Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

The selloffs continue here in Asia following the rout on European markets overnight, with the late fill on Wall Street not extending throughout the risk complex as USD firms. Gold is not holding on any longer, ready to break below the $1900USD per ounce level as it fails to regain above previous support:

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is selling off sharply again, down nearly 1.5% to 3273 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is off by nearly 1% to 23728 points. Japanese stock markets remained closed for yet another holiday while the USDJPY pair exhibits the first dead cat bounce, heading back towards the mid 104’s and still in selloff mode:

The ASX200 was the best in the region – only because it dropped the least – down 0.6% to 5784 points, now off by more than 14% for the year while the Australian dollar is breaking below its previous session lows, now below the 72 handle as USD firms going into tonight’s session:

Eurostoxx futures are playing catchup after the dreadful falls last night, up around 0.7% or so but S&P futures are down nearly 0.3% with the S&P500 four hourly chart looking like a classical dead cat bounce here as the 3300 point psychological level remains too far away::

The economic calendar is relatively quiet again tonight with US existing home sales data the only print of note.

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Comments

      • my original view was more falls for Tuesday but markets made some decent come back late in the session so not sure if that was caused by smart money or as per Chris’s comment BTFD crowd. If it was BTFD crowd then there are in for more pain tonight as I doubt too many of them would have had much money left to keep the pressure.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      I once witnessed my black Labor (Darcy) Fully consume a 1 to 2 kg dog turd (must have come out of a Great Dane or something).

      It was amazing how quickly he hoovered up the lot of it.

      I’ve never placed much faith in the wisdom of our Canine brothers and sisters since.

    • Well, one of three clear signs that Trump is not to be trusted is the fact he’s never had a dog….
      The other two being B.putting tomato sauce on a steak and C. cooking the steak WELL DONE….

      • I’ll give you B and C but on the fence with A: several studies say that cat owners are much brighter on average than dog owners (not that I’m suggesting Orange Man has a cat either).

      • to be fair (what? WHAT??) he’s probably not the only 74 year old who likes his steak well done. I think the dog point is a good one, however.

        • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

          His brother was an incorrigible alcoholic who drank himself to death – could put you off your beer.

          • As I get older every time I do dry July I think I could do it forever. Feel so much fresher now in my mid 40s than in my mid 20s when i was a functioning alcoholic until settling down!

  1. New Zealand … latest TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll …

    1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour drops, National flounders as minor parties lift … TVNZ

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-labour-drops-national-flounders-minor-parties-lift

    A decrease in support for Labour has seen a rise in minor party support, and while Labour could still govern alone, National continues to flounder. … VIEW & READ MORE via hyperlink above …

    • NEW ZEALAND: GOLDEN HOMES CANTERBURY NEW HOUSE AND LAND PACKAGE PRICING …

      CANTERBURY HOUSE AND LAND PACKAGES – GOLDEN HOMES

      https://www.goldenhomes.co.nz/house-and-land/canterbury

      What would the house and land packages prices be, if serviced Lots were priced at American levels … where the median is about $US 50,000 ?

      When can we expect to start on the path of proper Lot pricing (near rural raw land costs with infrastructure properly debt financed) with the Infrastructure Funding & Financing Act and associated political initiatives ?

      Check out the just updated website http://www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org .

      Watch what Urban Development Minister Phil Twyford has to say … and too … check out extensive further information.

      Expect Greater Christchurch and CAN DO CANTERBURY to continue leading the way !

    • I saw an immaculate Datsun ute in Coles carpark the other day — tiny compared to today’s beasts. ’80s I presume?

      Anyway, the old fella who was driving it was proud as can be as you would be with a vehicle that age, in showroom condition.

        • No it was in Brissy. Red it was – ‘Datsun’ on the rear was white. Beautiful example. Maybe a recent respray?

          I’ll have a yarn if I ever see him again. Love to see old cars that have been cherished

          • Ah ok, I bought a 240z off a guy named Vince he lives in Sydney’s Pleasure Point hah. But he’s looking to sell up. He has a really clean 80s era Datsun ute pickup. He dropped off a motor for me in it before I went back to Melbourne and we were talking about the old ute and how much attention it gets when he drives it around because it’s really clean. A lot of them had a hard life as work utes so pretty rare to find them in good original shape.

  2. Honestly the dog is probably the only thing that can really stump Trump in the debate. I’d bring the dog on and walk off stage and Trump will be left with someone who’s bark is worse than his…

  3. desmodromicMEMBER

    Tales from the road. Left Hughenden for Winton hoping for an update on road closures. No change. Winton was heaving with people. Queues for coffee and grey nomads everywhere. No option but to head to Longreach and wait on mates cattle property. On getting to Longreach informed that there was a possibility the SA/NSW would open tomorrow midnight. Change plans and going round the long way on the bitumen. This morning I was travelling SW and this afternoon E and S. So many people out and about that accommodation is limited and had to travel an extra 100 km to the next town. Now tucking into a pub meal at a establishment with questionable hygiene but great music. Queensland is a different country!

  4. If I read the ballot and saw Inspector Rex’s name on it I’d be very, very tempted to place a 1 next to his name. That was one incredibly smart pooch.

      • If people can believe that the earth is flat, that trickle down economics works, that [email protected] is real, that Covid-19 is just a flu, that Jordan Peterson is wise, and that Howard and Costello were food economic managers, then I can believe that Inspector Rex is real.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      A long, long time ago I wandered into a backpacker lounge and there’s Rex on the telly being watched by a couple of young German kiddies. Inspector Rex I exclaim. You know Inspector Rex? Of course I do, he’s awesome. Everybody in Australia watches it.

      I hope to this day that those now probably parents themselves kiddies still tell every squarehead they meet that Inspector Rex is required viewing in the much overrated land of Oz.

      • Not many realise that Rex had a penchant for chaos. For that reason he will give is first preference to Ren. Being and ideological fellow he is unable to support Stimpy, with him being a cat and all. Charlie the Wonderdog comes in at 3. Fourth is Belle. Not so much for her fine work with Sebastian, but because Rex loves ornate pop and thoughtful pop songs. Brain is the fifth preference. Rex is a bit intimidated by Penny so he can’t list brain higher. And, in a loving show of cross species support, he is also supporting Danger Mouse. Rex thinks DM is a bit of a loose canon yet acknowledges that his intentions are good.

  5. Just realised I posted this in the China Olympics page…… That’ll confuse some trolls!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8757763/Driver-busted-wheel-GOAT-lap-excuse-doesnt-100-fine.html

    So this guy gets pulled over by the cops and he’s got a goat in the car. Copper goes, mate, you cant drive round with a goat, take him to the petting zoo. I’ll let you off with a warning.

    Guy goes, will do officer, thank you.

    Next day at exactly the same place the copper catches the guy with the goat again, and says WTF, I said take the goat to the zoo!

    Guys goes, yeah I did mate. Now I’m takin him to the movies.

    • If I could find it I’d post the photo of us transporting our first two goats to our farm in the back of the Forrester. One of them jumped into the back seat and poked his head between us and spent the trip watching out the front window. Jeez they’re awesome creatures

      • Mike Herman TroutMEMBER

        Classic. I’m ignorant About these matters. Please tell me why goats swampy? P.s dees continue to be scared of the final 8. Bombers worse though…

    • It’s remotely possible that they’re talking their own book. What with being such trustworthy and ethical operations.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Translates as, ‘we have been let off the leash to lend to infinity’. Can’t really go wrong when you have been given the nod.

    • Did you watch Martin North’s live session with Chris Bates. I tend to be of the same view as him, quality assets to remain in high demand given the ultra low rate environment. Over supply crappy cookie cutter stock to get a walloping. Martin says it’s end up times and Chris is a bit more measured. I too wanted prices to get creamed 40%+ but I think Covid-19 has already destroyed certain segments and property types. The ones worth buying (family friendly homes in good burbs) are still in demand and selling and there is limited stock.

      So I’m not saying prices won’t fall, but my Irish experience was that the good parts of Dublin recovered pretty quickly where as the ghost estates and horrid apartments etc.. really got a beating and it destroyed the upward mobility of the property ladder for many. Sadly I see similar dynamics playing out here.

      • Saw about an hour until my internet froze. I agree with your take. I think there is enough wealth in oz, and good quality detached homes are now rare given all the knock down rebuilds over the years, that some types of properties will be fine. It’ll be interesting to see which properties and segments of ‘owners’ get destroyed given that we all know as much policy as possible will be thrown at the housing market by the gov, regulators and the banks. I think there will be a temporary move to the regions, but a lot of that will be pulled forward demand (people who were thinking of going regional anyway). It’ll be interesting to see how deep and real this trend is. I also think many people want to be within 2 hours of the city, so going regional has limits. There are so many moving parts and trying to forecast how they’ll interact in these strange times is almost impossible. I also think Chris is right about down sizers being wannabes, and that many will stay put for a long time. My early boomer parents are probably in this category, unless there is a major health issue. I can’t see them being happy in less space than their 2 acres, esp after having it as a divine refuge during this time. Anyway interesting times.

        • My in-laws are perfect example of downsizers. They have about 700 sqm in Upfield Vic. House is too big now kids have left home. Lawn is too much for father in law to manage. He is slow now he’s in his 70s.

          Their options would be to sell and move closer in, they want to be in Coburg because of nearby Church etc.. but to sell in Upfield and maybe get $550k. Then try and buy an apartment in Coburg for $550k is hard (nice Townhouse) plus strata etc.. and stamp duty / transfer costs are 10%. Both on aged pension. It’s gonna cost them $100k all up.

          Not really worth it. I said pay some kid to do the lawn for $20-$30 and just stay in the home. Moving doesn’t make sense.

          • Sound advice there. Yeah my olds decided to stay as long as possible several years ago and part of that included accepting that they would have to get in some help with various maintenance. Then during lockdown Dad has a few bad days with heart medication and I suddenly find out they think the place is too much for them and they might have to sell. What happened to getting people in? This place is neater than a pin and except for cutting down dead trees dad does everything himself. I swear it has to be the best maintained bush block in the whole area. Perfectionists and workaholics need to adjust their expectations and get with reality before making drastic decisions (something I’ve had to learn to deal with having CFS). Anyway Dad now might get a heart ablation done when elective surgery starts up again so he won’t need heart medication that makes him wonky.

  6. The justification for extending mortgage repayment holidays for an extra 12 months?
    Yeah, if we just wait another year we’ll be able to sell it for 15% more. Bill Evans said so.

  7. This bloke is absolutely mad and dangerous

    Someone needs to arrest him

    Hold off on calling for anyone to murder anyone please. For all your spam management queries contact [email protected]

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8758579/Daniel-Andrews-demands-extraordinary-new-law-let-government-officials-arrest-Victorians.html

    Victorians could be arrested and detained by public servants, union officials or anyone else the government authorises under an extraordinary new law that Premier Daniel Andrews wants to pass.

    The new law would allow the government to let protective services officers and WorkSafe inspectors enforce public health directions such as Melbourne’s 9pm curfew and strict gathering limits.

    The unprecedented plan would also allow officials to arrest people they suspect may spread coronavirus even if they have done nothing wrong.

    The Bill would expand the emergency powers to allow an authorised officer to detain:

    • any person that the authorised officer reasonably believes is likely to fail to comply with an emergency direction and is a close contact of a person diagnosed with COVID-19 (or a person diagnosed with COVID-19) not given clearance from self-isolation;

    • for so long as the authorised officer reasonably believes the person in detention is likely to fail to comply with an emergency direction.

    The Bill would also allow any person the Secretary considered appropriate to be authorised to exercise emergency powers. There would be no requirement that persons authorised be police officers, or even public servants.

    Authorising citizens to detain their fellow citizens on the basis of a belief that the detained person is unlikely to comply with emergency directions by the ‘authorised’ citizens is unprecedented, excessive and open to abuse.

    We call on the Legislative Council to amend the Bill, or to vote against it.

    • Calling for the assassination of elected officals may be a bridge too far even in a dystopian locked down Covid world. Give it a month and we will all be calling him a hero.

      • Can one do evil without being evil? This was the puzzling question that the philosopher Hannah Arendt grappled with when she reported for The New Yorker in 1961 on the war crimes trial of Adolph Eichmann, the Nazi operative responsible for organising the transportation of millions of Jews and others to various concentration camps in support of the Nazi’s Final Solution.

        Arendt found Eichmann an ordinary, rather bland, bureaucrat, who in her words, was ‘neither perverted nor sadistic’, but ‘terrifyingly normal’. He acted without any motive other than to diligently advance his career in the Nazi bureaucracy

        Instead, he performed evil deeds without evil intentions, a fact connected to his ‘thoughtlessness’, a disengagement from the reality of his evil acts. Eichmann ‘never realised what he was doing’ due to an ‘inability… to think from the standpoint of somebody else’. Lacking this particular cognitive ability, he ‘commit[ted] crimes under circumstances that made it well-nigh impossible for him to know or to feel that he [was] doing wrong’.

        Arendt dubbed these collective characteristics of Eichmann ‘the banality of evil’: he was not inherently evil, but merely shallow and clueless, a ‘joiner’, in the words of one contemporary interpreter of Arendt’s thesis: he was a man who drifted into the Nazi Party, in search of purpose and direction, not out of deep ideological belief.

        • Are you really Chelsea Clinton – ????? – because your use of Hannah Arendt is as bad as hers. She was publicly corrected and then insisted on foot chewing, even brought in an old prof from school to saver her, only to have his backside handed to him.

          • Hannah Arendt is the main game when it comes to the desirability of these proposed Victorian laws.
            Absolutely worth flogging.

          • I was unaware she had a twin.

            Do enlighten me on how you arrive at your conclusion presented without substance and please do search the episode I describe above, which IMO does a fine riposte of its miss application. Her detractor was Cory Robin if you need help.

            I agree with the cliche or slogan perspective of its use when bastardized as a cudgel. Coming has shown a propensity for bombast when his totalitarian knee jerk is triggered, the question posed is what motivated Eichmann to help organize the mass murder of the Jews?

            So it is incumbent on those that use such a reference too show how it is applicable in this specific case, considering, the actions proposed are to save lives vs killing them. On the other hand things get a bit darker when you consider comings views and the methodology used by say Eichmann’s crimes were not ones of personal or direct violence, but, the mentality they harbored and promoted caused the loss of life.

            The Meta … it burns …

    • In China, spreading COVID-19 is punishable by death. Victoria is not there yet, but it’s getting there.

      This is a lot like dealing with terrorism : on the one side you have a government demanding extraordinary power to ‘keep us safe’, on the other side you have deranged people spreading the virus because of ideology.

    • As a Queenslander I’m okay with it.

      Anything that prevents Victorians from travelling to the Sunny Coast between now and New Year sounds sensible policy.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        As a Victorian I’m OK with it, if it gets us through lockdown faster.

        Hannah Arendt was talking about a regime that killed millions of innocent people, not a Premier struggling with a hollowed out public service in the middle of a pandemic.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      You know protective services officers have extended powers on trains and work safe offices have extended powers in workplace accidents?

    • Original post reported to National Security Hotline. This cvnt’s for the watching. Don’t think he even lives in Victoria.

    • Are you talking about the cruise ships?

      Nah mate he’s a funny cnvt.

      Also the fight was an entire village of v!brants, on holiday.

  8. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Saw a pair of King Parrots 11km from the Melbourne CBD today, and a Peregrine Falcon on the weekend. Birds are loving the lockdown.