ground depending upon your point of view), a 10% of GDP economic stimulus with markets to slump next, and now his own party. Moreover, a toxic narcissist may actually accelerate his own decline now as the carapace of calm gives way to the rage of public humiliation underneath. That’s more or less what happened in the first debate.

Barring a miracle, El Trumpo is a goner and probably the Republicans in all arms of government too. It will be a great lesson for Washington to learn: populism has its limits and killing your own constituents does not get you re-elected.

Still, I think history will remember Trump OK. Although the virus mismanagement has horribly besmirched the legacy, his disruption of the global Chinese takeover will be the lasting memory.

And that will stand him in reasonable stead in the long roll of history.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)

Comments

    • Ehrmergherd. That’s why anything you say about C19 has to be picked up with ice tongs and dropped in the nearest water closet. That poll was conducted in March, 2020 🙄🤣

      • “Ehrmergherd. That’s why anything you say about C19 has to be picked up with ice tongs and dropped in the nearest water closet. That poll was conducted in March, 2020 🙄”

        My god you are a cretin

        can you even read english?

        It’s not a poll for starters

        • Lol, politics is not like the climate, you cannot use models.

          There is a saying that may be a surprise to you: “A week is a long time in politics”. 😂

          • he follows me around flinging faeces and raving incoherent nonsense

            If he doesn’t want to be abused, maybe he shouldn’t abuse me in the first place?

            If he doesn’t want to be called a cretin, maybe don’t make cretinous statements?

            Anyone responding to my post should at the very least understand what a model is, how it differs from a poll, and how the date of the model creation might be dependent on the inputs to the model

            Otherwise, its not really a useful contribution

          • The presence of the local troll AKA Revert to mean is one of my main reasons for not resubscribing. Who wants to pay to be routinely abused by an opinionated jerk who insists on pidgeonholing everyone and everything into his little binary interpretation of the world ?

            The patronising attitude alone is enough to send me elsewhere. I’d accept it to a certain extent if he’d displayed a level of intelligence justifying the respect he demands. Alas this is not the case.

          • Models: Helmut_Norpoth’s model and others like it “predict past elections astonishingly well and then do poorly with new elections and must be tweaked, after the fact, to ‘correct’ for these mispredictions.” In fact, Norpoth has made changes to his analysis method over time.
            https://theconversation.com/political-forecast-models-arent-necessarily-more-accurate-than-polls-or-the-weather-144266

            No doubt he’ll be tweaking again when he gets this one wrong. He’s basing his prediction on absurd stuff, like the results of primary elections. For 2020, he observes that Trump won the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries by wide margins, and therefore predicts the president will do better than Biden, who split those primaries with Bernie Sanders. Pah-leeze!

          • “Another model that has been in the news recently says that Trump has a 91–95 percent chance of winning re-election and will most likely win 362 electoral votes to Biden’s 176 votes. This model, constructed by Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University, is based on three flexible variables: a presidential voting cycle, long-term trends in partisanship, and performance in the primaries. For elections prior to 1952, the primaries variable incorporates all presidential primaries; for the 1952–2004 elections, only the New Hampshire primary is used; and for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 elections, the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries are used. Norpoth seems blissfully unaware of the dangers of tweaking models to fit past data. We can anticipate more tweaking after the 2020 election.”
            https://mindmatters.ai/2020/07/election-models-predicting-the-past-is-easy-and-useless/

          • Glad I’ve wasted at least an hour of your life so you could google all this
            At least you learned that a model isn’t a poll I suppose

          • Always knew it, but did you learn how absurd such models are?

            I assumed it was a poll bec I could not believe you’d be posting an asinine made-up model here

          • Yup, did an instant Google lookup and saw the date, did not investigate further and uncover the full extent of the mumbo-jumbo behind it until you spat the dummy. 🥱

      • A few points.

        Firstly the only polling which has been consistently correct has been Twitter Sentiment Analysis – from Brexit, Australia – Scomo, UK Bojo, and Hillary Trump – they have Trump way out in front in both positive and negative (higher positive) with almost half accounting for Biden – he is like a distant after thought .

        The Real Clear Politics graph is an average of a meta-poll on other polls – almost ALL of these are online polls where user data is harvested revealing the identity of the person voting. Most of these polls are around 300-700 people (around 400 average it looks like).

        The most significant actual reliable research (not polling) I have seen into US sentiment showed that most US voters will lie or refuse to answer polls if they vote for Trump. This leaves two things happening – people are lying, but more importantly Trump voters wont even answer a poll.

        So the reliability of these RCP polls needs to be put into context – so where was Hillary polling at this time in 2016 ? She was between 5-8 points, two points ABOVE Biden right now – and she was smashed.

        I’ve seen polling showing massive swings in the black community – only a 3% swing in the black community alone would hand Trump the election.

        While the entire Latino demographic is conservative and voting Trump due to BLM totally ostracizing them. Go check out the social media activity around the gang warfare all over the US in response to BLM from Latinos – its crazy.

        Finally the single biggest demographic – whites – have just endured 8 months of rioting in every major city across the USA – you know who they are talking about publicly BLM – because if they don’t they lose their job. You know who they are voting for ? Trump.

        I wouldn’t be so smug if I were you. These polls were 100% wrong last time – they were a mirror image multiplied by almost a factor of two.

        Think about that.

    • Lovely reading.
      I can only hope for both to lose but that ain’t going to happen. Should “Sleepy Joe” lose (91% chances for loss is still not a 100%), it will be a good reflection on silly hopium (and Sleepy Joe gets to write a book “I don’t know what happened”)

    • “91% chance for Trump”. Does that mean if he works really hard to reverse the entrecnhed negative trend and get it up by another 9%, he’s actually got a chance?

      • No, it simply means that someone somewhere has made up a model that looks at arbitrarily chosen variables in the past and looked for correlations. He has then used the same correlations to predict the future. It’s completely absurd, and would only be used seriously by people hostile to reality.

        Pomona College economist Gary Smith warns that these sorts of methods are not necessarily as robust as they may seem. Statistically speaking, he notes, “any 10 observations can always be predicted perfectly … with nine … explanatory variables.”

        To demonstrate this, he used the high temperature on Election Day in five small cities across the country to create a prediction for the 2016 election, which matched up very well – at least from 1980 to 2016.

        That and other examples he provides are reminders that with enough data, “spurious correlations” are everywhere – such as the famous example that from 2000 to 2009, the divorce rate in Maine was very closely matched to the per-capita consumption of margarine in the U.S.

        • No, it simply means that someone somewhere has made up a model that looks at arbitrarily chosen variables in the past and looked for correlations. He has then used the same correlations to predict the future. It’s completely absurd, and would only be used seriously by people hostile to reality.

          A hockey-stick graph projection of Trump’s approval rates perhaps…
          Been done before…

      • I’m starting to think I should download Tor and use my VPN and a bunch of accounts here to start agreeing with everything I say, like some other people are doing. 🙄

  1. America is ready to boot Trump out the door… but I can only imagine the reaction if he somehow, someway manages to pull of a victory. MSM has been relentless in its campaign against Trump – folks could be on suicide watch is Trump comes up top on Nov 3!

    • Either result will be good – for different reasons:
      Trump win – progressive meltdown, suicide watch (and this time can’t blame Russia, surely)
      Biden win – free money for all, massive stimulus, Dollar to get smashed, gold to $3,000

    • “America is ready to boot Trump out the door… but I can only imagine the reaction if he somehow, someway manages to pull of a victory.”

      It’s a bit self-contradictory.
      If US is ready to boot Trump, there would be hardly any chance of Trump winning, MSM would not even bother with polls and there would be hardly anyone offering any support.
      Without relentless and unscrupulous TDS campaigning for 6 years now, the landscape would be different now. People remember that and perceive Trump as underdog which in return has potential to swing voters literally seconds before they vote.
      Trump winning 2nd mandate and how he leads the swamp draining (all presidents tend to be more active in second mandate) will affect his legacy…

  2. And that will stand him in reasonable stead in the long roll of history.

    Lol. He’ll be remembered as the last leader of the US to scorn science. That’s it.

    Just like Scott Morrison will be remembered in history as the wrong-headed fool brandishing a lump of coal in Parliament, against a backdrop of an unravelling global climate.

    • my toranaMEMBER

      Scomo was copying an American politician who took something- can’t quite remember what, uranium or petrol-into his chamber. Even in his stunts the LNP lifts from right wing americans.

      • That’s something we should look into: the extent to which everything in Australia is just a poor copy of all things American, a pale simulacrum by a hollow culture with no real history other than invasion and dispossession of native peoples, a Potemkin village of ideas.

        • Ouch.

          Even if there are some similarities, what’s your point? What’s wrong with that?

        • So Americans are angry and will vote for the big orange so he can make America great again …. AGAIN?

          • Your logic.

            Trump had his chance after 3 and a bit years. Biden is will make the required change after – checks notes – already being vice President for 8 years and doing nothing and in Congress for half a century.

            Sounds legit – do you throw in bridges with that spin ?

          • @ Robot
            how many support or not during polls – is irrelevant, what matters is how many supporters of either side go out and vote and do not swing the vote last second.

          • Biden is will make the required change after – checks notes – already being vice President for 8 years and doing nothing and in Congress for half a century.

            1) Biden’s never been Preznit, never had that power

            2) Murkans would grasp the good ole times of Biden’s past with both hands over the pandemic-ridden, civil unrest chaos of Mad King Donald’s reign.

          • Trump is in the eyes of your average angry American anti establishment (right or wrong). A lot of Americans who voted for him are angry at China. Trump punishes China. That makes a lot of his voter base happy.

            I still see him in with a chance and the latest show of him dealing with Covid and not dying will have a lot of appeal to the conspiracy but jobs.

            So I haven’t discounted him winning still.

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            @Djenka
            It seems like those white non-college voters are going to have to turn out in record numbers for Trump to go anywhere close to repeating 2016:
            https://www.npr.org/2020/09/03/907433511/trumps-base-is-shrinking-as-whites-without-a-college-degree-continue-to-decline
            The demographic shifts in the US and 4 years of old white guys RIPing makes it an uphill battle for him. And that’s not even scratching the surface of the lunacy he has put forward over the last week.

          • @ Robot

            Another equally possible alternative is that the other mob simply does not turn out for vote
            Perhaps thinking Trump is toast, as peddled by MSM.
            I do not see grounds for mobilisation for Sleepy Joe supporters to turn out en-masse and reflect the polls during a poll when it matters.

          • Trump had his chance after 3 and a bit years. Biden is will make the required change after – checks notes – already being vice President for 8 years and doing nothing and in Congress for half a century.

            What would “doing something” look like ?

      • A financial bet is not a prediction (a trap so many ordinary people fall into).

        A financial bet is taken when the odds seem out of whack with probability.

  3. I am thinking along similar lines that Trump is in trouble but he did surprise me with his last move which I did not think he is clever enough to play it.
    I still think he will lose but, at this point, I am not sure it will be landslide. I rather wait and see how voters will interpret his move to withdraw from negotiations with Dems on new stimulus.
    He also declassified all documents on Russia’s “meddling” and Hilary’s emails.
    Wait and see. He is behind, no doubt.

    His biggest problem is that MSM will not give him any oxygen.

    • Yeah…. I’m starting to be inclined to agree with the mainstream view again. Despite my ‘Every mainstream media narrative is false…’ thesis saying Trump should still win, I’ve become much less confident. The odds outside of my thesis are probably less than 50% in terms of him winning.

      I still have issues with those pollings and polling methods, and apparently the betting markets can be pushed around relatively easily with a few large bets…. in my more conspiratorial moments I sometimes wonder if a S0r0s like character isn’t putting huge bets for a Trump victory in the financial markets, while investing relatively small bets in the betting market to create a view in the opposite direction.

      Personally I think coming out of hospital so soon was an enormous mistake, firstly he had access to top notch medical care that very few Americans will have access to plus and experimental drugs, so there’s an issue of a lack of humility and empathy. Secondly this is a disease that lingers often flaring up in the second week – if this occurs he is 100% finished. I understand why he did it, his back is against the wall imho so he has nothing to lose.

      Regardless of the outcome Trump has provided great entertainment and it is interesting to note that despite how much combined effort and collusion between the DNC, the MSM and top level leadership within various Govt agencies worked to get him out of office it was ultimately the ‘China Virus’ that has probably brought him undone.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Watch YouTube, go to reddit, tune in to alt-right blowhard babble and you’ll see it plain enough.

        MSM or no MSM it’s just not there this time, people don’t hate/mistrust Biden enough and only the rabid racists love Trump. Even the evangelicals are like ‘meh Jesus is the only answer anyway “

        • Jim's Central Banking

          I think that’s it too mig. No one really hates Biden the way they did Clinton.

          2016, the dems run a widely hated candidate who has an FBI investigation running against her in the last week of the campaign = Trump scores a narrow win and loses the popular vote.

          2020, the dems run your slightly cringey grandpa. And Trump now has a record to defend.

          It doesn’t seem like a landslide win scenario for El Trumpo.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            Not just a record but personal behaviour. It’s pretty bad and you’d need an amazing record of delivery to actually get over that hurdle imo

      • Stewie, i think the main point of difference is that the progressive left now control the narrative in both msm AND social media. A big part of trumps success was using twitter etc and there were plenty of contrarian “inluencers” on social media eg yiannopoulos, gavin mcguiness etc who have been banned or muzzled. Trump has struggled to energize the masses and the loss of effective social media is a big part of that. And covid of course, but he has been muzzled from getting the whole story out. If he loses i really think we are in the poo as regards free speech and balanced commentary.

        • For sure Squirrel – that’s such a good point. Social media had a much more plural voice 4 years ago, the amount of censorship and siloziation that has transpired since then as progressives have seized control of that space too, is simply staggering.

    • His biggest problem is that MSM will not give him any oxygen

      This can actually swing people towards him if he display the absence of oxygen is MSM’s attempt for joint criminal enterprise undue influence trading towards undemocratic election outcome – as plausible.
      There’s plenty a time and my view is that Trump still has his one more critical swinging lined up just waiting for the right moment. Could be Hillary’s collusion with Russian influencers… entertaining times though, I love cold sweat on foreheads of TDS sufferers.

      • I love cold sweat on foreheads of TDS sufferers.

        Not drops of sweat but tears of joy as he lurches towards either death or defeat

        • This comment obviously makes indication that observing differences between future and present time is quite challenging.

          It is OK to admit suffering to TDS and I applaud to everyone admitting – it is the very first step towards happier pastures.

      • He used to be able to bypass msm via social media. Thats been severely curtailed. I still have hope though.

    • His biggest problem is that MSM will not give him any oxygen.

      You mean other than the most popular channel, Fox News, that has him on 24/7, or the hundreds of right wing radio stations across the US?

      • RobotSenseiMEMBER

        He needs oxygen alright. If he just shut up and focussed on his breathing, he might feel better.

      • except for Fox News no other major channel gives him any platform to say something. And on top they spread lies. Where is the proof of Russia helping him? But even these days some of those channels still mention Russia in a way it was helping Trump and still does.
        He now released all documents on Russia and Hilary. Let’s see how many of those channels will actually publish them and cover them in detail. Yes, it will be mentioned in 3sec clip and move along.

        • RobotSenseiMEMBER

          It’s amazing how quickly all these documents can get collated and released when the political timing is right. I guess the photocopier in the WH has been broken for a few years.

    • This time last election RCP had Hillary between 5-8 pts up.

      DLS review is based on Real Clear Politics – this is averaging polls from battle ground states from online news websites. Basically people are voting in NYT, Wapo, CNN online polls – these are averaged and conclusions drawn.

      These polls vary in number from 300-700 votes averaging around the middle.

      From what I am seeing in the efforts being made on Twitter, Facebook, Youtube, Reddit etc algorithms the internet and mainstream media are doing everything in their power to project a Trump victory.

      I’ve spent 20 years in online advertising and marketing so my “Google-Fu” is better than almost anyones (not many are doing Twitter sentiment analysis in R Migtronix maybe) – and the ground swell of support for Trump is absolutely massive.

      I think the most telling statistic of the last 6 months has been that overwhelmingly Trump supporters will lie on POLLS about who they intend to vote for – even anonymously – for fear of the stigma.

      I would suggest that there has been a huge swell in the black vote towards Trump, while the entire Latino community has switched to Trump after the BLM riots – their position is one of viciously anti BLM as they have been entirely excluded.

      White America will vote more Trump at this election – that the last election.

      So for those on here taking averages of polls on CNN, MSNBC, NYT, WAP as conclusive polling based on 400-500 people – you are going to be in for a rude awakening. Hillary was 2 points further ahead than Biden at the same time in 2016 – let that sink in.

      • good points. this is why I don’t trust polls. I remember last elections.. I am basing my view on the polls. I think covid19 may have swayed many undecided voters against Trump. If that’s not the case then Trump wins.
        Agree about white, latino and black votes 100%.
        Many people lie when they are polled from fear of losing their jobs too. I still remember reading back in 2016 people being fired the day or day after they publicly said they will vote for Trump.

        • Yup. All these polls are one of two things – land line (only old people) – online where IP address is gathered.

          No one is going to say Trump.

      • ignoratio elenchi

        I’m bookmarking this post. I’m intrigued as to why anyone black would vote for Trump.

        • Kimberly Klacick, etc. Movements like “Walk Away”, “Leave the Plantation”,

          There is a massive social media campaign highlight Biden say the “N-WORD” repeatedly in congress, taking back the streets from the “N-WORD”, yesterday he said we were only able to get through Covid because black women were stocking the super market shelves.

          Dude has said some seriously racist stuff.

        • All the rappers used to love Trump before he ran as a Republican.

          Trump might pick up some African American voters appalled by the riots. Funnily enough, some people don’t like their property and communities being trashed.

          According to one survey, a third of African Americans polled thought the BLM movement was dangerous. See: https://unherd.com/thepost/blm-divides-white-americans-more-than-anyone-else/

          The Don has also announced a $500 billion “Platinum Plan” for the African American community.

        • Movements like Blexit have gathered quite a lot of steam in the last 12 months. Essentially it is a movement that asks, why as black people do we keep voting Democrat? What have they actually done for the black community? Essentially it focuses on the fact that the Democratic party takes the black vote for granted.

      • Nick the GreekMEMBER

        Yep I tend to agree with this view. I think he will surprise for the win as well.

  4. Finding it hard to get a recent update on the eleven gubernatorial elections. If the virus gets away from them over their winter again it looks like Mr Biden will lean towards a nation wide shutdown which will give him cover to really push state and local government budget support. With their system the Governors will have a fair bit of say on how strict this shutdown would be.

    • Yes, it’ll be an interesting one, given that most Blue states and cities are essentially broke. Somehow the Federal govt will have to step in here. Either way, rivers of printed money

      • They day they pass the budget is the day the EU and China switch to Crypto and end support for USD,

        Lagarde just announced the EU switch and China has already been trading with a dozen Asian partners for a year or so.

        Not sure how the USA expect the rest of the world to continue to support them printing $2.5 Trillion dollars to pay out school district super visors on full salary as a pension for life at $180k, cops are banking $160-$200k based on over time.

        • Yep, those public sector pay and pension arrangements – particularly in the Blue states are outrageous. Hope it all burns to the ground quickly so these people find themselves on pay they actually deserve.

  5. reusachtigeMEMBER

    I’ma gonna love it when Trump romps it in and smashes all your soft emotions. Hahahaha!

    • I certainly hope so. I hope he crushes Biden.
      I want to bathe in the warmth of Leftist tears and point and laugh at their lamentations.

    • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

      It would be interesting to run an MB election book. I think I’d get yuge odds for Trump based on the comments in this thread. But then again I think the Trump haters would fall away if money on the line. I find it hard to believe people really think like the opening article or comments here suggesting that Biden is even a serious contender, I suspect they are just posting to have an argument. Trump is the greatest president of the modern era, the world becomes a different and scary place if he loses. God help him overcome the naivety of all the sheep.

  6. And if the democrats win this a good thing? they are far worse the republicans and the Donald.
    The dems are a disease that are assisted by the media degenerates in trying to fracture the country in half.

  7. Yep, good call, DLS, he’s gone for all money. Proud Boys can’t save him. His only hope is some long-shot Steven Bradbury, via SCOTUS or the Electoral College.

    If I were Mitch McConnell, I’d devote all my energies to elevating Trump’s Bitch onto SCOTUS. Alito and Thomas have made their evil intentions perfectly clear.

  8. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    Watching deal with the dual delirium of dexamethasone and losing power will be pretty entertaining for the next month.
    He has slid from $2.70 to $3.00 overnight. Time to place some hedge bets…

    • When I won heavily on Trump 1st time round, I picked him up at $5 and bet all the way down to $4.50.

      $3 seems too short for mine. If he gets out to $5 again, I may have a cheeky wager.

    • yep – throwing a couple of hundred on him today @ $3. If that doesn’t wrap it up for Biden nothing will.

  9. BoomToBustMEMBER

    Like many elections, you never know the outcome until the end, scomo won the unwinnable election.

    • Can one steal elections in USoA, the most powerful state in the world???

      Perhaps some world powers can recognise Sleepy Joe as the president if Trump wins – citing electoral theft?

        • It would be a lovely troll though. 😉

          It does not require stones, it requires bigotry. No other powers have ever done Venezuela / Belarus stunts.

      • Agreed. I think this is a bit hysterical – if it’s as close as Bush v Gore, then fair enough, otherwise the loser will go quietly.

      • Charles MartinMEMBER

        The Russians.
        They’ve had a hand in everything acording to Rachel Maddow. It amazes me how the most powerful country on earth, gets duped by those pesky Russians all the time. The only answer is more military and intelligence spending and more and more surveillance of your population.

      • Voter suppression is a Conservative tradition and under Trump it’s been turned up to 12.

    • PalimpsestMEMBER

      Sadly this is my expectation. He is desperate. There are plenty of armed hard core supporters to call out to patrol voting booths. The postal votes can be denied. He can’t afford to lose protection from prosecution or let anyone audit the books. He can’t afford to lose the family income generated from the presidency. And the American polity is soft. They don’t really understand what an unconstrained desperate person can do.

      • RobotSenseiMEMBER

        Yeah but… why do they want to fight for him? Why do Republicans want to fight for him? If they lose the senate and house, do you think they’re suddenly going to go in to bat for a lame-duck president? That’s the real prize the Democrats want – the ability to control the agenda. Do you think Trump wants to have barrage after barrage of audits rolling out from the houses to bat off? He might strike a deal to go quietly if they leave him alone.

        Imagine you’re Biden. You’ve won the senate and house, Trump comes to you and goes “I’ll leave if you promise to pardon me on the way out. Otherwise I will FSU for months through red states and courts, there will be civil war”. Do you make the deal?

    • I’m still betting he will “win” in a stolen election. Can’t underestimate the fragility of the US political system.

      Per John Oliver’s show a week or two back, Mitch McConnel & co. have been playing a long game stacking the courts for years.

      The real danger with Trump is not the man himself, it’s the people he enables. The danger from Scomo is the same (albeit via a different path – ignorance and ideology rather than greed.)

      For the first time in my life, I have a genuine fear America might actually break.

  10. Election still up for grabs – 2016 showed that polls and even the popular vote won’t mean much given their Electoral College system.

  11. The same thing was said in 2016. He was no chance. Though he was running against the most unelectable candidate in the history of voting. Nov will be interesting.

  12. the biggest qn is whether he is really sick or not. How many of his inner circle gets very sick

    • Skippy posted this today, and it applies to Trump too:

      Herman Cain/coronavirus timeline:

      6/24: Attends Trump rally, maskless
      7/2: Tests positive for Covid-19
      7/10: Says he’s improving
      7/15: Says his doctors seem happy
      7/27: Says he’s really getting better
      7/30: Dies

      The only difference is that they have given Trump every medication in the pharmacy

      • RobotSenseiMEMBER

        If things get real, @RealDonaldTrump will continue to blue-check tweet while he rides a dragon in Valhalla

      • PolarBearMEMBER

        Yes very true. The progression of COVID-19 is relatively slow. It usually takes about a month to die. We haven’t been given very reliable information on Trump’s “recovery”. If he’s actually still quite sick, he could still be progressing on this timeline and could drop dead a few days before the election. Unlikely though – he’s only got about a 3% chance of dying with all the treatment he’s getting.

  13. We better apologize quick fast and bow to our Chinese masters now that they will have free reign over the pacific with a very predictable (and pro- “free trade with China”) Harris administration).Wind of change is blowing.

  14. Trump was 100 to 1 last election.

    Their camp knew they were going to win. Don’t know about this time.

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      They were so confident last time they booked out a tiny little function room for their victory speech. Come on, even they thought they were going to lose.

      • No they didn’t. Facebook offered personality tests and used algorithms to gauge who was bendable towards voting for Trump. They then bombarded them with anti Hilary propaganda, and the algorithms showed them they were successful.

        Have you ever seen footage of the ACTUAL Trump meetings? As opposed to what the media showed?

        Trump knew he was going to win. So did I. I can dig out more detail if you don’t believe me.

        I saw a FB page that had tens of thousands of people who chose Trump ahead of the election. I bet on, and made a lot of money.

        This time I don’t know what’s going on, but I have a gut feeling he’s going to lose.

  15. my toranaMEMBER

    He cared, at least somewhat, about the jobs of his own people and didn’t start a war. I quite liked the direct and unpredictable commentary for a short term change, as well. can imagine four more years of it might get a little old.

    • Didn’t start a war and tried to stop them, wanted to get the troops out of the ME. Shoved it up wall street and their MSM, didn’t get influenced by cancel culture and said what he thought.

  16. It seems like he is probably going to lose, though I have no idea

    I will be a little sad to see him go

    He was absolutely hilarious
    And really highlighted the hypocrisy of the media and politicians on both sides

    I enjoyed his willingness to call a spade a spade

    His policies on the environment were disappointing
    Everything else I thought he did ok – no better or worse than any other recent US president

    Whatever happens, he has changed politics forever

    • Angry Temporary

      Even funnier was is predilection for calling a spade a silver spoon, and a heaping pile of excrement a pot of gold. I guess there were those who lamented the downfall of Franco, Mussolini, et al, but we can take solace that they were all on the wrong side of history.

      • like what?

        I found his greatest moments of bluntness/candour came when peeling back the washington curtain

        Like when he suggested the middle east should be paying USAF money (like the mercenaries they are)

  17. PolarBearMEMBER

    David I’m not sure why the polls are the first thing you consult in all your article’s about Trump’s election prospects. Have the polls solved the issues they had when they got Trump’s first term and Brexit so wrong? I haven’t consumed lots of MSM on Trump’s infection with conronavirus, but I didn’t think he came off too badly in campaign terms. My impression was that despite his narcissism and politics it gave him a human side around COVID-19 and supported his politics that COVID is not that bad “hey I’ve caught it too, don’t let it get you down”. I’m not a Trump supporter, but not so sure he’s going to lose either. We will know in four weeks time!

    • The social media, internet algorithm and main stream media narrative around Trump is completely different to what is happening on the streets.

      Michelle Obama just released a video about how Trump was stoking racism and provided evidence that the BLM protests were peaceful with less than 10% of protests being violent.

      People went through that data – 10% was around 1000 violent riots in the USA – turns out those riots were in the most populated protest zones – while peaceful protests included “honk for biden” on the side streets of a vineyard in the Napa Valley outside the French Laundry.

      Hillary was 2 points further ahead of Trump at the same stage in 2020 – your answer your question.

      • Charles MartinMEMBER

        fvck me, of all the people who shutup about everything, Michelle Obama is one of them.
        She was almost relevant for 8 years, now, not so much. She seems to comment more than Barack does.

      • You should hope that you are wrong. The re-election of Trump would be a true casus belli for many people, and provoke worldwide chaos.

        • Democrats are FAR more militant and adversarial. While Obama started more wars than both Bushes combined.

          You have profoundly rose tinted glasses while your frolic in the rose garden listening to strawberry fields.

          Biden was in power for half a century and was personally voting for almost every single anti-black policy in American history, I hate Trump – but your position on the international position is wrong.

          • Charles MartinMEMBER

            It’s amazing how people refuse to acknowledge that Obama was a war monger. The MSM is to blame here, but also the people who eat it up without question.
            Biden has been a cvnt for almost 50 years, why reward him with a Presidency?
            All countries need congressional and parliamentary term limits, to stop parasites like Pelosi to fester and to allow the up and coming AOCs to begin to fester.

  18. ScoMo was no chance, Brexit was no chance as well.

    It’s not over.

    Trump will ultimately be correct about his handling of the virus.

    Do you think Biden will immediately implement a 6 week nationwide lockdown if he wins? Will infectious states be cut off from the rest of the country like Victoria?

    Of course not.

    At the end of the day Trump’s handling of the virus no worse than nearly any other European leader.

    Sweden went the herd immunity route yet they don’t get 1% of the criticism of Trump.

  19. Paging Col:

    “Still, I think history will remember Trump OK. Although the virus mismanagement has horribly besmirched the legacy, his disruption of the global Chinese takeover will be the lasting memory.

    And that will stand him in reasonable stead in the long roll of history.”

    What do make of that my alpha, old buddy, old pal?

  20. I do so earnestly hope you are correct. I’m not close enough to the detail to form a good judgement except that what matters is who turns up and where. Clinton lost last time because she turned off too many democrats – perhaps Biden will be different.

    The track record of US polls does not inspire confidence – it would however be very interesting to see a state by state electoral college breakdown if you can get it?

    Also I clearly recall the narrative leading up to the last election

    “Trump will never run”
    “Trump will never get nominated”
    “Trump will never win”

    All of which turned out to be completely wrong

  21. Based on these ↑ comments, if they represent typical Aussie thinking, there is a pretty low level of understanding of the big issues facing mankind in Australia, and how best to go forward.

    Meanwhile, billionaire wealth reaches new high during COVID-19 pandemic

    ZURICH, Oct 7 (Reuters) – Billionaire wealth reached record high levels amid the COVID-19 pandemic, a report by UBS and PwC found, as a rally in stock prices and gains in technology and healthcare helped the wealth of the world’s richest break the $10 trillion mark.

  22. That’s a big call. Personally I will bet on Trump winning. I don’t know why anyone would trust the mainstream media or polls for anything. They are more of a contrarian indicator.

    • PolarBearMEMBER

      I can’t wait for the revisionist MB article if Trump wins. It was “Bravo Quexit” for the last Federal Election upset. Maybe “Bravo Chinexit”?