Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker

The trading week finally gathers pace here in Asia with the strong lead on Wall Street converting into broad gains across the risk complex.  Gold is trying to have another go at its previous record high, slipping a few dollars as the four hourly chart exhibits a bearish rising wedge pattern (or Italian man starting an argument) currently at the $1974USD per ounce level with silver having re-engaged above the $24USD per ounce level:

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is having a near scratch session, closing only 0.2% higher at 3374 points, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is playing catch up with a big session, up over 2% to 25044 points. Japanese stocks are also continuing their bounceback, with the Nikkei 225 lifting 1.7% to 22573 points to another monthly high, still being pulled along by a higher USDJPY pair, although it has retraced slightly in the late session to be just below the 106 handle:

The ASX200 is no longer showing any wobbliness (yes, that’s an official technical analysis term) finally re-engaging with the hopium buy addicts and soaring nearly 2% higher to be well above the  6000 point level, to close at 6037 points. Meanwhile the lack of action by the RBA in its latest meeting is seeing the Australian dollar lift off the floor to be back above the 71 handle after threatening weekly support:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are lifting, both up 0.3% or more, with the latter ready to make good on the BTFD crowd overnight, with the 3300 point level now under threat:

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  1. Any one seen TTW recently?
    Didn’t see a single post by him in few days.
    Earth to TTW do you copy?

      • I never looked at the photos. This house is on my walking patch so I noticed Sold sticker and thought I’d check it. Was curious what they paid for it but I doubt that data is available as I think it as bought off the plan.

        • So they took 10% less than advertised or $85K down on their April 2020 hopium asking price… any idea what they were asking in 2017?

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        When you see a house like that the first home buyer was an electrician, they cannot help themselves

  2. Anyone here have any experience/ can recommend HSBC’s serious saver account?
    Thinking of opening one for the 4 month bonus interest.

    Easy to use?
    Withdraw when time comes?

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Make sure you remember to take the money out at the end of the period. Otherwise the interest rate is really, really low.

    • Yeah mate. Did the 4 months late last year. No issues. Phone app GUI is old style but functioned fine. Transactions all went smoothly. Even had to ring them once and they were great to deal with/helpful.

      Edit: above experience was pre-CCP takeover of Hong Kong 😑

      • Cheers all for comments. Cant believe I even have to ask these questions

        But with the world going to pot and all…

    • run to the hillsMEMBER

      Opened an account last week, was a big hassle as the online process kept failing to work, I eventually spoke with someone and they really put me through the ringer with a ridiculous amount of probing questions such as where is the money coming from, what is my job and salary etc., I wanted to put in 200K. The whole experience very nearly led to me closing all my accounts at HSBC as their customer service is a bit of a joke and this wasn’t the first time they’d p’d me off. But who knows it may have just been a random AML check and you may not experience the same hassle.

  3. So the pandemic leave in Victoria is for ‘workers’. What an interesting term. Who is going to define that? Does it pick up cash in hand or not? Sounds like it still won’t be incentive enough for quite a few workers to get tested. Meanwhile a number of people have no income for six weeks. Think we’re going to have to dig down into another layer of society before the virus can be stopped.

  4. Any truth to the story that NSW will stop students and teachers who live on the Vic side of the border from crossing over for work/education?

    • What’s the point when they’re landing in Sh1tney by the plane load. Geeze that sounds familiar, Governments running an immigration racket.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      It’s really demonstrating how thin the economy is down here. There was 90% less traffic this afternoon. A significant portion of it was ‘angry tradie Ute’ driving. Quite a lot of frayed nerves about.

    • Parviz D says as tough as it is, it’s also quite empowering to see that each person can play a role in improving the overall health and well-being of the state:

      “And if at the end of all this that is what we take away and apply to building a better world, it will have all been worth it.”

      Dog I hope so! I’m sick of the status quo and business as usual. Imagine all the talent locked up doing the wrong line of work just for money. When they could be putting that talent into something more meaningful.

    • I reckon Christmas is the benchmark for a reasonable plan that is both long term and sustainable. Eliminate (a pipe dream in my humble), Sweden-lite (would need a change of message essentially tomorrow) or at least some indication of virus risk/societal opening we will settle on. Just ANYTHING but Dictator Dan at the daily presser admonishing people for how naughty they’ve been. Don’t do it by Christmas and it is;
      – extreme lockdown fatigue, already evident. In some way the fatigue accrued in the March/April one wasn’t worth the risk, but everything is 20/20 rear view…
      – seeing it all done bar the shouting in Europe, USA, Latin America but with Oz facing more 2021 dread.
      – the economic freight train hitting with full force. Housing and banking crisis and all that.

      Christmas in lockdown still jumping at shadows would be such a disaster…

      • MountainGuinMEMBER

        But by Christmas so many firms may not be able to open again and no one will open wallets with home prices falling. I think regardless of a govt lockdown, things will stay quiet as money will be tight for many.

        • It is about having an exit strategy.

          You can’t mock Sweden if we’re just doing Sweden in slow motion. With lack of long-term plan or exit strategy the society non-compliance is entirely predictable.

          • The idea is that Sweden in slow motion has the same economic crash as everywhere else (including Sweden) but far fewer deaths than real Sweden.

          • What makes our society magically immune that once it is all said and done, in the absence of a vaccine very quickly, our death rate would be somehow significantly different to theirs? Virus is gonna virus up to the point it finishes with warm bodies to mess up. There may be medical treatments that become apparent, but that is a gamble on an unknown. Until then it absolutely is Sweden v Sweden in slow motion.

            Surely there are also economic advantages too to being all done bar the shouting now (yes they could possibly get more waves, but watching like a hawk it is amazingly quiet) compared to long, protracted, painful rolling lockdowns which given the ridiculous state of our housing and private debt is just a tinderbox?

          • Play for time. Learn more about the virus. Improve treatments, possibly get a vaccine. Keep hospitals from getting overloaded so everyone who gets sick has a chance, no coin flips to see who gets the ventilator. Keep medical professionals from all getting sick at once.

            Plenty of reasons why slow motion gives us a better chance than full speedin’ Sweden.

          • But that is all the ‘flatten the curve’ old strategy that I was somewhat on board with. Even then, when weighed up the lockdowns aren’t smashing it out of the park when compared to the astronomical social/economic costs. They are timing differentials at best.

            This new let’s try to eliminate when it is impossible, crush everyone’s civil liberties, throw 120 years of Federation out the window, pretend human will can stop death strategy…Just seems utterly insane.

            We’ve drifted from my original point a bit; have a plan by Christmas. You can’t keep just extending mass societal lockdowns based on hope and not much else.

          • Doesn’t this just prove that the economic system we have in place is not fit for purpose? I mean we clearly need better structures if 100s of years of economic theories can be busted by a simple pandemic or virus.

            Perhaps it just shows we need a greater safety net so everyone can have good quality of life regardless of what job they do? If everyone could have the basics without such a sh1t fight to get them there would be no massive debt over hang and people would be able to handle this better.

            But it’s not just about deaths it is about permanent disability and how that will cripple many financially also.

          • Reusa had a date with the Queen of Sweden.
            She gave him things that be needin’ …

            – with apologies to Cab Calloway.

  5. Reliable rumour Border cops are being prepped to keep Vic sealed off from NSW till January. Hang in there Victorians, it might be a long haul.

    • NSW is stuffed I saw a video of a car meet in Sydney. Nobody wearing masks, all close contact etc.. if it’s across the border it’s already too late for NSW. I suspect you will be getting hard lockdown also.

    • Last summer I stopped one adult and 3 kids from finishing drowning (it was an intense summer, all three kids were drowning within a metre of the pool wall and should have been adequately supervised by an adult but weren’t). Somehow I sincerely doubt I’m going to get the opportunity to keep people safe in a pool before Xmas. If I do it’ll be a miracle and I might start believing in the flying spaghetti monster. I don’t want to think of all our regulars who need the pool to manage their precarious health, they must be going through hell. I also feel for all the special needs people who are now stuck in their care homes and I know they aren’t being audited like they used to be cos dad does that as a volunteer and its been stopped in Victoria for months. I should be on JobKeeper but I’m on jobseeker because of a silly exclusion. Now I have the concern that I could be kicked off jobseeker because the liquid asset test will be applied from end of Sept and I’m way over it but no one can tell me if it’ll apply to people already in the system, another challenge to deal with (and I will). Fortunately they’ve said that the mutual job obligations penalties are being waived for Victoria. I have a job, I’ll be stood up once the gov gives permission for pools to reopen and the council decides they can afford to burn money by reopening the centre. This world… Thank the flying spaghetti monster I’ve discovered chookherding, it’s the bright spot in my day letting the chooks out and seeing them enjoy their environment😄🐔

      I have a friend renting a studio apartment in Hellbourne cbd, wfh in a stressful long hours job. She reckons she won’t see anyone socially until 2021. It’s going to be an interesting time. But I really feel for the bushfire survivors this has to be the cruelest thing fit them, being forced to isolate just when they need quality interaction to begin to process their trauma

      • We’ve been pretty lucky with the dodging & weaving, only a few cases from Ruby Princess & stamped out fairly quickly – god only knows how considering infected ones were knowingly wandering the streets & shopping. Considering the recent Holiday infestation, we were lucky again with only 3 cases. My sister’s family were nailed down from the BBay cluster, but got lucky even though my Niece was working all 3 nights at the Soldiers club. All pretty bored though, some haven’t been out of the house more than a dozen times since Christmas thanks to the dual threats (some are still living in slapped together shanty style lean-to’s). No one’s got anything to talk about, & we’re seeing what Gav sees & are wondering how long it can last. Lucky we’re in a less packed part of the country & oldies & immuno compromised are staying home. Our Retailers are hand sanitizer Nazi’s too which may well be helping – City blowins are remarking on the sense of community responsibility & distancing compared to where they come from – there’s some pushy, entitled warts that don’t care still & some younguns sneaking around, but they’re a minority fortunately. End of the day being out of the city is an advantage….. & we’re not swamped by Ulleh’s.

        • I hope your good luck continues. I’m not surprised to hear that people there are being sensible, that tends to be the case outside of urban areas, and is one reason why I’m so keen to move into a more rural area. Yeah the boredom will be an issue, Mum was asking how much longer this was going to go on for and Dad and I just laughed at her. I told her she’s got to start thinking about introducing some new activities into her life, though she is being really good doing multiple yoga and pilates classes a week via zoom, so she will be fitter and stronger which is not bad for a 73 year old. I’m fitter than I was at the start of this, and I’ve improved my underlying health through fasting, so at least some progress is being made.

          • Fasting helps my Arthur too….. Have you tried Wim Hof’s methods? There’s enough on YT without buying his course.

  6. Wework Is broke

    NSW people will learn from the mistakes the VICs made. They will choose NOT to get tested if feeling unwell, thus escaping self quarantine and keeping new case count artificially low. No one will risk forced self quarantine at the expense of potentially their income and mental well being. VICs are the chosen guinea pigs and I wish them good luck in their forced prisons but the longer term mental and financial devastation will utterly ruin more lives and destroy more families than the short term increase in boomer body count. Australia has always been bad a trading long term benefits for short term costs.