Why Australia should go for COVID-19 elimination

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The ABC has done an excellent report debating whether Australia should copy New Zealand, South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania in aiming for COVID-19 elimination.

Life in New Zealand, for example, has for all intents and purposes returned to normal, with the exception of international travel. Accordingly, their economy has bounced back hard.

My view is that elimination, provided it is coupled with stringent quarantine for returned residents, is far better than aiming for suppression, which necessarily means rolling economic lockdowns and the associated economic carnage.

That said, elimination can only be successful with effective quarantining of returning residents. As Melbourne has showed, failure in this area necessarily means importing the virus back into the community.

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To eliminate this risk, quarantine periods should be extended to 18 days (to add an extra buffer), housed in the regions away from populated areas, performed by highly trained (and well paid) staff, and include frequent and rigorous testing.

Being an island nation, effective quarantine is Australia’s number one defence against COVID-19. This is where the greatest emphasis and resources should be placed.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.