A couple of charts today make the point. Real interest rates have room to fall further:
Gold ETF flows are still very small:
AUM proportions dedicated to gold are still WAY down versus previous peaks:
Probably the best chart of all, DXY is still very high:
The lows of the GFC period are 24% below. I see no reason why DXY will not return there as the virus-hampered recovery takes years. Especially under a Biden Administration that will eschew Trump’s tariffs.
The last DXY bear market from 2002 to 2011 sank 42%. Gold rose 700% over that period.
It takes zero imagination to see gold moving to $3000 from here if DXY falls 20%, let alone further.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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