Lockdown tightens as VIC nears 12,000 COVID-19 cases

Victoria’s COVID-19 data has belatedly been released, with the state recording 429 new infections, down from yesterday’s 671:

There were 13 more deaths – the equal deadliest day so far – taking the state’s toll to 136. 1,089 active cases are in aged care facilities.

There are now 416 cases in hospital in Victoria with 35 in ICU.

The curve is hopefully peaking in Victoria, but it is still too early to tell:

 

By comparison, NSW recorded only 13 new cases and is doing a far better job keeping the rate of new infection under control:

Victoria now has 6,489 active cases, 95.9% of the nation’s total. This compares to 250 active cases in NSW (3.7% of total):

Since the pandemic began, Victoria has recorded 11,937 COVID-19 cases, more than triple NSW’s 3,797:

Victoria’s rate of infection has hit 180 per 100,000, way above NSW’s 47 per 100,000:

Meanwhile, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced a huge list of businesses forced to close from midnight on Wednesday including:

  • most construction sites
  • some manufacturing plants
  • some administration
  • car dealerships
  • discretionary retail

However, essential service staff and supply chain workers will continue to operate in full, including:

  • supermarkets, grocery stores and liquor
  • petrol stations
  • pharmacies
  • banks
  • post offices
  • medical related services.
Leith van Onselen
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Comments

  1. reusachtigeMEMBER

    I think the reason why people beg for Lock. Us. Down is because they have lost faith in Jesus Christ, our Saviour. Without faith in the Lord people need some direction and this gives them that and hope. But God is where our faith should really be if we wish to survive this. Not in the false profit of Lock. Us. Down!

    • Cardinal Pell is our role-model – he was locked-up, not down, but he kept his faith in lawyers, judges & money and now he is free, free to be locked-down!

    • Lockdown is our new Lord and Saviour … Andrews, Palaszczuk, McGowan, Marshall … are Apostles while Berejiklian plays Judas Iscariot … she is going to betray our Lord Lockdown at the first opportunity

    • billygoatMEMBER

      Danny Boiy is a prize cH un TTTTTTTTTT
      anyone who buys the lock down, mask skam, wash your hands and curfew is part of the problem
      My 2 cents
      Could give a rats a$$ for the panicked folk running around ignorant & muzzled.
      If you’re that worried stay the F at home and lock yourself in without the BS walk the dog etc.
      Folk are dumb as the dog ship they scoop up.
      shame Melbourne shame

      • I agree, while covid can cause a lot of damage, it is nowhere near high enough to justify putting people under what is effectively house arrest. The enthusiasm with which people discard there rights over the slightest threat to their well being is rather depressing.

    • The SA premier is full on devotee of the Lock Us Down faith – puts new restrictions on SA because some Victorians might get over the border…now that guy has got to be a priest in Lock Us Down!

    • Reusa, looks like you’ll have to dust off the old full body condom for the second time this year.

    • Tassie TomMEMBER

      “This little light of mine … I’M GONNA LET IT SHINE”

      Attributed to Scott Morrison, Hillsong Cult Convention, February 5th 2020

      • SoCalSurfCreeperMEMBER

        For a door opener / dirt whore it’s always a good time to pay them a commission. So there’s never been a better time to buy… or sell!

    • tripsterMEMBER

      A good thing this time around, it will allow for some price discovery, banning housing sales would have been like suspending trading on the ASX.

  2. The extremely restrictive COVID isolation policies have basically hamstrung healthcare. COVID+ doctors and nurses are not allowed to work, in some cases even if they came in contact with a positive patient.

    This was the hidden upside of loose Lockdown Sweden, UK, USA. Doctors/nurses got a mild dose at a restaurant instead of a massive dose at a COVID ward.

    Plus evolutionarily, if the only way the virus can get out is to get its host very sick, that encourages it to be as virulent as possible.

  3. Ukraine fnMEMBER

    So how many tradies/builders live near (5km) from their job sites? Are they going to get exemptions to travel to sites to work?
    Even though the amount of tradies on site is reduced might help with control of spread the Russian Roulette of choosing who can and can’t work won’t be easy.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Nah, you can travel further to your place of work.

      If not, I’m in trouble and am going to be here all day, every day. Just like an office worker.

      • Ukraine fnMEMBER

        All the best MB wouldn’t wish what is happening to you and everyone in VIC on anyone.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Meh, only thing I’m missing is training nights with my crew and an occasional round of golf. But I’ve got my running tracks and have mapped out a one hour ride within my 5k radius.

          If you live a simple life being forced to live simply isn’t an ordeal.

          • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

            “If you live a simple life being forced to live simply isn’t an ordeal.”
            amen brother

          • Spot on. I live a pretty frugal life with a few interests that I pursue with passion. Apart from being overrun with work life is largely unchanged for me.

  4. >> The curve is hopefully peaking in Victoria, but it is still too early to tell
    How many effen times do you have to be told that the jump in numbers come on wed and thurs?
    What is 427 compared to last monday is what you should be asking.. pretty sure last monday was in 200s.

  5. That security guard bonking that fellow sub-continental in the quarantine hotel is proving to be the most expensive s_ck in the history of Australia.

    • Mr SquiggleMEMBER

      “Dan Andrews has taken us to Stage 4′

      No he hasn’t, July was really just Stage 2 + mandatory masks.

      Everything he’s announced looks more like Stage 3 + masks (plus alot of political noise and propaganda). It doesn’t sound like stage 4 to me.

  6. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    if a business doesn’t have job keeper how do they pay their employees or rent or anything lol 6 weeks of this is going to end in carnage

    • If a business doesn’t have jobkeeper there’s a strong possibility they were paying their employees in cash, pre-covid, and they’ve already shut down. At least in Canberra they have.

  7. It took 14 days to double, up a bit from 12 days needed for the previous doubling
    Still hard to say it’s peaking but it will definitely peak withing a week or two – epidemics peak in 4-8 weeks from a well established base (even flu and other respiratory infections have similar behaviour regardless of measures)

    it’s a bit hard to directly compare because of different and changing testing regimes (that was dumb thing to do) as well because of aggregation data (combining case numbers for various geographical locations that had starts at different times) but it’s a fairly good rule and often used by epidemiologists prior to this testing craze.

    peaks were fairly quick in Europe but that’s probably because they started with testing late so initially they were discovering cases at much faster rate than the virus actually spread.

    My guess for Victoria is that it will peak in a week just so that Andrews cannot claim the victory LOL

    • ChinajimMEMBER

      Why do you bother? Seriously, no one cares what you think and all your efforts trying to find sources to back up what your point is are a waste of your time. What you think, and what you prescribe, is having zero influence on what the organs of state power are doing to deal with this situation. State decision-makers have specialist medical advice that is the best available to assist them. It seems likely that they are better resourced than your attempts at Googling and looking up Pubmed etc., and their advice is not filtered through some kind of ideology as yours apparently is.

      Save yourself a lot of time and headache. The world is as it is. It’s fairly clear what course this nations leadership are on to deal with this. What you think doesn’t matter. Do you make investment decisions based on what you think aught to happen or what you think “they” aught to do? Or do you make decisions based on what the world is, regardless of whether you agree with it?

      In one of your earlier posts (there are so damned many of them I’m not going to bother to try to find it) you said something along the lines of “we could be going on about our business and living with blah blah blah…” Yeah? Well we could get waken up by butterfly wings on a bed of roses sandwiched between our multiple lovers to bathe in sunlit pools fed by fragrant spring-water. But the world isn’t like that (Reusa excepted)

      The sooner you stop banging on about what aught to happen and the sooner you stop crapping all over the comments here the better off we will all be, including you.

      Oh, and buy a membership.

      • you clearly prefer a world with no dissonant voices ( your name also suggests that)? We should just accept the world “as it is” and whatever our great leaders (or as you would put it “organs of state power”) say, because our voice doesn’t matter and will never matter?

        What you said in this post is exactly why I speak up and everyone else should speak up.

      • Robert Johnson

        I disagree, I come to Macrobusiness specifically to read DoctorX’s comments. The quality of analysis is much better than any Australian media.

        • I am GrootMEMBER

          It isn’t “analysis” when Gigi only seeks out that information which reinforces an existing bias. I would appreciate the contributions if there was a genuine attempt at balance. The ‘evidence’ provided has been refuted by others on numerous occasions, yet the opposing material is frequently lambasted or ignored in favour of moving on to yet another cherry-picked piece of information.

          More delusional than this is the idea that this individual has some unique insight into the situation that is not available to numerous exceptionally qualified experts in the field who hold countervailing views. Gigi is no better than the stopped clock which is correct twice a day.

          Even if Gigi is eventually proven to be more or less sound in their viewpoint, they are in truth nothing better than the forecaster who forecasts loud and forecasts often.

          • So let me get this clear: you think that a genuine balance in opinion is achieved by everyone having a balanced opinion? LOL
            That’s one of the dumbest things I herd. Where things work that way?

            The way internet destroyed pluralism and even a possibility of balanced opinions is exactly by doing what you want to see here on MB: you want an echo chamber blog or news outlets where you will come to reinforce your positions while pumping up self-esteem into a belief that you are always right.
            That’s why you and few others hate and want to ban any dissonant voice – because it hurts your feelings, suddenly you realise you may not be right.

          • I am GrootMEMBER

            I don’t want an echo chamber Gigi. I want objective analysis. Call that balanced or whatever you like. You take one side of the argument and prosecute it no matter how feeble your cherry-picked evidence of the moment is.

            Fortunately there are genuine experts out there who actually know what they are talking about, and who are generally prepared to admit to what they don’t know.

          • IAG,
            Thats a big call, one of the problems with this crisis is there are too many so-called public health experts who *haven’t* said “we dont know” and have instead relied on dubious ‘models’ etc. While at the same time the most basic of things quarantine, adequate non rationed PPE at hospitals, proper treatment of resthomes have not been taken care of or allowed to fail entirely.
            And yet if you point this out you get shot at by the lock down brigade, to whomn it doesn’t matter the reality or subsequent consequences but the answer is always lockdown.
            Just today, another silly one where people now have to pile into supermarkets before 8pm. So now per unit time per m2 there will probably be more people in there than prior. Throw in the threats of food shortage because of reduced processing plant capacity the govt. will have induced a % of the population to start panic buying again.
            It’s the same issue, they refuse to see second and third order consequences.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        “. State decision-makers have specialist medical advice that is the best available to assist them”

        And what superb job they’ve all done, just stellar. Amazing that all the curves look basically the same.

        “masks are a gamer changer. No wait 24h detention that’s the game changer”

        BTW China nor Taiwan have had the Italian lineage.

      • Tassie TomMEMBER

        Nick off back to China Jim. We should never have granted you a student visa in the first place, you CCP Operative.

    • When did it double? Current 7 day average is 503 – it reached half this back on 16 July, it was half again on 9 July.

    • Farr’s Law.

      “Farr’s laws is a law formulated by Dr. William Farr when he made the observation that epidemic events rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern. The time-evolution behavior could be captured by a single mathematical formula that could be approximated by a bell-shaped curve”

    • Tassie TomMEMBER

      I’m loving your insightful posts doctorX. Please don’t let the commie trolls chastising you stop you.

        • I am GrootMEMBER

          Making QLD sport central feels like a political move that doesn’t seem too bright. Particularly given the oblivious self-serving attitudes we’ve seen from some of the participants.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      There is a lot of research saying that infection on flights doesn’t happen due to the air filter on planes, (mostly put forward by the airline industry, I might add). This will be an important test to see if that assertion is correct.

      • Banana ManMEMBER

        Um, yeah. Nah. Talked to a gent the other day whose son works cleaning planes, he was laughing about ‘deep cleaning’ – the airline industry hasn’t changed any practices. But yes, they do have HEPA filters, how much they work is debatable, as aircraft don’t have social distancing, crammed like sardines as like the days of yore. It’s still just the flu but I kinda liked qld without the lockdowns.

        • HEPA is pretty good, and the rating is done off the most difficult particle size to capture, normally 0.3um. Cabin air settings can be adjusted to maximise the air changes.
          Not sure about the specific airflow dynamics in an aircraft but I would be surprised if the setup isn’t designed to deliver fresh air from above and extract from floor level.
          Far better than what we see down in commercial buildings, and probably even hospitals (outside of the deliberately controlled environments).

  8. BoomToBustMEMBER

    In Vic they just locked people for 6 weeks of not being able to renovate, prepare to sell, put your house on the market or sell it. This has reduced the option to move by 6 weeks and added to the ticking time bomb that is the end of JS / JK

  9. Why aren’t the essential workers getting DoleHider on top of their wage? Hardly fair what is happening. FUBAR