Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker

A very mixed start to the trading week here in Asia with share markets all over the place given the strong lead on Wall Street combined with the inversion of strength in the USD.  Gold is having another go at its previous record high, pushing ever higher as it tries to make its way to the $2000 level, currently at the $1974USD per ounce level with silver also re-engaging above the $24USD per ounce level:

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is having a solid up day, closing 1.7% higher at 3367 points, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index continues its divergence to slip 0.8% further down to 24397 points. Japanese stocks have bounced back from their bad Friday session, with the Nikkei 225 lifting over 2% to 22195 points to a two month high, pulled along by a much higher USDJPY pair that is holding on just below the 106 handle after its big bounce:

The ASX200 is still wobbly, falling a few points to remain well below the 6000 point level, closing at 5926 points as a softer Australian dollar helps calm the losses from the expected fallout of the Victorian shutdown, with the Pacific Peso barely hovering above the 71 handle and on weekly support:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are somewhat flat, with the latter down a few points to hold on to the solid gains from Friday night, still wanting to burst through resistance at 3270 points:

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Comments

    • +1
      It just goes to show how effective United Front elite corruption/coercion tactics are.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      A kid from Brisbane,Australia is banned from the campus of The University of Queensland…because of his views ….Straya 2020 ……….
      Hard to believe I know ….but it will get worse ……unless Straya finds a backbone ……BTW where do we make backbones these days ?

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Probably China – remember Straya doesn’t make anything anymore and especially something as fundamental as backbone?

        • TailorTrashMEMBER

          Indeed ….backbone requires such ingredients as resolve ,commitment ,hardness ,resilience and hard work ….not the sort of thing you find in cheap red dirt ..( that is turned into aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships ) …Straya was a nice idea ….. pity they never took it further ……

      • Fear not — we do actually live in a free country and Unis really are hotbeds of anti-establishment sentiment! :/

        Anyone notice how most Uni students are just drones these days? Parroting establishment (progressive) thinking and plodding agreeably toward their career goals. Where are the riots and scenes of police using tear-gas on angry students that were regular occurrences in the ’60s and ’70s? Things are bad right now – very bad – yet this Orwellian fug seems to have rendered them all conformist, apathetic turds. The next few years are going to be a big wake-up call for the younger generations — they have been coddled to the point of making Albo look an action-man.

        • TailorTrashMEMBER

          I fear the bright young things are beyond redemption
          ……I sent my Australian Children to the “best “ most expensive private schools …and they graduated to
          the “ best “ ( Chinese funded) universities that this place can offer ……..and now I need to button my lip at dinner lest I say something quite unacceptable… as I’m prone to do …….

          Not sure who is more educated …..me or my kids ….guess time will tell ……

          • There is no better an education than in the university of life. Idealists are useless because ideology is meaningless in the real world.

          • Definitely. But where’s the rebellion gone?

            It’s like it’s been sucked out of the youth by some insidious force.

            The youth don’t even ask questions anymore – they just nod dutifully.

      • robert2013MEMBER

        Are you an employee Mr Trash? When was the last time you contradicted your boss let alone oppose the “leaders” of your work organisation? It’s not an easy thing to do and the older you get, the higher the stakes. We get backbones when we have nothing much to lose. If covid wipes out enough investment earnings you may find people get organised again.

    • MountainGuinMEMBER

      And only this morning did we see media points from UQ on how they support free speech. Despicable. Cease all taxpayer support !

        • Banana ManMEMBER

          They weren’t sucker bait, they were all laundering money in to us dollars, break off some bread to ccp, everyones a winner.

      • yeborskyMEMBER

        Genuinely like the transposition of your words there. I’m a long time fan of backing speakwards and spooking in speanerisms and generally wurning my turds around, often creating confusion among those who can wordly underhard a stand I say.

        Spellchecker was a bit of a prucking foblem there. 🙂

    • Lol all that dirty Chinese money that isn’t laundered in Macau will flow straight to Australian real estate.

    • Buying Macau casino stocks is the closest to going long on chinese corruption you can get. No one gambles as easily as someone who has not earned the money the hard way.

    • Hmmm well sounds like people are barred from new positions trading products linked to the metals anyway (not barred from buying physical gold etc as such)

      … could be true but source may have a vested interest there…?!

    • And so it begins …

      Every time there’s pressure on the monetary system, people turn to PMs and the authorities are forced to act.

    • Hyper-inflation is certainly on the cards, but I suspect the modern economies will act before things get that far.

  1. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    I actually hope this lock down in Vic works as it will mean immigration can fck off for as long as possible and we can all get back to doing stuff, oh yeah and the ponzi dies with the virus 😆😆😆😆😆

    • migtronixMEMBER

      You can rest assured Dan is doing this precisely to try and open the spigut. That’s why Slomo is onboard.

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        Is Slomo on board so as to get this under control in 6 weeks so he can still taper job keeper seeker just in time

    • Banana ManMEMBER

      Hopefully. Fingers Crossed! I can’t wait to see what they pull out next though. Unicorn fart credits worth 30 bitcoin ea.

  2. migtronixMEMBER

    “They include a man in his 60s, two males and a female in their 70s, two males in their 80s and five females and two males in their 90s.”

    Remember that when they tell you they’re doing this *for* everyone rather than *to* everyone.

    • I think there is always a market for debt securities. If a few banks pull out there’s more to take their place – debt is still cheaper now than whenever Adani initially financed Abbott Point so should be relatively easy to pay a little bit over odds for the new debt and still come out financially ahead.

      If I was them I would be looking at trying to get some 15 year bonds in place to take this issue off the table for my tenure in management ….

      • Yep, there’s always a market for anything — just depends on the price.

        I remember raising money for an Indian outfit who were trying to fund the buyout of a steelworks — got the deal done at 14% (from memory) with warrants attached. The venture failed within 12 months. What a fiasco.

  3. Image at the top is an example of when “pod people” try to meme.
    Liberty (according to google):
    1. the state of being free within society from oppressive restrictions imposed by authority on one’s way of life, behaviour, or political views.
    2. the power or scope to act as one pleases.

    • FYI Society (according to google):
      A society is a group of individuals involved in persistent social interaction, or a large social group sharing the same spatial or social territory, typically subject to the same political authority and dominant cultural expectations.

    • Its not clear to me the point you are making but i assume its something along the lines that people have been conditioned to accept government control and removal of their innate rights and freedoms.
      ” from oppressive restrictions imposed by authority ”

      oppressive adjective
      burdensome, unjustly harsh, or tyrannical:
      causing discomfort by being excessive, intense, elaborate, etc.:

      requiring peoples to wear masks during a pandemic so that that everyone elses freedoms are not impinged upon by being dead, does not fit the definition of oppressive.
      Its just common sense, and empathy for your fellow citizens.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        it’s soveriegn-state language. Just like the Karen in Bunnings “It is my right, as a living woman, to do whatever I want”

        see, your immediate assumption is that she’s a “fake left feminazi” (whatever that is) but it’s actually language from the libertarian, soveriegn-state propaganda.

        • You mean: back to people not understanding what YOU would like them to do?

          Real question here, skip: Would you defend to the death the right of someone to hold a view that you disagreed with?

          • Actually, for all his foibles, skippy is probably one of the last people on mb that you would ask that question of.

          • For you to mangle a well known philosophical precept into what you just said is why I loathe what you call thinking.

            https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/liberty-positive-negative/

            I made only reference to subject matter and did not add anything which might be construed into what bias knee jerk just popped out of your mind. Its a dynamic subject matter that is not steady state due to changes in its environment E.g. if you want to risk death your free to do so, albeit as long as you don’t take others with you.

            Anywho people like you remind me of my religious study days, going from neoclassical to AET, you just scraped off the maths and physics metaphors to return to the good old days ….

          • C’mon, skip, level with me now: have you really studied AET? And if you did, did you really understand it?

          • I spent years over at NC with others unpacking its historical roots as well its philosophical bent and then its involvement in setting up neoliberalism. Quite aware of its splintering into about 5 basic groups post GFC from extremists to moderates and the missing Von thingy out of the blue.

            What exactly is neoliberalism, and where did it come from? This volume attempts to answer these questions by exploring neoliberalism’s origins and growth as a political and economic movement.

            “Although modern neoliberalism was born at the “Colloque Walter Lippmann” in 1938, it only came into its own with the founding of the Mont Pèlerin Society, a partisan “thought collective,” in Vevey, Switzerland, in 1947. Its original membership was made up of transnational economists and intellectuals, including Friedrich Hayek, Milton Friedman, George Stigler, Karl Popper, Michael Polanyi, and Luigi Einaudi. From this small beginning, their ideas spread throughout the world, fostering, among other things, the political platforms of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan and the Washington Consensus.

            The Road from Mont Pèlerin presents the key debates and conflicts that occurred among neoliberal scholars and their political and corporate allies regarding trade unions, development economics, antitrust policies, and the influence of philanthropy. The book captures the depth and complexity of the neoliberal “thought collective” while examining the numerous ways that neoliberal discourse has come to shape the global economy.”

            On top of all that one has to consider the views of influential AET thinkers changing as time and space moves forward and as a result so does their opinions E.g. Ordoliberalism and now the endless game of government blame. I guess its sorta like the chamber commerce in the states being touted as a small business advocacy group when its nothing of the kind, but as long as the unwashed drink the kool aid that establishes the philosophical musings [narratives] which justify the actions of the BSD its all good.

            All that aside – its all build on “normative assumptions” [deductive] and not much use in times like these which completely diverge from those assumptions. Seems some are more concern at the moment about how to stop diverging too far away from the past, post corvid, rather than dealing with it to preserve “life” and liberties.

          • Skip, how do you square the fact you’re claiming a link between AET and neoliberalism, when Keynesian and monetarist economics are what support the current world order? You can’t have it both ways.

            AET and Keynesian economics are polar opposites

          • I gave a direct example that points out historical events and the best you can do is insulate?

            Any semblance of Keynesian economics ended in the early 70s with neoliberalism becoming dominate, Milton’s Monetarism went poof after QTM was shown to be false and then ended up as quasi monetarism of today.

            Hate to break it to you but there is a preponderance of books filled with facts about AET involvement is setting up neoliberalism aka the market is god. For a good time you should look up Bill Blacks encounter with Murry …

          • Skip, if you fail to acknowledge that economics today is utterly dominated by Keynesian theory then there’s no point continuing this discussion — I doubt there’s a Uni course in existence anywhere in the world that would even breathe the name von Mises, much less actually teach AET. You are delusional – or you’re trolling.

      • It’s just standard Libertarian jibber-jabber.

        The laws they agree with are what they consider all that’s necessary to run civilisation.

        Anyone thinking a single additional law might be required is an oppressive dictator infringing on their freedumbs.

        Never mind even the slightest application of real life scenarios destroys the whole thought exercise.

        Extremists can only conceive extremes.

        • Ah, smithy, MB’s favourite ‘progressive’ — I wondered when you’d make an appearance. What thoughts has the HuffPo instructed you to think today?

  4. Another one got sold. Was listed couple of weeks into the lock-down. Sellers must have got lucky as buyers must have been worried because of all the talk that prices may go down rushed and paid in order not to miss the top. fck me.

    I think this is the one.. 100m from high voltage power lines and 100m from very busy and noisy road. Location, Location.
    https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-middleton grange-133360038

    • Mate, property is absolutely flying here in SE QLD. High end might be struggling a little bit but middle of the road is bread and butter for NSW migrants. Cheap as chips.

        • Wish I knew – maybe it’s a lag effect i.e. all this has been in train since last year.

          But the lack of transactions this year should bring all this to a juddering halt. (Hopefully)

    • truthisfashionable

      Right around the corner from EZ Pass driving school, AY Mate Driving School, and Matthew Driving School… Best keep the kids off the street in that area

      • same, not my cuppa either but I am noticing this crap is still selling. Yes, they did sell $30k less than what they could have gotten pre-covid but that is still $600k more than what that thing is worth.

  5. Some anecdata. The son of a friend was studying in the US at Harvard, which is a pretty hard place to get in to. He’s just bailed out and returned to Australia on the basis that the US is fcked up and dangerous due to virus spread and widening social unrest, and not a good place to be. He didn’t feel safe there. Something I never thought I’d ever hear, but there it is.

    • You’re obviously the typical America hater we all hear about here

      /sarc

      The lead in to November is going to be interesting – must check if The Circus is on Stan

    • I suspect the social fabric might be close to absolute destruction over there — but I haven’t been there in a while, so, who knows. A mate, who lives in San Fran is putting a brave (progressive) face on it.

      The worst I ever saw it was when I went to New York in the early ’90s — homelessness was out of control and visitors were advised to not use the Subway at all. Being young, my mate and I ignored that advice and I remember just seeing ‘bodies’ on subway platforms (homeless seeking warmth). When I went back a few years later the homelessness problem had miraculously been ‘cured’ — goodness knows what Rudy Giuliani had done with all these people, but the place improved out of sight from then on.

    • Whenever I visited I always felt things were on a bit of a knife edge. Huge divide between lower, middle and upper classes. It always made me feel a bit on edge, even though a lot of Americans are super friendly and generally warm.

      The homeless issue was confronting, but having said that the problem has been growing in Melbourne in the last 2 decades, so we are on a similar trajectory, just a bit behind.

      So far I’m surprised we haven’t had more rioting on the streets from young people here. They are suffering from the downturn more than most. But also benefiting via JobSeeker / Keeper. So maybe when that ends, the fireworks begin?

    • I just figured out why you’ve been posting so much lately – despite all your claims to the contrary, you’ve locked yourself down to preserve your health. No relations parties, no contact with the outside world, sitting safe and secure in your fort of toilet paper. You sad sad old man.

  6. this could be completely wrong but here is one scenario where price of gold may fall couple of hundred dollars before exploding up.
    We start to see some positive data from EU and China as we do and that leads everyone to go 200% into equities and sell gold on so they can pump Tesla to $25k per share.
    Sounds crazy but in this irrational world nothing’s crazy.

    • Tesla at $100 a share is lunacy — right now we’ve past ‘crazy’ and are headed to meth-fueled deranged.

      Gold can definitely correct but there’ll be dip-buyers all over the joint. This time next year $2,000 will be a distant memory (never to be seen again, no matter what H Dent thinks)

        • For choice, I’d say much higher – but there are no guarantees. Right now, the crisis means endless spending by Govts / printing by CBs which means higher gold prices. Part of the problem with being straya-based is that gold will drag the AUD higher. In the next week or two we should see a rebound for the USD though, before resumption of USD weakness. The election ensures promises of a big spending splash (and more printing) so USD weakness is baked in for a while.

          Medium to longer term my base case is endless stimulus because, the advanced economies are discovering that, in an over-indebted world there is no such thing as giving the economy a ‘coup de whiskey’ and watching it blossom. The over-indebtedness needs to be addressed if there is to be any progress and as long as the debts remain the money printing needs to continue.

      • thinking same. I believe gold will be $3k by Christmas but we might see $200 drop before it gets there and that is all I need. People panic and miners will fall at levels when they were trading when gold was $500 lower.
        Hope that fall happens sooner rather than later though.

        • I’d be very happy to see a $200 fall – corrections are healthy. Parabolic moves are not.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Think of all the old people’s lives you are prolonging with your sacrifice! Love what you are doing for them and what all young people continuously do for them. You exist to make their lives easy. Enjoy!

  7. Banana ManMEMBER

    I actually made a bit of an off cuff racist remark this afternoon, and I apologised, but I’m not super sorry. Where i’m from we take the piss out of the new blokes, whether that be the first year apprentice going for the long wait or being gaffer taped… It’s the crucible. Tough love. All the races have different awesome qualities; the dudes I may have disrespected this afternoon came up with algebra, and can grow the living sht out of weed and opium, just can’t get their surface to air missile guidance systems super tight just yet. Most of those blokes in the middle east know a good car and can drive them as well and I respect that.

    • I am GrootMEMBER

      The accusation of racism seems to get thrown around a lot these days by people who don’t understand what it actually is.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      As a young man working on high rise construction in Sydney …(when such a thing was a novelty indeed) …I remember being held out over the end of a 20th
      floor balcony by the good ole boys from the trades….
      I had to place my trust in the decency of the common man ……..in this case it held …….not sure it is always so …I was lucky I guess ……wouldn’t want to do that today …YouTube Instagram and all that …

  8. Ulrike Meinhof

    Where I grew up, there used to be a sign on a Tram which ran for a couple of km’s along side a fast flowing river, the sign indicated that it was illegal to ride the tram nude, however it went on to justify the rule by rationalizing that you couldn’t have a ticket if you were nude. (you see, people used to jump in the river and float down stream and catch the tram back, well it wasn’t illegal to swim nude so naturally some of the tram riders were nude)
    Of course people felt this rule was silly so they started riding the the whole 20 km length of the tram route nude but with a ticket. Unfortunately the legalese of the rule kind of implied that it was legal to ride the tram nude with a ticket. Unfortunately for the writers of this rule the tram went through the downtown area where tourists were suitably shocked …(whatever happened to FKK?)

    I mentioning this because curfews on Adults are about as sensible as posting rules about riding the tram nude, nothing good can come of this.

    • Banana ManMEMBER

      It’s unconstitutional like rego. But shut the fck up and do what you’re told. And Toll roads; yeah, that’s not part of your rego. shut up.

  9. Fkcken hell.

    $1500 for temp visa holders who need to isolate for two weeks.

    You can receive it multiple times. You don’t actually need to get COVID19 to receive it.

    Well it’s important to pay potentially infected people to stay home and not go to work… but this is massively rortable. Temp visa holders just need their mate with the Bat Sniffles to claim he had close contact with all of them and hey presto. Paid iso for the whole mob.

    https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/pandemic-leave-disaster-payment-for-sick-isolating-aussies-amid-coronavirus-crisis-c-1212983

    And why do they keep calling temp visa holders “Aussies” and “Victorians”? WHEN THEY AREN’T.

    Fark me.

    • I am GrootMEMBER

      After decades of allowing an ever more fractured society of disparate interests to develop, this is what we end up with.

      In the unlikely event that our leaders apply the intellectual rigour necessary to formulate a sound policy response, their efforts are still undone by a complexity which will always leave loopholes for those motivated and not so socially minded individuals to exploit.

    • I know you work there A2 but ya gotta love Gubmint – always making the right decisions!

      (With other people’s money, it’s easy as …)

      • They sure didn’t ask my advice on this one! Lol

        I do occaaaaaaaisionally suspect that people who work at Treasury (I don’t) are rather wet behind the ears because their models presume everyone acts in a certain nice way and they have no idea about how real humans in the real world behave (ie how easily their dopey schemes can get rorted).

        • In comparison to the rorts at the top its a pittance … then some bang on about stealing.

          • A-ha. If everyone’s stealing, it’s all good!

            Problem is, skip, stealing from a private sector firm is stealing from shareholders and this invites jail-time. There’s a difference. Actions and consequences.

          • Nothing surprising when one considers property in a neoliberal setting, remember I said its a rehash of an older world view.

  10. Banana ManMEMBER

    My membership is due for renewal, but im going to go full euro austerity angelina merkin style. It’s been fun. Im going to be on an inflateable popping off rounds for my bday aug 14. Get youself to a trap shooting range near youself and celebrate w me.

      • Banana ManMEMBER

        yee boi.
        swampy rvgc opp lismore dump
        seq boys mt grvatt
        melbs tell’m ur going for a job interview echuca
        other states already know