Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker

Outside the ASX200, share markets are rising across Asia with S&P futures looking to put on even more record highs tonight as the USD weakens against everything. Gold jumped higher on the weekend gap open but is moderating going into what will be a thin London session, currently at a new weekly high at the $1963USD per ounce level but still looks weak here:

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is putting in a minor move higher, up 0.2% to 3411 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is trying to catch back the previous session losses, up nearly 0.5% to 25542 points. Japanese stock markets are also moving higher, the Nikkei 225 up 1.1% at 23139 points taking back half of Friday’s losses, as the USDJPY pair comes back after being heavily oversold post the Abe resignation on Friday:

The ASX200 is the odd one out, closing 0.2% lower at 6060 points while the Australian dollar looks like its peaked after its big surge on Friday night, but is still well above the 73 handle in what looks like a short term top:

Eurostoxx futures are up 0.7% with the S&P500 four hourly chart indicating to buy buy buy as always – because nothing can go wrong here hey?

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  1. NEW ZEALAND COVID ECONOMY: KEEPING THE SHOW ON THE ROAD WITH AN IRRESPONSIBLY FURTHER BOOSTED HOUSING BUBBLE …

    A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; Kiwibank goes lower, business confidence soft, deposit growth soars, loan growth weak, NZD firm, & more … David Chaston … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/news/106822/review-things-you-need-know-you-go-home-monday-kiwibank-goes-lower-business-confidence

    … extract …

    FAST (DEPOSIT) GROWTH

    Household deposits rose by $1.25 bln in July from June, continuing a strong rising tide that started in March. That is a gain of almost $12 bln in those five months, the most ever recorded in those months and almost double the GFC rise. The July levels involve a rise of 8.0% in a year and the healthiest in four years. And this is despite household term deposit balances falling -3.3% pa (and the most ever). All bank account deposits rose by almost $5 bln in July from June and are up more than $25 bln this the March to July period.

    MEAGER (BUSINESS) LENDING …

    In sharp contrast, bank lending only rose $600 mln in the same March to July period, up in July by only 3.3% year-on-year which is the slowest annual gain since year 2013. That means new bank deposits (including business, government and household) exceeded new bank lending by $24 bln placing heavy downward pressure on the interest rates banks are prepared to pay for a term deposit. Banks just don’t need the funds because loan demand has virtually dried up.

    … ONLY BECAUSE OF HOUSING (ARTIFICIAL BUBBLE LENDING) DEMAND

    The only area where lending is growing is mortgage lending, up 6.4% in July from the same month a year ago. (In Australia, it was up 3.1%.) Business lending growth has evaporated ( 0.1% year-on-year when it was 7.7% in July 2019) (Australia 3.7%.), lending to agriculture is shrinking (down -1.3% in July from a year ago), and consumer lending is in full retreat (down -10.2%) and shoved lower by the Buy-Now-Pay-Later sector. (Australia by -12.1%.) … read more via hyperlink above …

  2. Ex patient of mine said his Airbnb hasn’t had a spare day in 3 months after the weak hands went to long term rental. This country is so wealthy. Makes you proud

    • Yeah, I’m so pround that my childrens generation will be serfs to a few land owners and captalists. So proud the powerful few will be able to control every government and opposition and take the remaining wealth and power away from the 99%. Our robber barons make me so proud.

      • I’ve not got enough time for Airbnb or hassle like that. Gold n guns. And a patriot. 😉

        • Baked beans in ham sauce?

          In any case, sounds like you’re a rare medico with money-sense. Word is that people in medicine and law have zero financial acumen — a horrible generalisation, but there you go ..

        • “The best financial advice you’ll ever get is have one wife I reckon 🙂”

          Lol. true words!

    • thought the same when i read the article, also thought of it that 3k a week is a kind of ad to Jim more than than the franchisee

      Also can they go to court if majority on JK already??

    • They’ll be doing lots of pouring that’s for sure. Petrol most likely, before the ATO can get their paws into some poring. I won’t be feeling poorly for those pouring pored peoples, tho

    • The problem with ‘cash jobs’ is that they cannot be claimed for under any of the Govt (or insurance) reparations schemes.

      When you’re a business (like a small restaurant, for example) and you wish to sell it on, a potential buyer may not be that impressed by your official ‘books’ at which point you’re required to produce a parallel book or whisper quietly about the vast amount of cash you’ve not declared. Taking cash is a sword that cuts both ways.

      • Nope, cash in hand doesn’t exist any more, small business is about creating small worlds to inhabit and bring others along in this journey. It’s about sharing your vision.

    • Gripen for the win.
      https://youtu.be/QyD0liioY8E

      Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but I was at a something or other and I got to meet a high up airforce guy. Apparently he was so high up he had a say about what planes we throw cash at. So I asked him “Why not a Gripen?” and he regailed me with all of the supposed capabilities of the F-35. The side of the box makes it sound cool, yet it reminds me of The Homer, when all one really needs is a really well armed Corolla. Something that is reliable, doesn’t cost too much and you can have confidence in. So not a saab car, just a saab plane. Ok I stretched it out, and that analogy doesn’t really work but I think it makes enough sense to be forgiven. So I still wonder “Why not a Gripen?”

  3. Boring story warning. I left the property for the first time in 2 months today. After being in pain for a week I got some physio (I classified myself as urgent and it was required so that my underlying condition wouldn’t deteriorate, therefore it would be permissible to the authorities if they asked why I was out). I usually don’t get physio as it is expensive (can’t afford private insurance) and for my pain, not as effective as acupuncture. Anyhow 40 minutes, a double session, was approx $116 (it’s times like this when the echelon of the economy I inhabit gets shoved in my face, cos I sure as hell don’t get paid anything approaching that an hour, Our even in a 4 hour shift). An hour of acupuncture is $80 in Mornington. I had prepaid a series of group Pilates classes at the physio place in 2018 but not used them as I got too tired. I called last year to check they still had records of it and was told yep you’re all good. Asked today if I could use that credit and was told they had no record of it (they moved onto a new payment system earlier this year). Receptionist was lovely, we figured out the year I purchased it, and she checked their payments doc for the year which was 250+ pages. She found the payment and the boss ok’d me using that credit ($590!!!) for physio. So I spent money but didn’t!

    Another episode of me sabotaging the Aussie economy due to saving EVERY cent because of the housing bubble. I’ve got another double session on Thu, as I’ve been told to please use the credit up before too long (which is rather reasonable I think). My next spending conundrum is should I buy dad some beer from sailors grave brewery for fathers day? Or just cook a fancy meal?

  4. A friend has had their super skimmed. The first they heard about it was the letter their fund sent them to confirm that the money had been transferred. The fund told them that their’s isn’t an isolated incident. While they are unable to pin down exactly how it was done this is the working theory.

    The skimmers get something onto your computer. It’s dormant most of the time, coming alive when you visit the mygov website. Then it keylogs and sends the info back to the the merchants of dodge. Now that they have it they log in. Somehow getting past the double authentication. (Side note: another friend recently had his gmail hacked, and it had double authentication. It seems like that isn’t proving much of a challenge anymore.)

    Now in, they update the bank account details. Then they did my friend’s tax. Well lodged the auto-filled return. So they are getting the refund. Apparently they didn’t maximize the return with all the normal bogus claims that make a mockery of the system. Next, they applied for the $10k. And they got it.

    The moral of the story is, https://youtu.be/2c3ZnzS3xEc

    • Ouch, the 2 factor auth being bypassed is interesting. I wonder how they subverted it? I applied for $10k for 2019 and 2020. So nobody can request more from mine at least.

    • I’m not a security guy, maybe the following would work ?
      1. Detect and intercept access to MyGov. Insert a “proxy” or something that screen-scrapes MyGov and then presents it to the user, and puts any input from the user back into the real MyGov screen.
      2. Pass through the initial request for authentication (user/pass) both ways (ie: to the user, then back to the “real” web page, sniffing/saving the password on the way.
      3. Pass through the 2FA request to the user, wait for them to get the 2FA request and input the right sequence, then pass that through to MyGov *but present an error message to the user* (eg: “Wrong code, please try against in five minutes” or “Under maintenance, come back in 2 hours”).
      4. User thinks MyGov isn’t working and goes away, but proxy app now has a working login and can do whatever it wants.

      • Jdjdjjr Jcjddjdjd

        For not a security guy you described a “man in the middle” attack quite well. these hackers are crafty buggers.