Mortgage market turns shuffling zombie

From CoreLogic weekly property indicators, the leading mortgage index has entered some kind of zombie state:

 

Materially down on last year and far down on previous. Remember that this is owner-occupiers only and investor mortgage are far worse.

Listings are still providing some market support:

But it is artificial given the huge fall in locked down Melbourne.

No much to make a specufestor cheer in this data still. Full report.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

  1. How are there no listings? It must be a lie, are they hiding numbers in ‘off market’ sales? No foreign buyer is selling ? Listings of rental investments are stymied by the six month freeze on evictions?
    Après moi, le déluge.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      I know quite a few people in their 40s and 50s who have sold recently. A lot more than usual for people in my orbit. None of them because they had to. All of them planning to trade down whether in Sydney or outside. Half are waiting for big price drops before they buy back in.
      I’ve been thinking about buying and moving to Windsor/Richmond area myself. Nice old houses up that way and the difference in prices with Ermo would leave a large chunk of cash aside. Where would I put that cash?
      Is that MB fund any good Dave?
      😘

      • Where would I put that cash?
        That’s the question that everyone I know is asking.
        they all acknowledge that RE is risky with a huge downside but if not RE then where should you put the cash?
        It’s a sad indictment on just how hollow and narrow the Aussie economy has become that even those that are worried to death about their finances still can’t find anywhere better to stick the money when they know the economy is tanking. Houses n Holes about says it all.

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      I can tell you now that there are HEAPS of off market sales in Melbourne.
      Many properties ‘testing the water’ without officially being for sale.

    • Firstly, landlords can’t evict tenants, so they cant get the property ready for market, or sell with vacant possession. Secondly, owner occupiers are on mortgage holidays so why sell when you are getting “free” accommodation? As soon as you sell you are either going to have to start paying rent or a new mortgage, so best to sit tight and save the money you otherwise would be putting on the mortgage.

  2. Recently spoke to a REA who suggested that there was no lack of buyers in the market but that they were struggling to get loans approved not because they weren’t any good. Her reason for this was that ANZ had their loan factory in Bangalore and St George’s in the Philippines, both of which are struggling with high Covid numbers and work from home issues so can’t get the loans out the door fast enough.

    • The Penske FileMEMBER

      ANZ are taking circa 40 days to pick up a file at the moment. Strangely people wait even if for a few dollars more they can get a like me product. The sub prime market is dead though in Victoria.

      • My partner got a loan approved by ANZ a couple of days ago that she applied for back around the end of May. So around three months to process a small loan to a long term APS employee on a 6-figure salary.

        • Wow.

          Because outsourcing?

          If that were me, I’d be off to another bank. Jeez that’s a long time – see my comments below re: WBC and Newcastle Permanent.

          • She was going through a mortgage broker (and I hate those cnuts with a passion) and at the start of August applied to two other banks…Bendigo and somebody else…after giving up on ANZ, but those others were so slow that ANZ eventually came to the party before them.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      A lot of outsourced services are struggling, but those jobs aren’t getting re-shored. At least not yet.

      The lack in re-shoring is part optimism, part lack of local skills. As Meinhof said above, what a narrow, hollow economy.

    • WBC : AIP in a couple of days, unconditional in 3 after val received, calendar week from val ordered to unconditional.

      Newcastle Permanent conditionalapproval 24 hrs, unconditional from val ordering < 1 week.

  3. https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/banks-to-fund-government-stimulus-bill-20200907-p55t0f

    RBA will print dollars and buy these back off the banks, essentially turning our residential mortgage banks into intermediaries between government deficits and the printing press. A week ago they massively expanded the funding facility (you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours). Now this. Re: last weeks empty platitudes from Lowe and Co., look at what they do, not at what they say.

      • Preparing for expansive QE.

        Personally, I’d go further and say they’re laying the ground work for defacto debt monetization. It all depends on what happens to the credited cash.

        • Jumping jack flash

          Good. Its about time. Perhaps they will throw some of that fresh QE cash into the hands of their people who they’ve shafted for at least the last 20 years. With the blessing of the governments, magically, private debt expansion turned into an economy, replacing almost every other activity that was actually productive.

          1.8 trillion debt dollars. Really, government?
          It is a travesty beyond words.

  4. Hill Billy 55MEMBER

    Yeah those listings are such a furphy. In Brissie for sale signs everywhere and apparently savvy southerners are snapping up all the “bargains”. We’ll see! Another 1150 odd sales in Qld last week. Mate its getting crowded up here!

    • Jumping jack flash

      Have seen the odd one or two pop up here, Northside, but not heaps yet.
      Construction of those townhouse farms around here is still going strong, though.

  5. A work colleague mentioned today that he had his house valued last week. It is now worth significantly less than when he bought it. It’s located in recent outer urban growth area, I presume his in selling is due to divorce.

    According to his real estate agent he should hold on to it until next year. Apparently next year the borders will open up and foreign investors will flood the market. I tried suggesting to him that this was quite unlikely, but he wasn’t receptive to those thoughts…..