Why Australia’s property market will bust

Chris Rands from Nikko Asset Management has penned a terrific report explaining why Australia’s property market is headed for price falls of up to 20%. Below are key extracts:

The current housing figures have been remarkably resilient given the circumstances…

When determining a short-term outlook for house prices, three key indicators prove particularly useful: auction clearance rates, mortgage finance and building approvals. At the moment, these indicators are not pointing to serious concerns around housing, with the more likely short-term outcome being a decline in the 5 – 10 per cent range…

Auction clearance rates give a timely indicator of sentiment… To end up flat year-on-year over the next few months, we would need to see a 5 per cent fall in prices to offset the late 2019 strength…

Mortgage finance has fallen from its lofty levels during late 2019 and we expect this should weigh on prices—potentially in the 5 to 10 per cent range over the next few months…

The most recent figures for building permits show there’s been a quick decline in the intention to build, which signifies house price weakness in the near term as developers expect sales will be harder to achieve…

Currently, Australia is facing its worst economic performance in 70 years with very little room for rates to fall. So, we must also think about how these indicators could move in the bigger picture environment…

Typically when discussing Australian housing, the narrative goes along these lines: “Yes our house prices are some of the most expensive in the world, but we have strong migration, good affordability and constricted supply compared to other countries, which justifies the high prices”…

As such, we look to the bigger picture indicators—unemployment, immigration, fiscal support and interest rates – to glean the potential direction of the housing market…

The largest risk to the property market at the moment comes in the form of unemployment, as Australia faces an unprecedented level of job losses…

Around 3.5% of the working-age population lost their jobs since March, which does not include those who are currently on the JobKeeper program (~3 million people). This is a decline of close to 700,000 jobs and is two times larger than that seen in the early 1990s recession and four times larger than the 2008 recession…

This huge level of unemployment has brought with it economic hardship that has required relief from the banking system. The Australian Banking Association has said that almost 500,000 borrowers have been granted loan deferrals, with the Australian Financial Review stating that about 1 in 5 of these ”Are in deep financial strife”. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) states that deferrals across home loans account for about 10% of all loans…

If a sizeable amount of those 1 in 5 who are in deep financial strife are deemed not able to repay, then there could be tens of thousands of forced sellers hitting the market in the back end of this year…

The current iteration of the government’s higher-than-usual unemployment benefits were recently rolled for an additional six months, however, will offer lower benefits than previously received…

In Australia, the average mortgage balance is $400,000, which on a 30-year term with 3% interest would cost about $780 per fortnight. The bare minimum living expense for a person in Sydney, as calculated using an example lenders Household Expenditure Measure (HEM), is $546 per fortnight. With these stats we can now compare how the typical household would fare living with an average mortgage using an estimate of the different government benefits:

The shaded boxes in the table show the current forecasted financial position…

Compare this to the outcome that will be observed come October, when the payments are reduced—the right hand side of the table…

As noted above, approximately 700,000 Australians have lost their job (so will be reliant on JobSeeker) and more than three million people are currently on the JobKeeper program. Should these people find themselves in financial stress due to falling income come October, there could be more forced sellers in the property market…

And while not addressed above, this analysis also holds true for the large number of Australians who are renting, paying on average $872 a fortnight. Should these people be unable to afford rent, property investor income will be jeopardised…

Immigration and population growth…

Given the borders are expected to be shut until 2021, immigration will be weak for at least the next six months—moving population growth closer to the natural increase of 140,000 people, a reduction of ~60% vs a normal year.

Since the average Australian household has 2.6 people living in it, this will be a reduction in demand of around 80,000 properties per year while the borders remain closed…

Overall, this is one of the more concerning big picture ideas for housing over the next 12 months. A traditional source of demand from population growth will be slowing at a time when unemployment is high and the ability for Australians to buy housing is lower than usual…

Interest rates

Interest rates have consistently fallen whenever the housing market showed any signs of stress… Unfortunately for the RBA, rates are at a level they perceive to be the lower bound (0.25%). Without moving into negative territory, the RBA has little room to continue easing via traditional methods. Hence the viability of this strategy, cutting rates to keep prices rising as seen over the past 10 years, looks like it could be coming to an end…

When we come back to our question: how worried should we be? The answer to this question at the moment falls on government support and just how long it will last. So far, the government has reluctantly shown that it expects to continue these support measures with new restrictions and the banks have been given another six months to extend deferrals to those who can repay at the end.

Hence, depending on how these support measures are changed, there is good reason to believe that the negatives will continue to outweigh the positives over the next 12 months as the expansionary polices are slowly unwound. This means house prices could fall further than the forecast 5 – 10 per cent that most expect over the short term and into the 10 – 20 per cent decline range.

That certainly calls for more concern than the short term indicators would suggest.

This is excellent analysis that accords with MB’s view.

The big risk is that with both prices and rents falling, Australia’s army of negatively geared landlords will cut their losses and sell en masse. This could lead to a large number of for sale listings hitting the market, causing a feedback loop that drives prices even lower.

Full report here.

Leith van Onselen

Comments

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Negative because it is irrelevant and therefore becomes less powerful as it spins around into nothing burgerness.

      • Reusa knows. Fundamentals don’t matter to Australian property – if they did we wouldn’t be here.

        Property in Australia is the State Religion. House prices are an article of faith not to be analysed by science.

        This will not change until our DOG deserts us like the Israelites in babylon ….

  1. They will hold on like barnacles until they are scraped off on rock bottom. They are unshakeable true believers And ‘right” for 20 + years. Besides where else are these franking credit collecting BBs going to feel safe parking their money right now if they sell? No they ain’t ‘giving it away’ and will cling on til the reaper cometh.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Yep, those excess franking credit collecting zero taxpayer BBs are among the most tight a.sed, self-righteous but biggest whingeing ch.nts you’ll ever come across, and with their cause championed by the likes of that supercilious PB pollie Tim Wilson and his cousin Geoff in what was a magnificent but truly deceitful spin campaign at the last election, are more sanctimonious than ever.

      Yep, property investing for them will only be safe if they are guaranteed to be winners at it and that will require Scotty from Marketing to open the vibrant floodgates again which little doubt he, together with the stamp duty state premier junkies, is wanting post-haste – you have all those lovely freedom seeking HKers just dying to get a bit of Strayan gold …. property.

    • Agree, Why wouldn’t they be believers?
      History proved time and time again that the .gov.au will support RE by any mean possible and at any cost, until the last savings deposit is drained.
      We are not near the enf of the rope by a mile…

      • Correct. ‘High property prices’ seems to be written into the constitution, along with perpetual GDP growth.

    • It’s only 20%. That’s not moving the dial far enough into the affordable zone. It’ll only be for a couple of years anyhow. For most property holders I expect they’d be correct to assume most losses will be felt in the apartment sector. As a former bear I no longer believe that houses would ever correct by more than 10%. The best I can hope for is that my rent just won’t go up by a multiple if inflation for a couple of years.

    • I agree BUT I have personally seen the way RE markets collapsed in the US during GFC and would expect exactly the same to happen here if all the stars align (unemployment, interest rates ….)
      When all these stars align it stops being a question of Buyer intent / sentiment and the RE market becomes a prisoner of Liquidity. Those that want to buy can’t get a loan and those that want to sell are not allowed to “short sell”, Eventually so much stock stacks up the books of the banks that they are forced to start foreclosures while at the same time refusing to write new loans (the banks are desperate for operation cash and wanting to change the balance of their loan book, because WS is punishing those banks that are overweighted on RE mortgages)
      Unthinkable things happen when the sh!t really hits the fan, stupidity best describes the situation, the banks behave in a manner that is so far from a logical and rational response as to have even the biggest RE bear questioning what they know that he doesn’t.
      What they know is that when money is not available, price is immaterial. This is what Economists call a liquidity crises.
      If you doubt what I’m saying just look back at the enormous profits that the Blackstone group made on residential RE as a result of the banks exiting the RE market post GFC these profits were so big because banks wanted to wholesale large blocks of default properties, Available properties weren’t even offered to local residents because banks didn’t want to completely collapse the RE markets, mark to market requirements etc.

    • Not when there rental can’t get a tenant. Elwood where I live has gone from 200 to 150 rentals on market in the last two weeks. There was 102 rental on market in late March. They can’t find tenants and they are getting ready to off load in spring. Watch the increase of properties for sale when lock down finishes.

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      That’s exactly why it will be extreme. Australia can’t leak to 10%, it will crash past 10% it keep going because it will be forced sales that ‘shocks’ people.
      Remember before covid? All the property religion “gurus” said there are 3 main reasons why houses can’t crash:

      -Unemployment – people will pay their mortgage with jobs even when eating 2 minute noodles

      -Immigration – the gates are open and people want a better life! Not enough supply blah blah.

      -The ole ambiguous “gov won’t let it fail”.

      Guess what’s left? The ole Gov. But understand that the levers they would normally pull have been snapped off.
      Just don’t be surprised when the numbers crash, which they are already doing but it’s early.

  2. I wonder if any of these property investors and people who have ridden the wave of this property madness stop to consider what effect the runaway dream of housing affordability has done to our youth and their aspirations?
    Spare us all that you worked hard.
    Kids now have to be 3 times smarter than their parents and work 10 times as hard to get a shoebox these days.

    Bring on the housing bust and consider our kids.

    • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

      Those same kids are voting to give their country away, and destroy their opportunity.

      They are their own worst enemy, and I hate watching where it’s going for the naive youth of Australia.

      They’re being scammed by the elite left.

      • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

        Lol. Well I certainly didn’t vote for the party who’s only policy was to keep Australia’s house prices from going down. That was the mostly useless and Un-productive older generations who got us to where we are..

      • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

        Mate it was very much the geriatrics of Australia that got us to where we are. Don’t see any 20 year olds selling-out their cattle empires to the Chinese. Not seeing many 20 year olds setting tax policy that benefits their portfolio of 20 investment properties.

        • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

          If you voted LNP, Labor or Greens YOU are the problem.

          Immigration is behind all our problems. You’ve worked that out yes?

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            Just stating the facts people like yourself do not have answers for…

            BTW, I haven’t posted for ages.

          • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

            Don’t think anyone voted for rampant immigration. But I can tell you it’s the older generations that benefit from the model most. And it’s pollies and business “leaders” of older generations that set the system up. So, ipso factso, it’s geriatrics perpetuating it.

          • Jumping jack flash

            immigration is a symptom of the New Economy paradigm of infinite debt growth in lieu of actual productivity and growth through skillful manufacturing and sales of useful items to the world.

            Immigrants serve two purposes, keeping in mind that the current population became debt saturated, more or less, some time during 2006 – 2010 :

            1. If suitably skilled they may be paid enough to be eligible for enormous quantities of debt that are absolutely essential, which they take on and hand up the pyramid.
            2. They are useful to steal wages from if they have no immediate aspirations for enormous quantities of debt to take on and hand up the pyramid. Stealing wages boosts the wages of the wage thief, allowing them to take on larger quantities of debt and hand them up the pyramid.

          • R!ck, don’t be a d!ck.
            Essentially not a presumptuous d1ck.
            It is so tedious and tiring.
            Cheers.

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            “Don’t think anyone voted for rampant immigration”

            Yes you did.

            “But I can tell you it’s the older generations that benefit from the model most”

            Absolutely. How could they possibly get younger Australians to vote for it?

            Infiltrate Greens and Labor with open borders MPs, make young voters left open borders advocates.

            Like I said, you’ve been scammed.

        • Australia is an oligarchy, just like the US and Russia. The real decisions in our society are made by a small coterie of very rich and powerful people, some of them foreigners. They come from all generations, apart from children, as do their minions in the media and government. The oligarchs own the mass media, so they can shape public opinion, manufacture consent, and withhold damaging (to them) information. They also own nearly all of our politicians, who depend on them for election funding, favourable coverage in the media, and lucrative careers and investment opportunities after they leave politics. That is why there are so many bipartisan government policies, on immigration, urban planning, taxation, foreign investment, etc., that serve the interests of the rich and their henchmen, but are disastrous for ordinary young people.

          This whole intergenerational nonsense is a beat-up by the media. The oligarchs want the peasants blaming each other and fighting among themselves, rather than looking for the real culprits. The average baby boomer has had zero say on anything important and owns little more than a crummy little house, bought when they were going cheap. Only one in five owns an investment property, The median superannuation balance for people retiring in 2015/2016 was $110,000 for men and $36,000 for women. Our aged pension is one of the least generous in the OECD,

          https://data.oecd.org/socialexp/pension-spending.htm

          The baby boomers are outnumbered by younger voters by more than two to one. Your generation voted for this.

          https://www.populationpyramid.net/australia/2020/

  3. I think that the use of the average in both mortgage and rent is wrong methodology and results in a wrong model projection. Otherwise ano on the bandwagon

    • Agreed on the use of averages – it’s interesting overall but does not provide an accurate picture of how much stress there could be.

      • Jumping jack flash

        Averages of averages is how they roll.
        It has shown everything is going gangbusters, with no problems as far as the eye can see in all directions. Why stop using their methodology? It may show up problems. Nobody likes problems. Nobody pays to be shown problems.

    • APRA have said any banks extending mortgage holidays from October onwards has to put up more capital against these loans – it will be treated as a bad loan.

      Let’s face it, anyone who needs another extension is marginal, at best.

      • Dom I’d normally agree but APRA never saw a can-kick it didn’t like, so I expect another rule change just in time…

        • Agreed. Wouldn’t rule anything out. The above info I got from a banking associate of mine. They have a couple of months to change their mind or water it down. The issue is this: anyone needing a further extension is probably toast so may as well get the ball rolling now while there’s still a bid in the market – trade when you can not when you have to.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      In the end, APRA will do what they are told to by the gubmint and the banks. Docile puppies don’t come much better than APRA. They’ve already gone to water on banks paying dividends – from the start and now even more. Other countries (eg several in Europe and NZ) told their banks to forget about dividends for at least a year. Anyway, nice to hear that CBA has just declared a juicy $2.98 (albeit 31% down on last year) dividend per share, plus full franking credits if you don’t mind. Still, I guess they are the most unlikely of the big 4 to go broke or have a run on deposits?

      • Jumping jack flash

        “They’ve already gone to water on banks paying dividends ”

        The whole dividends thing is mighty interesting in my opinion and something to watch very closely. It is probably the only return channel that returns a tiny fraction of total collected interest back into the economy. Now that channel is even smaller than it was while the amount of interest collected out of the economy hasn’t really reduced all that much. Repayment holidays accrue interest, IO is by definition interest payments only.

        Currently interest collected from mortgages is in the vicinity of 100 billion every year, keeping in mind that mortgages don’t facilitate the generation of any additional income to use to pay that interest, which represents additional money on top of the initial loan principal that was injected into the economy (and then must be completely removed over time). Removing the principal is theoretically trivial, because it was created and placed into the economy. But the interest? Where is that?

    • They are losing money every month if they keep can kicking. Better to foreclose and let uncle Phil buy them off the books claiming “we did everything we could”. SFM press team might even write the press release for them.

    • All property near me that’s come on the market since the pandemic started to take hold in March is now under offer. 1 place took a couple of months to sell but I noticed yesterday it’s under offer.

      I’m somewhat surprised because they are more than I paid back in October. I would personally be hoping off bigger discounts if I was in the market at this time.

      • Its showes dissociation between what all people say in sqm, Martin North etc and real life. Nothing of real prices plummeting materialised yet

        • High prices are rusted on in SA. Agree with a lot of the sentiments here. RE is a religion and investors will hold on until forced out. No homo economicus here.

        • Nah mate, I’m happy. Renting is more $$$ than what my mortgage repayments are now anyway. Having just had a baby too, the hassle of selling and finding a place to rent would not be worth the potential upside $$$ wise.

      • I do wonder whether the banks are being as strict as they claim to be. On the other hand, 2nd tier lenders are very busy, I hear.

        The only thing other than that I can think of is that people are responding to record low rates and believe the next leg is up. Also, I had drinks with a bunch of guys on Saturday (shed session) and all of them seemed happy, confident etc. Not one mention of doom, gloom all arvo – just business as usual. I guess it’s also fair to say that anyone who’d fallen on hard times would probably not have turned up, but still.

        • Sunlord BCNMEMBER

          I’m not surprised to see QLD SE feel confident
          It’s M and S that will crash first
          QLD will be hit with rest of AUST when int rates rise
          As all these mortgages fall into arrears and default the banks are going to increase int rates out of cycle to protect their margin
          As home loan rates rise, the drink with the boys will be much less optimistic
          Home loan interest rates are going to start rising in the next 6 months

          • I definitely get the case for rates rising, however, CBs have already indicated they will engage in curve control to keep rates suppressed across the curve. The cost of doing that could be huge – particularly if punters continue to sell out if fixed income. And then inflation feedback loops and so on until, it goes bang.

        • Banana ManMEMBER

          Still plenty of jobkeeper and spare super money sloshing about. Lets see in 60 days.

      • BoomToBustMEMBER

        The big question here is what was the offer, just because they asked that price that doesnt mean thats what the offer was.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Gavin, you’ve gone quiet on the job front, too busy I guess, hands full. My mate has now taken a big hit to his remuneration by taking a more permanent @ $50/hr job assistant to kitchen installing in the Barangaroo tower (Australia’s tallest) .
        Very stressful his onsite machining / line boring previous work, although he will probably sneak out occasionally to do it

        • Another interview today, preparing now. Last week I was busy in Hospital since my little boy arrived into the world. I’m enjoying the break from work.

  4. It is extremely unlikely. Very wise words.

    Immigration and international students will be coming thru the borders well before 6 months time.

    Mortgage rates are the lowest ever and have plenty of room to move down. The author seems to confuse RBA rate with mortgage rates – which no longer have any relevance to each other.

    There is no theoretical economics definition of unemployment currently at play. See JK and JS – which will be extended and extended.

    Income levels are the highest they’ve been in history.

    Bankruptcies and insolvencies are the lowest in history.

    All levels and all sides of Australian government are singing from the same hymn sheet re RE.

    You’d have to be really dumb or ignorant to think that the combined elements of all levels of government, immigration, visa trade, money laundering, RE-RBA, strayan rusted on psychology, media propaganda, wealthy free-ride boomers, etc. will simply all fail and allow a fall in RE prices. Wake up and open your eyes.

    • Typical eutrophic thinking is the unshakable belief that absolutely nothing in this world will drop prices even when several other examples in other countries have shown that even when you throw everything at it, it still crashed.

      • “(of a lake or other body of water) rich in nutrients and so supporting a dense plant population, the decomposition of which kills animal life by depriving it of oxygen.”

        Eh?

        • lol, yeah spell check not working well (euphoric not eutrophic) but after reading the definition you could apply that to the housing market as well in an abstract way.

          • Eutrophic is probably the most on point word to describe the housing crisis for those who are priced out of the market.

    • DPM, euphoric thinking is that Australian RE prices have any chance of crashing. The chances are zero.

      Australia is different to any example you have in your mind of any other country. There are many factors as to why.

      I don’t own any Australian RE. I’ve been a bear since I started looking to buy in around 2012. I’ve studied it closely for years now.

      There are many different and unique forces at play and you can give me any scenario you like and will definitively illustrate to you that you’re wrong and prove you wrong.

    • Display NameMEMBER

      Banks cannot move mortgage rates much lower. They have already hammered depositors probably as much as they dare. Any lower and they will battle to make a buck. And insolvencies ? Well just wait. When you have a law they allows you to trade insolvent, companies will trade insolvent. Ends 1 Oct. So expect to see a deluge of insolvencies like we have never seen before.

  5. The game is over. If you weren’t born in the right decade to get in cheap then don’t expect to make money from it now. This next drop with high unemployment, a falling stock market and wage cuts is going to shake many people for the next 10 years. This a a classic double top with no support. I am very worried a lot of people wont see themselves threw this. The 4th family in my street is packing up and moving out of sydney. At a certain point its not about whether you think its worth buying a house or not, its the realization you cant afford it. And to those that were luck enough to have bought several years ago or more will sell. Most of them have to. Its their entire retirement

    • That 4th family will take their winnings and pay what the RE agent in the regional / coastal town says is not embarrassing and then push up / support prices there.

      The buyer of the Sydney place is a builder / developer who will divide the land size and sell to new immigrants. Or, it’s a specufestor who will rent it out to immigrants. Or, a Chinese money launderer. Or, several other things that will support prices. Time to wake up to the game, mate.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Yep, coastal towns are already at ridiculous prices but very recently have seen a minuscule decline in some instances.

      • The 4th family bought in 2017 over stretch and over leveraged and sold at a loss because they could not make IO payments while wages was reduced and they have the real prospect of losing their jobs. These are real people with real stories. People do and will lose more than they bargained for.

  6. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    I get that the gov doesn’t want RE to fail……they’ve proven it time and time again but it can’t be saved this time.
    The thing is too, they’d probably cop 20%, but once it gets there I expect it to go through that floor. People saying gov can save it have no idea what a depression is.

  7. Forrest GumpMEMBER

    I know of a case of where a wife is pregnant with diabetes brought on by the pregnancy, the husband lost his job due to the government imposed shutdown (in NSW back inn March)
    The couple are very poor, but genuine and sincere people. (Hubby from overseas)

    The couple continued to pay $50 rent of the $400 that was owed.
    That is even more than they could afford and they borrowed the money to pay that rent.
    The agent refused to negotiate
    Took them to the tribunal. (NACT)
    NCAT evicted them without even looking at their defense and issued them with an order to pay the $7000 outstanding rent.

    Legal aid has go on board and fired a shot across the ow of NCAT for being asswipes and not following the law. They are now appealing the case.

    The point Legal aid made was: its a moot point to issue an order to pay $7000 on an unemployed husband from a developing country with no money and no assets with a pregnant wife suffering from diabetes while also supporting a 12 month old child.

    Its noted that the landlord is an overseas investor that owns 4 properties in NSW valued at +$3 million (without searing the titles offices elsewhere in Oz)

    He was asked to submit the FIRB approval to confirm he is legally entitled to purchase property in NSW but failed to do so.
    The point being made: I can see this landlord pulling up stumps real quick and taking his $ and heading for somewhere more stable to earn an income from his properties. Im sure he’s not the only one thats gonna take a haircut on the rent.

    As noted above, the chances of him seeing his $7000…? Buckleys

    • As noted above, the chances of him seeing his $7000…? Buckleys

      Same as seeing the FIRB approval.

      Is the title ‘good’ if the transfer would have been denied but for fraud. Not saying there was fraud but there will be many out there that are in that category.

    • darkasthunderMEMBER

      Worth noting it won’t be the agent who refused to negotiate – it is always the owner’s call. The property managers I know can tell in 20 seconds who has a genuine case for hardship and who doesn’t, but they can only ever act on the owners instructions.

  8. HEM in Sydney is $546 a fortnight!!!! What drugs are they on, you wouldn’t survive in Grong Grong on that.

  9. What if the predictions of big falls are wrong?

    Its obvious to me that in a world of zero interest rates both Real Estate and Stockmarket owners are prepared to “hold”. They are holding with the expectation that a vaccine will be available in 12 months (its looking very likely), and economic recovery will start even before the vaccine is rolled out. Investors (the ones that can hold) are prepared to wait because there is no alternative (zero rates), and Government and banks are helping / telling them to hold also.

    There is a strong chance that everything will be on “extend and pretend” until a vaccine arrives in 12 months. Then the trillions of “new” global Gov Debt, together with renewed confidence, together with increase to velocity of money = prices go through the roof.

    Can this scenario be ignored or even completely discounted?

    • I’m glad you’ve said it because I’ve been thinking the same thing. I honestly think this could play out.. Interest rates in Europe were at 0% back when I left in 2013 and housing prices reignited from their 2012 crash and low in Ireland. I think the real problem for housing affordability is 0% interest rates on money for some many retail depositors it’s just not giving you any return.

      Therefore it’s pushing more money into hard assets with an income stream.

      • Gonzo Woyzeck47

        This is exactly what is going to happen. The ECB started QE even before 2010 and m1 has tripled since then and mind you, no significant inflation. The 20% of zombie companies in the EU are happy as a kid in the candy store, they will receive fresh money whenever they need it. The central banks will keep kicking the can down the road because unlike common believe, it has and it will keep working. The are many monetary-distortion tools left to use globally and locally to keep this going forever.

      • Then again – based on todays CorLogic “Daily” numbers, Melbourne prices will be 76% lower in 12 months from now – so what do I know!!

      • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

        Some of the smartest investors including Buffett and Hamish Douglas have said if rates stay this low shares are extraordinarily cheap.

        That probably translates to property too I fear.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          If property is inversely proportional to interests rates:
          Australia’s First Law of Property Prices
          As Interest Rates approach zero, property prices will approach infinity, at the rate of Money Printing.

        • Tiliqua scincoidesMEMBER

          At the very least there will be a floor for potential falls when money is so cheap. If people can afford the weekly payments they will buy for reasons that are not always rational. I think there will be a period of falls and then it will be back to normal!

      • Gav houses in Ireland havent recovered even with low rates..im only paying 1% on my mortgage there….Dublin has recovered rest of Ireland possibly recovered from -70% to – 45% from highs…still many way deep in negative equity after 12 years…unlikely to ever hit the highs of 2007 outside of Dublin again

        • Guess I was forgetting about property outside of Dublin. Some of those ghost estates in the middle of nowhere etc..

          • Most ghost estates knocked down now..or finished..just lack of jobs further away from Dublin..

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      There is no factual basis to the echo-chamber of “there should be a vaccine in 12 months or less”. Literally none. Unless you drink the Russian kool-aid.

    • innocent bystanderMEMBER

      you might be right except for the vaccine forecast.
      there probably won’t be an effective vaccine(ever).
      but you still might be right because all that is required is talk (more extend & pretend) of a vaccine, coming, soon, any day now

  10. Add to that all the SME / Micro businesses who have personal guarantees (leases and loans) secured by their residential properties and if judgement sought against them then will need to realise properties to pay up … MASSIVE potential

  11. Yeah yeah yeah…..blah blah blah…..I’ve read all of the prices will fall, prices won’t fall arguments until I’m blue in the face!
    I just want to know which one it will be, I have a strategy for both and can’t initiate either of them till something seems indisputable!!!???
    Come on already!!!!

  12. rob barrattMEMBER

    House prices ARE the Strayan economy and therefore are the ONLY issues on which votes will be cast for the 2 major parties. If you think either part would DREAM of doing anything whatsoever to spoil the party you’re on another planet. Expect:
    Taxs cuts to whatever level it takes on RE profits;
    No-doc loans to be allowed through with a nod and a wink;
    immigration ramped up with nominal 2 week stay in “patrolled” areas being required on entry;
    Print baby print…
    Reusa for PM
    As Richo so rightly said – “Whatever it takes”.