Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Bill Evans on what the RBA should print

The rebound from overnight was only followed through on local markets with the rest of the Asian risk complex still lacking the confidence to ride the BTFD wave. The USD continues to firm against everything, espeically precious metals with silver cracking below $24USD per ounce to a two month low while gold has fallen below the key $1900USD per ounce level as it fails to regain above previous support:

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite was rebounding into the close but is finishing flat, currently at 3281 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is off by only 0.1% to 23962 points. Japanese stock markets reopened without any confidence, the Nikkei 225 closing a few points lower at 23346 despite a continued lift in the USDJPY pair as it heads up through the 105 handle in a nice rebound:

The ASX200 was the best in the region by surging more than 2.5% on the back of ScoMo’s NBN Part Deux plan, closing at 5923 points, while the Australian dollar remains hovering just above the 71 handle and looking very weak going into tonight’s session:

Eurostoxx futures are more positive, up 0.6% or so while S&P futures are nominally up, but only by 0.2% with the S&P500 four hourly chart still looking like a classical dead cat bounce here as the 3300 point psychological level remains the key area to watch:

The economic calendar ramps up tonight with German consumer confidence, a swathe of flash PMI prints across Europe and then the US, plus a few hearings on Fed officials.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

  1. Inverse head and shoulders on DXY- dollar is making its move. Fed will need to print like crazy to hold it down.

  2. Lets face it, there are times when Keating appears to have lost his marbles. But for this piece he has absolutely nailed the lack of credibility the RBA has these days.

    Keating: ‘Reverse Bank’ has to quickly rediscover the gear stick

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/keating-the-reverse-bank-has-to-quickly-rediscover-the-gear-stick-20200923-p55yh5.html

    But the Reserve Bank is now having another one of its dalliances with indolence.

    Knowing full well that monetary policy can now no longer add to nominal demand — something that now, only fiscal policy is capable of doing — the Reserve Bank is way behind the curve in supporting the government in its budgetary funding measures.

    For a moment, it showed some unlikely form in pursuing its 0.25 per cent bond yield target for three year Treasury bonds and a low-interest facility for banks.
    But now, after 600,000 superannuation accounts were cleared and closed down, with 500,000 of those belonging to people under 35 – a withdrawal of $35 billion in personal savings – and further demands arising from the employment hiatus in Victoria, the deputy governor of the bank, Guy Debelle, yesterday strolled out with debating points about what further RBA action might be contemplated.

    He could easily have added ‘after a decade’s worth of forecasts wages explosions about 18 months away’ or ‘after a decade taking Australian house prices out of reach of younger Australians’ or even ‘after a generation loading Australians with staggering volumes of personal debt’ or just as arguable ‘after a generation wiping out Australian exporting and import competing activity with an overpriced dollar’.

    But it is nice to see even an ex-politician sort of grasping the socio economic predicament Australia faces, and one for the first time in ages acknowledging the implication for anyone under the age of about 50.

    The Reserve Bank Act has two objectives – price stability and full employment. Well, for the moment, we don’t need to worry about price stability. One would need a microscope to find any serious impetus to inflation. But we do need to worry about full employment. And that is where the Reserve Bank Act is relevant.
    The Act says the bank and the government should endeavour to agree on policies which meet that objective – in this case, employment.

    In other words, the bank should be explicitly supporting the government so the country does not experience a massive fall in employment – impacting particularly on younger workers – those who have already been obliged to wipe out their superannuation savings to support themselves.

    But instead of that, in funding a level of government outlays by buying appropriate levels of government debt and locking it away on its balance sheet, thereby making the government’s funding task much easier and support for the country better, the deputy governor conducts a guessing competition on what incremental step the Bank might take to help.

    It has to be remembered, these are the high priests of the incremental. Making absolutely certain that not a Bank toe will be put across the line of central bank orthodoxy.

    Well said again. These are the guys who have warbled on about Monetary policy being ‘supportive’ for a decade or more, while looking the other way at the creation of bullshit jobs, and away from rising house prices. There is good reason to question if they ‘get’ the magnitude of the economic disruption Australia is now facing.

    Certainly not buying bonds directly from the Treasury. Wash your mouth out on that one. What would they say about us at the annual BIS meeting in Basel? Not even ambitiously buying sufficient bonds in the secondary market, like the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan.

    The RBA should return its eye to the Reserve Bank Act. Its job is to help the government meet the task of full employment. Price stability has been more than achieved.
    So, the Reserve Bank might do as it was set up to do – help the government. Be a utility. Shoulder the load. And in a super-low inflationary world, that load is funding fiscal policy. Mountainous sums of it.

    In an economic emergency of the current dimension that means putting the orthodoxy into perspective and doing what is sensibly required.

    Hit the nail on the head here too. The RBA often seems to have its head inside its own anal sphinctre, and is terrified of thinking about anything outside that warm safe world.

    The problem about central banks — and this is true of the Reserve Bank of Australia — is that it has become a sort of deity, where lesser mortals might inquire, however respectfully, what the exalted priests might be thinking or have in mind for their prosperity or the country at large.

    The only difference between the deity and those to be governed is that the governor and his deputies do not wear clerical collars and black suits. But that is the only difference in their comport and attitude.

    Deputy governor Guy Debelle’s meandering thoughts yesterday about the Bank and monetary policy is way not good enough. Not good enough for those likely to be unemployed. Not good enough for those who have already lost their retirement savings. Not good enough for a government trying to fund a massive support program for an economy in distress.

    The Reverse Bank has to quickly rediscover the gear stick and make the shift back to forward.

    Now if we can only get some politicians in office, or up for election to start making similar noises.

    • It cant be done
      Banking has driven the nation into the monetary equivalent of the China Syndrome.
      All this is just posturing around the edges of a black hole.

        • Back in the day when i was in the jungle
          We trooped out the back of the Hercules, and the chief medical officer gave us a packet of paladrin for the mossies and he stood in front of a pile of boxes of Ansell condoms.
          I thought, what is going on here?
          HE said, Wiley, what size are you, I said 50×250, Sir (see battery technology)
          So he grabbed a carton of that size.
          Now the deal was, whenever we were in the jungle, we had to wear them
          We had lemon to rub on our skin,,
          But if a leech got on or in your old fellah
          He assured us we would know what pain was.
          We always wore them.

          • well, i wasnt allowed to wear shorts.
            but we had the 7.62 L1A1
            and we would put one over the flash eliminator on the barrel
            and 1 over the magazine. Keep the rain out.
            No one opted for the small fitting

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            No one opted for the small fitting, indeed. Knew there was a reason you put a twinkle in my eye. 😉

            Diff subject, but literally was thinking of you today, re insights on ‘how the f could that happen’ – catching the train home, go to check the one and only food vending machine at the station to see if there’s any more change in the coin return resevoir, and, lo and behold, sacré blūe green, it’s gone! Electricals and concrete-sunk-into-the-platform-bolts cut at floor level too. x4 (at least). Drinks machine still present.

            How bad do things have to be before those frachises start getting resumed?

            And, thank you, for your service.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Sadky PJK opining on the downfall of a regulator or similar august body responsible for the rule of law (you know, like Government) and the welfare of this nation-state is now a bit like Garfield criticising John for letting him get to be such a fat pussy.

      He might have a point, he might even be right. But you just know the massive schadenfruede gap involved in analysing his ‘deeply held beliefs’ can’t be bridged. And that at any moment he’s likely to cough up a massive hair-ball.

    • Given our disagreements on Keating, you may be surprised to hear I completely agree with what he said as well.
      He has hit the nail on the head. And it is about time someone said it.
      The RBA has lost all credibility. it is a disgrace. For the past 5 years, Inflation has averaged about 1.6%, almost a full percentage point below the midpoint in the band.
      When Menzies designed the charter he heavily weighted it to full employment and welfare. Jim Cairns claimed to have influenced Menzies to get the full employment objective in the charter.
      b. the maintenance of full employment in Australia; and
      c. the economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.

      Since inflation targeting started in the early 90s emphasis has been placed on objective a (price stability) and b in as much as high inflation would require a self inflicted recession.
      But since Lowe took-over he has failed on all three objectives.
      Inflation has been well below target, unemployment has been far too high.
      Targeting the 3 yr yield does nothing, because it would be there anyway absent intervention. The 5 yr yield is barely any higher.
      Paying interest on reserves is a disgrace. It is a direct subsidy to the banks which has a contractionary effect on the economy.
      His comments around negative interest rates make no sense at all. If a 1% cash rate is more expansionary than a 3% cash rate, why is a -1% cash rate less expansionary than a 1% cash rate?
      What he means is it will compress bank margins if it leads to a drawdown in deposits or they can’t put a negative yield on deposits for regulatory reasons.
      Well fix it. Change regulation or remove currency over time or take-up 007’s My RBA idea and issue your own negative yielding deposits to the public following a forced buy back of currency.
      How is it they have only just cottoned on to this now? Other central banks have been working on ways of overcoming the zero lower bound for the past 10 years.

    • Having said that, I should add a caveat that Keating has a lot to answer for himself having been responsible for the inflation target in the early 90s with Bill Kelty.

        • Yep.
          And a lot of the pressure for inflation targets came from business. Probably because they didn’t want to deal directly with unions and wanted a reference point for pay negotiations.

    • Does anyone know how it’s possible to measure price stability or full employment when the ABS data is FOS?

      • I completely agree with the point you make. Which is why I think the ABS should be funded by operations of the RBA (as a benefit to the people of Australia) and that a specific range of quarterly statistics – particularly revolving around consumption, demand, wages and inflation – should be provided as a national service to the people of Australia.

    • Gunna,

      It is more than a bit rich for Keating to be moaning about the RBA acting like it’s role is little more than to support private bank credit creation as the fundamental driver of economic activity.

      That process was started by Keating, even if Costello and Howard strapped on the rocket shoes.

      But if this is Keating recanting then it is a welcome development.

      He should swing by the Glass Pyramid and read up on MyRBA as that would be an excellent stick of dynamite to toss at the Banker Boys in the Liberal Party.

      A democratic central bank balance sheet ( aka MyRBA) and trickle up economics is the only politically and economically viable way of unwinding the hostage taking of the economy by the private banks.

      https://theglass-pyramid.com/2020/09/09/covid-19-the-perfect-time-for-trickle-up-economics-and-myrba/

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      “But that is the only difference in their comport and attitude.”

      But either way, both cohorts are evil?

  3. Re pumped hydro.(spun hydro more likely) initial source;the AFR:
    In further evidence of the difficulty of making pumped hydro projects stack up Genex Power advised of another delay in reaching financial close on its $700 million Kidston project in North Queensland.
    Genex, which is aiming to create a $1 billion renewable energy hub on the site of a disused gold mine west of Townsville, said it was working to extend an approval from the Australian Energy Market Operator and to extend agreements with transmission grid company Powerlink to fit with the revised financing timetable.
    The 250MW project, which is backed by Japan’s J-Power and has a 30-year customer contract with major retailer Energy Australia, was due to get the go-ahead, but Genex said it was still seeking to finalise negotiations with project partners to conclude financing.
    The Queensland government late yesterday reaffirmed its commitment of $132 million of funding for transmission, while the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, which has agreed to loan $610 million for the venture, extended its offer of funding for another 5 months.

    Pumped hydro projects by Origin Energy and AGL Energy have both been dropped for reasons including high costs.
    WW other reasons primarily include, that they are not efficient, and are unreliable.
    And still no word of what Gupta is up to????

    Meanwhile EM described a new generation of electric vehicle batteries that will be more powerful and longer lasting than the company’s current cells, and half as expensive.
    The larger cylindrical cells, named 4680, 46mm dia, 80mm long, will provide 5x more energy, 6x more power and 16% greater driving range, Musk said,
    Full production is about 3 years hence.(multiple terrawatts)
    To further reduce cost, EM said Tesla planned to recycle their cells (10 year life) at its Nevada “gigafactory”, while reducing cobalt, one of the most expensive battery materials, to virtually zero.
    T also plans to make cells at several highly automated factories, globally.
    EM noted they were going to process their own, US sourced, lithium, and maybe nickel.???
    Very risky time to be invested in speculative mining companies.
    Very risky time,to be invested, full stop.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        The bit I learneded [sic] (thanks to Trump and COVID coinciding) is that this has always been America.

        PS Today’s cartoon is dumb.

        • To the extent it mocks the desperate people who had had enough of being reamed by the Clintstone status quo – yes, it’s a bit low.

          • Sure and that squares decades of neoliberalism … you know the one where the moderate republicans … cough Clinton’s established the DNC and purged all labour democrats …

            Not that the Republicans threw the barn doors open under Raygun anyway, not to forget or forgive Bush Jrs antics … hello its the FBI and we are seeing massive mortgage origination fraud … Bush Jr advisers … what fraud … you know we have a war on terror to win ….

          • Glad you called, skip! Agreed on all points. War on Terror? Shocking – and a colossal waste of money, I’m sure a marsupial would agree. And no few Libertarians too 😉

            Speaking of wars, allow me to throw in LBJ’s War on Poverty — introduced 1964, $20 trillion spent and …. poverty today is exactly the same level it was then. You could knock me over with a eucalypt leaf! No, really …

            On the bright side, many Uni educated people (academics, bureaucrats etc) made handsome livings out of this rort (pardon me, ‘war’), so it’s all good. Happy days fckn!

          • You should probably acquaint yourself with Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act of 1996, not to mention wages and productivity diverged in the mid 70s along with executive remuneration going parabolic, so I can’t find any foundation to your odd number fixation – is just so neoliberal TINA.

            BTW I was meaning to ask how you think you don’t use models when the rational agent buddy is a core feature to your philosophy E.g. models are not just numbers and physics, those are just symbology for the philosophical axioms.

          • ‘Models, philosophy, axioms’? Seriously?

            This is just a smoke-screen to add credibility to a vacuous argument. Baffle with bullsh*t.

            Try it with someone else

          • Its not controversial Dominic and anyone with a functional knowledge about this stuff understands it and its foundations wrt neoliberal economics, which ever guise its wrapped in.

            https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/?s=neoliberalism

            Please I have decades of archives which has AET up to it eyeballs in this paradigm. “Saying” it ain’t so is hand waving and utterly vacuous.

    • But you know what’s not being discussed much? The impact of a Biden win… which could also cause an implosion. I am not sure the Trump supporters are gonna love that either.

      • I think Trump will get in but I hope Biden does – it’ll just accelerate the process. Once I have a destination in mind, I just like to get there 😉

  4. Someone legitimately told me today to “learn to code”. I laughed so hard, not that it’s a bad idea, just made me think of how many times that gets tossed around on here (seriously and in jest).

    • It’s a family-friendly version of PJW’s LA is a sh*thole 😉

      The key question from a lot of these episodes is why are the Democrat-run cities the worst of all? The opposite should be true but it’s not.

  5. Arthur Schopenhauer

    UQ are terrified of Drew Pavlou. Shvt scared.

    There must be a raging inferno behind all that smoke.

  6. blow it out you ass Chris. I thought you had more integrity than that. You are no better than the rest who cover the truth

    • When you go to someone else’s place, it’s considered polite to follow their rules. If you don’t like their rules, rather than arguing with them, just don’t go to their place any more.

      • The internet isn’t ‘their place’ and the internet is regulated by public agencies. You can’t do what you want with your car on public roads without recourse.

        • I wasn’t taking about the internet as a whole, I meant MB specifically.

          I see MB as being like a local pub run by Dave, Leith and Chris with Gunna filling in occasionally.

          I sit and have a few drinks and chat amiably with my fellow regulars. Generally we agree with each other, sometimes we don’t and that’s good. The only bloke who agrees entirely with me is me.

          Occasionally strangers pop by and that’s good too. Maybe if they like the place they’ll become regulars.

          Some of the regulars are a bit unusual, but they’re tolerated because they add character and don’t hurt anyone. Hi Reusa!

          The pub, like all pubs, has rules. If I (or anybody else) breaks the rules, starts a blue, gets disorderly and abuses the other punters or the publican or whatever, the publican has every right to kick me out. If I really fcuk up the publican may ban me. That would make me sad because I’ve been coming here for many years and I like the place and the other regulars (Hi Harry) so I try to get along with everybody. If someone sh1ts me, I don’t start a punchup with them, I just ignore them and talk to people who don’t sh1t me.

          If everybody thought of MB as a their local pub, with regulars, visitors, a few harmless drunks, some eccentrics and the occasional CCP astroturfers and intelligence officers, the world would be a better place.

          • Well that buggers everything: I don’t drink. More of a worry, neither does boomy. (maybe MB needs to do a maccas and employ a barista or two).

      • Not true Chicaron. The internet is hardly regulated at all. And again, please read the comment rules at OUR website. I decide what gets posted on the Macro Morning/Arvo posts, and unfiltered ZH cut and paste jobs don’t make the cut.

  7. NEW ZEALAND: WILL GROSSLY EXCESSIVE MORTGAGE LENDING SAVE US ? …

    … What lessons were learnt from the Central Bank of Ireland ? …

    RBNZ wants interest rates lower, faster; Works towards introducing Funding for Lending programme before cutting the OCR next year … Jenee Tibshraeny … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/news/107192/rbnz-affirms-guidance-hold-ocr-025-until-march-says-funding-lending-programme-would-be

    The Reserve Bank’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee is planning to introduce a Funding for Lending Programme (FLP) before it cuts the Official Cash Rate (OCR) next year.

    It essentially wants to push interest rates lower in coming months without going back on its word and cutting the OCR before March 2021. … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    … Why did the Central Bank of Ireland following the 2007 crash (putting all its Banks to the wall .. requiring 70 billion euro of mainly German bailouts ) and extensive research ( access via link below … extensive further information just updated http://www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org ) take the decision to generally cap lending to 3.5 times annual household incomes ? …

    Mortgage Measures – Central Bank of Ireland .

    https://www.centralbank.ie/financial-system/financial-stability/macro-prudential-policy/mortgage-measures#:~:text=The mortgage measures are aimed,-income (LTI) limits.

    • Note my comments re the reverse bank here
      ditto for the land of the longest dark cloud.
      Banks and property spruikers, have ruined the joint.

      • WW … Sharon Zollner, Chief Economist ANZ New Zealand is outstanding …

        Tick. Tick podcast: The economic phoney war and what will happen to house prices … Eugene Bingham and Adam Dudding … Stuff NZ

        https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/122845115/tick-tick-podcast-the-economic-phoney-war-and-what-will-happen-to-house-prices

        … concluding …

        … ANZ (Bank) chief economist Sharon Zollner says we’re still in the “phoney war” stage of the economic crisis. …

        … The housing market has been shielded by plunging interest rates, the easing of mortgage lending restrictions and mortgage deferment schemes.

        “But we do expect a few wobbles in the housing market before we’re done because we’ve taken a real income hit as a country. Our ability to pay ludicrous prices for houses has actually taken a hit – that must count for something at some point.” …

        … “A lot of tourism businesses are used to a very lean winter. But from October onwards, there are literally hundreds of thousands of tourists every month who aren’t arriving. The fact that Kiwis can’t go off overseas is never going to make up for that. And so we haven’t really felt the impact of that yet either. But there’s not much we can do about it in a hurry.”
        .
        .
        Access recent MacroBusiness post … starting on the path of allowing affordable housing to be built …

        https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/09/macro-afternoon-970/#comment-3988730

    • A Chinese investment firm — I’m sure there’s no money laundering involved. Just sound business sense.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Just think how crisp and clean all the players’ uniforms will be though!

        Unless Costanza’s in charge of supply orders again.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Yes.

            And some of the players were struggling with the cottton uniforms and humidity too.

            Frankly, it was a lot like a Panthers after-match players function.

        • Young bird at Alderley bottle-o was chatting with me with me the other day, I casually dropped in a Costanza reference, blank face, asked if she’d watched Seinfeld, still blank. Blew my mind she had never heard of Seinfeld, I left feeling very old.

          • Can you name any other show where the central character was the least funny, least memorable character in the show? And where the person behind the central character is even less funny and less memorable than the character they were playing?

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            @[email protected] Don’t fall for it. It’s a bait and switch strategy. And the genius (management) part of it is conning the poor lass into thinking all these shift changes are ‘managing performance issues’ strategies / helping out the team with other members having ‘personal matters’ to attend to.

  8. happy valleyMEMBER

    Lovely to the ASX take off today on the prospect of the RBA happy clappies going up my anus again next month with a rate reduction – just off to the supermarket now to stock up on KY jelly.

    • Don’t you know that in a Keynesian world consumption drives the economy and savings are irrelevant? True story.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        I do and just saw Bill Evans’ Westpac is gearing up to pay Austrac $1bn in penalties for the bank’s accommodative money “processing”, so I guess depositors will carry the can for that? Can’t have management, borrowers or shareholders be affected, can we?

  9. You know why God called the bit between a belly button and hips is called a waist, right? Could have fit an extra set of bobs in there

    • Rahail and his team make the 240z look awesome. One of my bugbears with the Japanese (and other Asian countries) is that they have always been found wanting on vehicle design front — the Europeans have always been way out front: mainly the Italians and the Hermanns but even the English.

      • Enzo Ferrari made beautiful cars. The newer ones not so much. Italian design has always been awesome in terms of the right curves in the right places.

        But I love my 240z’s and my FD RX7. Which I feel are 2 of the best shapes to come out of Japan. I like GTRs but more for their brutalness and purpose than their sheer beauty.

        I do like the direction of the new 400z but I want a few further tweeks before the final version and. The Mazda RX concept of a couple of years ago was jaw dropping beautiful, but appears to be on ice.

        I’ve grown to appreciate the Japanese styling over the years. Not everything is great. It’s quite bland, but I find the same of many European and American cars to be honest.

      • This is bad news — applications to live in the economic paradise that is Straya will balloon I tell ya. QLD specifically – buy property before everyone else in the world does!

        • Shouldn’t there be a huge incipient exodus like East Germany? Since we are becoming North Korea according to libertarians.
          North Korea where the democratic leader of Victoria has never been more popular according to the polls and decades old legislation is put into action as part of the response, and the leader fronts abuse from journalism for hours every day and ridicule on social media and a completely biased and hostile press, and refuses even to fine people who create new clusters in Casey.
          Libertarians must hate that. Why is Dan still so popular? Why isn’t journalism working?

          • 95% of the population are little more than sheep, so it’s no surprise. They’ve been successfully programmed over the years so they know ‘what’s good for them’.

            You’re right, it’s not the libertarian way, but the problem with a supine population is that it encourages more tyranny. That’s human nature for you. What are the population willing to endure when controls are imposed? And so on …

            Politicians are public servants — or, at least, they’re meant to be — but they’re increasingly behaving like overlords. Rulers. It’s subtle, so not all would notice, but it’s important the distinction is detected.

            You need to gen up on history, Sweep — right now, you’re like a turkey voting for Christmas. Or maybe the frog in slowly heating water. On the plus side, you’re a model citizen. 😉

          • yeah but Victorians haven’t been programmed because they aren’t falling for Murdochs HS anymore.
            And you hate that don’t you?
            Why can’t Victorians fall in line and accept that more virus, death and unemployment is a good thing?

          • @Gunna. Yes they are.
            @ Sweep. I don’t hate anything. Au contraire, my friend. In fact, since discovering libertarianism I hate nothing at all. I feel, er, liberated. Victorians are welcome to the government they elected. I offer no judgement in this regard. Don’t you get the government you deserve? We have a Labor govt up here in QLD — I don’t lose an ounce of sleep because of it. I just go about my daily life and don’t worry about that which I cannot control. But always happy to support a just cause.

          • “In fact, since discovering libertarianism I hate nothing at all.”

            And then you wonder why its referred to as a religion, might behoove you to understand its religious roots as well, not that Hayek said altruism had to be forced from the human condition so the market could price correctly …. is that to infer that humans should abandon being human so the market can function?

            BTW would you consider indoctrination a form of discovery?

          • The problem with Libertarianism is not that it teaches you to hate others, it’s that it teaches you to not care about others.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          All the Hungarians I’ve worked with are really smart, attractive and industrious. It would be a net win.

    • And they’ve just announced a huge stimulus package to stop the fall in the economy, which contracted more than Australia in the Jun-20 quarter.
      Could the doctors be any more wrong?
      The libertarian strategy has led to more deaths, more infections, worse GDP and a huge about face when reality meets ideology.
      Originally I put it down to ideology. eg. people have different ideas of the best strategy but want to get to the same point.
      Increasingly I am thinking libertarians just place nil value on anything other than themselves. And ideology is a smokescreen.

      • Oh, the rants! The only ideologue round here, sweep, is you.

        Look at yourself in the mirror from time to time. You can’t escape the truth by ignoring it.

          • Sweep, I’ve always declared myself open-minded during this crisis and enjoyed the debates. Looking at both sides of the argument is important. But there have been several who nailed their colours to the mast early-doors.

            That’s reckless, IMO, and not my style. But each to their own.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        “nil” is an understatement Sweeper. When you click to it’s actually, for them, about how much is person x, y and z dying going to cost me? – then you’ll be nearly there.

        • I think that is probably right.
          In which case it isn’t an ideological dispute it is a matter of right v wrong (with ideology disguising wrong)

        • “Give me convenience or give me death” has become more than just a snappy Dead Kennedys album title.

    • “Considers”

      This is click bait much like article they published claiming the Swedes regretted their policy, when they never raid anything of the sort

      You want to be terrified , and you swallow all this evidence and content free nonsense you are served

      What’s this mental illness that you seem to have called?

      Stockholm syndrome

      • You name the criteria then:
        How will you judge Sweden has been more successful?
        More cases, more deaths, lower GDP, bigger increase in debt/GDP.

          • quality of life? For people who die from COVID and their families?
            Freedom? when you are stuck in ICU with COVID? Rawlsian freedom or Kentucky Fried Chicken “Freedom”?
            Rationality? when all the science supports the lockdown and intervention strategy.

          • You need to quantify your axioms coming, sloganeering is bad faith argumentation and watery at best.

            Aside your most glaring error is to evoke rationality when you and others have put stakes in the ground before you even have adequate data to draw such stringent conclusions from. For example the currant kerfuffle about aerosols and droplets and how that effects strategies.

            Lest one forgets AID was ignored until the sacred people started getting it, so its a bit all over the shop when one looks at the source. BTW how come all the death and suicide associated with poverty is never on some lips, liberty, freedom, and rationally – ?????

          • Rationality is also an odd one when all the credible science and medical advice says lockdowns are the best strategy.

        • @coming Please quote the QoL studies you are referring to. Pretty sure QoL is good everywhere in Aus right now bar Melbourne, but come November Melbourne will be great too.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Some of the legal profession, sponsored by the Liberal Party, and a tiny portion of the medical profession. But hey, keep up the hyperbole.

    • I saw an open letter doing the rounds claiming medical professionals are against the current strategy. Notably a number of them were orthopaedic surgeons, the group where non essential electives had been cancelled impacting their income. Not sure they outrank epidemiologists in opinion in this mater, but hey medical professionals slam Dans lockdown is a great headline….

      • The only issue I have with that lot is ‘self interest’ i.e. they want to get back to making money. Multiple mortgages don’t pay themselves you know 😉

        (Otherwise I’m onboard!)

      • Did c0ming and his sister sign? (remember that there are over 125,000 registered medical practitioners in Australia so a petition by a hundred or so who are not specialists in epidemiology is about as representative of the medical profession as the views of the 57 MB shut-ins are of the broader community).

      • An anesthesist who works for a large public hospital in Melbourne told me that the only good thing about covid-19 is that fewer people are showing up in emergency. If they were able to get going on the backlog of elective surgery during lockdown they might have made some headway into the long waiting list.

        • RobotSenseiMEMBER

          It was discussed. Uncertainty over PPE stocks, drugs for sedating people, ventilators etc ultimately made it a non-starter.

    • poor conservatives. they saw a golden chance to let it rip across the whole country and have the state labor party be the convenient scapegoat. they squeeled and squeeled…but not today satan.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      What’s the alternative?

      The vic libs today were trying to wedge Dan on covid restrictions.. by using the 14 yr old autistic boy that went missing (now deceased) as political foil. Claimed that covid restrictions were stopping all the helpful public from going bush and helping to search. “shame on Dan Andrews” ect. That’s the alternative.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        You know what, even I didn’t think they would stoop that low so I went for a squizz. They did. They really did.

        These people are demented.

  10. Thought for the eve….

    From ‘Selling Students Short’ by Richard Hil, 2015 A&U

    On Law degrees

    and career degrees

    There are going to be quite a few hostile younger people about, is my guess. Rightly so.

    And the Liberals in power arent likely to do much to lessen that anger, and the ALP as we see it today might not be the place to look for succour either

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Same goes for Architecture, Computer Science and some Engineering disciplines. I know a young man that topped his Law degree and then had to spend last year working for free, as a legal aid volunteer, just to get enough ‘experience’ to land a paid job.
      He’s smart, capable and good with people (and a great tennis teammate), and he carries a deep, deep anger.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        If he was actually smart, he would have ingratiated himself with some debutante’s parent/guardian/custodian and been clerking his way into history as we speak. No property search penury for him then.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          It’s Melbourne Grammar and Xavier down here my good man.
          And no, he didn’t attend. Much tougher than it was 20 years ago.

    • Been like that for at least 20 years. What’s latin for ‘charge em all and let god sort them out’ – needs to fit on university crest though.

  11. gold’s coming under pressure again. I doubt anyone knows how things will play out tonight. I certainly have no clue.