SQM Research has released stock on market data for July, which reveals an unusual lift in listings on the back of strong growth across Sydney and Melbourne:
According to managing director, Louis Christopher:
It is somewhat abnormal to record a rise in listings during the winter months. Normally, falls are recorded. This could have been generated by the lifting in restrictions over May and June, enticing sellers to the market. The year on year results for Sydney and Melbourne tell the story with significant rises, particularly for Melbourne. Such a reading normally is associated with a weakening market and no question, this is what is occurring in our two largest cities. Dwelling prices are falling. Not crashing to date, per se. But in light of the unprecedented restrictions placed in Melbourne, our expectations are that more prices falls in can be expected in coming months. Outside the two capital cities, the market is more balanced and indeed we are seeing an increase in demand for housing across regional Australia.
On Twitter, Louis Christopher elaborated with the following:
The rise in listings for the month was predominantly driven by new listings (listings under 30 days old), which rose by 18.3%.
He also gave a bearish assessment of the data in the below interview:
2 MINUTES WITH | Louis Christopher, SQM Research Founder
On a 20.7% increase in Melbourne property listings: “When I see listing rises like that it normaly indicates stock isn’t selling.”@SBSNews @louichristopher #ausbiz #onthemoneysbs pic.twitter.com/fvFGBxLyUR
— Ricardo Gonçalves (@BUSINESSricardo) August 4, 2020
More evidence of weakening fundamentals in these two cities.