Macro Afternoon

By in Australian Dollar, Australian Shares

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See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Markets are sliding into risk off mode today in Asia following the sour mood on Wall Street overnight with a sea of red on all bourses. Last night’s Federal Reserve meeting is still seeing USD firm against all the majors except risk proxy Yen which is surging post the BOJ meeting. Gold looks set to breakdown as it rejects very form resistance overhead at the $1970 level, falling back to trailing support on the four hourly chart, currently just below the $1950USD per ounce level:

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is the best in the region, but still down 0.4% to 3270 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is sharply off, down over 1.7% to 24288 points. Japanese stock markets are no longer holding as the stronger Yen bites with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.7% lower at 23319 points as the USDJPY pair breaksdown to another new weekly low (solid black horizontal line) well below the 105 handle:

The ASX200 was nearly the worst, eventually closing 1.2% lower at 5883 points while the Australian dollar fell back to four hourly support at just above the mid 72 level, making a new intraweek low:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are down 1% and falling fast with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing a key rejection of resistance at the 3420 point area, matching last week’s lows:

The economic calendar includes EU core inflation and US initial jobless claims.

PS: 47 days til the US Presidential election.

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Comments

  1. Code Error

    At this stage of the game it simply begs the question of whether it is the policy of the current Australian LNP government, headed by PM Scott Morrison, to completely trash the competitive basis of the Australian economy and to inflict lasting economic pain on all Australians.

    Further to that, if we think it was an ALP government (Gillard’s) which OK’d the Gladstone white elephant, and governments of both flavours which have looked the other way while Australian gas which once meant amongst the cheapest gas prices in the world for Sydney and Melbourne, and therefore cheap electricity, has become about the world’s most expensive – while both sides of politics try to nudge coal seam gas and fracking on a population all too aware of the environmental and health costs this entails – then the following question simply arise.

    Does Australia’s body politic – both mainstream sides including the Lberal Party, the National Party and the Australian Labor Party – have at its core an economic policy of completely trashing the competitive basis of the Australian economy and to inflict lasting economic pain on all Australians?

    Have Australian public sector data gathering, regulatory, and policy formulation organisations and departments been so corrupted that they do not identify the above? Have they been so neutered that they cannot report the above to Australian politicians?

    And at that point

    Are Australian political and public sector elites acting in the best interests of Australians? Are they accountable for acting in the interests and explaining their actions to Australians to a sufficient degree enabling Australians to feel that their politicians and senior policy makers are accountable to them? ….and if they are not, How can they be made more so?

    It is time for open revolt.

    I think it is time for a new political party which I would call putatively Bullshit Australia – the party to identify and deal with Australian Bullshit and to promote informed and data backed decisionmaking throughout the political and administrative bodies of Australia, and to hold politicians, public officials and corporate interests to account for past decisions made, starting with a permanent standing Australian Corruption Commission.

    Current Members
    Gunnamatta –(VIC)
    LSWCHP ( ACT)
    blacktwin997
    Forrest Gump (Secretary of the ‘No Bullshit’ wing of the Party)
    Bendy Wire – (WA)
    RobotSensei
    The Sling Shot Boys
    Haroldus (NSW)
    Ermington Plumbing (NSW)
    Anon
    Bolstrood
    Dominic
    China Plate
    Arthur Schopenhauer
    BCNICH
    Triage
    Mining Bogan
    Footsore
    Gavin (VIC)
    Tassie Tom (TAS)
    JS
    Niko
    Gavin
    Banana Man
    Yeborsky
    Macrofish
    Buzzy
    Geordie
    Totes BeWoke
    Gareth
    C3PO
    RaglanParade (VIC)
    Swampy
    Ukraine fn
    baddreams
    The Claw
    Popcod
    Cham
    Happy Valley (NSW)
    my torana
    drt15

    [Currently 41]

    I propose we aim initially – the next Federal election – at trying to get up 4 Senators from each state. I propose we get as far as we can up the nose of the current ‘elites’ by constipating their policy platforms in the Senate.
    I think/suspect we currently lack women…….

    Key Slogan
    ‘This is Bullshit!’
    Men and Women of Australia, Have you ever wondered about your energy costs ………‘This is Bullshit!’
    Do you wonder why your salary hasnt gone up in donkeys years? ‘This is Bullshit!’
    Do you work in a large organisation wondering why psychopaths inhabit the upper floors and you get stuck with meaningless KPIs? ‘This is Bullshit!’
    Do you worry about if your kids will get a decent education in a government school while ‘elite’ private schools get more funding from all levels of government than your kids school does? ‘This is Bullshit!’
    Do you wonder why your governments keep banging on about immigration needed for skills shortages when kids with Master degrees are joining the military as base grade grunts because there is nothing else for them to get into? ‘This is Bullshit!’
    Do you wonder why Australia, the worlds largest gas exporter has the worlds most expensive gas in Sydney and Melbourne? ‘This is Bullshit!’
    Do you wonder why foreign nationals traipsed on in and laundered money through Australian real estate so your kids need to move to Campbelltown to be able to afford a house, and hack out a 2 hour commute to a peanut paying gig every day? ‘This is Bullshit!’

    Every time a mainstream politicians opens his mouth (or her mouth) in the public domain, just point out ‘This is Bullshit!’

    Draft Policy Platform – for discussion/arguing about/ data provision
    I propose that the Bullshit Australia and the Macrobusiness cognoscenti run a full campaign in the upcoming election to get ourselves elected as the swing players, running on a platform revolving around (with negotiations/debate/argy bargy) the below…….

    – which would at least offer some sort of genuine left and data backed – and openly transparent – presence in parliament

    Policy Positions

    Constitution

    · Enshrine Medicare into Constitution

    · Enshrine ABC funding into Constitution

    · Enshrine Australian Bureau of Statistics funding into Constitution

    · Enshrine political party funding transparency into Constitution

    · Enshrine freedom from foreign influence legislation into constitution

    · Enshrine requirement for all candidates for every election in Australia to be approved by AEC prior to standing for parliament

    · Enshrine a National Crime & Corruption Commission into Constitution and give it investigatory powers.

    Taxation

    · End negative gearing

    · End capital gains tax dispensation

    · End health insurance rebate

    · Implement Federal Land tax

    · Remove PAYE taxation for those earning under 55K (but retain/create Medicare (4%), Defence (2%), ABS (1%) and ABC (1%) levy

    · Inclusion of family home in determination of access to the aged pension where the home is worth more than 500k.

    · Development and maintenance of publicly available database on Australian taxpayers [companies & individuals]

    Economic and Monetary Policy

    · Reinclusion of employee and community representatives on RBA Board.

    · Requirement for RBA to report quarterly to Parliament on monetary policy in relation to wages and housing costs

    · Requirement for RBA to report quarterly to Parliament on the effective use of taxpayers funds in relation to support for Australian banks and financial system entities.

    · Requirement for RBA, Treasury, and other government agencies (including ABS) to develop standards and monitor quality of life issues being faced by Australians (both on average and by decile) and report on how policies being adopted by them influence a range of demographics

    · Mandate the creation of new entity to be called the Australian personal public and corporate debt commission to produce analysis on the debt, indebtitude and debt servicing of Australians and Australian entities This organisation is to have representatives of the RBA, Treasury, State governments, local governments, retail banks and community organisations at a board level.

    · Requirement for RBA to report quarterly to Parliament on money creation and the beneficiaries of money creation over the preceding quarter and year, and forecast such into the future.

    Housing

    · Commence federal government building housing

    · Implement competitive GST Bonus payable to states which do best on housing affordability and housing creation

    · Enshrine right to housing into Constitution

    · Enshrine a National Probity and Veracity test for all funds used for housing purchases.

    Urban Design and Construction
    · Establish a set of national standards for residential design and construction. Enforce these standards with criminal penalties.
    · Establish ‘Plot Ratios’ in the state planning systems to ensure adequate green space on residential blocks.
    · Establish a national policy to harvest storm water for urban parks and open spaces.
    · Establish access to natural light as a property right.
    · Re-establish the professional registration of building related engineering services.
    · Outlaw private building surveyors and re-establish the system of Municipal Councils administering building standards.

    Politicians

    · Mandate real time visibility of politicians allowances and outlays

    · Mandate Housing affordability requirement for all politicians to reaffirm whenever they propose legislation

    · Audit all payments to or on behalf of politicians

    · Mandate funding transparency for all levels of Australian government (Federal State and Local), and a donations and gifts declaration requirement for all persons above a particular level (about SOG C in APS) in all public services of budget funded organisations (including Universities)

    · Mandate rate of politicians salary at 2, 3 , or 4 times average full time earnings.

    · Mandate access to politicians super is only accessible by vote of the seat which politician represented each 5 years at rate of 25% 50% 75% or 100% of standard politician rate.

    · Mandate all politicians and all political aspirants seek and gain clearance from Australian Electoral Commission on suitability for office regarding S144 of the Constitution & fiscal relationships with the Australian Taxpayer

    Industrial Relations

    · Reintroduction of the Australian Industrial relations Commission with powers to intervene in cases of Award and Agreement transgression – whether brought before it by parties or now.

    · Additional role for revived AIRC will be to oversee employee superannuation payments, their payment by employers, and the effective deployment of these funds as regards to the interests of employees (and with a view to minimising longer term budget and pension impacts on government outlays).

    · Additional role for revived AIRC to oversee use of contractors, contracting arrangements, and corporate entities to ensure employees are appropriately addressed for entitlements.

    Energy

    · Mandate gas reservation policy to ensure globally cheap electricity and gas.

    · Mandate solar panels and hot water on all new dwelling construction

    · Mandate tax deductability of residential and corporate solar battery investment

    Defence

    · Enshrine right to lifetime medical care for all Australians who have served in the military more than 7 years

    · Mandate immigration rights (for individuals and families) for those foreign nationals agreeing to serve 10 years in ADF

    · Mandate that no deployment of more than 200 ADF personnel to any particular offshore location or theatre of operations can occur without debate and vote in joint sitting of parliament.

    Education

    · Remove student visas from right to residence and housing purchase

    · Remove student fees from first degree in science, mathematics, finance, medicine

    · Increase training of medical practitioners and access to medical degrees

    · Remove all public funding for non government schools

    Immigration

    · Mandate economic diversity criteria

    · Mandate country of origin criteria so that applicants of no nation comprise more than 10% of the total immigration intake in any one year.

    · Enshrine 70k NOM per annum as Immigration base, with priority to refugees and families

    · Allow NOM above 70k per year only where economic diversity, debt, education, housing affordability, intergenerational quality of life and employment conditions are being met.

    · Allow temporary visas in circumstances (eg academic world, some science) where globalised workforce would expect it.

    · End temporary work visas unless companies can demonstrate they have made attempt to develop their own skills in their own workplaces, or made genuine attempt to source skills within Australia.

    · End Special Investor Visas (except where entity is contributing to export or import competing business in Australia employing more than 10 Australian employees)

    Free Trade Agreements

    · Mandate audit of all Free Trade Agreements entered into prior to signature and ratification by Australian parliament

    · Have productivity commission audit all extant FTAs Australia is signatory to

    Foreign Policy
    Foreign Aid with a focus on:
    – The Pacific
    – Supporting nations on the frontline of refugee crises to make safe camps there with the hope they can return.
    – Empowering women in developing countries to make decisions on family size.

    Public Service

    · Commence regionalisation policy for major APS agencies

    · National audit of all APS outsourcing since 2000

    · Mandate that no company identified to shift profits offshore can receive government contract (onus is on company to prove and gain certification from ATO)

    · Mandate that all contracted services in Australian public sector are audited and re[ported on to parliament for effective use of public monies, and with all transition costs (including relocations and redundancies) included in that consideration.

    · Mandate that selection for all Senior Executive Service Positions in the Australian Public Service be subject to approval of APS Probity Commission

    · Mandate creation of Evaluator General for all public policy proposals

    · Mandate all policy that can be based on empirical evidence should be so based
    · Mandate any policy that is intended as an interim measure have a review date and terms of review attached to it, and
    · Mandate that all policy Have a clear plan for the future of the nation at a federal and state level, so policy has a long term rather than short term vision

    Social Welfare

    · Make unemployment the same as study assistance

    · Re Establish Commonwealth Employment Service

    · Mandate requirement for all calls to all social welfare services be monitored, and answered within 10 minutes

    Internet Data

    · Mandate that all Australians own the data collected on them

    Royal Commissions

    · Royal Commission into the Tertiary Education Sector and Links to Foreign States

    · Royal Commission into Private Indebtedness

    · Royal Commission into the Funding of Australian Politicians

    · Royal Commission into Housing Affordability

    · Royal Commission into the advent of COVID 19 – its Origins, entrance to Australia, and effects on the Australian Public

    · Royal Commission into the value for the Australian people & Impact on budget of Australian Public Sector Outsourcing and the Embedding of Private Sector Providers into Australian Public Sector Service Provision

    · Royal Commission into Housing Affordability

    • footsore

      I think that to keep things simple for we simple shut-ins that all candidates change their name to their login. footsore isn’t the best but it’s not really worse than my parent’s attempt at naming me.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      A few more policy ideas Gunna:

      Urban Design and Construction
      – Establish a set of national standards for residential design and construction. Enforce these standards with criminal penalties.
      – Establish ‘Plot Ratios’ in the state planning systems to ensure adequate green space on residential blocks.
      – Create a national storm water harvesting fund for watering urban parks and open spaces.
      – Add ‘access to direct natural light’ as a property right in Australian Law.
      – Re-establish the professional registration of building related engineering services.
      – Outlaw private building surveyors and re-establish the system of Municipal Councils administering building standards.

      [Edit: Gunna’s covered it]
      Political Donations
      Political parties are restricted to donations of $2 per Australian citizen.
      All other donations are outlawed.
      State and Federal Ministers cannot accept employment, paid or in kind, for five years after leaving office.

    • The Sling Shot Boys

      Gunna, major issue is that the public do not yet consider they are in any difficulty at all.
      Then, the economic difficulties which will prevail and mature, will cause massive social upheval and a full re-setting of the nation.
      Einstein once noted that he could not describe a war fought with nuclear weapons
      But he assured that the war after that, would be fought with sticks and stones.
      What has happened here with the failure of the social system, (remember the punters elected the govt) and the failure of the economy, remember the punters endorsed the housing ponzi
      franking credits and the govt policy of ensuring that illusory and fallacious system prevailed
      and the economy, where money is being swallowed up by voracious boondoggles as fast as it is helicoptered, will be afffected by the gravity of normal behaviour, and burn up as a meteorite, or atomic catastrophe.
      This whole nation is on the path once set out by the failure of marvellous Melbourne, the Paris of the south, for a total collapse.
      Re-arranging deck chairs at this stage is wasted effort.
      Working on the proven strategy, there is no problem so large that you cant even start to run away from it, a derivation of the Kenny Rogers quartet of rules, to a safe haven, where you have safely squirrelled away your resources and assets, I say the best outcome.
      What occurs in the near future will seek to remind all of the real nature of human mischievousness.
      As Eisenhower advised, get all this recorded, on film, cos some time in the future some will propose that it did not occur.
      History rhymes and repeats.

    • Michael Goddard

      Get rid of the refugee stuff. We can help people much more by taking the welfare we would have paid them and their progeny in Australia and spending it on education, contraception, abortion for women in the 3rd world. Overpopulation being the fundamental driver of refugee outflows.

    • GeordieMEMBER

      You need to add the following:
      – All policy that can be based on empirical evidence should be so based
      – Any policy that is intended as an interim measure have a review date and terms of review attached to it, and
      – Have a clear plan for the future of the nation at a federal and state level, so policy has a long term rather than short term vision

        • GeordieMEMBER

          Under Energy, add something like “Utilise off-the-shelf and distributed bulk power storage, such as pumped hydro, to stabilise both renewable based power networks and energy costs.”

        • drt15MEMBER

          Count me in.
          Needs an environmental policy:
          – end to land clearing
          – end to clear felling native forest
          – incentives and education for young farmers, regen farming, land restoration, re-afforestation and revegetation
          – end to water licences for cotton etc
          – a Royal Commission into the Murray Darling

    • RyanMEMBER

      Foreign Aid with a focus on:
      – The Pacific
      – Supporting nations on the frontline of refugee crises to make safe camps there with the hope they can return.
      – Empowering women in developing countries to make decisions on family size.

    • GeordieMEMBER

      I should also add that we’d probably get a great number of votes purely because many people would just put a 1 next to “Bullshit” just for shits and giggles.

    • GarethMEMBER

      Count me in – happy to take an active front line or advisory role within agriculture and environment (yes the 2 should be linked). Lots of practical wins available in this area which would resonate with most.

    • C3POMEMBER

      Count me in too please (unless you have certain standards to maintain – for transparency I currently work in the FIRE sector)

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Just about everybody outside Mining and Food works for the FIRE sector! (Once or twice removed.) Who pays the private school fees? The FIRE sector. What are have Universities become? An extension of the FIRE sector. Etc, etc…

    • baddreams

      If you want to base policy on what works, it is good to know what actually works, ensure that what you implement does work and incorporate the lessons into future policy.

      I think an Evaluator General model would make sense. Similar to the way Audit Offices work in relation to keeping government”s accountable in relation to program administration/ development etc. Otherwise are you just going to continue getting in a hired gun from a big 4 firm/ consultancy hired by the Department that developed the policy itself…

      https://theconversation.com/labors-idea-of-an-evaluator-general-could-dramatically-cut-wasteful-spending-115840

      You should include your proposal to reestablish the Commonwealth Employment Agency.

      It would be interesting to see reasoning behind regionalising Government departments, if this means moving them out of Canberra. As has been said by this site, one of the only successful decentralisations in Australia.

      I would prefer if Governments re entered (or entered in a greater capacity) actual service provision in areas like aged care, disability care, social service provision. Seems like knowledge, feedback and accountability are lost when there is only contract management involved. Regulators would also be worth a look.

      Also no love for the means testing the aged pension against property. A home is more than an asset. It is a link to the community, a place that you raised your family in and where you feel safe and secure. What about the working class people who have their homes in inner suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne that have increased in market value that would not be entitled to an aged pension? This despite having contributed to their local community and to the taxation system during their lives and in turn being deserving recipients of support from the community they built. Might also be nice for people to inherit a house in the areas they grew up in…

    • The Claw

      Count me in – as the Housing Minister.

      Add to your list:

      * bill of rights. Right to free speech. Right to open trial, innocent until proven guilty, etc
      * public servants and politicians restricted from working in private sector after their public career. The exception is for a normal paid job.
      * reform doctor licensing rorts
      * reform family trust rorts
      * citizen instigated referendums
      * online voting for certain matters – not general election
      * introduce a proper Australian ID based on passport. Passports to be a free service from govt to Australian citizens.

    • Swampy

      Csiro funding
      Dental added to Medicare
      Indigenous recognition in constitution, pathway to treaty

      Man what you could with health!

    • ChamMEMBER

      Count me in. Keen to work on ways to attract more capital for small businesses and start ups. Universities to focus on partnering with industry to commercialise research, make money from spinoffs and patents. Get rid of the parasitic international student model of degree factories and focus on creation of new industries and companies. idealistic perhaps but it’s what this country needs if we have any hope of maintaining and growing living standards in a meaningful way.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Add to your existing lists:

      Taxation:
      – End “refunds’ for excess franking credits to zero taxpayers (eg SMSFs in pension phase).

      Defence:
      – Appoint an inquiry headed by a judge to examine the status and cost of all material existing defence equipment procurement projects (eg the F-35 JSFs, the submarines etc etc etc).

      Politicians:
      – Ban former politicians from taking for 5 years, any role in the private or public sector in an area in which they had ministerial or parliamentary or shadow roles or a committee role.

      Public service:

      – Establish a federal ICAC of substance to investigate all potential corrupt and illegal conduct by politicians and bureaucrats.
      – Require all ambassadorial and similar posts to be filled by career bureaucrats unless it can be proved by open inqiury that a politician or other person is suitable to be considered for the post.

      Royal Commissions:

      Royal Commission in to the Financial Services Industry to be reconvened and be given a decent length of tenure (eg 3 years), rather than the “mini me” but devastatingly revealing Commission set up by Turnbull (with the “blessing” of the industry) and objected to ~26 times by ScoMo before its belated establishment

      Royal Commission in the Robodebt debacle.

      Royal Commission in to the status etc of Defence Procurement Contracts.

    • LSWCHPMEMBER

      Sounds good to me.

      Proud to be party member number 2, or something at least for the moment.

      As a first step I’m sure we can get to the necessary 500 names without too much trouble by the looks of things.

      This is quite exciting. Thanks for lighting the fire Gunna.

      Rest of the party…Onya! Solidarity, brothers and sisters!!

    • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

      I’d love to be able to support and join your party Gunna, but enshrihing funding for the ABC throws up a barrier I cant cross. That organisation is so far progressive left, so damaging to intelligent public discourse, its beyond reform. It would need to be cut lose if you achieved power and to find another way to establish an independent quality newsflow for Australians that breaks the brainwashing by all public and corpoate media. Find a new model by funding podcasts, radio, town hall debates, alternative mefia, public buyout of MB or whatever that both educates and creates a platform to encourage ordinary people to engage in quality political and economic debate, including on the ideas you promote in your platform.

      Be ideaology free. Leave out all semblance of left or right dogma in your platform that just divides and distracts and focus on finding pragmatic answers to Australias problems.

      You also should pick up on Phfftt’s ideas on MyRBA, the public holding secure accounts at rba and a first step of moving away from the private banking debt based monetary system we have. The single reform that could get you elected and make it all worthwhile.

      You should add to your Royal Commission list of reviews, a Constitutional convention where we explore getting rid of the states and their local governments and replace them with regional Councils under a Federal govt, 2 levels only. So we truely have a single country, with the states showing themselves now as threatening the federation and past their use by date. (you might have to keep the Rugby League State of Origin – all politicians learn to compromise!)

      And just on tax, a maximum 30% personal, 30% capital gain, 30% business tax enshrined in the constitution. Govt can reduce those levels for low income or for small business or whatever they want but cant go over as we recognise that thats enough of a direct burden to carry. No fudging at the edges with levies. Medicare or other has to be cartied in the 30%.

      One more, make voting optional for under 25year olds. Retain compulsory 25 and over. Lets lift the wisdom of the crowd whilst keeping the centrist focus that compulsory voting brings.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Install blasphemy as a right.

      Also I can help with data reporting.

      Databases will need to be set up. I think we have enough nerds in MB to cover this. Who are the database security freaks?

      This is a pretty major issue actually. I have to sign many confidentially agreements at my work.

    • my torana

      That’s right, count me, second woman. And there’s Kelly, Glenda, Janet, kiwikaryn, MD, is billygoat in this list, or am I thinking of glam/lamb? And mystic, to name a few.

      You don’t really need to decentralise the public service btw. It’s already well spread across Australia despite national party claims and it’s actually more effective to have the hqs centralised.

      • Gunnamatta

        You are in, I completely agree we need more women.

        I (personally) think the APS needs more decentralisation so as to place more decent jobs outside the ACT as Australia experiences a major economic rough patch – but all that policy position is up ‘for discussion’

        • bolstrood

          Peoples assemblies, drawn by lot, operating below the parliament level , but repoting to the Parliament.
          Climate Change
          Aborigional Voice
          Environment
          immigration

    • Roger Torp

      The ABC fights against most of your policies. Seems strange that you would enshrine their funding into your constitution.

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      I like the cut of your jib, Gunna.

      Some suggestions:

      Taxation
      Maybe make an explicit point around the purposes of taxation being to drive economic and social policy – (re-)distribution/investment of wealth (with a preference that people make those decisions themselves) ? Ie: we levy income/wealth taxes to encourage productive investment and discourage unproductive accumulation, we levy sin taxes to discourage harmful behaviour, we provide tax deductions/breaks to encourage good behaviour.

      Remove PAYE taxation for those earning under 55K (but retain/create Medicare (4%), Defence (2%), ABS (1%) and ABC (1%) levy

      I don’t really see the point of special levies.

      How about this instead:
      * Tax-free threshold is set at the median income (adjusted each year based on previous year’s tax returns).
      * Tax brackets defined as based off income percentile or multiples of the median income rather than fixed $ figures. Eg: set marginal tax rates based on whether your income falls in the top 0.01%, 0.1%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 25%, or at 2x, 5x, 10x, 25x, 50x, 100x median income.
      * Taxes should start to get punishingly high past about 25-50x median (per above the objective here is to get really high income earners to do something more productive with their money than have it taxed).
      * A wealth tax (modelled after the Swiss)
      * Death/estate taxes, but per Damien’s (?) suggestion the other day, come at it from the angle of a maximum allowance for recipients after which it is taxed as income. Again, the objective here is to incentivise distribution of wealth/money rather than having it taxed – ie: if you’re going to die a squillionaire, distribute your wealth how you see fit to relatives, charities, etc or it will be brutally taxed. Care needs to be taken with the PPoR (per next point), farmers, small business owners.

      Inclusion of family home in determination of access to the aged pension where the home is worth more than 500k.

      I disagree with this to a degree. Lots of people will have ended up with huge paper growth in wealth through the property bubble but haven’t benefitted in real terms from that – so they shouldn’t be punished.

      That said, if someone is sitting on a massively valuable (10s of $millions) house… So I guess my caution here is more around the threshold amount ($500k seems low) than the principle of the issue. I actually think most of these threshold amounts (eg: for the estate tax above as well) should be fairly generous – the problem is the massively dynastically wealthy, not the upper end of the middle classes leaving their children a house worth a couple of million.

      How about:
      * Leveraging increases in property value (eg: re-mortgaging at a larger amount) trigger a CGT event.
      * Retain the PPoR CGT exemption but only for people moving from one PPoR to another (maybe allow a 12 month grace period to buy a new PPoR).

      Development and maintenance of publicly available database on Australian taxpayers [companies & individuals]

      Could go down the radical transparency path of Norway (I think it is), where everybody’s tax returns are publicly available. 🙂

      Mandate rate of politicians salary at 2, 3 , or 4 times average full time earnings.

      I actually think ALL PS wages/wage brackets should be calculated as a multiplier of the base social security payment. The multipliers should be relatively hard to change (especially for politicians), but the base payment should be much easier (and indexed to inflation (or maybe median wage?) at a minimum).

      Immigration
      Allow temporary visas in circumstances (eg academic world, some science) where globalised workforce would expect it.

      I assume this is to address skilled immigration ?

      I’ve always said setting (and policing/maintaing) the requirements for skilled immigration sufficiently high would fix most of the problems here. Eg:
      * Minimum Master’s Degree in directly relevant field (academic sector) or 10 years of directly relevant work experience.
      * Must have a job offer to apply for a visa
      * Minimum salary for skilled immigrants should be something like 2x national median income or 1.5x median income within the industry sector, whichever is highest.

      Politicians / Social welfare
      * Make Centrelink the administrative point of politician pensions and associated lifetime perks, with no “special caller” lines or exemptions.
      * Introduce a job guarantee. Provide specific additional support around transport and accommodation to people prepared to relocate to follow seasonal rural work.
      * Simplify and reduce means-testing and “mutual obligation”.

      Education
      * Expand the publicly-funded school system to include childcare.

      Constitution / Electoral reform
      I feel like these should be doable without fundamentally redesigning the system ?
      * Recall elections (eg: get X number of signatures from the electorate and trigger a by-election.)
      * Citizen-initiated legislation (eg: get X number of signatures across the country to force legislation into consideration)
      The trick here is making X high enough to discourage stupidity but low enough to be feasible.

      Reform political donations
      * Allow donations from registered voters only.
      * Overt “volunteer” time (eg: doorknocking, creating campaign materials, etc) counts as a “donation” at hours * minimum wage (additional allowances for people who are time-rich – eg: retirees, part-time workers, unemployed, etc)
      * Max annual donation limit per person equivalent to 4 weeks @ minimum wage (so about $3k)
      * Donations must be processed through a centralised system with real-time disclosure. Donors are publicly anonymous.
      * Deliberate attempts to circumvent limits by donors should be subject to crushing fines. Mandatory gaol time for repeat offenses or attempts using co-ordination or coercion (eg: someone giving a group of others money to donate).
      * Deliberate attempts to circumvent limits by politicians should be subject to mandatory gaol time and loss of pension.

      • Gunnamatta

        Sorry I didnt see all that yesterday DrSmithy. I quite like the vast bulk of it. Should all be considered (at least)

  3. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    PERFORMANCE URBAN PLANNING WEBSITE UPDATE … SEPTEMBER 2020 … http://www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org

    THE MASSIVE (COVID 19 ACCELERATED) URBAN TRENDS OF DECENTRALIZATION AND DISPERSAL

    This deliberately delayed 2020 Update until a month or so prior to the New Zealand General Election, is, of necessity , considerably larger than usual.

    There is just so much ‘happening’ !

    Readers hopefully will get a sense of some of the overwhelming multitude of forces (including Covid 19) driving the inevitable quest for more affordable and convenient urban decentralization and dispersal.

    These forces of progress are unstoppable.

    It is suggested readers make a point of watching the three videos of New Zealand Urban Development Minister Phil Twyford’s addresses … first, a 2 1/2 minute Facebook presentation … and second, his outstanding 1st and 3rd Reading speeches during the processing through the New Zealand Parliament of the Infrastructure Funding and Financing Bill … now Act … with the associate political initiatives as well.

    The major sobering lesson here is that the buying public ‘plan’ our cities.

    The best their servants … the politicians , urban planners, broad media, industry providers and others can do, is respond positively and with respect to the buying public wants and needs.

    Check out the Westpac Bank New Zealand and Australian Housing Preference Surveys and the IPSOS New Zealand Issues Monitors.

    New Zealand Urban Development Minister Phil Twyford, with his Labour – led Coalition government are leading the way.

    Minister Twyford with his government achieved the support of all political parties within the Parliament with the Infrastructure Funding and Financing Act.

    A remarkable political feat … which makes me very proud as a New Zealander.

    • Wiley Wolf

      HP, dissappointing to blow your bubble, but fair suck of the kumera
      you guys are in the deepest do do since k1w1 records were kept
      gdp dropped 12.6% holy mackerel
      and come march 6 next year, you lose that, you may as well move back to the Kaimai’s

  4. Niko

    ok, maybe I am out by 1 day but my weekly prediction may still play out. US initial jobless claims will play big role on how things play out.

    • Matchbox

      Was going to go big short today but thats the one thing that stopped me.
      Might wait one more day and see where it lands.

      • Niko

        JPM and the likes only need to sell tonight and tomorrow night and will wipe out all retail options traders. I suspect these institutions wrote all those naked options contracts and they had them covered ~50% so they hold enough stock to sell for two sessions and destroy the option holders.
        On top of it Monday comes these retail investors will be facing margin calls and be forced to sell their shares at discount and continue selling into Tuesday possibly Wednesday too.
        If I am reading these moon spots right that is.

          • Niko

            mate I am serious about this. Large institutions have once in 100 years opportunity to make a killing in just two sessions. From what I understand is 2/3 of all options trades are now retail and 75% of that retail is short dated options that expire in 2 weeks. This Friday is the expiry date of large number of those options as is the quarterly period.
            Huge % of these options were written by institutions like JPM and are naked contracts. This caused many institutions to buy into those stocks in order to cover their risks (to a point as no one bought 100%). Last 2 weeks markets are down which means many option holders are out of the money and without strong rally tonight and/or tomorrow night they will lose everything. But some are close to be in the money and some are in the money. If markets fall tonight and tomorrow night all option writers will make a killing as all (most) option holders will be wiped out.
            This is not new but what makes it so interesting is the shear size of the options on issue due to the retail jumping into the market and kept piling. Since institutions hold many of the shares they had to buy in order to cover their exposure, all they need to do is to start dumping these shares today and tomorrow.
            And buy them back at 30% discount between Mon and Wed.
            If I am reading this thing correctly that is.

          • Wiley Wolf

            Being serious, emotionally attached, is one thing
            backing your scheme with your money is another
            Dont tell us, pile in and make a fortune your self.
            There are any number of advisers around who dont have the courage to back their recommendations.
            Set your self free.

          • Niko

            too late.. I did not buy BBUS or something else to short the market. Just thought of the scenario that could possible play out but only thought of doing something about this arvo when futures were already -400.

  8. Totes BeWoke

    “Enshrine 70k NOM per annum as Immigration base, with priority to refugees and families”

    99% of Australians would vote against up to 70k refugees a year. Define the number.

  9. Totes BeWoke

    Gunna

    I’m in if you’ll have me…NSW,…. and I’d work hard for the cause (for free)…but I do think a bit of refining of policy is needed.

  10. happy valleyMEMBER

    Well, the greatest orgasm ever is just around the corner for Strayan private banksters. The RBNZ has apparently asked the NZ banks (read: Strayan) as to whether their systems are ready for an imminent negative cash rate, across the ditch.

    Life for Strayan banksters will just get so much easier when the RBA follows suit in to a negative cash rate (as irrelevant as the cash rate has always been to the setting of mortgage rates) – banksters charging depositors for the privilege of them keeping their money with the banks, so that the banksters in turn can lend it out and lose some of it for them.

  11. Totes BeWoke

    Gunna

    What about a policy that audits the wealth and source of wealth of all today’s politicians?

    What about a complete ban on post politics board seats, or positions based on reward, or influence and power?

    • Swampy

      Seconded
      Enforcement of time between public service and related positions cough Andrew rob and billson

      If you take private employ up post politics you lose your pension

      • Narapoia451MEMBER

        Unintended consequences of this – what happens to people that have their own companies? Are they not allowed to return to them without penalty? If not you will self select for politicians that are also business owners – with the implicit bias that will introduce. If yes, you will select for people without the drive to want to do anything other than connive at politics and live off a pension. Or you will just ensure that whatever positions they are bribed with while being a politician pay well enough to make up for the lost pension and time waiting to take the position.

        I don’t know what the solution is, no representative form of govt has ever solved the problem of the influence of moneyed interests over those elected. Maybe some form of penalty for any organisation that attempts to hire ex politicians. If shareholders lose money they tend to punish management. But if management make them enough money by bribing the politicians in the first place maybe they won’t mind the penalty. And round it goes…

  14. [email protected]

    Listening to abc on the drive home and the guy talking about the job creation/unemployment numbers sounded like some of the comments here, he was nearly lost for words at the numberwang and was almost manic in his delivery pointing out gig jobs aren’t real jobs.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      His stuff is good and so is that on Peak Prosperity (US), but they are both just too long – 20 minutes should be about the maximum.

      • Danny Hayes

        Agreed I normally skip some, but tonight’s 40min was a very good commentary on exactly where things are at and heading

      • Wiley Wolf

        Short enough for you
        the outgoings now exceed the income
        thus the upkeep becomes the downfall.
        It is already well under way.
        write it on your fridge

    • On The Beach

      It sill beggars belief that he (or at least his web hosting company or his YouTube channel) have not been re-educated forcibly.

      I’m not talking about the street scum RE agents or wannabe Lebanese property developers who work the turf south and west of Parramatta.

      There are much bigger players that need him to seriously STFU so they can cash out in the next 6-9 months before there is a widespread realisation amongst the punters.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Nobody is paying attention but the bears 🐻 and a TV producer in search of ‘balance’. He’ll be just fine.

    • Danny Hayes

      Some thoughts from his video and about our heading. Especially those professionals on big salaries about to find themselves on jobseeker… I sense a lot of these people still think that it will be business as usual tomorrow.

      I remember my grandmother telling me about the Great Depression and what it was like to live through it. It affected my grandparents lives until the day they died, including stockpiling 60 rolls of toilet paper at all times. It formed a deep part of their psyche and even though they were affluent in later life, they never splurged or wasted.

      I wonder when we will see the fallout from today’s situation. Will people go back to business as usual, living on credit and wasting money freely. Or will this be a defining moment of our generation, which will see the majority save money, take on less debt and become more frugal in general? Time will tell I suppose, but I suspect we will have a good idea in the next 12 months about which direction it’s going…

      • Wiley Wolf

        There are any number of professional pilots out there
        who are now stacking shelves, and who know they are on short finals
        to a crash landing.
        This whole joint is going to fail to make the runway.
        Where are the fire trucks?

        • Danny Hayes

          Fireys are making bank
          Normally it’s fiercely competitive to get a gig, 4000 applicants 200 spots.
          Imagine how many multiples of 4000 will be applying for the next intake! Probably 40,000 to 200 spots

      • GavinMEMBER

        I’ve always lived a bit like my great grandparents and grand parents in this regard anyway. I never really used credit to buy things.

        So Covid-19 has actually made me more resourceful as a result. I’m wasting far less food each week and I’m taking time to repair / mend and fix things.

        I’ve not spent any money on toys, basically just essentials including bills. My wife is saying I shouldn’t just focus on the Mortgage or my bills but also spend and enjoy a little. But frankly I’m worried about how things look over the next 10 or so years. So removing all debt seems to be a focus for me.

  16. footsore

    2011 Pinot Noir from Marlborough. The winery is Matua. It’s damn good.
    (I’m holidaying and aunty is letting me into her wine collection.)