Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker

Stock markets are generally have good sessions across Asia with gold moderating from its big correction previously, having not moved since the London fix last night at the $1933USD per ounce level, while silver is poised just below the $26 level, ready to breakout:

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is toying with a positive return, but only just with oscillation around the 3320 point level while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is slipping, currently down 0.2% to 25193 points. Japanese stock markets were the best in the region with the Nikkei 225 closing 1.7% higher at 23249 points, albeit with the USDJPY pair retracing back below its July support level at 106.70 (upper black horizontal line) as momentum reaches exhaustion levels:

The ASX200 was the worst off, not liking the latest job figures at all nor the recent earnings results with a fall of 0.6% to 6091 points.  Meanwhile the Australian dollar absorbed the unemployment print with little drama, as the small uptrend from the mid week low is stabilising here at the 71.70 level, with the Pacific Pesos still generally directionless for the last two weeks:

Eurostoxx futures are down 0.3% while S&P futures are basically treading water as USD weakens, with the S&P500 four hourly chart still showing growing price support although momentum is very slightly waning:

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Comments

  1. Buying a bunch of AMP stocks last week is looking like a bit of genius move (or a truckload of dumb luck).

    Now to work out when to sell!

  2. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    Is the continued disrespect for the office of the President of the United States of American really necessary Chris?

    • Especially when Europe has been no better in dealing with the Chinese introduced virus.

      Could you imagine if Trump nearly died on a ventilator like Boris the Johnson?

    • Chris does this to all POTUS. He did to Obama, he’ll do it to Biden if he gets in. 😉

    • Is it disrespect to the office or disrespect to the man. I think there is a distinction. On a personal level I think T is a failure as a human being even if I agree with some of the things he has done.

    • I doubt it’s the office, it’s the dereliction of duty currently in it. When the Americans can elect someone we can recognise as Presidential, I am sure that he will mock someone else. Especially as Trump is actively trying to discredit the election as he believes that he is unlikely to win … and then looking for a way to win if possible. Should Biden win, come Jan 20 his first task may well be to ensure he has the loyalty of the military … something which I thought would never be applicable to the USA.

    • Francis Awaritefe

      The guy was cheering on anti fa at the last US election and now is trying blame Trump for the rioting. The guy has no clue and needs that mirror himself.

    • No help from Chris required, Trump’s doing a bang up job of trashing the office on his own.

    • Was thinking whether CB hates Trump or America, maybe he’s too close to Xi Dumpling? The most putrid scum on earth today.

    • Hey Ermo are you hearing anything about tradie and tradie apprentice suicides in Sydney? We just had a fence red with the neighbours (permanent outdoor chairs set up at more than the recommended distance on both sides of the fence with our outdoor home-made portable fire contraptions: theirs is a small keg cut in half), the bloke of the house is a building teacher at TAFE here and despite being depressed AF due to not being able to see his kids and some worrying medical stuff, he is super sad about multiple student deaths by suicide. We didn’t ask about numbers but he said a lot of father son tradie businesses where their truck is mortgaged to the hilt and they were kinda only making it on a week to week basis financially are just dropping like flies. Very concerning stuff.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        The people in my orbit are mostly doing OK Pop.
        My Tradie mates are mostly small operators and even though work has slowed down a bit for about half of them, they still always have wkrk coming in,…for other half its still business as usual.
        Im nor in contact with many people who rely on large and multi story construction for their income anymore.
        I suspect you neighbors anecdotes might refer to those kinda tradies and apprentices. I imagin those guys will not only see their incomes wiped out but the kinda work they are competent at will largly disappear. Long bouts of unemployment await them and the large scale latoff are only just beginning.
        Time will tell how grim things get.

        • Thanks Ermo. I’m glad to hear you’re circle is doing ok. Finger’s crossed it’s not as bad as it seemed.

    • Locus of ControlMEMBER

      I’ve never really understood strong feelings, whether they be like or loathe, towards Trump. TBH, I’ve mostly found Trump mightily amusing. For one, he is beyond satire as he virtually is satire. It’s hilarious. What do you call that? Is that meta? Secondly, he’s the world’s greatest troll & people fall hook, line & sinker for it. Particularly the ‘snow flake’ segments of the population. Mightily amusing to watch. I shall miss him when he’s no longer president. For sure, I will be mightily less amused.

      • I’ve never really understood strong feelings, whether they be like or loathe, towards Trump.

        The damage being wrought with, at best, his implicit approval on American society and institutions is immense, and possibly catastrophic.

        Some people feel strongly about these things.

    • Where is Jacob?

      Maybe he’s being pinned to the floor of the shower by a firehose-esque flow!

      • I let him know it’s often the case there’s a reducer in the head and to remove it and he’s been quiet since

        Mayhaps he’s been enjoying lengthy showers? Also hasn’t Dubbo received heaps of rain ?!

    • The Trump administration is planning to make shower heads great again.

      Finally!

      you take a shower, the water doesn’t come out. You want to wash your hands, the water doesn’t come out. So what do you do? You just stand there longer

      Hynes said it would be “allowing Americans — not Washington bureaucrats — to choose what kind of showerheads they have in their homes.”

      in most places of the country, water is not a problem. They don’t know what to do with it. It’s called ‘rain.’ They don’t have a problem.

  3. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-10/long-campaign-to-get-teddy-sheean-victoria-cross-wwii-hero/12542708

    After an order to abandon ship, he helped to cut the ropes on a lifeboat, but he did not join his shipmates as they made their escape.

    Instead of getting into the boat, where he probably would have survived, he turned — unwounded —and then, making his way back up to the back of the ship, he’s shot and wounded.

    “He gets to the gun, he straps himself into the gun and then fires that gun at the Japanese aircraft.

    “He damages two of those aircraft, he’s shot and wounded again and either dies at the gun or from drowning as he’s drawn under the sea … with the sinking ship.”

    What this guy did. And we have people now who can’t deal with doing the right thing during a pandemic.

    • There was a guy on the wireless earlier this week saying that his dad was one of the people who Teddy saved. He was on the edge of tears saying that he wouldn’t have been born if not for Teddy’s bravery.

    • I’ve always thought the failure to acknowledge that young (18, FFS) bloke’s incredible gallantry and self-sacrifice has been a stain on this country’s honour.

  4. The world’s left handed people day!!!!!!!
    congrats harry and all all your left handed mice

  5. NEW ZEALANDS BORDER MANAGEMENT INCOMPETENCE … CONTINUED …

    … WHERE IS THE ACCOUNTABILITY ? …

    Coronavirus: Nearly two-thirds of Auckland’s COVID-19 border, isolation staff had never been tested a week ago … Michael Morrah … Newshub

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/08/nearly-two-thirds-of-nz-s-covid-19-border-isolation-staff-had-never-been-tested-a-week-ago.html

    Newshub can reveal that just one week before our current community outbreak, 63.5 percent of all border and hotel isolation workers in Auckland had never been tested for COVID-19. … VIEW AND READ More via hyperlink above …

    • Whoops … although speaking from my lock down in Melbourne, it’s a bit hard to throw stones. Yes they may have screwed up on quarantine but they are jumping on it faster and harder than we did. I guess we showed what happens if you don’t hammer it right quick.

  6. Hypothesis 1 Oz facing huge inflationary pressure due to foreign buyers of real estate
    Hypothesis 2 Oz facing huge deflationary pressure due to foreign workers taking cheap wages
    conclusion?

    • After dropping a couple of percent recently the Corelogic Sydney index has flattened over the last couple of weeks and may be about to start heading up again. Hoo noze?

      Melbourne, on the other hand has been dropping faster than a French rifle and looks like it will continue to do so. It’s interesting seeing the two markets diverge like this. They’re usually in fairly close lockstep.

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        Don’t think so based on how delayed and wrong the index is. This crisis only gets worse from here. But hey, I guess property goes up and the government and the vibe etc. etc.

      • “dropping faster than a French rifle” – one of the great calls, I will try to resurrect that one around the corridors at work…!

  7. Arthur Schopenhauer

    The Property Couch are complaining about ‘Spruiking fear’ and ‘doomsayers’. They sound a bit stressed.

    They are loving the MMT. Hock up and inflate, or open the immigration sluice gates.

    Crikey they are nobs.

    • cant remember who said it : Modern Monetary Theory is to economics what hydroxychloroquine is to COVID treatment

      • Don’t you find it interesting that the majority here and elsewhere, for decades thought everything was swell … then MMT showed up on their radar, not that it had been around for over 25 years, and then all a sudden heads start popping …

        • Yes! they popped here and popped there!
          Here popped and there popped and everywhere !
          E-I-E-I-O!

          • That’s because the real issue is corruption and crony capitalism. MMT in the hands of these evil doers will not help anyone, only further destroy the 99%. I don’t give a crap what monetary system is used, they will probably all work fine so long as there is no corruption.

            If we want to save the people, the economy, and western civilization, we need to destroy corruption and strip any person or group of the ability to influence policy.

          • Isn’t that exactly why they would try that? Trust me when I say no Government wants falling asset prices.

          • I did say sociopolitical administration did I not, yet as I have said before it can be re-tasked to transition to whatever economy we will need in the future. The idea that you remove that facility and things magically go back to some romanticized era or it makes the miscreants change their stripes all the sudden is not supported.

            We have two WW and all of anglophone history too refute that notion.

          • You might consider M – E(i) – M to be more relative to what your banging on about and not some intrinsic result of MMT.

            Apple is a hedge fund et al, not that any business with sufficient cash flow eventually transitions to a more financial entity due to market forces. Know of a few industrial construction mobs that have taken that road for example. It completely changes the company’s mind set in how it operates near and far term in delivering a good or service.

            Additionally I think this falls under the Gates Fictionless Capitalism paradigm.

        • The dominate sociopolitical group administrates it, yet most have zip clue of what entails, and regardless of monetary system you get the same repetitive results.