Australia’s population to swell regardless of COVID-19

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A group of researchers have modelled the impact of COVID-19 on Australia’s future population. They find that Australia’s population will still swell to nearly 32 million people by 2040 even if immigration “plummets to zero in 2020-21 and takes eight years to return to the long-run average”:

Our new modelling shows that under a worst-case scenario, Australia will be 1.4 million people – or 4% – smaller in 2040, than if COVID-19 had not happened.

This is largely driven by a massive reduction in international migration…

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.