Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

CS: RBA QE priced into AUD

A late surge in stock buying, pushed by Chinese shares has seen most Asian share markets recover from earlier losses, while currency markets are again firming against USD going into the end of the trading week. Gold is bouncing back after breaking its short term symmetrical triangle pattern on the four hourly chart, coming back to just above the $1950USD per ounce level:

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is surging into the close, up over 2% to 3338 points on vaccine and belligerent nationalistic news (saber rattling in the Taiwan Strait) while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index has come back, but not as much – up 0.5% to 24463 points. Japanese stock markets have put in a weak finish as the stronger Yen continue to bite with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.1% higher at 23360 points. The USDJPY pair is looking to rollover again and break below the 104.50 level going into tonight’s trade as it continues its breakdown:

The ASX200 was the worst, although it started with a flourish, it eventually closed 0.3% lower at 5864 points while the Australian dollar is trying again to breakout above short term resistance at the 73.40 level:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are steady with the S&P500 four hourly chart attempting to form a bottom here at the 3320 to 3350 zone, with a possible swing uptrend play in order tonight, but there’s still major resistance at the 3420 point area to clear:

The economic calendar finishes the week with the closely watched Michigan sentiment survey, but more imposing is the witching hour expiration of many option contracts on lots of share markets, so we could see a big uptick in volatility.

Have a good weekend!

PS: 46 days til the US Presidential election.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

    • Virtually every Govt scheme ends up ‘picking’ winners and losers — there is nothing ‘fair’ about them. Just witness JK and record profits for many companies. Well intended but ill thought out, poorly executed and come with a host of negative unintended consequences. When you’re handling ‘other people’s money’, the results are inevitable.

      • Don’t get me wrong, I get it. It has been the same outcome with any form of government since we as humans got a form of government I suppose. Maybe even before that.

        Every form of government is based on an ideal, and it is broken and twisted quicker than you can imagine. Every form of government fails to take into account that humans are greedy and lazy, which distinguishes us from animals. At least animals stop when they are fed.

        Having studied economic models, I’m not sure anyone got it right, or even close, as they all tend to idealise the mass based on individual.

    • FB & Twitter have announced they won’t be announcing if Trump wins so you might miss election day. (Corporatocracy undermining Sovereignty?). You might hear about the civil war kicking off regardless of whichever paltry puppet flops over the line though.

  1. if we get one more negative session tonight I think we are in for more turbulence on Monday. How bad is it going to be it all depends how bad tonight DOW and NAS will behave.

  2. TheRedEconomistMEMBER

    Friendly Jordies 1 Babilaro 0

    Channel 9 reporting that Babilaro is taking 1 month leave for mental health.

  3. Interestingly I was informed today by an ex Dbl B driver that one of the reasons some international drivers are being used is due to the points not accumulating on their drivers licenses, in turn this speaks of the way such commercial licenses are gained in some countries. Per se 20 at a time on one vehicle which are given turns and then the whole bunch gains a license.

    Would someone please stop this Wh!te on Wh!te economic violence by proxy ….

      • You weren’t savaged and the issue is the exploitation not the international license. Don’t ruin it for everyone just because our current settings are all wrong.

    • I was thinking about this issue the other day – wondering if there might be a free market solution (as I have a tendency to do) – and it occurred to me that insurers (who tend to be the ones financially hurt by driver incompetence) may just refuse to insure foreign drivers (on a haulage firm’s policy), thereby necessitating higher premiums or a moratorium on the hiring of these dodgy drivers.

      • In the ‘free market’ the private sector shops around for the cheapest insurers via an insurance broker. It’s all about the sale, The underlying risk never comes into it. eg,. the salesperson gets the sale, the executive recognises the revenue, and then tells the bean counters to underprovision on it so they get their bonus. Whether the shareholders (who they’ve never met) money is at risk, well that never comes into it.
        And besides big insurers are too systematically important to fail. This has been understood since the 80s and was confirmed with AIG. You can’t have insured persons at risk of not receiving payouts because the insurer can’t pay. Think of the panic.
        So why bother assessing underlying risk. Make the sale, get the bonus, if it goes pear the shareholders and taxpayers will wear it.
        That’s the free market solution in private sector land.

        • A-ha. So please name the last insurer that got bailed out. You do realise that if an insurer gets bailed out the shareholder in the relevant company gets smoked? In other words there are real losses. Nothing you have said invalidates my point. The fact is, insurers are only going to tolerate paying out on deaths caused by Indians for so long before they throw in the towel and say: No more!

          • pretty sure I said *shareholders* and taxpayers will wear it.
            Problem with all your free market solution arguments is you equate the private sector with a libertarian textbook fantasy management who always acts in the best interest of shareholders, has ethics and can read their shareholders mind.
            Has it occurred to you that management doesn’t care if shareholders lose money over the long period because they don’t even know who they are?
            Do we need a RC into every single industry in the country before people cotton on to this?

          • Skip, I must inform you that AIG was insuring a lot of credit risk which put banks at risk (Golden Sacks, in particular). What I can tell you for a stonewall fact is that the AIG bailout was nothing more than a backhanded bank bailout, which was ostensibly all that mattered at the time. Insurers are generally not bailed out otherwise. Moral hazard.

        • “Has it occurred to you that management doesn’t care if shareholders lose money over the long period because they don’t even know who they are?”

          Sweep, I don’t know what you do for a living but it’s clearly nothing that equates with real life. Yes, owners GAF what happens at management level. Even instos had a gutful of this French fck who headed RIO and got him booted. You’re living in dreamland, buddy.

          And let me explain this in clear terms: anyone at the SME level is all over their management (if they’re not managing things themselves). The only people don’t understand this are the ticket-clipping wage slaves who have zero clue how the real world works.

          • funny. I look at your comments and immediately think.. anyone who holds these views can’t have any experience in large size corporates at management level. And applying what happens in an SME to a large corporation with 1000s of passive investors hidden behind nominees and fund managers, a professional board, with no controlling shareholder representation. That is deluded sorry.
            You are just deluded if you think management shares breakfast with their top 3 shareholders.

          • Sweep, I used to work in this business and management had breakfast, lunch and dinner with their top 5 or 6 shareholders on a regular basis. There’s only one person who’d deluded here.

        • “it’s not in the broker or management of the insurers interest to properly price the risk.”

          Earth to Sweep! The brokers don’t price risk – the insurers do. And, yes, it is in their interest (the insurers) to price risk properly, because if they don’t they’ll go bust!

        • “You are just deluded if you think management shares breakfast with their top 3 shareholders.”

          Oh, okay … maybe not here but everywhere else in the Western world they do – certainly the hedge fund managers do, and the bigger fish definitely do – which I know for a fact because part of my job was facilitating this BS. They like to know what the CEO has for breakfast – they have PI’s rummage through the trash.

          Your problem, sweep, is that you’re guided by your perception of the world rather than by what really happens.

          • That is what really happens.
            Management view their shareholders as a minor inconvenience to lie to once a year.

        • “That is what really happens.
          Management view their shareholders as a minor inconvenience to lie to once a year.”

          Oki doke. I’m an open-minded guy, what is your basis for this claim? Have you ever run your own business? If not (which I presume is the case) what do you actually do for a living? (so that I can vaguely reference where you’re coming from)

        • Really? So Linfox, Toll etc will not buy insurance?

          I’ll wager 99% of trucking companies in this country have a legitimate insurance policy.

          • It’s beside the point.
            it’s not in the broker or management of the insurers interest to properly price the risk.

      • It is already a free market solution. Clearly the money being made with faster delivery times is higher than the traffic infringements and other costs.

      • Would you please actually read both of Adam Smiths books before using the term – free markets – out of context Dominic. Its a extreme form of Agnotology on one hand and on the other indicative of the users ignorance, then some will moan about the public being dumbed down [tm].

        Oh and don’t count your limited anecdotal life experiences as evidence of something that has been unfolding since before you were born. Per se I have been in executive and board room meetings where screw jobs are openly discussed, along with observing the social psychological machinations which then reinforce these sort of views with in a group setting too include filtering down on the rest of the businesses employees.

        • skip, I know perfectly well what free markets are. And I know that whenever some clown says “free markets have failed” that the reason for the appearance of such an event is that there has been some or other Gummint intervention that has caused it.

          I’ve said this a hundred times so I may as well say it again: a free market is one in which every participant has a vote and no Govt intervention is present (direct or indirect). In other words, there aren’t too many genuinely free markets left in the world – certainly not the developed world.

          • Thank you for making my point as you have totally taken the author of the term out of context. What you describe is a complete bastardization of what he said and devoid of all nuance.

            Look if you can’t be bothered to read what the man wrote, in toto, then reconcile it with the history which surrounded it, don’t use dead men’s thoughts and deeds to promote a ideological agenda that they would never have supported. Worst yet their not even alive to refute the opportunistic and mercenary application of their property by those with alternative agendas.

            Then some Austrians wonder why others consider them intellectually wanting let alone corrupt E.g. a high ranking Austrian is a second rate neoclassical and a third rate neo Keynesian. Not to mention without funding from special interests could never hold their own in academia until it to became monetized.

          • skip, I know perfectly well what free markets are. And I know that whenever some clown says “free markets have failed” that the reason for the appearance of such an event is that there has been some or other Gummint intervention that has caused it.

            This is a religious statement.

            I’ve said this a hundred times so I may as well say it again: a free market is one in which every participant has a vote and no Govt intervention is present (direct or indirect). In other words, there aren’t too many genuinely free markets left in the world – certainly not the developed world.

            Name three.

            Heck, name one.

          • Frick drsmithy … no such thing existed in the old testament … a well spring for what Austrians drink from … know wonder they hate anything that takes away oxygen from their attempts to own the framework for debate and the methodology used to arrive at it.

          • Wheeee, fellas. No fckn clue as usual. Please comment on stuff you actually know something about – that is far more use to the community at large. Accuse me of being an ideologue. OMFG.

          • That’s pretty funny Dominic because how you feel about it is irrelevant when once you decided to join up, you then have “voluntarily” accepted everything that goes with this schools history as a servant to it.

            You might as well say here is my brain … fill it.

          • Frick drsmithy … no such thing existed in the old testament […]

            I didn’t say it was Christianity, I said it was religion.

          • Wheeee, fellas. No fckn clue as usual. Please comment on stuff you actually know something about – that is far more use to the community at large. Accuse me of being an ideologue. OMFG.

            Not even one, then.

            FMD. You are one of (quite possibly even THE) most ideological posters on this forum.
            “Corruption doesn’t exist without Government.”
            “You could run a country on a few sheets of paper worth of laws.”
            “Government cannot create productive jobs.”
            “Government’s only jobs are protecting property and the borders and enforcing contracts.”

          • Geez, smithy a dyed-in-the-wool ideologue accusing me of being … an ideologue.

            You should move to North Korea where the Gubmint will instruct you exactly what to do with every waking moment of your life – you’d be in Heaven. The amount of control they exert on people’s life is quite something — of course, it’s led to a magnificent economy, as you’d expect. I was going to suggest Cuba for you, but they’re probably a little too markets-orientated these days and would doubtless make you feel very uncomfortable 😉

          • The difference is I’m quoting things you’ve actually said, but you’re always just lining up a straw man army.

          • A-ha? Sounds like you’re backtracking.

            As you should. Stick to what you know – not what you think you know.

          • A-ha? Sounds like you’re backtracking.

            Not at all.

            As you should. Stick to what you know – not what you think you know.

            I know what you’ve explicitly said you believe, on multiple occasions. The quotes above are paraphrased, but they are not inaccurate.

            If that’s different to what you actually believe, well, I ain’t a mind-reader.

    • When living in Ireland I had my Australian licence for 6 years. It was great because if caught speeding I would not accumulate any points. But, I never got caught because unlike the Nanny state of NSW, Ireland had hardly any speed cameras.

      It was my insurance company that insisted I trade in my Aussie licence for an Irish 1. But, I left the country before they forced me to do it.

      • When I lived in the UK I owned a couple of fairly rapid vehicles (and occasionally stretched the proverbial legs, so to speak). I once blew past a mobile speed camera at 120 mph and thought farck!!! but never received a ticket. Then, travelling into London (the beautiful borough of Sidcup, no less), I rounded a bend (at a similar speed) and there waiting for me was a stationary speed camera (in a van). Hit the brakes hard, but it was fair cop at that point. Still no ticket in the mail!

        Arrived back in Straya. Had my first speeding fine (ever) within 5 months. 10km/ph over the limit. Have had a few more since. Nannycrat crazy.

          • but why complain about the nanny state if you are going to speed? They are just enforcing the laws in an efficient manner.
            Libertarians complain the state is inefficient, then it efficiently enforces it’s laws and suddenly it is a nanny state.
            If I speed I cop it. I don’t then whinge about the nanny state.

          • Laws are mostly created to rein in the excesses of the lowest common denominator. The fact is that most people can be relied upon to behave reasonably (a handful don’t) – laws against murder don’t prevent murder and laws against theft don’t prevent theft. They’re going to happen irrespective. So, in actual fact, laws are largely useless because the people likely to break them would break them anyway – but at least it grants a basis upon which to incarcerate them, which is great 😉

            As for motoring offences, I have a very good grasp of my personal driving abilities and the limitations of the vehicle I’m in control of — I generally don’t need a ‘one size fits all’ set of rules to dictate to me what’s appropriate and what’s not, but ya know, some brain dead nannycrat knows better than me 😉

          • Let me be clear here – if I’d been fined then, no problem. Did I not say it was a ‘a fair cop’ ?
            Maybe I didn’t … possibly my imagination.

          • Do you seriously think the speed limits imposed in yhr 1970s are relevant today? On the freeway you should be able to do at least 150km an hour. And anybody not moving back to the left over taking should be fined. But no lets stay in the dark ages. Speed doesn’t kill, bad roads do – look at the evidence from the UK. In such a vast country our road laws are a disgrace.

          • Probability of accidents isn’t primarily linked to driving ability.
            Speed disproportionately increases probability of accidents due to stoppage distance, reaction time etc. Ability to drive is one minor variable among hundreds when you are sharing roads with others in different conditions.

            This is what gets to me. If the state didn’t enforce it’s laws you would say it’s incompetent, inefficient, laws are pointless because people do the right thing due to personal responsibility etc. who needs a State.

            In reality, as you admit, people do the wrong thing, and the state efficiently enforces it laws..
            So whats the libertarians response… nanny state.. nanny state.

            Laws against theft don’t prevent theft.
            So assume there are no laws against theft. What prevents theft? Individual ethics?

          • Bloody hell. In other news. qty of cars on road do increase probability of accidents.
            No speed limits should not be reduced over time as more cars use the roads.

          • Mostly revenue raising. They hide out at edges of sleepy little towns where there is no danger at all if someone drives 5-10 klm over the limit. Then the low income earners fine is the equivalent of a week’s wage, and the Politician/woke green/PS don’t even notice it.

          • “Speed disproportionately increases probability of accidents due to stoppage distance, reaction time etc. Ability to drive is one minor variable among hundreds when you are sharing roads with others in different conditions.’

            In other news, the banning of all motor vehicles will eradicate motoring accidents. And so on …. but that’s okay, living in caves is under-rated. Life would be so much better (and safer!)

          • Fwiw I speed all the time when driving. I just do it in a very selective way. When it’s an open road or nobody is around or an area I don’t think I’m likely to encounter a cop or speed camera.

            But I did get done in April during first lockdown. Nobody on the road, in the Ringwood / Eastlink tunnel in the missus Mazda 3. Only car on the road. I got done for a whole 10km/h over the limit.

            I just wasn’t really thinking about my speed. It didn’t feel like I was being unsafe or reckless (wife was pregnant). Lucky for me I hadn’t recorded a fine in 15+ years so was given a warning instead. Rightly so mind you.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      I agree it’s really an awful situation, and the Indians are just so fckn useless at driving, you’d think some other exploitable import would be safer, I don’t know I blame anus bollox

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      It’s as if the last few series of ‘Rake’ were a documentary.

      You gotta wonder if Reus has organized relations parties at the ‘Farm’. Reus?

    • TheRedEconomistMEMBER

      That terrible they announce it at 5pm on Friday afternoon.

      Just to hide it from the Saturday Papers.

      There is a clear stench to this timing of this.

      Might be trying to set himself up for some NGO work later in life… as his AirBNB might not be habitable after Jordy spent a few nights there.

          • That was what my first thought was.

            I don’t know what I would do, in case of the 5% possibility it’s not bullshit.

          • That was what my first thought was.

            I don’t know what I would do, in case of the 5% possibility it’s not bullsh!t.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Harry, it’s Alan Bond and Christopher Skase all over again. Guys like Bruz play others over and over again.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Double down. None of ’em deserve sympathy. Remember how the traitor Andrew Robb used it for political advantage? Scumbags.

            Bruz must know what’s coming so is preparing the loopy defence.

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      Jesus, Friendlyjordie Farked this guy in all the right ways. What a spineless jellyfish MF. Burn with the Koalas Bruz

  4. Is This The Final Nail In Coal’s Coffin?

    “now that the nation’s Power Ministry has sought approval from the prime minister to cancel 13,000 megawatts of coal power.” Bangladesh’s pivot away from coal can be credited to ever more affordable new energy technologies and “increasing difficulties securing finance for coal projects.”

    It marks the end of an era for a major global industry, but it also marks a victory for clean energy

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Is-This-The-Final-Nail-In-The-Coals-Coffin.html

  5. Friday night schedule locked in:
    – Dan Murphy’s run
    – BBQ
    – Series of increasingly anti woke Macro arvo posts with rebukes from usual suspects
    – Tour de France
    – pass out on lounge/floor
    – do not wake up by midnight, do not post first in Weekend Links

  6. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Violence against the sitting American President. Reminds me of the Simpsons umbrella spear episode. Love it! You’ve outdone your hate tonight. Viva la Presidento!

    • How anti woke of you to point out the foregoing!

      Anyhoo, another great addition to society courtesy of Scummo/TurnBS/Ruddy/GillardCow/Coward mass migration. Total cost to Australia > $500,000. Total benefit to Australia NIL.

      GTFO you woke migration boosters.

    • ^^^ What he said
      Criticism of anybody from an ethnic group other than wh itey is verboten. Don’t you know this?

      Obviously, having them report the facts (that some of our imports are murderers) is not encouraged in this ‘woke’ era. It’s economic benefits for as far as the eye can see, where migrants are concerned. 😉

  7. almost forgot, on my walking patch just saw people moving out. Not sure if they were renting or not but will keep an eye to see what kind of sign pops up there.

    • May not be any sign at all.
      On my regular walking track there are a few places I know are empty( knew the previous tenants). Still empty, no sign.
      They are advertised online.
      There is a huge amount up for rent in 3185, and it’s usually pretty tight.
      Seven years ago I was sorting out my very demented parents in law, and parked them in a unit near us so I knew they were fed, clean etc.paid $550 per week. The unit has been given a refresh( new paint, new kitchen, laundry area etc).
      Now advertised for $430.

  8. These are the people who are at risk next year if we get a discrete second wave with a bad mutation, not the tidal surges we are experiencing at the moment in the first wave

    https://www.thecity.nyc/coronavirus/2020/9/15/21439062/long-haulers-struggle-with-covid-19-new-york-city

    That is when the big death toll came in the Spanish Flu and carried off al those weakened in the first year and weren’t even aware of their risk. India next year doesn’t bear thinking about

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-54176375

  9. Thoughts re newest outbreak in Melbourne:
    When you’ve got people who come from countries where the government is corrupt and exploitative, and you couple that with an out of control right wing libertarian journalism targeted to the ignorant which is constantly pushing this absurd fantasy that Australian governments and the public sector are incompetent and can’t be trusted – despite 170 years of evidence to the contrary – well that is a toxic combination for managing a pandemic.

  10. The Reds … who would have thought at the start of the season … wonder how a couple feel after refusing to take a pay cut with the rest of the team.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Wonder how much Rodda got to go to France?

      Anyhow, it would be well worth a pay cut to play under Brad Thorn.