Vacuous VIC opposition would still get thumped in election

Via Roy Morgan:

In Victoria support for the ALP is now at 51.5% compared to the L-NP on 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis according to a special Roy Morgan SMS survey on Victorian voting intention with a cross-section of 1,147 Victorian electors aged 18+ over the last few days.

The two-party preferred support for the ALP has dropped a significant 5.8% points since the 2018 Victorian State Election while L-NP support is up 5.8% points.

Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Victorian voting intention shows that if a Victorian Election were held today the ALP would be returned with a narrow majority for a third term of Government.

Primary Vote for ALP plunges since 2018 State Election

Primary support for the ALP is now at 37%, down 5.9% points since the 2018 Victorian State Election and now behind the L-NP on 38.5% (up 3.3% points).

Support for the Greens is up slightly to 12% (up 1.3% points) while support for Other Parties has increased to 8.5% (up 3.4% points). A further 4% of Victorians are now supporting Independent candidates, down 2.1% points from the 2018 Victorian State Election.

Two-Party Preferred support splits by Region & Gender

Two clear splits have emerged in Victoria with city-dwellers in Melbourne and women supporting the ALP on a two-party preferred basis while Country Victorians and men are more likely to support the ALP.

Women clearly favour the ALP on a two-party preferred basis with support at 57% compared to only 43% for the L-NP. In contrast a majority of 53.5% of men support the L-NP compared to 46.5% supporting the ALP.

Melburnians (who comprise the bulk of the population of Victoria) favour the ALP on a two-party preferred basis with support of 53.5% compared to 46.5% for the L-NP while in Country Victoria support for the L-NP is at 55% compared to only 45% for the ALP.

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,147 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted on Tuesday September 15 – Thursday September 17, 2020.

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the ALP would still be the favourite if a Victorian State Election were held today although support for the L-NP has risen substantially since 2018:

“The Second Wave of COVID-19 in Victoria has led to a tightening between the two major parties with the ALP on 51.5% only narrowly ahead of the L-NP on 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis in mid-September.

“ALP support has dropped substantially since the 2018 Victorian State Election with primary support down nearly 6% points to 37%. This support has flowed to several parties including the Opposition L-NP, up 3.3% points to 38.5%, the Greens, up 1.3% points to 12% and Other Parties up 3.4% points to 8.5%.

“However, the big split that has emerged is between the genders and between Melbourne and Country Victoria. The ALP retains big leads amongst women (57% cf. 43%) and in Melbourne (53.5% cf. 46.5%), but the L-NP is now well ahead with men (53.5% cf. 46.5%) and in Country Victoria (55% cf. 45%).

“As Victoria (hopefully) emerges from the Second Wave of COVID-19 in the next couple of months the big issues will revolve around supporting businesses and re-booting the Victorian economy and providing jobs for the hundreds of thousands of Victorians now looking for new work.

“The next two years presents a huge test for the ALP to rebuild it’s credibility after the devastating impact of the second wave of COVID-19 following mis-steps in the Victorian hotel quarantine program for returned travellers and inadequate contact tracing and testing in Victoria compared to its counterpart in New South Wales.”

Victorian Primary Voting Intention. By Gender & Region

Victorians 18+ Gender Region
2018 Victorian
Election
Sep 15-17,
2020
Women Men Melbourne Country
Areas
PRIMARY VOTE % % % % % %
ALP 42.9 37 40.5 33.5 39 29.5
Liberal 30.4 35 31 38.5 36 31.5
National 4.8 3.5 3 4.5 0.5 13.5
L-NP 35.2 38.5 34 43 36.5 45
Greens 10.7 12 15.5 8.5 11.5 13
Others 5.1 8.5 6.5 10.5 9 8
Independents 6.1 4 3.5 4.5 4 4.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100

Victorian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention. By Gender & Region

Victorians 18+ Gender Region
2018 Victorian
Election
Sep 15-17,
2020
Women Men Melbourne Country
Areas
2PP % % % % % %
ALP 57.3 51.5 57 46.5 53.5 45
L-NP 42.7 48.5 43 53.5 46.5 55
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100

After everything, whatshisname would still lose.

David Llewellyn-Smith

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