Australia’s property glut worsens

With the release this week of the ABS’ dwelling commencement and completions data for the June quarter, it is an opportune time to plot Australia’s latest quarterly dwelling construction data against actual and projected population growth, as outlined in last week’s federal budget.

First, below is the national picture, with annual population growth forecast to crater to just 50,000 in March quarter 2021 versus dwelling completions of around 180,000 dwellings:

Next we have NSW where population is forecast to decline by 2,000 in the year to June 2021 versus dwelling completions of around 45,000:

Next is Victoria where annual population growth is forecast to bottom at 13,000 in June 2021 versus dwelling completions of around 58,000:

Next is QLD where annual population growth will crater to 33,000 in June 2021 versus dwelling completions of around 30,000:

Next is WA where annual population growth is forecast to bottom at 10,000 in June 2021 versus dwelling completions of around 14,000:

Finally, SA’s annual population growth is projected to crater to 1000 in June 2021 versus dwelling completions of around 11,000:

Earlier this week I provided detailed forecasts of actual dwelling supply using the ABS’ net dwelling additions data. This also pointed to a monstrous property glut.

Unconventional Economist
Latest posts by Unconventional Economist (see all)

Comments are hidden for Membership Subscribers only.