The Housing Industry Association (HIA) has released a dire forecast for dwelling commencement.
According to the HIA, dwelling commencements are forecast to slump to a 13-year low of 133,010 by June 2022, down a whopping 58% from the June 2018 peak:
As usual, the HIA has called for a big ramp-up in immigration to backfill demand:
“Prior to COVID-19, population growth had already fallen well below expectations as overseas migration and the natural rate of population growth fell. Left unchecked, this will lead to more subdued building activity over the decade ahead,” stated HIA’s Chief Economist, Tim Reardon…
“Adding to this structural decline in population growth, the contraction in migration due to COVID-19, will further impede building activity over the decade,” added Mr Reardon…
“Due to this slower rate of population growth, we now expect starts to be around 172,000 by 2030, compared with 190,000 starts in our previous long term forecasts. For comparison, in 2016, new home starts peaked at 234,000. This record number appears likely to be unparrelled for more than a decade”…
“Population growth and the subsequent demand for housing was driving economic growth in Victoria prior to COVID-19. The uncertainty around future migration activity is a greater risk to the long-term outlook for Victoria, than in other states,” added [HIA’s Executive Director – Victoria, Fiona Nield]…
“Population growth in Victoria has slowed in recent years, already falling well below expectations as overseas migration was constrained and the natural rate of population growth fell. Adding to this, the contraction in migration due to COVID-19, means that population growth will be slower than expected…
“This slower rate of population growth will weigh on the recovery of the economy and new home starts over the decade…
Obviously, ramping-up immigration would drive-up the cost of housing, worsen infrastructure bottlenecks and congestion, and force more people to live in high-rise slums.
Mass immigration led development is the ultimate Ponzi scheme. Sure, it benefits the property industry, which privatises the gains. However, the costs are socialised on the incumbent population, which has to fund the increasing infrastructure needs (e.g. power, water, transport, social and recreation facilities, etc), in addition to suffering the downsides via worsening congestion, being jammed into defective high-rise slums, and lower wages.
Ultimately, a Ponzi scheme is no way to apply government policy for the good of the people.
Australia’s housing industry should meet the needs of the community, not the other way round.
