Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon


It’s risk on and damn the torpedoes with stock markets surging after the weekend gap, starting with a very positive mood here in Asia. The USD is finding a little bit of resistance following its very strong run last week although gold is really struggling to get off the floor, opening down slightly to the $1858USD per ounce level:

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is putting in a scratch session going into the close, currently at 3217 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is surging after a poor finish last week, about to close nearly 1% higher at 23429 points. Japanese stock markets are also clawing back confidence, with the Nikkei 225 closing 1.3% higher at 23511 points despite a small drop in the USDJPY pair as it rolls over following an exhaustive swing rally last week:

The ASX200 was the odd one out, unable to gain any direction from the start to the close, finishing a handful of points or around 0.2% lower at 5952 points, while the Australian dollar remains subdued here just above the 70.50 level, with a minor bounce off a very oversold bottom:

Eurostoxx futures are extremely positive, up more than 1.5%, with S&P futures also in positive territory, up around 0.6% with the S&P500 four hourly chart looking in a much better positive here, reading to bounceback above the psychological 3300 point level:


The economic calendar is pretty clear tonight with only a couple ECB wonkish speeches to watch out for.

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  1. oil does look like its going to hold. I’m going to go out on a limb and say by the time US market opens it will be flat.

  2. Wellie it seems that Queensland is the – new – Mexico for cased up Melbourne and Sydney siders looking for more bang for buck and comparatively more relaxed lifestyle …. toooooooo funnnnnnnnie …

    Ground hog day for me since Calif in the 80s ….

    Progress – !!!!!! …. sorta like the poor in the Philippines getting bulldozed to make way for high density apartments to house FIRE sector employees not that long ago … cackle ….

      • Booked up 4 months in advance with the common small job thrown in, about as good as it gets in this game. Although I would not suggest its indicative of the over all construction market, we are niche, something I tend to promote and have had good success in the past with.

        Just did 4 houses on the same street with in less than two month, 6 houses on the same street in two years, 3 houses on the street were on now in less than 2 months, etc. Word of mouth and potential customers seeing the before, works in progress and finished job E.g. You can’t buy that sort of advertising.

        • TailorTrashMEMBER

          Good to hear of someone in a good niche in building …in these difficult times …so what is your niche Skip ?

          waterproofing shonky bathrooms ..?
          releveling shonky pathways ?
          repairing cracks in shonky concrete ?
          Fixing popping laminate floors ?
          Replacing swollen chipboard kitchens ?

          Or putting doors back where they should always have been in “open plan “ living areas ?

          In strayan building the potential is huge …good luck to you ……a quality workman will always be in demand …

          • Queenslanders interior and exterior, post war, some high quality 70s/80s builds, with a few roofs and decks thrown in.

            I’ve got all the festool, graco, and devilbiss conventional gear so I’m on jobs from the start through the finish. Last Qld’er was just a block down the street in red hill, did almost the entire outside and repaint of the old remod done 10 years before down stairs, plus fixing the stuff the first mob screwed up.

            Had to sand back to bare a remod 2 story wall done in pine weather board because the original paint job mob let mold into the wood and painted over it. Wood was already rotting out .5 to over a mil behind the paint in less than 10 years, like the thing had a bad rash all over it.

            This is why I walk through all aspects of a job with clients and inform them, so – they – can make choices and know what they are paying for. Imagine telling your boss his quotes are too cheap and he’d get more work with better clientele if he raised his rates and made sure things were done well. All contra to the dominate view in the market sector of fast hard cheap and lie to clients then run away and if you get pulled up on less than one in ten its still a win. With a wash every year our jobs should last 10 years or better with only a reduction in gloss level.

            How do you tell people to day that long term greed is OK … but short term greed is what kills Capitalism … sigh … its just so DEVO …

          • TailorTrashMEMBER

            Yes GB .. I saw that interloper ….he is Trailer Trash …so looks like he can’t afford a subscription ….I might be willing to gift him one if he changes his handle and can contribute to keeping this site open to free opinion …

          • TailorTrashMEMBER

            Jeez skip that is seriously good stuff … preserving Queenslanders and heritage….amid the sh1t and glitter of modern day Queensland architecture…..more speed to your elbow ……now I know where all that deep economic thought comes from ..sanding time ,,,
            ( something I understand )
            On ya mate !!!

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Something else to add to your metaphor: in neither case did/do the already resident inhabitants English do speak good.

      • Most are of anglophone heritage and later generation Australians, few Eastern European professionals [chemical engineer per se], and the odd Asian medical professional [predominately].

        I think southern Australian capital cities copped it the hardest due to being seen as the most internationally cosmopolitan, but that is how fast money nouveau riche travel, same was said of early robber barrons from the U.S. stinking up traditional British and European hang outs … wink >>>

    • And he sells another 100,000 shares just before the announcement almost right at the peak.
      Shares down 19% since he sold

    • as a new parent I can only imagine how frustrating it would be going to the supermarket to get formula and having all the shelves cleared out.

      • And, not being able to afford a house because of money laundering by foreign kleptocrats and anchor princelings.

      • As an old parent whose child never had formula I can’t understand why people don’t use the free option, give your child great immunity, prevent obesity, improve bonding and give 7 extra IQ points for free.

        • I agree, unfortunately the missus is not able to produce enough milk to cater to the young ones needs. If it was up to me I’d keep trying, but as you are probably aware. If you tell the missus how to do something it just results in arguments. My mum is of the same opinion re: breastmilk, as am I.. but as I say I don’t argue.

        • As an old parent whose child never had formula I can’t understand why people don’t use the free option, give your child great immunity, prevent obesity, improve bonding and give 7 extra IQ points for free.

          Because sometimes there isn’t enough of the free stuff to keep the child alive, or the child and the producer of the free stuff can’t be in the same place at a convenient time.

          • Great to hear, Gav.
            @Dr Smithy I know all the counter arguments to breastfeeding but I continue to be a lactivist because 1. It’s hard to understand how with no change in our biology we’ve gone from at least 90% of women being able to breastfeed to about 5% in Australia? The issues are psychological and cultural. And 2. it’s a class issue, I’m sure you’ll agree. Ruling class women started handing their babies to other women to feed in the dark ages. It’s obvious in today’s China women use formula as a status symbol becauseOnly peasants breastfeed. Aside from being incredibly convenient for mums, breastmilk benefits babies and someone needs to stand up for babies. I’m tired of the women who have children who think their right to go back to work is more important than caring for their baby. Yes I blame society for that as well.
            3. We lactivists have to convince mums to breastfeed before the baby is born because once bottles and formula are introduced the baby gives up on the breast, I don’t know why, all very contrarian.
            so I spruik my experience of going back to work full time at 11 months but still managing breastfeeding after childcare. It can be done. It’s not that hard.


    New CDC Estimates: Fatality Rate For COVID-19 Drops Again And May Surprise You … Zerohedge

    Submitted by Mark Glennon of Wirepoints

    What’s are the real chances of dying if you are infected with COVID-19? You’ll probably be surprised how low they are according to new numbers from the Center for Disease Control. We’ll state those numbers simply for those of you who aren’t crazy about math.

    The CDC’s new estimate, for the first time, is broken down by age groups. Here is what the CDC calls its “current best estimate” of chances of dying from the virus if you get infected:

    1 out of 34,000 for ages 0 to 19;
    1 out of 5,000 for ages 20 to 49;
    1 out of 200 for ages 50 to 69; and
    1 out of 20 for ages 70 and up.

    Here’s another way to look at the same numbers. If you get infected, your chances of surviving are as follows:

    Age Group Probability of Survival

    0-19: 99.997%
    20-49: 99.98%
    50-69: 99.5%
    70 : 94.6%

    … read more via hyperlink above …

  4. today missed on few trades as I got caught on how our gold miners traded. I was expecting them to close ~0.5% down and most opened up and kept going higher even when price of gold fell.
    Will be funny price of gold falls ~$30 tonight. There will be panic selling tomorrow morning.

      • futures up and people start to think again that markets can only go up and Fed can really print unlimited amount without any consequences. Very very few understand that when US Gov is forced to unleash massive fiscal stimulus in order to avoid permanent riots USD will start to collapse fast.
        Have I said that, I really think US will start, but blame it on Russia or China, major conflict before USD collapses.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Far be it from me to pose a serious question on a topic I know nothing about (gold) (economics) (FX) (DXY) (well you get the idea), but, under those Apocalypse Now conditions where DXY is collapsing and S&P would be cratering (despite stimulus), wouldn’t gold price (in USD terms) rocket?

          • yes it will but before we get to those apocalyptic times we will have few more runs like tonight.

            btw.. gold seems to recovered all the loses for the day.

            or if stimulus talks collapse then I think USD will appreciate against everything and even gold for very brief period which can present us with buying opportunity. Nothing better than to see price of gold falling real fast and real sharp over couple of trading sessions. It will trigger panic selling in gold miners which will cause some miners to trade at levels when gold was $400 below whatever level gold will be at that point of time.

      • looks like selling was short lived. I doubt anyone knew what caused it. Clearly is not what I thought.

  5. I thought I will live long enough to see people bragging when they pay more tax due to them making even more money/profit and contributing to the society. I give up.

    • In this proud land we grew up strong
      We were wanted all along
      I was taught to fight, taught to win
      I never thought I could fail
      No fight left or so it seems
      I am a man whose dreams have all deserted
      I’ve changed my name, I’ve changed my face
      But no one wants you when you lose

      Don’t give up
      ‘Cause you have friends
      Don’t give up
      You’re not beaten yet
      Don’t give up
      I know you can make it good
      Though I saw it all around
      Never thought I could be affected

      Thought that we’d be the last to go
      It is so strange the way things turn
      Drove the night toward my home
      The place that I was born, on the lakeside
      As daylight broke, I saw the earth
      The trees had burned down to the ground

      Don’t give up
      You still have us
      Don’t give up
      We don’t need much of anything
      Don’t give up
      ‘Cause somewhere there’s a place
      Where we belong

      Rest your head
      You worry too much
      It’s going to be alright
      When times get rough
      You can fall back on us
      Don’t give up
      Please don’t give up

      ‘Got to walk out of here
      I can’t take anymore
      Going to stand on that bridge
      Keep my eyes down below
      Whatever may come
      And whatever may go
      That river’s flowing
      That river’s flowing

      Moved on to another town
      Tried hard to settle down
      For every job, so many men
      So many men no-one needs

      Don’t give up
      ‘Cause you have friends
      Don’t give up
      You’re not the only one
      Don’t give up
      No reason to be ashamed
      Don’t give up
      You still have us
      Don’t give up now
      We’re proud of who you are
      Don’t give up
      You know it’s never been easy
      Don’t give up
      ‘Cause I believe there’s a place
      There’s a place where we belong

  6. The Traveling Wilbur

    You can let your sweater-vested hounds back off the leash y’all. Cashed out of ASX this arvo.

  7. Getting pretty quiet at the new job, everyone seems happy it isn’t busy, damn fools. Unless there’s a big turn around in consumer confidence in a hurry (lol) I expect to be getting laid off again soon.

  8. Anybody watching four corners tonight? Tarneit… Holy sh!t. Misery embodied. And our government wants to keep increasing debt levels. Cr!m!nals!

    • TheRedEconomistMEMBER

      World of pain for Tarneit Hairdreaser….. “This business was good .. i have many 5 star reviews on facebook.” Now the bank is knocking on their door.

      Then the developer from Fraser Property just wants more fresh bodies being imported.

      Was interesting to hear the journo say “Without immigration Australia would have been in recession earlier.”

      • Scømo will not stand for that. Don’t worry, that journo will get his marching orders soon. After all Malcolm managed to get rid off Alberici in the end. No reason they couldn’t do the same to this little journo

  9. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Four Corners was great. The Lock. Us. Down! fearful psychos that flood this sh1t hole have got their destroyed economy. Good on yas ya cunce!

  10. Woot woot!!! Macrobusiness got a mention in Media Watch just then!!!!!!!
    About exposing the Domain lies about the RE agent who bought two properties OTP but was actually working for the developer selling it. Big MB icon on the screen with the article that exposed it.

  11. The Traveling Wilbur


    Trump out to $2.10 on Sportsbet. Biden now 175.

    Edit: Biden now paying $1.75… 😁