WHO: Vaccine “might never” come

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WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom:

On Friday, the Emergency Committee on COVID-19 met and reviewed the current pandemic.

It was a sobering moment coming six months on from when the Committee advised, and I agreed, that the outbreak constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.

At the time, 30 January, there were fewer than 100 cases and no deaths outside of China.

When the Committee met three months ago, three million cases of COVID-19 had been reported to WHO, and more than 200,000 deaths.

Since then, the number of cases has increased more than fivefold to 17.5 million, and the number of deaths has more than tripled, to 680,000.

In addition to the direct toll COVID-19 is having, the Committee noted the health impact that disrupted services are having on a range of other diseases.

That compounds what we already know about reduced immunisation coverage, cancer screening and care, and mental health services.

A survey of responses from 103 countries between mid May and early July found that 67 percent of countries report disruption in family planning and contraception services.

More than half of countries reported disruption in antenatal care services and more than a third of countries reported disruption in child birth services.

On top of the health impact, we have seen the damage COVID-19 has caused socially, economically and politically.

The Committee put forward a number of recommendations for countries to continue to implement to bring the virus under control.

These range from sharing best practice, to enhancing political commitment and leadership for national strategies and localized response activities driven by science, data, and experience.

We know from serology studies that most people remain susceptible to this virus, even in areas that have experienced severe outbreaks.

Over the past week we’ve seen several countries that appeared as though they were past the worst now contending with fresh spikes in cases.

However, we’ve also seen how some countries, regions or localities that had a high number of cases are now bringing the outbreak under control.

It’s not easy, of course. Strict measures may cause their own problems for delivery of essential health services, the economy and societies overall.

The Committee acknowledged that Member States have tough choices to make to turn the epidemic around.

But they were also clear that when leaders step up and work intensely with their populations, this disease can be brought under control.

We learn every day about this virus and I’m pleased that the world has made progress in identifying treatments that can help people with the most serious forms of COVID-19 recover.

The Committee recommended that countries engage in the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator, participate in relevant clinical trials, and prepare for safe and effective therapeutics and vaccine introduction.

A number of vaccines are now in phase three clinical trials and we all hope to have a number of effective vaccines that can help prevent people from infection.

However, there’s no silver bullet at the moment and there might never be.

For now, stopping outbreaks comes down to the basics of public health and disease control.

Testing, isolating and treating patients, and tracing and quarantining their contacts. Do it all.

Inform, empower and listen to communities. Do it all.

For individuals, it’s about keeping physical distance, wearing a mask, cleaning hands regularly and coughing safely away from others. Do it all.

The message to people and governments is clear: do it all.

And when it’s under control, keep going!

Keep strengthening the health system.

Keep improving surveillance, contact tracing and ensure disrupted health services are restarted as quickly as possible.

Keep safeguards and monitoring in place, because lifting restrictions too quickly can lead to a resurgence.

Keep investing in the workforce and communicating and engaging communities.

We have seen around the world, that it’s never too late to turn this pandemic around.

If we act together today, we can save lives, we can save livelihoods if we do it all together.

In Australia, we have the good fortune of being an island. Let’s eliminate the bastard and then go back to normal.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.