Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

The bounceback continues here in Asia, with most stock markets putting in solid sessions following the rebound on Wall Street overnight. Currency markets are pushing USD down goign into tonight’s ECB meeting with Euro and Pound Sterling surging before the London open. Bitcoin is slowly building after its brief look-see below the $10000 level while gold is holding on to its overnight gains, not yet ready to break above resistance at the $1950USD per ounce level:

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite was the odd one out, putting in a scratch session to be at 3252 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is also relatively weak, up only 0.2% to 24519 points. Japanese stock markets were the best performers with the Nikkei 225 rising nearly 0.9% to 23235 points while the USDJPY pair is slowly deflating back towards the 106 handle:

The ASX200 put in a solid session, closing 0.5% higher to 5908 points, but still quite shy of the 6000 point level, as the Australian dollar continued to hold onto its own bounceback overnight, right on the Monday morning starting point at the 72.80 level against USD:

Eurostoxx futures are up 0.3% or so while S&P futures are up only 0.1% or so, with the S&P500 four hourly chart indicating a possible stall here at the 3400 point level:

The economic calendar will be dominated by the latest ECB meeting while the US initial jobless claim print will be interesting thereafter.

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  1. UNITED STATES … CORONAVIRUS UPDATE …

    Is The Pandemic Over? … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/pandemic-over

    Authored by Ron Ross via AmericanThinker.com,

    A curious but fortunate characteristic of virus epidemics is their limited lifespans. No one knows why, but guesses include herd immunity and mutations of the virus.
    The following graph from the Centers for Disease Control and the National Center for Health Statistics shows the time profile of the COVID-19 weekly death counts from February onward. (For an interactive version of the graph go here.)
    .
    .
    Earlier report …

    UNITED STATES … CDC says only 9,210 deaths caused solely by COVID 19 … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5zonztFYFQ

    U.S CDC Update …

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

  2. Us doctors have been run off our feet with boomers demanding their healthcare again
    Reminds me of what BD6 said….
    Kilgore : Medicare, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that. I love the smell of Medicare reimbursements in the morning. The smell, you know that cash-flow smell? Smells like… victory. Someday this scamdemic is gonna end.
    That’s WRT apoc now for dummy ep

  3. What a scumbag Andrews is, NLP’d everyone and played journalism like Sir Joh and the lefties – ala sweepey – lap it up!

    Guess what lefties he admitted he’s a dictator and every decision was his, where will your mind control take you now Gav?

      • Hang on a second!!! If it’s a suspected overdose and he had covid – presumably isolating – did he actually kill himself with last of his scag knowing he wouldn’t be able to score again for weeks?!?!?

        So much BS in this police state now I’m wondering if they’re classifying suicides as covid!

    • Turns out journalism and libertarians were so wrong they weren’t even wrong they were wrong a priori because the choice was never between opposing quantities.
      https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-endless-urging-of-victoria-to-open-up-is-baffling-20200906-p55swi.html

      there is no trade-off between health and economic aspect. See the Deloitte chart ‘the more deaths the worse your economy’.
      Who could have known a policy of allowing workers and consumers to get sick is actually … bad for the ‘economy’?
      Not in journatarianstan where the market is so perpetually omnipotent the slaves don’t even need to reproduce themselves.

        • Everything. Journalism and libertarians argued that by locking down to minimise the health impact of the virus we would hurt the economy more than if there was no lockdown.
          Well turns out a no lockdown policy would have hurt the economy more. So Dan has been spot on in saying we won’t fix the economy until we fix the health issue. In fact he has been generous, locking down helps the economy v where it would be absent the lockdown.

          So this is the baseline journalism and libertarians need to walk people through. Why follow a do nothing strategy which would have led to a worse health crisis *and* a worse economy v the lockdown strategy?
          Its like asking people shoot themselves in the foot via the knee.

          • Haywood JablomyMEMBER

            You’re right of course. Lockdown or no lockdown, people will complain, with no thought given to what the outcomes might have been in the alternate scenario. Everyone knows everything when they only have to deal with the current reality, and snipe at those who are responsible for making decisions without perfect foresight of the future. A bunch of “Mondays experts”, and the world is full of them.
            Stupidly, the one man living on this ISLAND who could probably have stopped the whole thing turning to sh!t sits there alongside all the Harry Hindsights sniping at everyone who is trying to fix the problem he f#cking enabled.

          • Sweeper has become increasingly psychotic since scomo won the election

            Completely lost touch reality with now

          • You create a strawman that everyone who has issues with the dictatorial performance of Dan Andrews, which we can now confirm thanks to journalism discovering that all the different decisions pathways end at Dan and makes the rules alone, is only interested in the economy. You further compound the falacy with some absurd suggestion that not shutting down completely is somehow worse for the economy when the comparison is to some fantasy state no-one has reached…

            Journalism btw is making money just fine so what do they care about the rest of the economy ffs?

          • I’ll answer in the negative, and assert what restrictions should go:

            The curfew and restriction on when you can leave your house definitely. Then the social bubble expansion etc can happen a lot sooner than mid October if for no other reason than to monitor what measures are effective – having them all at full bore paints you into the corner that you can basically never ease until transmission is at effective zero.

      • That graph by Deloitte is disingenuous in polite terms. Talk about selecting data points and building a graph around it.
        Some EU countries plucked out while others not. Where are Belgium and Holland to start with?
        They would certainly make the line of best fit look a little less convincing.

    • What kind control? I’m not a fan of being locked down and lord knows it’s messing with me mentally also. As many others are feeling. But I don’t see any other way forward if we want to keep this thing suppressed.

      Sure we could loosen some controls up, but why in Earth so we keep seeing the numbers remain elevated? My guess is that some sectors of the community are not following the rules/restrictions as they should.

  4. Breaking news:
    ECB to meet to discuss “too strong Euro” …

    Tick, tock …. race to the bottom to take another leg lower.

    “My currency’s lower than your one!”

  5. call me ArtieMEMBER

    Although I am cautious about the situation with covid, I can foresee one scenario which has not much to do with medicine and a lot to do with how people work. If Victorians get really fed up with being under curfew, they will simply not get tested.

    No new cases

  6. Come on Chris, give us bit of balanced coverage. I am sure few of Biden’s pearls will make people laugh or cringe. He bragged openly how he forced Ukraine to fire the investigator who was investigating his son – still available on twitter.
    Or when Joe introduced himself as being Joe’s husband.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Gotta love that Zerohedge comments section,

      “ Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko said last month via Belarusian Telegraph Agency, BelTA., that World Bank and IMF offered him a bribe of $940 million USD in the form of “Covid Relief Aid.” In exchange the World Bank and IMF demanded that the President of Belarus:

      • imposed “extreme lockdown on his people”

      • force them to wear face masks

      • impose very strict curfews

      • impose a police state

      President Lukashenko refused the offer and stated that he could not accept such an offer and would put his people above the needs of the IMF and World Bank. This fact can be verified using most search engines.

      Now IMF and World Bank are bailing out airlines with billions of dollars, and in exchange, they are forcing airline CEOs to implement strict policies such as forced face covers on everyone, including small children, whose health will suffer as a result of these policies.

      And if it is true for Belarus, then it is true for the rest of the world. The IMF and World Bank want to crash every major economy with the intent of buying over every nation’s infrastructure at cents on the dollar”

  7. Rumours are Dictator Dan is finished, will be gone within 24 hours. Tim Pallas will be premier and an ADF General will be brought in to take Vic out lockdown faster.

      • Made this point on the weekend and someone said “whats your point”.
        Point is an elected government is using laws passed by parliament decades ago with the majority support of the electorate.
        Could not be any further away from a dictatorship. oh and a march isn’t always ‘democratic’.

        • Do you even know what a dictatorship is?? They’re all based on laws, they all invoke public safety, they all enjoy broad popular support.

          You fake lefties are doing my head in.

          • well you can write to your local member advise them their position is now ceremonial (because journalism said so) and that the defining feature of a dictatorship is where an elected government puts laws into action which were passed decades ago by parliament in accordance with separation of powers and with the support of the electorate, but leads a few libertarians to go out and protest and have a teary.

          • Come on Mig, dictatorships also control the various state apparatus to enable popular support namely the media, religion, services etc. Dan is hardly in control of these elements.

          • I don’t have to write them and journalism didn’t say anything they themselves didn’t say. 3 cross benchers were bought off and voted in a suspension of Parliament for 6 months.

            Literally how all the other dictatorships go their start.

            *golf clap*

            And my local member is the missing in action health minister and believe me I’ve written

          • I just think its funnie sweeper that libertarians are now using emotional special pleas like there is no tomorrow.

          • I think it’s funny that your stripe that sees the government as the answer to everything can’t deal with the fact that if it wasn’t for the private sector keeping up the internet none of this would be possible.

            Headdesk thunk it…

          • I just think its funnie sweeper that libertarians are now using emotional special pleas like there is no tomorrow.

            Haven’t they always ? It’s not like there’s any rational or evidence-based “pleas” for a “philosophy” that in nearly all cases is in direct conflict with reality (and when called out, typically insists it is reality that is at fault) and exists for no real reason other than to try and put a figleaf of intellectualism over “me want, fuck you”.

          • Ugh at talking in timeless absolutes mig, guess not much thinking is required.

            BTW how many of your previous notions over the years have not held up, might want to check that before talking about stuff.

          • Victorians didn’t vote for ScoMo. There was a swing to Shorten in Victoria.
            Yes I don’t like a lot of ScoMos policies but I don’t go calling him a dictator. Words like “dictatorship”, “the left” actually mean something – or did pre Twitter.

          • Your point used to be that the Australian people were misled by the media

            Which is exactly what has happened with regards to Covid

      • “For the first time in three weeks of surveying a majority of Victorians 53% (up 6% in a week) say Melbourne residents should now be able to visit the homes of immediate family members.

        A rising majority of 67% (up 10%) of older Victorians aged 65+, say Melburnians should be able to visit the homes of their immediate family. This is despite being the age group at the greatest risk during the pandemic.”

        But Dan isn’t offering any of that, he’s baby steps may never materialise and he’s been given too much power to change.

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