US virus cases falling, or just tests?

There have been state shutdowns of various degree to stop the second wave:

But there is also this:

The peaks coincide.

I can’t find material suggesting this is the result of the supply of tests being limited, despite President Trump declaring he wanted just that at his Tulsa rally. Perhaps Republicans took him at his word and have stopped getting tested.

Or the broader US citizenry has.

If the falling virus count is impacted by poor testing then we’d expect the death rate to stay higher as the case count falls. So far, that is happening:

But the death count lags to virus count by about a month so it’s too early to tell.

If the US is now registering false readings of virus spread, the risk of policy error at the macro level rises.