Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

 

turdburglar

Markets inverted their risk profile today in Asia with Chinese stocks selling off as the Yuan surges against USD, Japanese markets tread water and local shares lift strongly in line with Wall Street overnight. Currency markets are poised for tonight’s Federal Reserve meet with gold coming back slightly as the symmetrical triangle on the four hourly chart begins to close up in response, now at the $1958USD per ounce level:

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite has given back yesterday’s advance to be down nearly 0.7% to 3273 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is doing the same, down over 0.3% to 24661 points. Japanese stock markets are holding on despite a much stronger Yen with the Nikkei 225 barely unchanged at 23475 points as the USDJPY pair looks set to breakdown to a new weekly low (solid black horizontal line) at the 105 handle:

The ASX200 was the odd one out, soaring 1% to be at 5956 points while the Australian dollar is remaining firm and steady in preparation for the FOMC meeting, still at a two week high and just above the 73 handle against USD:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are relatively flat with the S&P500 four hourly chart continuing to climb up to key resistance at the 3420 point area, but still yet unable to crossover:

The economic calendar has two big ones to watch out for – US retail sales and the latest FOMC (aka the Money Printer’s Alliance) meeting.

PS: 48 days til the US Presidential election. I’ll stop the cartoons/memes then. Maybe.

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Comments

  1. Shoulda gonna back into TSLA, didn’t
    Tried to short AUD, failed.
    Looked at PMs, couldn’t decide what to do.
    Euro bonds are back to negative and dollar index keeps sliding.

    FIIK.

  2. reposing again from the morning report as I only posted it in the arvo and is more relevant to now..

    NikoMEMBER
    September 16, 2020 at 3:13 pm

    couple of days ago I made prediction how markets are going to behave this week and how they’ll finish.. US markets that is.
    First night was close enough as I predicted solid gains but was out to a point as I thought they’ll rally more than they did. Second night I called for small falls and DOW wasn’t far.
    Tonight call was and still is solid falls even though futures are still green and start to think there will be no reprieve on Thursday or Friday. Feels like this week will shake most of the Robyn Hooders.

      • probably.
        This Friday is the end of the quarter for options. Huge volumes will expire on Friday night and from what I heard Robyn Hooders bought massive volumes with very short maturity dates – few weeks.
        If that is the case and large percentage expires this Friday I think most are under water and if market falls ~ 2% tonight it will trigger panic selling on Thursday which means it will be pure bloodbath on Friday with every single Robin Hood trader capitulating.
        Just a theory and I may end up being wrong real bad.. looking at the futures I probably will be wrong.

      • just to clear few things:
        Selling tonight might be cause by institutions who were buying to hedge against their naked call options they sold to the retail as they realise retail is under water. Once those options become worthless banks will trigger margin calls on the retail and that will cause the second wave of selling which should happen on Thursday. By Friday all will be over and people will be selling with aim not to trade again in their life.

        If I am right that is. But futures are telling me I am making fool of myself.

  3. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Interesting to walk my neighborhood in lockdown. Everybody’s cars are on the street or in front of the garage. WFH in the garage I guess.

    So many families with young kids with a new Subaru Outback and a ritzy euro car. It’s like $120k plus, depreciating while doing SFA for status and transport.

  4. At this stage of the game it simply begs the question of whether it is the policy of the current Australian LNP government, headed by PM Scott Morrison, to completely trash the competitive basis of the Australian economy and to inflict lasting economic pain on all Australians.

    Further to that, if we think it was an ALP government (Gillard’s) which OK’d the Gladstone white elephant, and governments of both flavours which have looked the other way while Australian gas which once meant amongst the cheapest gas prices in the world for Sydney and Melbourne, and therefore cheap electricity, has become about the world’s most expensive – while both sides of politics try to nudge coal seam gas and fracking on a population all too aware of the environmental and health costs this entails – then the following question simply arise.

    Does Australia’s body politic – both mainstream sides including the Lberal Party, the National Party and the Australian Labor Party – have at its core an economic policy of completely trashing the competitive basis of the Australian economy and to inflict lasting economic pain on all Australians.

    Have Australian public sector data gathering, regulatory, and policy formulation organisations and departments been so corrupted that they do not identify the above? Have they been so neutered that they cannot report the above to Australian politicians?

    And at that point

    Are Australian political and public sector elites acting in the best interests of Australians? Are they accountable for acting in the interests and explaining their actions to Australians to a sufficient degree enabling Australians to feel that their politicians and senior policy makers are accountable to them? ….and if they are not, How can they be made more so?

    It is time for open revolt.

    I think it is time for a new political party which I would call putatively Bullshit Australia – the party to identify and deal with Australian Bullshit and to promote informed and data backed decisionmaking throughout the political and administrative bodies of Australia, and to hold politicians, public officials and corporate interests to account for past decisions made, starting with a permanent standing Australian Corruption Commission.

    Current Members
    Gunnamatta – Victoria
    LSWCHP – ACT
    blacktwin997
    Forrest Gump (Secretary of the ‘No Bullshit’ wing of the Party)
    Bendy Wire
    RobotSensei
    The Sling Shot Boys
    Haroldus (NSW)

    • I’m loving it.

      I think I’ll pop by twitter and give her a 20 round burst of my finest sympathy. Or perhaps even (shudders with anticipation) what the armoured guys used to call a 50 round “killing burst”.

    • Oh, that felt good.

      My partner back in the late 80s was a senior bureaucrat at a local tertiary institution. She was involved in the very earliest programs to entice foreign students from Asia to “study” here. I can tell you right now that even way back then there was exactly zero interest in providing a quality education, and 100% interest in making money.

      I knew it would eventually turn into a goatfcuk. Just didn’t think it would take 30 years.

      Well, here we are. Chortle. Sucks to be Dr Demography, eh?

    • China PlateMEMBER

      Geez mig you impressed “Ladywhitepeace”
      But you may need to explain this

      “Peace is Free, Always Available with Instant Delivery and No Work Required!”

    • adelaide_economistMEMBER

      Loved this reply:

      “International students are dropping out of Education degrees because of the inability to pass LANTITE. This means that we are losing full fee paying places. Does this not have a roll on effect on university job losses and fee hikes?”

      LANTITE being the literacy and numeracy test for teacher education students. So these diligent and noble protectors of ‘higher education’ aren’t worried that student teachers can’t read or write well enough to pass a basic test, but that full fee paying places may be emptied. How low have our universities fallen when even the ‘woke’ are just money grubbing pieces of slime? The commenter no doubt identifies as an ‘academic’ and ‘left wing’ but her thinking should put her front and centre on the LNP front bench. She’d be right at home.

      • Jumping jack flash

        The people who are in charge of universities and their policies and such need their gargantuan piles of debt like everyone else. To be eligible for the right sized piles requires the proportionate amounts of income. University income is created through sales of places.
        Sell more places, increase income, increase the maximum size of your debt pile.

        Its pretty simple to see how it works, and most importantly, why it must be done like this.

  5. No calls to sack Gladys? The media is silent yet again #BullshitAustralia

    https://7news.com.au/news/nsw/adf-member-caught-entertaining-woman-while-in-hotel-quarantine-c-1317960

    An Australian Defence Force member has been fined after “entertaining” a guest while undertaking mandatory hotel quarantine.

    A 53-year-old woman was found in the 26-year-old man’s hotel room after ADF officers conducting security at the Pier One hotel in Sydney “heard a female voice in the room of a man”, NSW Police said in a statement.

    The man is in mandatory coronavirus quarantine in the hotel after recently returning from overseas deployment.

  6. btw.. I bought another 100k shares in PXX. I liked what I saw in their last announcement. Widths not as great as first two holes but grades are ok and visuals from few of the cores point to higher grades of Cu and Au. Soon I’ll find out if right or wrong.

          • yes, check ASX ann.
            In regards last year drilling the scarn I think those are good results. This or last week announcement is extentional drilling of the scarn deposit and I find it very encouraging.
            Agree in regards to the porphyry drilling last year but with porphyry (not trying to look for excuses) exploration, it is very very rare for someone to hit high grades with their first 10 holes and PXX has only drilled very few. Lot less than 10.
            Ask your friend to look into the latest announcement please – keen to hear opposing view or if he/she changes position.

          • also, be aware they can only drill during summer due to weather. I expect them to raise more funds on the back of current drilling so they can continue drilling the scarn.
            My understanding is pXX is looking for JV partner to drill the Porphyry targets but they may be forced to drill few more holes on their own. If they raise enough capital they may do so.

      • money wise I know they will need to raise funds soon. I am focusing on the quality of their ground and chances to make decent discovery.
        Thanks for heads up. Let me know if your friend looked at the table and still think not that good. I thought those were good indicators for decent grades. Obviously no one knows how much of those minerals are present in the cores but Chalcocite, Bornite and Cuprite will normally indicate higher than average grades. On top of that they observed visible gold in three cores.

  7. Woot! After months of searching I just bought myself a SIG Sauer P226 9mm handgun. An absolute classic to go with my other two 9mm handguns. Because, in these difficult times, or even in the best of times, a man can never have too many guns.

    Along with the Father’s day single malt, it’s making up for a crap day at work.

    • Can’t go wrong with a Sig, quality handguns. I have a P320 and it’s the best handgun I’ve ever owned. I am looking at the new M18 but the US ammo shortage is starting to bite atm.

      • I almost bought a P320 about 4 years ago when I was in the market for a polymer piece. Sweet guns, but they were hard to get and I ended up with a Walther PPQ instead. Very similar guns, but I think the Walther has a better trigger…almost but not quite like an average single action and way superior to my previous Glock.

        Regarding ammo, if you don’t reload you should give it a go. A Dillon Square Deal will let you make about 150-200 premium quality rounds per hour with no fuss at all. A bigger Dillon would be even better. You can tune the ammo to your gun, it’s a fraction of the cost of factory loads and you become pretty independent of factory ammo supplies.

        • I reload my rifles just not my Cat H. I have a Hornady multistage which is great, it’s just finding the time to smash out 500 or so rounds is a pain atm.

          P320 is quality. The calibre x-change kits are great If you can still find them and can essentially turn it into 4 guns in one. Except if you want .45ACP then you have to swap everything out essentially and not just barrel/mags.

          That being said I think it’s time for another handgun now.

          • It’s always time for another handgun! 🙂

            I must be the converse of you. I shoot about 7-8000 rounds of competition pistol each year, and do the odd bit of rifle sighting and practice for my hunting where I mostly don’t fire a shot due to my miserably poor hunting skills. Let’s just call it armed bushwalking rather than hunting. 🙂

            Speaking of which…must be time to book another hunt.

    • I suspect you’re right.

      The Dems have miscalculated massively with the Antifa/BLM violence. Who woulda thought people don’t like their homes and businesses and police stations being burned to the ground as they are assaulted in restaurants?

      When faced with a choice between that outcome and being ruled by a demented degenerate, or Trump, I think a helluva lot of people will quietly choose Trump.

      Trump has played the Dems like a guitar. They expected him to charge in like a bull at a gate over riding state rights, producing more Kent State massacres etc. Instead he’s stood back and said ” it’s a state issue but call me if you want me”. None of the Dem governors could stomach that option, so virtuously and righteously in the cause of social justice they have watched as their cities were burned and pillaged by hired criminals in the guise of “mostly peaceful” protestors.

      I think Trump will win bigly on election night. Whether the Dems manage to pull of their mail-in voting scam is another matter.

      I should add that analysis is not endorsement. Trump is a pig of a man and his business practices were appalling. He is a bad person, but I would’ve voted for him over Clinton, as the better tasting of two sh1t sandwiches. Biden is as bad as Clinton but in different dimensions. I sit here amazed every day that a major US political party could successively offer up two such horrendous people as presidential candidates when someone as admirable as Tulsi Gabbard was in the running But that’s how they got Trump, and that’s how they’ll get more Trump.

  8. Tehan just on ABC the business talking international students. Point blank said he wanted to get it back to “where it was ” and then had a VC on whinging about revenue declines.

    Interesting point made was the S.A. pilot program seems to have hit a dead end. Not surprised.

    • I just saw Tehan too… poor bugger, he’s residing over a portfolio that could well dry up to nothing – the internationals will start doing these over-priced Aussie uni courses online, realise they don’t need to actually come here and be further shafted for all the other costs associated with residing here, and they’ll soon realise virtual attendance is the smartest way to obtain Australian higher education qualifications on your CV… then the game really is up!

      • adelaide_economistMEMBER

        Sadly no. Pre-covid19 there were as many jimmies coming to SA as there were to WA – I’m guessing the proximity to the preferred east coast cities was the draw. As for the inability to ‘finalise the details’ on the international students into Adelaide, I suspect the fact the Premier went missing on social media for a week after it was announced and that the usual LNP cheer squad in the local Murdoch rag comment section went feral in opposition to it has something to do with the postponement.

    • adelaide_economistMEMBER

      Predictable ABC. Still pushing the ‘economic benefit’ angle with the dubious $40bn in export figure. When the ABC is arguing for something because it (supposedly) contributes to economic growth, how dumb do you need to be to not be suspicious? They go full neolib on anything that involves migration. Basically that segment on The Business is an advert for a business that makes money from stuffing internationals into dog boxes in preparation for them to get their PR and then buy a (slightly) larger dog box somewhere in one of our more unliveable CBDs. Boo hoo their growth model has come unstuck so let’s all get a deadly disease so their profit projections get met!

  9. Sorry Chris but this one sided anti trump meme you keep publishing is the sloe reason I refuse to subscribe. This is an economic website.i Thought but politics has corrupted it and now it’s lost its appeal. Mb is a different place now. If it wasn’t for the comments I’d place it with news.com.au. Get your act together fellas. Go back to what you’re good at.

      • adelaide_economistMEMBER

        It’s weird to me how many people on here, especially non-members, make threats or talk about why they don’t subscribe. I’ve never seen anything like it on other website forums. My most common feeling is that anyone who reads the articles on here regularly should subscribe and if they can’t or won’t, at least refrain from making demands or threats about the content.

        PS FWIW I find Chris’s Trump obsession juvenile but if he thinks a small and predominantly Australian based audience is going to somehow influence the US Presidential outcome by posting endless weak memes then let him. If he doesn’t realise he’s not on reddit then that’s his problem. You might even argue he’s pro-Trump because of his obsessive posting of weak anti-Trump memes.

        PPS It’s also weird how MB gets attacked from those claiming it’s too ‘left’ and those claiming it’s inhabited by those from the ‘right’. For my part, this website is probably the most ‘free’ open forum in the country and I’m happy to provide the token support through membership that I can for an alternate voice in a very desolate media landscape. I certainly don’t expect David or Leith (or Chris or Gunna) to be in lockstep with my views on everything.

        • No demands. No threats. It was constructive criticism. Although perhaps offered through a prism of exasperation and fatigue. I don’t regularly read the articles anymore but I do enjoy reading the banter in the comments section. By adding a partisan perspective to an ostensibly economic website it puts off ~50% of the readership needlessly. MB is generally a very good and rare independent media platform and deserves praise for it.

          I agree the continuous anti trump stuff from Chris is juvenile. It is a disservice to MB as a whole in my opinion. It’s not one or two articles, it’s become a theme and has zero to little relationship with the rest of his written article.

          I don’t understand or think relevant the rest of your last 2 paragraphs to my original comment and have no response.

    • Sorry you feel offended by a single picture at the top of a post each day…
      And if you don’t think following the trajectory of US politics has any impact on macro or markets, then I’m not sure if you want to be fully informed. Go to news.com.au to be more fuller informed, especially about the Kardashians.
      My “juvenile” way of responding the nationalist populist, social media obsessed, willfully ignorant, QAnon et al conspiratorial anti-mask brigade of stupidity – let alone the climate change denialists – is a coping mechanism for having to deal with the fucked up world that we have. But you know, free speech and all that.
      Have nice day.

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